NRNB Four Championship Races

Shemale

Panrich wrote: »

Faugheen was campaigned up to 3 miles last year so the same comments could apply to him as to TNO.

Fair cop, forgot about that. Faugheen looks quicker than TNO though.

Hulk, Artic Fire was 1L behind Jezki this year but Jezki was beaten by Cee Bee last year and you could argue Artic is more open to improvement than Cee Bee. Either way the form isnt that far off his form last year.

Ruby blamed himself for Hurricane Flys first defeat, he and AP were working into expecting ROR to come back to them but it never happened. You can argue his class won his two, his first one looked a soft Champion but he beat ROR and Zarkandar by the margin expected on ratings. HF is a far better horse on easier ground and 100% at Leopardstown so I wouldnt be using that as a stick to beat Jezki with.

Anyway, we could discuss this til the cows come home.

I am a lot less impressed by TNO than I was last year where I though it would be between him and Our Conor.

Backstreet Moyes

Anybody think Beat That could be of interest for the World Hurdle. He has ran 5 times over hurdles. Three times over 2m4 beaten far twice and beat Champagne West by 10 lengths the other time.

He has raced 2 times over 3m both being grade 1's where he beat Cole Harden and then Don Poli.

He was well beaten over 2m4f behind Rock on Ruby a few weeks ago. It was his first run of the season over a distance that doesn't really suit.

Bookies have reacted by pushing him from 7/1 out to 12/1 and i think in an open looking race he has a big chance.

Mgoraf

I like Beat That but I'd have liked him to have had more than just the one run before the WH (and no course form) although you can't really complain when getting 12/1, it's not exactly a very strong field either. Good e/w bet there I think.

Why did he miss cheltenham last year?

Gringo180

HarshOstrich wrote: »

I had a watch there after your comment, with the jump at the last you never would of thought silviniaco conti would be out of first 3, it was a strange race with a crazy finish but I think I will go with SC as he looked liked the winner up until last 100 yards.

It was a very strange finish alright. Something seemed to spook Bobs Worth and SC in the last few hundred yards as they veered of line violently.

DylanAFC

No horse with Sam Twiston Davies on board will be winning any champion hurdle ever.

Johner

DylanAFC wrote: »

No horse with Sam Twiston Davies on board will be winning any champion hurdle ever.

Pretty stupid statement.

nobody told me

DylanAFC wrote: »

No horse with Sam Twiston Davies on board will be winning any champion hurdle ever.

Nonsense

Meath Centre Forward

The New One's biggest fault is his fiddly hurdling technique. He's not the most economical of hurdlers that's for sure. Indeed out of the top 3 in the betting, I couldn't say any are exceptionally eye-catching hurdlers. They've all mixed the good with the bad in the past.

In my opinion The New One has done very little wrong and should not be written off. Certainly he'll be bumping into strong opposition and his record of 0/3 in 2m Grade 1 races would lend itself to the theory that maybe he does struggle against the best at that level. I think it is a career shaping race for The New One. If he doesn't win it this year, he'll probably never win one.

My reading of his performance last year was that he was an unlucky loser. Without being hampered, who knows. Had he hurdler more tidily who knows. I don't see how people can praise Jezki for winning the race in a fast time yet The New One who was only half a second behind is blasted for not being able to get back into the race where he lost 4-5 lengths at one of the hurdles.

What concerns me about Jezki is his record this season. I appreciate all these suggestions that he wants be better ground, he'll be trained for one race but they are all excuses really. Whereas The New One is going into the race with no excuses and has a perfect 3/3 record this season, probably 4/4 after the weekend. Jezki will arguably be going there 0/3.

DylanAFC

Johner wrote: »

Pretty stupid statement.

Just an opinion my friend.

Backstreet Moyes

DylanAFC wrote: »

Just an opinion my friend.

Except you stated it as fact and it's still nonsense.

