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GW21 Captain Poll
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06-01-2015 1:55am#1I think I'll be going for either Hazard or Sanchez.
Best captain for GW21? 185 votes
Hazard0%Sanchez55%
![[Deleted User]](https://w7.vanillicon.com/v2/7218841e83b58ddf6174aa940b59b151.svg)
![[Deleted User]](https://w2.vanillicon.com/v2/240e12baadbef0248a8a694618b3009d.svg)
102 votes
Costa5%
10 votes
Kane22%
41 votes
Sterling2%
5 votes
Austin0%
1 vote
Van Persie3%
6 votes
Falcao1%
2 votes
Rooney0%Silva1%
3 votes
Jovetic2%
4 votes
Ings0%
1 vote
Benteke1%
3 votes
Fabregas0%Eriksen3%
6 votes
Other0%
1 vote
0
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Sanchez
Also depends on your ranking IMO. For the ones super highly ranked here I'd see no point taking such a risk now.Swiper the fox wrote: »I'd be the of opposite opinion, if I trust my judgement (as you should yours) then I'll consider this an opportunity, I still have Hazard so I won't be losing out big time, currently I'm favouring Costa but could still change.
About the bold part. I think it's a potentially dangerous false autosuggestion general idea. Take the Arsenal-QPR game for instance. And replace Hazard with Sanchez and Costa with Giroud. Sanchez got 10 pts and Giroud -2 so you're looking at a 12 pts shift if you got the wrong captain. Granted this won't happen often but when there's a 30% diff between captains you're into gamble territory. I remember people were paying tributes to the "balls" of the ones who captained Austin for his hat-trick (which I did) but he was pretty high in the FFS poll and the difference with the top choice was only just above 10% => http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=93514009&postcount=165
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Also depends on your ranking IMO. For the ones super highly ranked here I'd see no point taking such a risk now.
About the bold part. I think it's a potentially dangerous false autosuggestion general idea. Take the Arsenal-QPR game for instance. And replace Hazard with Sanchez and Costa with Giroud. Sanchez got 10 pts and Giroud -2 so you're looking at a 12 pts shift if you got the wrong captain. Granted this won't happen often but when there's a 30% diff between captains you're into gamble territory. I remember people were paying tributes to the "balls" of the ones who captained Austin for his hat-trick (which I did) but he was pretty high in the FFS poll and the difference with the top choice was only just above 10% => http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=93514009&postcount=165.
Has something been lost in translation?:p
If I pick Costa it will be because I suspect he'll score more points than Hazard. If I ever start playing the game any other way I'd rather not bother to be honest.
I'm still undecided, I'm one of Hazards biggest fans around here and I've had reservations about Costa from the beginning, I've said plenty about both when Hazard wasn't producing and Costa was earlier in the year, it's a very tough choice this week but I'll make it myself and won't worry about polls till after 11.30 on Saturday.0 -
SanchezAlso depends on your ranking IMO. For the ones super highly ranked here I'd see no point taking such a risk now.
About the bold part. I think it's a potentially dangerous false autosuggestion general idea. Take the Arsenal-QPR game for instance. And replace Hazard with Sanchez and Costa with Giroud. Sanchez got 10 pts and Giroud -2 so you're looking at a 12 pts shift if you got the wrong captain. Granted this won't happen often but when there's a 30% diff between captains you're into gamble territory. I remember people were paying tributes to the "balls" of the ones who captained Austin for his hat-trick (which I did) but he was pretty high in the FFS poll and the difference with the top choice was only just above 10% => http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=93514009&postcount=165.
I don't think Swiper worries about what the masses will do he plays his own game . I'd also pick who I feel is the best capt choice you have to back your own judgement.0 -
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SanchezSwiper the fox wrote: »But that decision was not "clearly wrong", Giroud was uncharacteristically sent off, Sanchez scored 10 points, Gaston Ramirez scored 13 points that weekend, was it wrong that I didn't captain him?
I don't think that what the masses are doing is ever the "right and only" thing to do, I think the masses are often wrong, Fabregas being the obvious example:pac:
I'm sorry to persist but you still didn't get what I meant. It's not the decision to captain Giroud which was wrong (beforehand we couldn't know, we can't predict the future :P) it's the idea that you won't have lost much anyway if you captained him rather than Sanchez because you owned both. That's all.
This is something I read often here when someone hesitates between 2 captains "ah it won't make a big difference because I own both anyway". Excuse my French (:p) but it's bullsh*t. The FPL statistico site shows that my vice-captains scored 60 pts more than my captains (and I do remember that my horrible autumn run (C) wise was mainly myself getting wrong 50/50 decisions). With 60 pts more I'd be in top 5k while I'm just inside 40k now. So it can make a huge difference if you get it wrong.
And just to be perfectly clear, I pay no attention to the masses. But I do pay attention to most posters here and to a few FPL-dedicated sites, FFS in particular. FFS is not a reflexion of the masses opinion. The masses don't follow these sites, they don't even know they exist. The 5k+ who voted this week for the FFS poll are certainly for the majority FPL geeks like us here. They're not the masses. I mean some posters here even subscribed to the paid version of the FFS site. I guess they didn't pay to have the masses opinon.0 -
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SanchezI'm sorry to persist but you still didn't get what I meant. It's not the decision to captain Giroud which was wrong (beforehand we couldn't know, we can't predict the future :P) it's the idea that you won't have lost much anyway if you captained him rather than Sanchez because you owned both. That's all.
