NRNB Four Championship Races

Backstreet Moyes

Paddy power have gone nrnb on the Gold Cup, Champion Hurdle, World Hurdle and Queen Mother.

Anybody looking at any speculative bets.

Champagne Fever for the QM stands out to me at 8/1 with doubts over the top two if he turns up he will be short.

Rock on Ruby at 20/1 for the Champion Hurdle also looks interesting.

oPATCHo

Dynaste Gold Cup 20/1 NRNB looks a fair deal to me

Shemale

Rock On Ruby 20/1 Champion Hurdle looks a decent bet alright.

Powers dont have NRNB or Antepost for the other races on their site. Scumbags burnt me a couple of years ago with NRNB festival, Paddy announced it at a preview and I backed that night and when horse came out 2 days later they werent NRNB when Paddy announced it.

Backstreet Moyes

oPATCHo wrote: »

Dynaste Gold Cup 20/1 NRNB looks a fair deal to me

Looking at Sir De Champs but i doubt he will turn up he still hasn't had a run yet this season.

Gringo180

Didn't Harry Fry say he wanted to run ROR in the World Hurdle :eek: Madness.

oPATCHo

Nuts102 wrote: »

Looking at Sir De Champs but i doubt he will turn up he still hasn't had a run yet this season.

really like that horse, backed him when coming second to Bobs Worth

YoungKhalifa

On His Own should run another big race in the Gold Cup. If the trainer sorts his jumping out he could well win. Only for his jumping last year he would have won the Gold Cup and the Lexus. 14/1 seems like a good price

Nulty

oPATCHo wrote: »

Dynaste Gold Cup 20/1 NRNB looks a fair deal to me

I'm ready to be proven wrong but Dynaste will not win a Gold Cup.

Gringo180

Dodging Bullets in the QM for me. He pulled way too hard last year in the Arkle but wasn't beat too far. If they can get him to settle a bit better this year he has a big chance.

kalinisi

NRNB E/W Lucky 15! if i was forced to have a bet...

Champion Hurdle Jezki (love this horse)
Champion Chase Champagne Fever (could go ryanair)
World Hurdle Hurricane Fly (could go here if Jezki beats him next time at Lep)
Gold Cup Carlingford Lough (ran well in the lexus)

oPATCHo

Nulty wrote: »

I'm ready to be proven wrong but Dynaste will not win a Gold Cup.

He turns up, he wins :cool:

Backstreet Moyes

kalinisi wrote: »

NRNB E/W Lucky 15! if i was forced to have a bet...

Champion Hurdle Jezki (love this horse)
Champion Chase Champagne Fever (could go ryanair)
World Hurdle Hurricane Fly (could go here if Jezki beats him next time at Lep)
Gold Cup Carlingford Lough (ran well in the lexus)

I am fairly sure the NRNB is only on singles.

But Carlingford Lough is actually a decent shout for the Gold Cup.

Gringo180

You know its a poor Gold Cup when Carlingford Lough is getting a mention :pac:

jimjamcos

Pricewise puts up Artic Fire for Champion in tomorrow's post.

Dr. Bre

no way will rock on ruby fini ahead of TNO, faugheen or Jezki. for me that makes him not backable

Gringo180

Dr. Bre wrote: »

no way will rock on ruby fini ahead of TNO, faugheen or Jezki. for me that makes him not backable

He was only beaten a neck by TNO in his first start back over hurdles after that disaster of a year chasing. I think he will place myself, and wouldnt be surprised if he won it. What a game animal.

Dr. Bre

Gringo180 wrote: »

He was only beaten a neck by TNO in his first start back over hurdles after that disaster of a year chasing. I think he will place myself, and wouldnt be surprised if he won it. What a game animal.

if he's placed it would surprise me, if he wins I give up

Shemale

Gringo180 wrote: »

Didn't Harry Fry say he wanted to run ROR in the World Hurdle :eek: Madness.