Huntley

The New One's biggest flaw is his total inability to change gear. They ran away from him going down to the second last once they quickened. He has always just galloped at a consistent pace. Visually it looks like he is quickening at the end of races, as it did in the Champion Hurdle, but in actuality the front horses are slowing. It is further pronounced at Cheltenham where he can just continue this relentless gallop going uphill. He has never had a turn of foot and never will. The level of hindrance this has on his chances of winning depends on the running/development of the race but it's still his most major flaw.

He was unlucky last year but he still would have been outpaced when there was a pace injection, the only difference is what position he would have been in when it happened.

Shemale

Nuts102 wrote: »

Anybody think Beat That could be of interest for the World Hurdle.

Not for me, the yard has been in awful form this season. I reckon it's between More of That and Rock on Ruby. If I was looking at a bigger priced selection than these two I would probably go to war with Cole Harden.

Shemale

Gringo180 wrote: »

It was a very strange finish alright. Something seemed to spook Bobs Worth and SC in the last few hundred yards as they veered of line violently.

There was a man with a cameraman in a green vest crouched down, really affected both Bob went sharply right and Geraghty over corrected and he then went sharply left and was left with no company.


http://imgur.com/pfF6tpU

superfurry1

If it comes up soft the fly could be a huge ew price at 14-1. He could surprise a few this year.

jimjamcos

superfurry1 wrote: »

If it comes up soft the fly could be a huge ew price at 14-1. He could surprise a few this year.

He's a champ but when Faugheen kicks, he'll be left behind. Regardless of ground.

Backstreet Moyes

Interesting Saphire De Reu is going back over Hurdles and entered in the World Hurdle but he is not priced up yet.

Just seen 12/1 on Sky Bet but what caught my eye is 30/1 on Betfair if he wins the Cleeve he will be fighting for favoritism, why did i get caught with having two Betfair accounts and get banned.

skippymac6

superfurry1 wrote: »

If it comes up soft the fly could be a huge ew price at 14-1. He could surprise a few this year.

The Fly needs it soft alright but don't think he could live with Faugheen to be honest.

The two champ hurdles he won both had soft in the going description. The track is probably not ideal for him either though but he deserves to go, especially if he wins the Irish champ hurdle this month.

superfurry1

He only needs to beat jezki for third place on soft would be a strong possibility Blue fashion could be interesting in the world 16-1

Shemale

Nuts102 wrote: »

Interesting Saphire De Reu is going back over Hurdles and entered in the World Hurdle but he is not priced up yet.

Just seen 12/1 on Sky Bet but what caught my eye is 30/1 on Betfair if he wins the Cleeve he will be fighting for favoritism, why did i get caught with having two Betfair accounts and get banned.

Interesting runner alright, think Halo was second when Solwhit won.

Decent bet for the Cleeve alright. I think More Of That and ROR have the World between them

Shemale

superfurry1 wrote: »

He only needs to beat jezki for third place on soft would be a strong possibility Blue fashion could be interesting in the world 16-1

If he beats Jexki he is first or second...

Mountainlad

Have Champagne Fever backed at 12s for the Champion Chase, would todays fall have any implications? Thought he travelled well but thought Don Cossack was going to have more at the finish.

It's not NRNB, I know the risk in the bet but felt there was a decent chance hed lineup up if Sprinter Sacre and Sire de Grugy didn't. I know it pretty much still hinges on that, dyou think he definitely would if they do pull out?

sdoc13

Mountainlad wrote: »

Have Champagne Fever backed at 12s for the Champion Chase, would todays fall have any implications? Thought he travelled well but thought Don Cossack was going to have more at the finish.

It's not NRNB, I know the risk in the bet but felt there was a decent chance hed lineup up if Sprinter Sacre and Sire de Grugy didn't. I know it pretty much still hinges on that, dyou think he definitely would if they do pull out?

Rich Ricci was talking about coming back to 2 miles after the race so fair chance he runs in it even if the others turn up.

Mountainlad

sdoc13 wrote: »

Rich Ricci was talking about coming back to 2 miles after the race so fair chance he runs in it even if the others turn up.

Yeah just read that there. Be interesting to see what happens the weekend with SS.

mailburner

jimjamcos wrote: »

when Faugheen kicks, they'll all be left behind. Regardless of ground.