This is something I read often here when someone hesitates between 2 captains "ah it won't make a big difference because I own both anyway". Excuse my French (:p) but it's bullsh*t. The FPL statistico site shows that my vice-captains scored 60 pts more than my captains (and I do remember that my horrible autumn run (C) wise was mainly myself getting wrong 50/50 decisions). With 60 pts more I'd be in top 5k while I'm just inside 40k now. So it can make a huge difference if you get it wrong.
And just to be perfectly clear, I pay no attention to the masses. But I do pay attention to most posters here and to a few FPL-dedicated sites, FFS in particular. FFS is not a reflexion of the masses opinion. The masses don't follow these sites, they don't even know they exist. The 5k+ who voted this week for the FFS poll are certainly for the majority FPL geeks like us here. They're not the masses. I mean some posters here even subscribed to the paid version of the FFS site. I guess they didn't pay to have the masses opinon.
Another way to look at the 60 pt difference in captain choices is that maybe you picked the so called safe captain choice rather than the less owned better option. This of course could be rubbish but it would be interesting to look back to see why you picked each captain each week.0 -
SanchezArgh... communicating on the internet (especially in a foreign language) can be frustrating at times (no offence at all Swiper I probably deserve most of the blame
). I feel a bit like Busts when he tried explaining his points hit theory now :rolleyes: :pac:...
First of all, you play the game like you wish and I certainly never will criticise your approach. Who would I be to do so anyway?Swiper the fox wrote: »I only wanted to point out that the fun in this game is going with your gut rather than following polls or whatever, I don't follow FFS at all, I like frisk the fixtures and I'll look at the team news but that's about it.
Admittedly but if you allow me to use a great english wording (we have no equivalent in French) I rest my caseSwiper the fox wrote: »Sorry to persist also but no, I still don't understand, everything you say could be reversed if I choose Costa and it turns out to be the right decision, all that was lost in that Sanchez example you provided was 12 points and it was a bit of an anomaly, Giroud was the form player of the two at that time.
. My point is indeed valid for both scenarios. If I follow your first statement "won't lose much anyway" then you "won't gain much anyway" which I believe is wrong.
My main point had nothing to do with own judgement, gut feeling or public captain polls. My main point was stating that the general idea that if you're facing a 50/50 captain decision it doesn't matter if you get it wrong since you own both players is wrong. And vice versa.
I captained Austin for his big points haul. My vice-captain was Eriksen. 15 pts diff.
GW4. I captained Sterling. 1 pt. Vice-captain was (supposedly doubtful) Costa. 17 pts. 16 pts diff.
Of course sometimes both my (C) & (VC) scored the same and it didn't make much difference.
But stating that because you own both it will not make much difference anyway is what I pompously called a "potentially dangerous false autosuggestion general idea".
To phrase it simpler I could say we have no idea since we can't predict the future. But for sure we can't say beforehand "nah it won't make a difference". Sounds like autosuggestion to me.
Hope I made it clearer now. 0 -
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Sanchez
In fairness I tried everythingIused2likebusts wrote: »Another way to look at the 60 pt difference in captain choices is that maybe you picked the so called safe captain choice rather than the less owned better option. This of course could be rubbish but it would be interesting to look back to see why you picked each captain each week.
. And at some point nothing was working...
What I do in general is make my own judgement first based on who I have, their form and fixtures. Then I'd have a look at FFS poll, FSA poll and opinions. If my captain is very low in the (C) poll rankings, I reassess (which doesn't mean I will change my mind). Maybe I missed something (e.g. the amazing runs some players have against some teams). Based on the opinions here, the odds, some interesting facts (e.g. A. Johnson scoring in bursts), etc... AND (of course) my ow judgement I take my final decision.
Over the years though, I found that FFS (C) poll is a great reflection of the best FPL players (C). I'm not surprised it roughly matches the FFF top 1k (C) as FHFC mentioned. I think it's a very serious guide we can follow if in doubt. And every time I warned/indicated it to boardsies it's precisely because I rate it very highly. But it neither means I follow it all the time nor that I'd consider one who doesn't follow it has to be taking a wrong decision.
The very reason I mentioned it in today's discussion is because the difference is huge and as I said I rate it highly. Just so that Swiper exactly knows the risk he could be taking. Because if Costa & Hazard score very differently, with 30% (C) diff, the rise or fall could be huge. I experienced it in a positive manner with Austin recently. I remember many people congratulating the "balls" of the ones who went with Austin and as I posted earlier there was only a 12% diff with Yaya (the most popular choice) and 3% diff with RVP (second most popular chocie). So again 30% diff is monstruous.0 -
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Sanchez
Maybe it's not as commonly used in English. In French we refer to it as "la méthode Coué" which means convincing yourself of taking the right decision even if you either know it's potentially a (very) bad one or if you have absolutely no idea how good or bad it is.Swiper the fox wrote: »Well I googled Autosuggestion and now I'm more confused than ever:p (a psychological technique that was developed by apothecary Émile Coué at the beginning of the 20th century)
For instance you go to your exams without having revised anything (let's say you went out drinking instead to make it more obvious) but you convince yourself there's a (big enough) chance you'll get your favourite topic and it'll be OK. Méthode Coué :cool:.
Or I could quote one of the most iconic French movie from the 90ies ("La Haine"). "This is the story of a man falling from a 50 floors building. At each floor he repeats to himself "so far so good" to convince himself it's all gonna be OK". That's (extreme) autosuggestion.
In the movie though, the bottomline of the story is that: "what's important is not the fall but the landing".
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