Strong Winds/Severe Gusts January 14/15th 2015

DOCARCH

Xenji wrote: »

Category 3 Hurricane hit in 1839, so yes they do affect Ireland.

Hurricane force winds can affect Ireland...but...we do not get hurricanes in Ireland.

Zack Morris

Shane O' Malley wrote: »

Been over this so many times before. Are you happy enough with Hurricane force winds?

Why would I be happy with that? There's nothing wrong with educating naive people.

Hurricanes are tropical storms, they lose their tropical characteristics when they leave the warm tropical waters. The sea temperature needs to be 26.5*C for them to maintain its tropical status.

Another thing, when meteorologists mention hurricane forces winds, they're talking about gusts. A hurricane/tropical storm is measured by its sustained winds. A tropical storm's sustained winds need to be at least 74 miles per hour to be classed as a hurricanes and their gusts can be much higher.

Xenji

DOCARCH wrote: »

Hurricane force winds can affect Ireland...but...we do not get hurricanes in Ireland.

Yes, I meant we had category 3 strength winds .

Zack Morris

Xenji wrote: »

Category 3 Hurricane hit in 1839, so yes they do affect Ireland.

Nope. Not a hurricane either. The gusts were category 3 strength, but hurricanes are measured by sustained winds, not gusts.

Zack Morris

NATLOR wrote: »

The OP was referring to what happened in the UK in 1987

I know he/she is. It's wasn't a hurricane. I suggest watching a documentary on tropical storms.

Zack Morris

Tactical wrote: »

Remenants of Hurricane Charlie.

Ok, not strictly a hurricane but it originally was...

It's probably the closest Ireland has been to a tropical storm in recorded history (I'll have to look that up). It should be noted that if Ireland was ever to be hit by a tropical storm/hurricane, it would be during Summer or Autumn, not during the coldest month of the year.

Shane O' Malley

Thanks for that Zack.

I feel so much better.

Oneiric 3

Zack Morris wrote: »

It's probably the closest Ireland has been to a tropical storm in recorded history

Not really.



I would think Hurricane Debbie back in '61 came much closer...


Map taken from:
http://cdn.intechopen.com/pdfs-wm/41035.pdf

AnotherYear

Zack Morris wrote: »

Nope. Not a hurricane either. The gusts were category 3 strength, but hurricanes are measured by sustained winds, not gusts.

A hurricane is an area of low pressure over tropical or sub-tropical waters, with organised convection and winds at low levels of at least 74 m.p.h. Hurricane Season runs from June 1 to November 30.

A hurricane can on rare occasions maintain Hurricane status as it reaches Ireland as Oneiric shows. Map below tracks of all known Atlantic tropical cyclones from 1851 to 2012



European wind storms can often reach hurricane status wind speed wise but aren't classified as such as they don't form over warm waters which Hurricanes do. Globally storms of this type forming between 30° and 60° latitude are known as extratropical cyclones

chilipepper

fred funk }{ wrote: »

Those big wet squids are very over rated alright.

Yes i was a bit bleary eyed this morning but it was still a damp squib

rsl1976

Irish Weather Online reporting a man has died in Antrim after a tree fell on his car.

M.T. Cranium

I think that when the red warning was issued, if it included Cork or Limerick counties it was because any part of them might come into play and probably nobody at met-E or here thought that level 3 conditions would materialize in Cork city or Limerick city. Personally I would not consider Limerick to be a west coast county but I suppose it is technically given that the northwest corner of it is on salt water. As for Cork, that part around Bantry is really more an extension of Kerry in terms of weather conditions so whatever one might be expecting on the "south" coast really applies from maybe Mizen Head east.

Now as to what level was really justified, the purist would say, if one populated location had level 3 conditions (and probably one or two did) then a level 3 is justified, but in terms of how an operational forecaster might view it, you would probably want a bit more verification than we got from this one and we should have stayed at level 2. I don't blame anybody and I am partly responsible for the level 3 setting, although we tend to follow the lead of met-E in these matters, with perhaps the sole exception of last winter's decision to go to level 3 ahead of them.

Anyway, it's somewhat of a 50-50 thing apart from the apparent Limerick letdown, we've got people in certain parts of Mayo and north Donegal saying yes it lived up to expectations, or so nearly that the difference was irrelevant, and then in general there seems to have been less inland penetration of very strong winds than model depictions were suggesting. It seems ironic that some schools were closed in unaffected areas and some were open in storm-hit areas, but that's the luck of the draw I suppose. Can anything be "learned" from it? Probably not, the storm did not quite utilize all of its potential given what it became from how it started out, and that's a good thing. This seems to happen more often than not and in general storms often slightly underperform relative to theoretical expectations. But I sense that some of this is due to banding issues that cannot easily be predicted, and to topographic factors that forecast users are in a good position to reason out themselves. One thing I noticed was that the Newport met-E station never showed very strong gusts so I assume it must be shielded from the southwest, as I've seen it showing similar gusts to Belmullet in both southerly and westerly gales before.

