Greek Government Collapses - Snap General Election Called

gesler

Icepick wrote: »

Hope they default quick enough to sober up people cheering for money tree socialists.... and to snap a bargain in the summer. Greek Islands are fabulous.

Money tree? clap trap with as much value to this thread as the imaginary political philosophy that breeds sh1t talk like that.

Default will never happen as the contagion would engulf not just the Euro states, but sterling and as such the London inc would suffer (and who runs the city?)


Oh and how do you think the Greeks would be removed from the euro currency? Technically this is a mine field, the amount of work that would have to go into re negotiating all the treaties put in place to have a single currency would take a generation and ruin the euro for 20 years.

Eugene Norman

Icepick wrote: »

Hope they default quick enough to sober up people cheering for money tree socialists.... and to snap a bargain in the summer. Greek Islands are fabulous.

If people try and get a bargin then, of course, that's a capital inflow. Not that Islands are going to sell to anybody but millionaires. Greeks new currency will fall, if that exit happens, but eventually investors pile in because things are cheap. Or relatively cheap. And it stabilises.

hmmm

gesler wrote: »

Oh and how do you think the Greeks would be removed from the euro currency?

When the Greek banking system runs out of funds the Greeks will be in a hurry to remove themselves.

You also misunderstand how the big trading companies make money. They love volatility because that's when trades (and profits) are made. They'd be more than happy to see a Greek default.

Icepick

gesler wrote: »

Money tree? clap trap with as much value to this thread as the imaginary political philosophy that breeds sh1t talk like that.

Default will never happen as the contagion would engulf not just the Euro states, but sterling and as such the London inc would suffer (and who runs the city?)


Oh and how do you think the Greeks would be removed from the euro currency? Technically this is a mine field, the amount of work that would have to go into re negotiating all the treaties put in place to have a single currency would take a generation and ruin the euro for 20 years.

I said I would welcome their default.
Reading comprehension, work on it.

For Reals

Icepick wrote: »

Hope they default quick enough to sober up people cheering for money tree socialists.... and to snap a bargain in the summer. Greek Islands are fabulous.

Icepick wrote: »

I said I would welcome their default.
Reading comprehension, work on it.

To respond at this level; The other option is to keep the taxpayers as the 'money tree' for international financiers with no particular national allegiance?

Icepick

For Reals wrote: »

To respond at this level; The other option is to keep the taxpayers as the 'money tree' for international financiers with no particular national allegiance?

What money tree? Greece is broke and private bondholders were burned a long time ago.

conorh91

Sand wrote: »

demanded Ireland receive the benefit of any deal Greece secures for itself. Pathetic.

Where was that 'demand' made?

Noonan's recent comments suggest that he is unclear as to the nature of the Greek demands, so I don't see how he can be accused of seeking the same deal.

Perhaps you're thinking of Simon Coveney's comments last week, which were immediately and publicly rebuked by Noonan himself.

Sand

conorh91 wrote: »

Where was that 'demand' made?

Noonan's recent comments suggest that he is unclear as to the nature of the Greek demands, so I don't see how he can be accused of seeking the same deal.

Perhaps you're thinking of Simon Coveney's comments last week, which were immediately and publicly rebuked by Noonan himself.

Oh yeah, Noonan said the government hadn't decided yet. That certainly put Coveney back in his box.

Please, every concession Ireland has earned from the EU has been won by the Greeks. Noonan is just reacting to the very predictable grumbling from the Eurozone, Ireland be along with its begging bowl if Greece secures anything additional.

conorh91

Sand wrote: »

Please, every concession Ireland has earned from the EU has been won by the Greeks.

'Please' what?

This statement has nothing to do with the claim you made regarding Irish demands for parity.

Much to the chagrin of many people, Ireland is moving in a totally different direction to Greece. Many of the 'benefits' which have been uniquely bestowed on Greece were not in our interests to 'demand'.

I don't see why that should change. I don't see any evidence that it has changed.

Sand

conorh91 wrote: »

'Please' what?