He did, but just incase. Plus its NRNB :eek:

Shemale

Dr. Bre wrote: »

no way will rock on ruby fini ahead of TNO, faugheen or Jezki. for me that makes him not backable

Only 2 of the 4 have won a Champion Hurdle, and ROR has a second, to write him off is ridiculous especially because he gallops all the way to the line.

longshotvalue

ROR is still possibly he most underrated hurdler around, and always has been . Look at the silly prices he was available at for donkey races the last 2 runs, as i said at the time it was like finding money in the road.

On actual form he is behind Jezki, TNO (maybe but not much) and we have no idea at all how good or otherwise Faugheen is. He looks good but we just cant tell yet.

In my mind at the moment Jezki should be favorite really as the is nothing like actual champion hurdle form, especially given the ground. TNO looks a class horse but i think he may be better over 2m4, he was close enough 2 out last year but got caught for pace. ROR on current form is way overpriced at 20/1, i put him up at nrnb last week at 25/1 and i wont be swapping.

Gringo180

Have looked at that Lexus Chase again. Does anybody think Geraghty gives Bobs Worth a very peculiar ride? Out paced a bit 3 out but looked to be getting back into it jumping 2 out and its as if Barry isnt pushing him out fully coming up to the last?

BumperD

ROR has no chance of winning the champion hurdle. To do so, he'd be breaking every record around to come back two years later to regain his crown. He's very good but that's a little stretching it. If all ahead of him in the market don't make it sure even un de seaux and plenty more would give it a crack. For those backing him, your hoping a few drop away (which always happens) and he runs and he grabs a place. Not the worst bet 20/1 nrnb 1/4 the odds.

I presume pricewise went artic fire for his ante post selection tomorrow judging odds checker.

Shemale

BumperD wrote: »

ROR has no chance of winning the champion hurdle. To do so, he'd be breaking every record around to come back two years later to regain his crown. He's very good but that's a little stretching it. If all ahead of him in the market don't make it sure even un de seaux and plenty more would give it a crack. For those backing him, your hoping a few drop away (which always happens) and he runs and he grabs a place. Not the worst bet 20/1 nrnb 1/4 the odds.

I presume pricewise went artic fire for his ante post selection tomorrow judging odds checker.

Dunno how you can completely rule him out, he still travels very sweetly through his races, Henderson clearly thinks a lot of Vaniteux and ROR gave him 8lbs and a beating albeit over further but you need stamina to have a chance in the Champion. Sure people knock the form saying it wasnt Vaniteuxs ground but ROR is a far better horse on good ground.

I am sure people will also point to how TNO beat Vaniteux but the ground would have suited TNO more, lets not forget TNO only beat ROR (in his first hurdle race in over a year) a narrowing 1/2 length in April when ROR had his ground and we all know he is better at Cheltenham.

As its no runner no bet surely rule 4 would be applied when runners come out, must work out the over rounds later they could be mental

famagusta

Shemale wrote: »

As its no runner no bet surely rule 4 would be applied when runners come out, must work out the over rounds later they could be mental

No rule 4 if a runner comes out.

Backstreet Moyes

BumperD wrote: »

ROR has no chance of winning the champion hurdle. To do so, he'd be breaking every record around to come back two years later to regain his crown. He's very good but that's a little stretching it. If all ahead of him in the market don't make it sure even un de seaux and plenty more would give it a crack. For those backing him, your hoping a few drop away (which always happens) and he runs and he grabs a place. Not the worst bet 20/1 nrnb 1/4 the odds.

I presume pricewise went artic fire for his ante post selection tomorrow judging odds checker.

He is a past winner and runner up and as looked back to his best this season. He loves the Cheltenham hill and has far less to prove than others including the top 2 in the market. At 20/1 e/w he is great value i am surprised he looks to be aimed at the World hurdle.

CheltenhamJ

Does nrnb apply to ew or is it win only - if ew surely Jezki fantastic value , also very much in the On his Own camp at the prices

jimjamcos

CheltenhamJ wrote: »

Does nrnb apply to ew or is it win only - if ew surely Jezki fantastic value , also very much in the On his Own camp at the prices

Yep, applies to ew too.