Agreed

Cart

Shemale wrote: »

Not for me, the yard has been in awful form this season. I reckon it's between More of That and Rock on Ruby. If I was looking at a bigger priced selection than these two I would probably go to war with Cole Harden.

Well if u fancy cole harden then what about un temps pour tout pipes horse who trashed cole harden last year he,s 20/1

Cart

Huntley wrote: »

The New One's biggest flaw is his total inability to change gear. They ran away from him going down to the second last once they quickened. He has always just galloped at a consistent pace. Visually it looks like he is quickening at the end of races, as it did in the Champion Hurdle, but in actuality the front horses are slowing. It is further pronounced at Cheltenham where he can just continue this relentless gallop going uphill. He has never had a turn of foot and never will. The level of hindrance this has on his chances of winning depends on the running/development of the race but it's still his most major flaw.

He was unlucky last year but he still would have been outpaced when there was a pace injection, the only difference is what position he would have been in when it happened.

Do u think he should set the pace then Huntley

NaiveMelodies

Watched Faugheen winning the Neptune again there.
Incredible performance to win like that considering he nearly took a few hurdles with him...
Could be wrong but didn't he miss a couple in Kempton at xmas?

I really think he's going to be so tough to beat but I'd have to wonder if he'd get away with a similar blunder or two in the CH, given the apparent depth of the race?

Also had a look at Rock on Rubys runs since his chasing exploits.
I really think it would be a sin not to run him in the Champion Hurdle.

Johner

NaiveMelodies wrote: »

Also had a look at Rock on Rubys runs since his chasing exploits.
I really think it would be a sin not to run him in the Champion Hurdle.

He's not entered in the Champion, he was always going the World Hurdle route.

Backstreet Moyes

Saphir De Rue into 8/1 in most places he could be pushing for favoritism if he wins the Cleeve.

superfurry1

Shemale wrote: »

If he beats Jexki he is first or second...

Not on soft, not so sure hurricane fly would beat the new one on soft ground or faugheen for that matter but i think he would beat jezki at Cheltenham

posturingpat

Nuts102 wrote: »

Saphir De Rue into 8/1 in most places he could be pushing for favoritism if he wins the Cleeve.

Noticed that. Absolutely ludicrous. Bookies/punters getting carried away because of connections.

Shemale

Cart wrote: »

Well if u fancy cole harden then what about un temps pour tout pipes horse who trashed cole harden last year he,s 20/1

That was in heavy and we havent seen Pipes over 3, Cole Harfens form looks solid this year and he was only 14L off Faugheen in March so he clearly improved and/or appreciated the better ground.

I am always wary of Pipes young horses at Cheltenham, serious performances in winter but not many transfer it.

paddyisreal

Shemale wrote: »

Not for me, the yard has been in awful form this season. I reckon it's between More of That and Rock on Ruby. If I was looking at a bigger priced selection than these two I would probably go to war with Cole Harden.

you can forget about hendersons horse form before christmas . Come march onwards, the winners will be flying in same as every other year. Anyway, his horses have been running at a 25% strike rate this season compared to nicholls who is 26 %. hardly awful form.

Shemale

paddyisreal wrote: »

you can forget about hendersons horse form before christmas . Come march onwards, the winners will be flying in same as every other year. Anyway, his horses have been running at a 25% strike rate this season compared to nicholls who is 26 %. hardly awful form.

I am really surprised his strike rate is that high, havent seen much racing this year but I dont recall seeing many winners of the bigger races. Peace and Co is the only winner that has stuck in my mind.

mr.jingle

NaiveMelodies wrote: »

I really think he's going to be so tough to beat but I'd have to wonder if he'd get away with a similar blunder or two in the CH, given the apparent depth of the race?
.

Theres very little depth to the Champion Hurdle, if anyone outside the top 4 in the betting is involved at the finish it would be disappointing.