Anyway, it's on to the next challenge now, each one is different and requires a reset of the whole complex Boards forecasting machine which, after all, is a collection of various voluntary efforts that have no other co-ordination than mutual interest in the weather. Unlike Net-weather where you have an appointed hierarchy and defined roles, we seem to have evolved along more of a natural selection principle and will probably continue to do so. I like it this way, not looking to have any special status and my own thread lives or dies on its own merits, which keeps me on my toes. These group discussions will go wherever the momentum within the group takes them and "control" of them is quite weak although not entirely non-existant. I rather like that freedom of thought, have recommended it to my fellow citizens here but they seem to like groupthink more than you do. And that answers the question already raised about why I give so freely of my time to an Irish forum. I like free exchanges of opinion, without a lot of dark manoeuvres in the background by offended special interests. For me, this is an ideal rather than some sort of danger to be avoided.

Nabber

Thought i was in the politics forum for a second there.

Nice out lay MT

munsterlegend

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

I think that when the red warning was issued, if it included Cork or Limerick counties it was because any part of them might come into play and probably nobody at met-E or here thought that level 3 conditions would materialize in Cork city or Limerick city. Personally I would not consider Limerick to be a west coast county but I suppose it is technically given that the northwest corner of it is on salt water. As for Cork, that part around Bantry is really more an extension of Kerry in terms of weather conditions so whatever one might be expecting on the "south" coast really applies from maybe Mizen Head east.

Now as to what level was really justified, the purist would say, if one populated location had level 3 conditions (and probably one or two did) then a level 3 is justified, but in terms of how an operational forecaster might view it, you would probably want a bit more verification than we got from this one and we should have stayed at level 2. I don't blame anybody and I am partly responsible for the level 3 setting, although we tend to follow the lead of met-E in these matters, with perhaps the sole exception of last winter's decision to go to level 3 ahead of them.

Anyway, it's somewhat of a 50-50 thing apart from the apparent Limerick letdown, we've got people in certain parts of Mayo and north Donegal saying yes it lived up to expectations, or so nearly that the difference was irrelevant, and then in general there seems to have been less inland penetration of very strong winds than model depictions were suggesting. It seems ironic that some schools were closed in unaffected areas and some were open in storm-hit areas, but that's the luck of the draw I suppose. Can anything be "learned" from it? Probably not, the storm did not quite utilize all of its potential given what it became from how it started out, and that's a good thing. This seems to happen more often than not and in general storms often slightly underperform relative to theoretical expectations. But I sense that some of this is due to banding issues that cannot easily be predicted, and to topographic factors that forecast users are in a good position to reason out themselves. One thing I noticed was that the Newport met-E station never showed very strong gusts so I assume it must be shielded from the southwest, as I've seen it showing similar gusts to Belmullet in both southerly and westerly gales before.

Anyway, it's on to the next challenge now, each one is different and requires a reset of the whole complex Boards forecasting machine which, after all, is a collection of various voluntary efforts that have no other co-ordination than mutual interest in the weather. Unlike Net-weather where you have an appointed hierarchy and defined roles, we seem to have evolved along more of a natural selection principle and will probably continue to do so. I like it this way, not looking to have any special status and my own thread lives or dies on its own merits, which keeps me on my toes. These group discussions will go wherever the momentum within the group takes them and "control" of them is quite weak although not entirely non-existant. I rather like that freedom of thought, have recommended it to my fellow citizens here but they seem to like groupthink more than you do. And that answers the question already raised about why I give so freely of my time to an Irish forum. I like free exchanges of opinion, without a lot of dark manoeuvres in the background by offended special interests. For me, this is an ideal rather than some sort of danger to be avoided.[/

bantry bay more an extension of Kerry might not be welcomed by the natives down there.MT you may not be aware of the sporting rivalry!

Halpenny

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

I like it this way, not looking to have any special status and my own thread lives or dies on its own merits, which keeps me on my toes. These group discussions will go wherever the momentum within the group takes them and "control" of them is quite weak although not entirely non-existant. I rather like that freedom of thought, have recommended it to my fellow citizens here but they seem to like groupthink more than you do. And that answers the question already raised about why I give so freely of my time to an Irish forum. I like free exchanges of opinion, without a lot of dark manoeuvres in the background by offended special interests. For me, this is an ideal rather than some sort of danger to be avoided.

Thank you MT for all your contributions and to so many others who share their knowledge so freely here on boards.