BumperD

Nuts102 wrote: »

He is a past winner and runner up and as looked back to his best this season. He loves the Cheltenham hill and has far less to prove than others including the top 2 in the market. At 20/1 e/w he is great value i am surprised he looks to be aimed at the World hurdle.

He is regressing. His official rating will show that. Regressing horses dont win championship races at cheltenham. He's a tough nut on his day with ideal conditions but Father Time is catching up with him. There's a reason the trainer put him over fences last season and is considering the 3mile hurdle race as an alternative this year ie He has no chance of winning the 2 mile hurdle race. He could conceivably place if a few fall away between now and race day.

Regarding the others ahead of him in the market having more to prove, Jeski loves the hill and is a past winner and reigning champion, TNO has won plenty at Cheltenham ( including swatting aside vaniteux by a wider margin remember), hurricane fly ahead of him but doubtful runner, not sure he has a lot to prove etc. anyway, as I said, not a crazy bet nrnb nor did did I say it was not value but probably a moot point as he's a likely non runner in any event. You'll get your money back. All I stated is he has no chance of winning the champion hurdle in March. you can bump this come March and give me a royal lashing if I'm wrong ��

Gringo180

BumperD wrote: »

He is regressing.

Couldn't disagree with you more there. No signs of him regressing whatsoever. If anything I think he is a lb or 2 better than he has ever being. His rating only dropped because of his poor showing over fences.

BumperD

He has a separate hurdle rating to his chase rating.

Gringo180

BumperD wrote: »

He has a separate hurdle rating to his chase rating.

He was dropped 7lbs after his few races over fences. Then another 3lbs after finishing a head 2nd to The New One?? Handicapper is taking the piss, no way he is a 160 rated horse on decent ground.

mdwexford

Is this a serious discussion about whether Rock on Ruby can win the Champion Hurdle?

He's 10 and is obviously past his best. Better horses than him have tried and failed at that age.

No horse 10 or older has won since Sea Pigeon in 80 and 81.

Possible place claims if the race cuts up and the pace and ground suit on the day.

longshotvalue

mdwexford wrote: »

Is this a serious discussion about whether Rock on Ruby can win the Champion Hurdle?

He's 10 and is obviously past his best. Better horses than him have tried and failed at that age.

No horse 10 or older has won since Sea Pigeon in 80 and 81.

Possible place claims if the race cuts up and the pace and ground suit on the day.

Not really its just that he has probably a better than 25/1 EW chance of winning or placing in he goes. Most of the market is probably wrong at the moment as we have an unproven evens favorite who hasn't really beaten anything of note yet. Im my mind on good ground jezki is the most likely winner and probably should be favourite, but certainly ROR in underrated, as he generally has been most of the time.

mdwexford

Yeah well Faugheens price is madness even though I love the horse and have thought he was an Aeroplane since last year.

His jumping needs to improve because he won't get away with being slow over too many in the Champion Hurdle.

I agree past winners are generally the way to go and Jezki is probably the sensible bet at this stage.

Rock on Ruby didn't get enough credit for his achievements for sure and as a place only bet he has a shout.

FortuneChip

Nuts102 wrote: »

I am fairly sure the NRNB is only on singles.

But Carlingford Lough is actually a decent shout for the Gold Cup.

I wouldn't think it's singles only, it's not a special offer like an enhanced price or anything.
If you add them to a betslip it's hardly gonna tell you your forfeiting NRNB by placing a multiple.

skippymac6

Nuts102 wrote: »

Looking at Sir De Champs but i doubt he will turn up he still hasn't had a run yet this season.

He has had a set back and is being aimed at the Punchestown Gold Cup. Mullins said if he can't get him back for that in plenty of time, then he'll leave him off for the year.

Shemale

mdwexford wrote: »

Is this a serious discussion about whether Rock on Ruby can win the Champion Hurdle?

He's 10 and is obviously past his best. Better horses than him have tried and failed at that age.

No horse 10 or older has won since Sea Pigeon in 80 and 81.

Possible place claims if the race cuts up and the pace and ground suit on the day.