Shemale

TNO really starting to look like 2nd fav for champion now....

jimjamcos

Well lads, what are the opinions in today's events? I'd be happy With Sprinters run, he ran all over them before blowing up and Geraghty, always honest with his views, couldn't hide his delight after from what I seen. Think 7/2 is a very fair price for him now and would much rather back him than The New One for The Champion. Regardless of the ground, he jumped/travelled like there was a physical issue and STD seemed very downbeat afterwards

Shemale

I went in with the wheelbarrow with my Dodging Bullets, 5/2 NRNB Sprinter is stealing money, he won't line up if he isn't right and he just lacked fitness today. He looked flat when in the rear but lit up when he was moved mre prominent like he normaly runs. Delighted to see Geraghty shake him up, they must be confident his heart is fine.

TNO if anything is regressing, he had one alright win this year and the rest of the form is poor. Like I said earlier, he doesn't have the tactical speed, his hurdling under pressure is awful and the form this year is far worse than last year. Anyone backing him at 3/1 should go to the doctor for anti-retardation drugs.

nobody told me

Anyone that expected the new one to hack up today in haydock hasn't a clue about horse racing

jimjamcos

nobody told me wrote: »

Anyone that expected the new one to hack up today in haydock hasn't a clue about horse racing

Who said hack up? Anybody who thinks he jumped or travelled well hasn't got a clue

Shemale

nobody told me wrote: »

Anyone that expected the new one to hack up today in haydock hasn't a clue about horse racing

Anyone who thinks a horse labouring against nags on any ground is going to win a Champion Hurdle doesn't have a clue.

Shemale

Happy with my NRNB profile.

Uxizandre at 16's of Champion with cover of Sprinter at 5/2.

Uxizandre is still 16's which I find amazing, he took care of Dodging Bullets in April and again this season.

Mgoraf

Was DB first run of the season when he faced Uxizandre who was race fit. DB has clearly come on a lot from then and last season I'd back him to reverse form with Uxizandre.

krustydoyle

Anyone got an opinion on Kitten Rock in the World Hurdle?

Meath Centre Forward

The most disappointing aspect of The New One's performance was the way he jumped to the right, possibly indicating a physical problem?

As someone who was rating his chances highly before this, you'd have to think twice about his Champion Hurdle prospects after that. It was a workmanlike effort.

I suppose the one positive was that he was well in control at the finishing line. As well on a line through Bertimont and Purple Bay from November, today's race has a level of form similar to Faugheen in the Christmas Hurdle. Mind you that's a clutching at straws as visually there was no comparison in performance.

It will be interesting if they come up with an excuse for his performance or indeed his jumping to the right. He wouldn't be the first Festival winner to have disappointed on his prep run and indeed he went into the last two Festivals on a defeat.

Meath Centre Forward

krustydoyle wrote: »

Anyone got an opinion on Kitten Rock in the World Hurdle?

He'll go for the Champion Hurdle if anything and I would see him as a lively outsider. If there was a market without the top 4, he'd be one I like. An Arkle / JLT horse for next season though.

Meath Centre Forward

Sprinter Sacre's performance was good, and probably no more. I saw what everyone else saw and are saying .... didn't jump with his usual exuberance and Geraghty only rode him out with hands and heels and wasn't too harsh on him.

It's hard to know what sort of stance to take on him for the Champion Chase. He's entitled to improve on his first run after a year off but that doesn't always happen. Plus the competition will be far tougher in 7 weeks time. He's an attractive price on his old form but the evidence of today's race suggests he's not that horse anymore. But it''s early days yet and that could definitely change too.

krustydoyle

Meath Centre Forward wrote: »

He'll go for the Champion Hurdle if anything and I would see him as a lively outsider. If there was a market without the top 4, he'd be one I like. An Arkle / JLT horse for next season though.

Thought he was only entered in the World Hurdle but i could be wrong.
Backed it at 25's NRNB for that race

jimjamcos

krustydoyle wrote: »

Thought he was only entered in the World Hurdle but i could be wrong.
Backed it at 25's NRNB for that race

On today's showing, he wouldn't stay strongly enough for a World Hurdle

krustydoyle

jimjamcos wrote: »

On today's showing, he wouldn't stay strongly enough for a World Hurdle

Took the chance.. Hardly a pace maker in the champ hurdle now