SeaBreezes

Thank you MT and all who share their expertise on this forum. I follow it avidly and am a lot happier with over-caution in regards warnings. Living on the south coast in an exposed area it gives me time to take down the trampoline and get the place in order before the big winds hit. So, thank you again for your time, effort and expertise. It is very much appreciated :-)

weatherfiend

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

I think that when the red warning was issued, if it included Cork or Limerick counties it was because any part of them might come into play and probably nobody at met-E or here thought that level 3 conditions would materialize in Cork city or Limerick city. Personally I would not consider Limerick to be a west coast county but I suppose it is technically given that the northwest corner of it is on salt water. As for Cork, that part around Bantry is really more an extension of Kerry in terms of weather conditions so whatever one might be expecting on the "south" coast really applies from maybe Mizen Head east.

Now as to what level was really justified, the purist would say, if one populated location had level 3 conditions (and probably one or two did) then a level 3 is justified, but in terms of how an operational forecaster might view it, you would probably want a bit more verification than we got from this one and we should have stayed at level 2. I don't blame anybody and I am partly responsible for the level 3 setting, although we tend to follow the lead of met-E in these matters, with perhaps the sole exception of last winter's decision to go to level 3 ahead of them.

Anyway, it's somewhat of a 50-50 thing apart from the apparent Limerick letdown, we've got people in certain parts of Mayo and north Donegal saying yes it lived up to expectations, or so nearly that the difference was irrelevant, and then in general there seems to have been less inland penetration of very strong winds than model depictions were suggesting. It seems ironic that some schools were closed in unaffected areas and some were open in storm-hit areas, but that's the luck of the draw I suppose. Can anything be "learned" from it? Probably not, the storm did not quite utilize all of its potential given what it became from how it started out, and that's a good thing. This seems to happen more often than not and in general storms often slightly underperform relative to theoretical expectations. But I sense that some of this is due to banding issues that cannot easily be predicted, and to topographic factors that forecast users are in a good position to reason out themselves. One thing I noticed was that the Newport met-E station never showed very strong gusts so I assume it must be shielded from the southwest, as I've seen it showing similar gusts to Belmullet in both southerly and westerly gales before.

Anyway, it's on to the next challenge now, each one is different and requires a reset of the whole complex Boards forecasting machine which, after all, is a collection of various voluntary efforts that have no other co-ordination than mutual interest in the weather. Unlike Net-weather where you have an appointed hierarchy and defined roles, we seem to have evolved along more of a natural selection principle and will probably continue to do so. I like it this way, not looking to have any special status and my own thread lives or dies on its own merits, which keeps me on my toes. These group discussions will go wherever the momentum within the group takes them and "control" of them is quite weak although not entirely non-existant. I rather like that freedom of thought, have recommended it to my fellow citizens here but they seem to like groupthink more than you do. And that answers the question already raised about why I give so freely of my time to an Irish forum. I like free exchanges of opinion, without a lot of dark manoeuvres in the background by offended special interests. For me, this is an ideal rather than some sort of danger to be avoided.

MT I really enjoy when you too get involved in the discussion on the chat threads. We're so used to your terrific daily updates and when you join in these other chats somehow everybody sits up and takes extra notice :rolleyes:

As always thanks for the expert eye keeping us on our toes and thx to the others who give me a huge amount of education with their expertise?

W.

JONJO THE MISER

Everyone i was talking to are going mad about all the warnings that were given, lots of people had to pay babysitters today as kids were off school.

dublinjen

A man died from a tree falling on his car today.

Also, I may not be the greatest at reading charts etc but as I understand it had rachel moved slightly south things could have been very different. The warning is just that - a warning, that things could possibly become extremely dangerous. I cannot for the life of me understand anger that things didnt turn out as bad as originally predicted.

mickmackey1

JONJO THE MISER wrote: »

Everyone i was talking to are going mad about all the warnings that were given, lots of people had to pay babysitters today as kids were off school.

Yeah it was surreal to see the school closed & the twigs barely swaying in the breeze

eigrod

dublinjen wrote: »

A man died from a tree falling on his car today.

Also, I may not be the greatest at reading charts etc but as I understand it had rachel moved slightly south things could have been very different. The warning is just that - a warning, that things could possibly become extremely dangerous. I cannot for the life of me understand anger that things didnt turn out as bad as originally predicted.

That's pretty much how I see it too. 'Damned if they do, and damned if they don't' probaly applies to those in weather forecasting more than any other profession/pastime.

Tactical

Well said M.T. well said.

Many thanks for all your experienced input and forecasting.

Thanks to all the other regular experts here whose opinion and input and forecasts I also value.

As far as I'm concerned, the level of warning attached to this weather event both here on the weather forum and by Met Eireann was perfectly warranted.

They were warnings. Not a guarantee of what was going to happen but a notice to take heed and prepare accordingly.

What happens in practice can never be certain before an event but rest assured if no warnings were given things could be a lot worse.