This statement has nothing to do with the claim you made regarding Irish demands for parity.

Much to the chagrin of many people, Ireland is moving in a totally different direction to Greece. Many of the 'benefits' which have been uniquely bestowed on Greece were not in our interests to 'demand'.

I don't see why that should change. I don't see any evidence that it has changed.

Please, the pretence that Ireland wouldn't be clamouring for similar benefits if offered to Greece isn't credible and is not in tune with what Irish governments have done for the past 8 years: let the Greeks do the fighting, then show up when the rewards are being doled out. Coveney isn't running rogue, he is simply being too honest. Noonan didn't rule out Coveney's position as you claimed: he simply declined to confirm or deny. Noonan is many things, but you could never accuse him of being too honest.

As for the totally different directions: Greece is running a primary budget surplus, same as Ireland. Greece is paying roughly the same as Ireland to service its debt. I'm not seeing the entirely different directions. What I see is one government focused on achieving prosperity, and another government focused on claiming to be prosperous.

Syriza's positions don't appear so radical. They've declared their interests in tackling tax evasion and corruption so criticised by posters here. We have a Troika economic plan which has vested immense economic collapse *and* increased debt on the Greeks. That's a failure by all measures: both in terms of growth and confronting the debt. Continuing that plan is either stupid, or malevolent. Greece is running a primary budget surplus, it intends to continue to do so: Syriza's view is to give *some* weight to actually growing the Greek economy which might do more to deal with the debt issue. Grow GDP, and any given debt figure becomes more manageable. Syriza are actually being pretty sensible in their views, the extremists are on the German side of the table.

What's utterly bemusing about this from an Irish perspective is how short sighted the Irish government position is. Irish interests and the interests of creditor, mercantile nations like Germany are opposed. The ECB u-turn that has massively benefited Ireland since 2012 is bitterly opposed by Germany. You cant pretend away 120%+ debt to GDP ratios. Any Eurozone policy shift that favours growth is to our benefit. We ought to be favouring it. If the markets are backing Ireland, it ought to give us increased freedom to back ourselves...but we are failing to do so. And worse, we are actively working against our own interests.

Scofflaw

gesler wrote: »

Money tree? clap trap with as much value to this thread as the imaginary political philosophy that breeds sh1t talk like that.

Default will never happen as the contagion would engulf not just the Euro states, but sterling and as such the London inc would suffer (and who runs the city?)


Oh and how do you think the Greeks would be removed from the euro currency? Technically this is a mine field, the amount of work that would have to go into re negotiating all the treaties put in place to have a single currency would take a generation and ruin the euro for 20 years.

Icepick wrote: »

I said I would welcome their default.
Reading comprehension, work on it.

Yellow badge for each of you - gesler, that's an unnecessarily aggressive and provocative post. If you call what someone says "sh1t talk" you can except an equivalent response.

Icepick, you should know better than to respond that way.

moderately,
Scofflaw

Mr.Micro

Greece, does not intend to pay back the debts owed, it just cannot, IMO. It is posturing like it holds trump cards. What is the point at throwing more money at it, just to push the inevitable down the road a bit, again?The euro will continue to suffer with Greece still attached to the Euro via any extension loan, or whatever. Let it go its own way and the eurozone will take the hit now. It's better than, continuing to pretend that Greece will come round and pay up and get real. What a mess.

jimmycrackcorm

Sand wrote:

Sounds like the Troika seriously overreached in the negotiations today. The Greeks were never going to sign off on that.

Restating the existing position is hardly overreaching.

Sand wrote:

I see our snivelling leadership in Ireland have on the one hand come out against any sort of negotiation for Greece, but have on the other hand demanded Ireland receive the benefit of any deal Greece secures for itself. Pathetic.

Stating the logical conclusion to an illogical demand is not exactly sniveling.

dlouth15

Reading some of the posts here, I think a lot of people wrongly believe that Greece is trying to renague on its existing commitments in these negotiations. That is not the case.

