Cold snap Jan 10th onwards: Wintry Showers, Snow Accumulations for some

AnotherYear

Ian Fergusson(Meteorologist M.O) posted this on Netweather. Snow accumulation chart. Blue indicates very little or no snow lying.



"I can share only a past (now 24hr old) E4 prognosis, as not allowed to do so with current one (watch BBC for latest version). But you get the distributional idea we are running with (this prognosis to 00z Weds). I've cut the scale off, because we aren't running with the raw output on amounts and wouldn't want it taken literally. Ditto distribution nuances, not least as this isn't the current output!"

Also said they are with holding snow warnings until tomorrow.

Nabber

Never any approximations in weather

Iancar29

AnotherYear wrote: »

Ian Fergusson(Meteorologist M.O) posted this on Netweather. Snow accumulation chart. Blue indicates very little or no snow lying.



.

Heres the GFS P version.



And yeah , could a mod update the thread title , something along the line Showers turning increasingly snowy Monday night Into Tuesday.

NufcNavan

BBC long term weather had substantial snow showers coming right across most of the country on Tuesday.

ninebeanrows

NufcNavan wrote: »

BBC long term weather had substantial snow showers coming right across most of the country on Tuesday.

The EURO4 tends to over do things in showery setups, however snow is likely, although probably better chance of it lying at night.

Be interesting to see how far across the showers get.

Harps

Those snow accumulation charts are next to useless, they always far overestimate how much snow will actually fall. The whole of Ulster and Connaught was shown to have lying snow just 6 hours out on yesterdays chart and as we know that never happened so I wouldn't place any faith in them

Kermit.de.frog

Weathercheck wrote: »

The EURO4 tends to over do things in showery setups, however snow is likely, although probably better chance of it lying at night.

Be interesting to see how far across the showers get.

Shorter land track to the east coast and a stronger wind, bigger showers will help. Quite different to Saturday.

Iancar29

Harps wrote: »

Those snow accumulation charts are next to useless, they always far overestimate how much snow will actually fall. The whole of Ulster and Connaught was shown to have lying snow just 6 hours out on yesterdays chart and as we know that never happened so I wouldn't place any faith in them

True true , I never go by their potential numbers but more so compare it to the normal precip charts at the same time-frame and compare with that.
The accumulation charts don't do well in knowing if any snow that falls doesn't melt on contact with the surface.

nacho libre

patneve2 wrote: »

With temperatures going as low as -40 at 500 hPa (this rarely happens when the cold is coming from the west) there should be a lot of instability and widespread accumulations a km or two away from the immediate coast (up to 10cm in the luckier spots in the NW-if charts stay the same).

yes very rare. i can only recall two other occasions when this happened.
If temperatures at the 500 hpa are actually that low, we can despite sea modification, at the very least, expect lying snow of 3-5 cm at lower levels in Connacht and Ulster.

delw

Iancar29 wrote: »

Heres the GFS P version.
And yeah , could a mod update the thread title , something along the line Showers turning increasingly snowy Monday night Into Tuesday but not for the east .

FYP

pauldry

the prob is if charts stay the same.

snow is the most difficult weather to predict in ireland due to the tempermental atlantic ocean. its usually a nowcast

e.g saturday - met eireann(morning forecast) rain sleet and snow (late morning) rain or hail (afternoon) rain hail and sleet)

Kermit.de.frog

18z Euro 4 looks tasty

00z



6 am Tuesday



12 pm Tuesday



6 pm Tuesday



Happy snow day.

Oscar Bravo

nice one! A visit to knock airport is a must Tuesday so!

space2ground1

The South / South East looks to be getting in on the action there. Some of the last really heavy snow we got in Waterford was from Irish sea streamers. I remember they weren't forecast, in fact a lot of the snow we've had in the past wasn't 'meant' to get as far as us.

Are conditions right for those streamers this time?

acassells80

Dublin looks to be included on those charts

Kermit.de.frog

As I commented earlier it's likely the east gets some snow showers as well given the land track is almost perfect and the wind will carry precipitation a long way inland. There are also small embedded trough lines in this flow that enhance activity as well. A mix of instability, wind speed and land is important in this set up for the east. By and large i'd be surprised if there wasn't snow showers reaching the east coast.

The action kicks off in the northwest tomorrow night.

Also Wednesday does not mark the end - more of interruption. GFS in particular showing an ongoing snow risk throughout the high resolution run which is to 192 hrs mostly in the northwest.

Nabber

Ground temps looking good, particularly for the mid lands, as expected.

dacogawa

Maybe, maybe, maybe...

john why

I miss snow, not one flake fell this winter:-(
in Dublin

Baggy Trousers

MT Cranium's forecast isn't exactly snowtastic, should I still expect snow in West Galway?

Harps

Baggy Trousers wrote: »

MT Cranium's forecast isn't exactly snowtastic, should I still expect snow in West Galway?

It's just a brief cold snap with Atlantic sourced air so don't be expecting anything memorable. Some will likely see some lying snow, others will no doubt be on here complaining that they got nothing, either way it'll all be gone be Wednesday afternoon.

There might be some snow on the leading edge of the front on Wednesday as well though this will just be a slushy mess that will quickly change to rain

ninebeanrows

Going by guidance from the EC and EURO4 i would expect a snow warning will be issued by Met Eireann very soon.

Guidance suggests no reason for snow not to fall to low levels from later tonight and tomorrow. Data shows that widespread accumulations away from windward coasts in Ulster and Connacht giving accumulatsions of between 3-8cm widely and over 10cm on the hills.

Even suggestion for accumulations for much of Munster and even a few cms into Leinster.

Looks good for ye all!

ninebeanrows

High ground in Kerry set for >10cms

munsterlegend

Weathercheck wrote: »

High ground in Kerry set for >10cms

Yeah latest update on met.ie mentions snow a lot. Would be nice to see a few showers even if it probably won't amount to much imby.

Baggy Trousers

munsterlegend wrote: »

Yeah latest update on met.ie mentions snow a lot. Would be nice to see a few showers even if it probably won't amount to much imby.

Yep

"However, frequent wintry showers will develop across the western half of the country as the night goes on, giving a covering of snow in places there before morning. Otherwise, sharp ground frost and icy stretches will develop"

"Wintry showers will become widespread and many will fall as snow, with some accumulations. "

Speak Now

Weathercheck wrote: »

High ground in Kerry set for >10cms

Not good news for Graces7, hopefully she'll have supplies in.

Kermit.de.frog

Yellow warning issued for the north from 18:00 - ice and snow overnight and through tomorrow.

Iancar29

Could a mod please update the title ?
Something like.

Snow showers for many Tuesday am - Wednesday am . Connaught , West Ulster and Kerry mountains most at risk .

I agree with weathercheck , > 10 cms on highground in the west and kerry too.


I think it would be an idea to lock the other snow thread just until this event is over too , to keep all chat in the one place

Kermit.de.frog

There will be snow showers before midnight in the far northwest and then in to north Connaught. That transition spreads quickly right down the west coast in the dark early hours and a real prospect of lying snow in quite a few places by morning daylight in the western half of the country though the usual caveat about direct onshore wind coasts.


Thread title not ideal imo. The risk extends well beyond Connaught, west Ulster and Kerry.

munsterlegend

http://www.met.ie/forecasts/regional.asp?Prov=Munster

not too often we have such a positive forecast for snow showers!