As for things not apparently being too bad in Limerick, locally in West Limerick trees were knocked and roads blocked. Not as widespread as Feb 12th 2012 but nonetheless trees did get blown down. I have also heard on a news broadcast that a tree fell on a vehicle with its driver inside it. I don't have an exact location other than Limerick, possibly near or in the city.

With trees coming down it was the right call to close schools. Last year the school was closed at the height of the winds and parents had to attempt to make the school under dangerous conditions. Most schools would not have the resources to inspect their premises following overnight winds and again, a closure protects pupils and staff. Imagine the uproar if a tile or slate dislodged and injured a student......

Participants in the weather thread should understand that a warning is simply that. If it were more I'd rush straight out and buy a lottery ticket.

The weather reports are great to read. The banter is enjoyable. Let's keep the weather forum that way and not focus on why a warning if a particular level was issued. I feel it was warranted due to the potential of the weather system. The fact it may not have reached maximum parameters is not something to lament from a safety point of view but from an experience and enjoyment point of view

I'm looking forward, as always, to the next wind or snow event.

mojopolo

dublinjen wrote: »

A man died from a tree falling on his car today.

Also, I may not be the greatest at reading charts etc but as I understand it had rachel moved slightly south things could have been very different. The warning is just that - a warning, that things could possibly become extremely dangerous. I cannot for the life of me understand anger that things didn't turn out as bad as originally predicted.

From what I have read the storm appears to have been more severe in Co Antrim and Co Down than was expected. There were numerous roads closed due to fallen trees, one fatality and a number of people taken to hospital with injuries - yet the Met Office had only a yellow warning.

I saw the aftermath of the 2 women who were injured at Connswater Shopping Centre in Belfast - the older woman took a pallet to the head while she was pushing her 3-year old grand-daughter in a shopping trolley. I hate to think what a close call it was for the grand-daughter.

Halpenny

Wave of nearly 17m in height off the SW coast. Wish I could post images; a double decker bus never looked so small compared to that wave height. Taken from ME website:

15 January 2015

Second highest wave on record at the Cork/Kerry Buoy M3

The average Significant Wave Height (SWH) at the M3 Cork/Kerry buoy has been over 6m so far this month making it a period of unusually high seas, where the term Significant Wave Height denotes the average of the highest third of wave heights over a period.

This buoy measured an individual wave of 16.9m at 10:00 on January 15th 2015, its second highest on record. The highest on record is a 19.1m wave recorded on January 27th 2013.

In addition, the M2 buoy in the Irish Sea recorded an individual wave of 8.7m at 22:00 on 14 Jan 2015, slightly lower than its record of 8.98m on 27 December 2013.

RoisinD

JONJO THE MISER wrote: »

Everyone i was talking to are going mad about all the warnings that were given, lots of people had to pay babysitters today as kids were off school.

I cannot understand that reaction. It is almost as if some see school as a free babysitting service. Have people already forgotten what happened last year when schools were open and the winds hit as some were about to head for home? Trees falling in front of cars, roads blocked etc, roads flooded, homes damaged and flooded. People unable to reach some schools due to the above and panicing.

Surely it is better that they knew today that their children were safe and not having to travel, in what were adverse conditions for many.

As has been pointed out so many times, weather is not an exact science and that for so many is what makes it interesting and challenging. Long may our contributors here continue to keep us informed.

AngryHippie

Halpenny wrote: »

Wave of nearly 17m in height off the SW coast. Wish I could post images; a double decker bus never looked so small compared to that wave height. Taken from ME website:

Have you got images of these waves ?

can you stick them in the weather photo thread ?

Halpenny

AngryHippie wrote: »

Have you got images of these waves ?

can you stick them in the weather photo thread ?

Sorry my bad - it was a graph with an image of a red bus in it. And as a new user I can't post any images or links.

Add www dot to - met.ie/news/display.asp?ID=303

F-Stop

There you go.

Second highest wave on record at the Cork/Kerry Buoy M3.

15 January 2015

Second highest wave on record at the Cork/Kerry Buoy M3

The average Significant Wave Height (SWH) at the M3 Cork/Kerry buoy has been over 6m so far this month making it a period of unusually high seas, where the term Significant Wave Height denotes the average of the highest third of wave heights over a period.

This buoy measured an individual wave of 16.9m at 10:00 on January 15th 2015, its second highest on record. The highest on record is a 19.1m wave recorded on January 27th 2013.

In addition, the M2 buoy in the Irish Sea recorded an individual wave of 8.7m at 22:00 on 14 Jan 2015, slightly lower than its record of 8.98m on 27 December 2013.

Obviously, this is from the Met Eireann website

Halpenny

Thanks F-Stop. Not nearly as dramatic as a photo of the actual wave swallowing up a bus but it does the trick ... clearly I have a very vivid imagination.

F-Stop

Me too. For some reason I had an image of the 46A on some coastal road in Cork with a ginormous wave about to crash down on it. It put the whole red warning in perspective for me.