The existing arrangement with the Troika runs out at the end of this month. What is being negotiated is under what terms a new agreement (if any) will be made. Germany wants what is close to a continuation of the existing arrangement. Greece wants what they have called a bridging arrangement to give them time to negotiate a better long term deal.

Regardless of which position one might take, Greece are fully entitled to negotiate future agreements.

dlouth15

Interesting day today. The ECB will rule on whether to continue ELA to Greek banks. They will have to do this in the absence of any application from Greece. It was believed that Greece were going to submit their application today but now it turns out that it won't be until at least tomorrow.

For Reals

Icepick wrote: »

What money tree? Greece is broke and private bondholders were burned a long time ago.

This Money tree...

Icepick wrote: »

Hope they default quick enough to sober up people cheering for money tree socialists.... and to snap a bargain in the summer. Greek Islands are fabulous.

Using the idea that people expect something for nothing as an alternative to being used as interest slaves for an international finance cartel is scam politics at it's most pathetic.

Godge

For Reals wrote: »

This Money tree...



Using the idea that people expect something for nothing as an alternative to being used as interest slaves for an international finance cartel is scam politics at it's most pathetic.

i have estimated on another thread with links that forgiving Greek debt would mean 2% a year on VAT for three years for all EU countries. Are you willing to pay that?

conorh91

Sand wrote: »

Please, the pretence that Ireland wouldn't be clamouring for similar benefits if offered to Greece isn't credible and is not in tune with what Irish governments have done for the past 8 years

Like Greek PSI?

The present Government didn't 'demand' a debt haircut in 2011-2 when the Greeks got theirs. Why would it start demanding one in 2015 when Ireland's situation has improved considerably?

Please.

dlouth15

dlouth15 wrote: »

Interesting day today. The ECB will rule on whether to continue ELA to Greek banks. They will have to do this in the absence of any application from Greece. It was believed that Greece were going to submit their application today but now it turns out that it won't be until at least tomorrow.

Further to this.

BBC: ECB offers Greek banks extra €3.3bn emergency cash

The €3.3bn increase in the so-called Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA) is critical for Greece's banks.

Depositors have been taking savings out of the country, depleting the banks' access to cash to lend.

However, the Greek central bank is said to have requested an additional €10bn of emergency funding.

The ECB had already raised the amount available to Greek banks by €5bn to about €65bn last week.

The deal will give Athens breathing space to negotiate a loan deal with its European creditors.

ninty9er

Spotted this thread on my homepage for the first time and thought sense had prevailed, well, let's give it 6 weeks.

BoJack Horseman

dlouth15 wrote: »

The deal will give Athens breathing space to negotiate a loan deal with its European creditors.

How?

The ELA is not related to the national debt.
And 3.3bn amounts to about a week of Syriza induced capital flight.

Not really "breathing space".

dlouth15

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

How?

The ELA is not related to the national debt.
And 3.3bn amounts to about a week of Syriza induced capital flight.

Not really "breathing space".

That was a quote from the BBC article. I presume they mean compared to if the ECB cut off ELA.

BoJack Horseman

dlouth15 wrote: »

That was a quote from the BBC article. I presume they mean compared to if the ECB cut off ELA.

Aah, OK, it wasn't in quote tags.

Its still wrong though, ELA, as things stand, has nothing to do with national debt.

dlouth15

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

Aah, OK, it wasn't in quote tags.

Its still wrong though, ELA, as things stand, has nothing to do with national debt.

I'll make quotes from articles a bit clearer in future to avoid confusion.

For Reals

Godge wrote: »

i have estimated on another thread with links that forgiving Greek debt would mean 2% a year on VAT for three years for all EU countries. Are you willing to pay that?

A different argument. But No, I wouldn't enjoy that. Not at all, I'd be on to Joe!
Are we talking Greek debt or international investors who lost money through Greek banks and want paying from the Greek taxpayer?

I love seeing the aul' pro-IW, hang Murphy brigade on the unquestioning side of international money cartels. Nothing is 'just the way it is'.

