Strong Winds/Severe Gusts January 14/15th 2015

maquiladora

For what it's worth, 18Z NAVGEM has 10m winds inland at 50 kts.

Harps

German Hi-res ICON model looks very messy as well, could be an interesting front preceding the main event though with very squally wind and rain

The developing storm shows up nicely on this view..

munsterlegend

maquiladora wrote: »

For what it's worth, 18Z NAVGEM has 10m winds inland at 50 kts.

Is that not very reliable Maq? The south looks badly hit there.

maquiladora

munsterlegend wrote: »

Is that not very reliable Maq? The south looks badly hit there.

Yeah it's a pretty poor model. Hence, for what it's worth.

Hopefully we'll have agreement between the models tomorrow.

maquiladora

leahyl wrote: »

What strength of winds could be expected on the south coast?

Just too early to say. Maybe around 120-130. Could be a bit weaker or stronger depending on how things go.

Aimsir

gozunda wrote: »

No - the trees taken down by the violent gusts weren't weak but were generally healthy and mature. The absolute force if the wind snapped many trees in two or simply uprooted them. That event has removed much of the most valuable trees from the landscape. Sad to see so few left now ...

the ground was also very wet and the tree roots did not hold as well as they would have in dry/solid earth

Oneiric 3

Nabber wrote: »

Looks like a wizzard looking in the window

T'wasn't a wizard,



t'was the banshee.

M.T. Cranium

Another model resource coming into play would be RGEM, the higher resolution version of the GEM that goes out 48h and ends at 16W, but should be useful on the next two runs, at the moment the 18z version is showing the low rapidly deepening from 980 mb at 28W. What's key here is very low heights and a sharp trough in the jet stream phasing over Ireland during Wednesday. This is why perhaps the GFS is on to something with its very intense depictions. The low SST values in mid-Atlantic would allow this to occlude a bit faster than if the warm sector was being pumped full of higher moisture levels. I'm glad to see we have a level one in place already and would suggest going to level 2 if 00z models are all showing at least that level of wind gust potential (right now the GFS p is at level 3, the rest are a strong level 2 except maybe ECM closer to mid-level 2).

Somebody was asking about wind speeds for Cork and also for east coast. From the less dire models would say peak gusts 65 knots Cork and 62 Dublin. From the GFSp would say 75 and 70 (well into damage range) and peak gusts at more exposed locations 85-90. As you know you can double those and take off about 10% to estimate km/hr. Also while the track is being called more southerly (with reason) the entire country does get hit by the strong winds, this does not mean Ulster gets off lighter, just that the gradient is very strong from Malin Head to Kinsale. The comparison to the reconstruction of maps for 1839 is as follows: GFSp would come within 20% of that gradient, not quite as deep a low (the reconstruction says mid 930s rather than the old 918 figure that one used to see) but almost the same gradient. Also the synoptic pattern is broadly similar with the colder air in place 24h before storm time, and strong modified arctic high pressure over the northeast U.S. as I found in records from Providence, RI during the storm period. Indicates perhaps a similar evolution.

Tactical has given us a very good motto there, failure to prepare is preparation to fail, anyway we got through last winter's major event with some good advance warnings and so if this evolves the same way we should follow the same steps. Would say if you consider yourself knowledgeable and want to vote on level 3 status when the time comes, be on line around 1900h Tuesday, we will probably open up the discussion to that topic if there's a general feeling that it's coming in strong level 2 or worse.

RED L4 0TH

Thought this 850 hpa chart was worth sticking up as it shows the massive contrast in temperatures east of Newfoundland in quite a short distance for early Wednesday. This probably acts as a potent fuel for potential deep depressions.

M.T. Cranium

The 00z model runs appear to be converging now, would say the general idea would be more level 2 than 3, which is good, and a slight nudge to the north on average. Not far enough north to allow the south coast to escape from the level 2 wind gusts but far enough to make Donegal and Mayo appear more in the strongest wind zone now. As more slight changes may take place would not read too much into this, main thing is that we could probably go to level 2 on this advisory now. Timing while mostly overnight should include afternoon hours of Wednesday as the squally front will be very quick to race through ahead of the low.

Graces7

legomaniac wrote: »

I have a distant relative who lives in a very exposed coastal location and he is 84. Good health etc but lives alone so when we get wild storms I bring him up to my place as I'm well in from the sea. Last year the sea was crashing shingle and stones against his gable. He hates a fuss but if this storm is as bad as some forecast then I better evacuate him on Tuesday evening. But I will make that decision Tuesday morning. Many in the locality are talking about a big wind midweek. I missed the Met Eireann farming weather as I was out dosing some ewes. What did they say?

Is there room for one more? Plus two dogs and three cats of course;) Good for you by the way!

Graces7

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Nothing is certain but this looks quite a major wind event. Been going through the charts and what strikes me is how slow moving this storm is compared with the big one last Feb which peaked and did all the damage within a couple of hours here in Kerry. To my amateur eye this looks like blowing a stink for anything up to 12 hrs here on the Kerry coast, hard to know how long it will peak for and what kind of wind speeds but most likely has the potential to be damaging going by the present set up. High Tide here is set for about 23.30 which will probably coincide with the brunt of the storm Weds night although it will be a neap tide.Rivers are quite full atm although a good dry day here today so far.