Yes, people get caught up with age too much, he is quite lightly raced for a 10 year old with 24 runs, The New One has 18 under his belt at 7.

At his current price he is very appealing, he has the form in the book, the ground will more than likely suit and he loves the track, he will definitely need a solid pace so he can pick it up a long way from home so I would
hope Garde La Victoire stands his ground so he won't have to try make all.

Faugheen has been very good this year, in his Neptune, he moved away quickly but didn't put it to bed as we might have expected so there is a bit of a question over the track for me. The New One got done for toe last year and took his sweet time to pass Captain Cee Bee. AFC is an odd horse, he looked like he would win with his head in his chest but got outbattled.

ROR almost got the better of TNO last season and beat the almost bombproof Hurricane Fly to win his Champion so even at 10 he demands respect.

I think Jezki is the likely winner but if ROR gets the ground and a bit of pace from the start until he picks it up I can think of far worse 25/1 shots. At the prices these are the pair I would be dutching, TNO and Faugheen far too short for my liking especially as they can be sketchy hurdlers.

Shemale

BET365 have gone NRNB the 4 championships race and are giving BOG.

hawkeyethenoo

rock on ruby wont be running in the champion hurdle. dont bother backing him hes 100% going for the world hurdle.

Shemale

hawkeyethenoo wrote: »

rock on ruby wont be running in the champion hurdle. dont bother backing him hes 100% going for the world hurdle.

Its nrnb so its no lose

corny

Gringo180 wrote: »

Have looked at that Lexus Chase again. Does anybody think Geraghty gives Bobs Worth a very peculiar ride? Out paced a bit 3 out but looked to be getting back into it jumping 2 out and its as if Barry isnt pushing him out fully coming up to the last?

Thought it on the day. The horse was basically given a race course gallop imo.

All the way down the back straight Geraghty seemed uninterested in following the pace. He knows better than me so maybe he knew the horse wasn't up to it. But was obvious is they had intention of flogging the horse with a tough race to find out.

He did jump superbly well on the day though and on better ground with a more aggressive ride i'd fancy he'll overturn form with the 7 ahead of him that day.

Backstreet Moyes

Shemale wrote: »

Yes, people get caught up with age too much, he is quite lightly raced for a 10 year old with 24 runs, The New One has 18 under his belt at 7.

At his current price he is very appealing, he has the form in the book, the ground will more than likely suit and he loves the track, he will definitely need a solid pace so he can pick it up a long way from home so I would
hope Garde La Victoire stands his ground so he won't have to try make all.

Faugheen has been very good this year, in his Neptune, he moved away quickly but didn't put it to bed as we might have expected so there is a bit of a question over the track for me. The New One got done for toe last year and took his sweet time to pass Captain Cee Bee. AFC is an odd horse, he looked like he would win with his head in his chest but got outbattled.

ROR almost got the better of TNO last season and beat the almost bombproof Hurricane Fly to win his Champion so even at 10 he demands respect.

I think Jezki is the likely winner but if ROR gets the ground and a bit of pace from the start until he picks it up I can think of far worse 25/1 shots. At the prices these are the pair I would be dutching, TNO and Faugheen far too short for my liking especially as they can be sketchy hurdlers.

I don't understand what your going at here what exactly did you want him to do. Once he popped the last he still powered up the hill and was not stopping.

Just watching it again at the 4th, 3rd and 2nd last flight he walked through them and was passed and with one slap he breezed on the bridle past them again. The only thing that can stop him is what;s in front of him.

Gringo180

corny wrote: »

Thought it on the day. The horse was basically given a race course gallop imo.

All the way down the back straight Geraghty seemed uninterested in following the pace. He knows better than me so maybe he knew the horse wasn't up to it. But was obvious is they had intention of flogging the horse with a tough race to find out.

He did jump superbly well on the day though and on better ground with a more aggressive ride i'd fancy he'll overturn form with the 7 ahead of him that day.

16/1 is tempting.

Shemale

Nuts102 wrote: »

I don't understand what your going at here what exactly did you want him to do. Once he popped the last he still powered up the hill and was not stopping.