Quin_Dub

For Reals wrote: »

A different argument. But No, I wouldn't enjoy that. Not at all, I'd be on to Joe!
Are we talking Greek debt or international investors who lost money through Greek banks and want paying from the Greek taxpayer?

I love seeing the aul' pro-IW, hang Murphy brigade on the unquestioning side of international money cartels. Nothing is 'just the way it is'.

Greece owes pretty much nothing to Banks/investors - There are no Bondholders to burn here..

It's all Greek Government borrowings, which they used to get elected for the last 30 years...

For Reals

Quin_Dub wrote: »

Greece owes pretty much nothing to Banks/investors - There are no Bondholders to burn here..

It's all Greek Government borrowings, which they used to get elected for the last 30 years...

It's a little more complex than running too many ads on the radio.

Godge

For Reals wrote: »

A different argument. But No, I wouldn't enjoy that. Not at all, I'd be on to Joe!
Are we talking Greek debt or international investors who lost money through Greek banks and want paying from the Greek taxpayer?

I love seeing the aul' pro-IW, hang Murphy brigade on the unquestioning side of international money cartels. Nothing is 'just the way it is'.

The Greeks owe their money to the EU/IMF, guaranteed by the other member states. If they default, the European taxpayer will have to pick up the tab.

dlouth15

Analysis of grexit both on Greece and also the Eurozone from Wolfgang Münchau in the FT. It is from the 1st Feb which seems a long time ago with events moving fast, but the basic analysis would still be the same.

extract:

The predominant German view is that Grexit would be a calamity for Greece, a minor shock for the eurozone and a non-event for the global economy. Newspaper editorials call on Chancellor Angela Merkel not to give in to blackmail. Even Sigmar Gabriel, Social Democrat chairman and economics minister, says the consequences of Grexit can be contained.

He could not be more wrong. In fact, I believe that the consequences of Grexit are likely to be as damaging to the eurozone as they would be to Greece itself. Those who play down risks tend to be good at adding up numbers but not at grasping the complex dynamics of a default on such a scale.

We should recall that US policy makers misjudged the impact of the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in 2008 for similar reasons. It was not the impact on those directly exposed to Lehman losses that mattered; what mattered were the vast global ripple effects.

If Greece were to leave the eurozone, the prices of shares and other assets would slump across Europe. A lot of people — and not only those with direct exposure to Greece — would be caught wrongfooted. At that point, investors will wonder whether the eurozone is still a monetary union or just a loose single currency regime with wide entrance and exit doors. They will immediately question whether Portugal is safe.

Have to agree with him on these points. It looks to me, however, that what Münchau calls "predominant German view" is one shared by a lot of people here. What I think is often forgotten, though, is that the German's generally aren't enormous fans of the Euro to start with (and don't really care if Portugal is next in line) whereas a lot of the people here supporting the German stance are.

Sand

The strong always find support against the weak easily enough.

That said, it appears a rather large U-turn is developing in the EU. Despite denials of any negotiation with the Greeks over the terms of the loans to them, the news is reporting negotiations are happening tonight. Surely some mistake.

dlouth15

dlouth15 wrote: »

Have to agree with him on these points.

I think he's wrong. An inevitable collapse in Greek equities is unlikely to have a major adverse impact on European equities, especially when abated by aggressive ECB asset purchases and the near-absence of non-resident private sector exposure to Greece. Or am I missing something in Muchau's thesis?

We dismiss Munchau at our peril, but I find it hard to make sense of his concerns.

Three years ago everyone - including Munchau - thought the partial Greek
default could lead to a partial Portuguese and Spanish default. But this was proven wrong. The 'extraordinary measures' were contained, and this time around, the diminished private-exposure to Greece and the ECB's new-found moxie would suggest that Greece even more of a 'special case' than ever.

Ren2k7

Ah yes, the old 'kick the can down the road' routine. I see US style politics are reaching Europe now. See you all in four months time.