Spent a few hours making the place secure today: took off wooden gates, tied down fences, weighed down anything that can move, have camping gas,lamps, candles etc on standby. Have a feeling we are going to be without electricity for a time.:(

Not being an alarmist but this may be one to be prepared for.

My job is pumping up the new air mattress and making up a bed on the floor downstairs... the trees are just too unstable now to risk...everything else is as it always is. A decade on a small bare offshore island made it second nature

Graces7

gozunda wrote: »

No - the trees taken down by the violent gusts weren't weak but were generally healthy and mature. The absolute force if the wind snapped many trees in two or simply uprooted them. That event has removed much of the most valuable trees from the landscape. Sad to see so few left now ...

Will never forget the approach to Killarney through Muckross and the national Park last year. Total devastation, row after row of trees down. The 4 trunk conifer that fell across my private lane here was a healthy and sturdy tree too.Let us not omit to replant please.

gozunda

Are Met Eireann playing it safe with the forecast on this atm? I can't find anything but a mention of 'very strong southerly winds'. At what point do they usually make a call on their warnings?

ninebeanrows

Looks like there will be a widespread gusts to 60/65kts

Where the wrap around goes is uncertain, but where it does there is the risk of gusts to 80kt

weisses

GFS is placing it more northerly again ??

maquiladora

A significant downgrade on the 0Z GFS. Despite deepening it to 945mb, it's now a smaller system that turns sharply north. The cold front passing over the country would still be windy for a time, but the winds from the main low itself would be confined to the northwest coast and wouldn't really be much stronger than the wind last night.



We'll see how things looks when it gets within range of the higher-res models later today.

maquiladora

WRF showing the windiest phase as the front passes over the country. About 10km/h stronger than last night for inland areas. Windy, but nothing exceptional at all here.

weisses

maquiladora wrote: »

A significant downgrade on the 0Z GFS. Despite deepening it to 945mb, it's now a smaller system that turns sharply north. The cold front passing over the country would still be windy for a time, but the winds from the main low itself would be confined to the northwest coast and wouldn't really be much stronger than the wind last night.


We'll see how things looks when it gets within range of the higher-res models later today.

Thankful for that if true ... Still not over the 12 February event here in Dingle

Strangegravy

Yeah, deffo taken a more northerly path on the latest charts, taking the stronger winds further north too. Still windy, but nowhere near as bad as it was looking. I'd still bring in the wheelie bins though...

maquiladora

Still looks stormy for a time for coastal areas on the ECM. There may be a downgrade for inland areas here but it's hard to tell with 6 hour intervals. Certainly no Feb 2014 style gradient pushing inland anyway.




Looks nasty for the west coast on the ICON. I have no idea how good/bad this model is though.

munsterlegend

maquiladora wrote: »

Still looks stormy for a time for coastal areas on the ECM. There may be a downgrade for inland areas here but it's hard to tell with 6 hour intervals. Certainly no Feb 2014 style gradient pushing inland anyway.


Thanks Maq. MT still thinks this track is subject to change so I suppose the afternoon models could change things again?

maquiladora

munsterlegend wrote: »

Thanks Maq. MT still thinks this track is subject to change so I suppose the afternoon models could change things again?

06Z GFS is a little further south. But similar intensity. Maximum gusts around 120-125 km/h on exposed west/northwest coasts.

munsterlegend

maquiladora wrote: »

06Z GFS is a little further south. But similar intensity. Maximum gusts around 120-125 km/h on exposed west/northwest coasts.

Yes I was just looking myself and thought it was a little further south. the precipitation charts look good for snow showers from tomorrow on though i'll believe it when i see it.

maquiladora

06Z GFSP is strong. 936mb. But the difference between it and the ECM is huge. I'd take this with a huge grain of salt. Model might have a bias for overdoing lows maybe?

Villain

GFS has performed well in these scenarios in the past but it is a little too far out yet, once we get into the higher res timeframe we should get a better handle on it.

Macy0161

Rougies wrote: »

Isn't that a good thing though? The weaker trees were taken out last year so there should be less damage from fallen trees if this storm is around the same intensity. That would be my logic anyway.

It would've been my logic too. However, Friday night brought down a few trees around us, including ones that appear healthy and weren't particularly exposed (i.e. the back line of a row 4 or 5 deep). Also, a few well established trees were brought down around the Vartry Reservoir - a bit more exposed, but obviously came through last year ok.

Baggy Trousers

It's weird but the winds last night knocked more branches and twigs down (I have lots of trees) than any of the storms from last year. For about 30 mins last night (around midnight I think), we got some severe gusts and I could hear stuff falling. Loads of firewood down now anyway.

ninebeanrows

GFS P looks fairly stormy for Ireland

Or very

dlb_cycles

well lets hope its always in our backs.. up up and awaaaaay