Just watching it again at the 4th, 3rd and 2nd last flight he walked through them and was passed and with one slap he breezed on the bridle past them again. The only thing that can stop him is what;s in front of him.

He maintained the gap after the last, to be considering taking 5/4 about him he would have had to put some daylight, in contrast The New One took lengths out of Jezki and AFC but that was too little too late

Meath Centre Forward

I was very put off by Faugheen's jumping in the Neptune last year but there was an improvement at Punchestown and again there in the Christmas Hurdle, he was getting over them alright. He's not the quickest and he can land on all fours now and again but at least he's not crashing through them like he was in the Neptune.

I would be of the opinion the betting for the Champion Hurdle is not far wrong and I'm stating the obvious here but Faugheen is the most likely winner and The New One is his main danger. If I was having a bet, it would be the The New One but I wouldn't be going mad. His price is a bit more suitable for the 20 euro punter and he has that little bit more experience on his side. He's not the most eye catching hurdler either but in the context of the Champion Hurdle, the real selling point with him is the way he motored up the hill last year.

I felt last year's race was unsatisfactory given the build-up that preceded it. The race had plenty of incident and Jezki, avoiding it all, probably ran the race of his life. Again 7/1 or round that for him is not really doing him much injustice in my opinion.

Anyone backing Rock On Ruby will be sure of a return as Harry Fry on New Year's Day was unequivocal stating that he'd be running in the World Hurdle. He's a brilliant racehorse though with a brilliant record and I think if he did run in the Champion Hurdle, he certainly wouldn't disgrace himself but he lacks the profile of your typical Champion Hurdle winner and it makes more sense to step him up in trip for the easier race at this stage of his career.

jimjamcos

My view on Faugheen is that, while he's unbackable now at the price and has beaten no gr1 hurdler, he just visually screams superstar. He doesn't just beat horses, he pummels them mid-race and if fit and healthy on the day I think he jumps the last alone with the New One staying on behind, having been badly outpaced after the bend. A know bet race unless a bookie gets generous and goes 6/4 Faugheen on day.

sdoc13

jimjamcos wrote: »

My view on Faugheen is that, while he's unbackable now at the price and has beaten no gr1 hurdler, he just visually screams superstar. He doesn't just beat horses, he pummels them mid-race and if fit and healthy on the day I think he jumps the last alone with the New One staying on behind, having been badly outpaced after the bend. A know bet race unless a bookie gets generous and goes 6/4 Faugheen on day.

Fair chance of getting 6/4 on the day I would think. So competitive now someone may take him on that morning

nobody told me

sdoc13 wrote: »

Fair chance of getting 6/4 on the day I would think. So competitive now someone may take him on that morning

I was thinking that could even be bigger id say 2/1 on the day. I'd prob back at that price

stretchaq

Anyone no will Annie power make the festival cert for mares hurdle

jimjamcos

nobody told me wrote: »

I was thinking that could even be bigger id say 2/1 on the day. I'd prob back at that price

I'd bite their hand off for that price on the day! Unlikely for anything more than 20euro new customer promos I'd say

Francie Barrett

jimjamcos wrote: »

My view on Faugheen is that, while he's unbackable now at the price and has beaten no gr1 hurdler, he just visually screams superstar. He doesn't just beat horses, he pummels them mid-race and if fit and healthy on the day I think he jumps the last alone with the New One staying on behind, having been badly outpaced after the bend. A know bet race unless a bookie gets generous and goes 6/4 Faugheen on day.

Agree completely with that statement. The Champion Hurdle looks a completely one dimensional affair even at this stage. Faugheen the well justified favourite, The New One the most likely challenger and Jezki the defending champion, who will surely come on from mediocre runs in Ireland. Hurricane Fly won't be making it up the hill, not a year older from last year. Even if Faugheen implodes, the likes of Arctic Fire or Purple Bay won't stay with The New One or Jezki. Will only consider looking at one of these horses if a bookie does a concession, otherwise, it's a waste of time.