Strong Winds/Severe Gusts January 14/15th 2015

squarecircles

From irish weather online facebook page.


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As of 7:30 pm Tuesday, forecast is "steady as she goes" after reviewing all recent guidance. There is still some uncertainty and maximum wind gusts may be in the range 110-130 km/hr for south coast, 130-150 km/hr in coastal west and northwest. Further inland the range should be 90-110 km/hr. Some damage and power interruptions seem likely to us, but we feel that for areas of west Munster that were hit hard last February, this storm will not quite reach those levels. It may do so in some parts of Mayo and Donegal and possibly also around Galway Bay (to be clear, some of those regions were spared last February so what's implied is that this storm could be about as strong there as last year's 12 Feb storm was in Limerick and Kerry) .
Therefore if in these regions or any well exposed locations in Ireland, avoid unnecessary travel during the strongest winds expected from mid-afternoon Wednesday to late morning Thursday. Secure loose objects and if you have to park a vehicle outdoors, pick a spot that is not downwind from trees or other potentially loose objects. To assess that before the winds pick up, you can stand in the proposed location and face southwest then west, to see what is upwind of that location. It might save you a bit of damage to your car if you avoid a location where a tree branch or roofing tiles could fly into it. Definitely time to bring in the trampolines etc. ... Watch for any further updates before mdinight and the usual morning forecast around 0730 to 0745h as we track the rapidly developing storm now located in the western Atlantic near 52N 38W. -- Peter and your IWO forecast team

Villain

Yep 18z upgrades the impact

Northern Chaser, up to 110km/h or even 120km/h Gusts

munsterlegend

Villain wrote: »

Yep 18z upgrades the impact

Northern Chaser, up to 110km/h or even 120km/h Gusts

Northern chaser?

AnotherYear

Will be interesting to see what gusts Malin head will record

Villain

munsterlegend wrote: »

Northern chaser?

I was replying to poster above, too lazy to quote

Northern Chaser

Thanks pretty heavy indeed. I think once this snow event slows the chat will quickly turn

Nono Toure

.

Julabo

So what is the general opinion on here about this storm?

Winds of what speed? What is the damage potential on the west coast?

I am supposed to drive from Clare to Donegal Thursday morning for work. Am I better to just re schedule this to be on the safe side?

murdig

What are the chances this warning will be changed to red?

Meteorite58

The weather forecast on RTE after the news was poor indeed, reminded me of the 21. 30 forecast just before the big storm last Feb. There was an air of nervousness I thought , like a sense of holding back for later ?

maquiladora

murdig wrote: »

What are the chances this warning will be changed to red?

There's a chance. Some models do show winds strong enough to meet Met Eireann's criteria for a red warning, but it would be limited to exposed coastlines of Mayo/Donegal/Galway.

dublincelt

Flying back into Dublin at 20:00 tomorrow on an A320. What are the chances of a diverted flight? Are there likely to be disruption to flights into DUB at around this time similiar to last week? Any feedback would be very much appreciated!

Tactical

Julabo wrote: »

So what is the general opinion on here about this storm?

Winds of what speed? What is the damage potential on the west coast?

I am supposed to drive from Clare to Donegal Thursday morning for work. Am I better to just re schedule this to be on the safe side?

Take a moment to read back through this thread and M.T's update as well as the many other knowledgeable posters.

M.T. will be updating again around midnight and early tomorrow morning.

maquiladora

Meteorite58 wrote: »

The weather forecast on RTE after the news was poor indeed, reminded me of the 21. 30 forecast just before the big storm last Feb. There was an air of nervousness I thought , like a sense of holding back for later ?

I don't think this storm can be compared February 2014. That storm was exceptional because of the southerly track across the country which brought the core of very strong winds inland over the south and midlands.
Tomorrow's storm is taking more of a traditional route, and the core of strongest winds will be brushing up along the west and northwest coasts rather than pushing far inland.
So for west/northwest coasts it might be as strong or stronger than Feb 2014, but for the vast majority of the country it won't be as severe as that was at all.

2014 :



Tomorrow :

_Whimsical_

Meteorite58 wrote: »

The weather forecast on RTE after the news was poor indeed, reminded me of the 21. 30 forecast just before the big storm last Feb. There was an air of nervousness I thought , like a sense of holding back for later ?

I agree! I live in the city so for me severe weather is an inconvenience. It's easy to forget there are people making decisions with their lives and livelihoods on the basis of the nightly forecast. I'm thinking of the poster deciding to move an elderly relation to his home because he doesn't want to leave him alone in an exposed area and people who've mentioned having animals on farms. Really there should be strong warnings and an emphasis on preparing for an event that might be severe so people can make these decisions, they seem to have forgotten on rte that it's not all about whether commuters in Dublin should bring a brolly or not.

Cork boy 55

North Atlantic bomb cyclone tracks toward Ireland, U.K., threatens hurricane-force winds
Yet another wicked North Atlantic storm is taking aim at Ireland and the U.K. this week. Over the next 24 hours, what is currently a garden-variety low pressure system off the coast of Newfoundland will explode in intensity as it tracks east toward northern Europe.

If the forecasts verify, the storm will easily meet the meteorological criteria of a “bomb” cyclone, or one that falls at least 24 millibars in 24 hours. The minimum pressure in the cyclone is expected to drop from 998 mb on Tuesday morning to 974 mb Tuesday night, and then yet another 31 millibars to 943 mb on Wednesday night

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/01/13/north-atlantic-bomb-cyclone-tracks-toward-ireland-u-k-threatens-hurricane-force-winds/

Meteorite58

Yes indeed a totally different kind of storm, but I think they are holding back to the last moment to be as certain as possible before they announce a red warning for Western counties especially costal regions.

ninebeanrows

I think the storm is being a little underestimated, I hope people don't take their eye of the ball, this storm will be right up there with last year's storm. I hope people take proper precautions and the Met get out a Red warning to the affected areas in time tomorrow if currently guidance holds up.

- It did look for a while over the past few days that the storm was to track to the north-west and be a relatively weak, but more recent model data is moving back to the more extreme solutions offered late last week.

Would only take a few minor changes to make this a really dangerous storm.

vistafinder

A clip from Joanna Donelly was played on local radio while ago and she had a different tune to the forecast at 9.30

ninebeanrows

Last February's was quite exceptional though for the south-west.

Perhaps this will be more like the system on the 26/27th of December 2013, a lot of similarities between the storms.

This one perhaps a little stronger.

Oscar Bravo

Joanna Donelly has been excellent on Radio 1 the past 2 evenings just before 6pm....In all fairness to Siobhan , she had an awful lot to get through in a short time. she gave the warnings , not a lot more she could say. expect a red alert from met eireann in the morning for counties Donegal, Sligo, Mayo, Galway,Clare and Kerry

coillsaille

Weathercheck wrote: »

Last February's was quite exceptional though for the south-west.

Perhaps this will be more like the system on the 26/27th of December 2013, a lot of similarities between the storms.

This one perhaps a little stronger.

The Stephens Day one uprooted my favourite mountain ash tree in the garden. Got loan of a digger and lifted it back in place and banked around it with soil. February's one brought it back down. Watching it burn in the stove as I type...

ninebeanrows

18z ensembles quite strong, a few would bring a more wider scale Red Warning

Smidge

Did any of last years wind storms have a red warning?

goodies

thank you all for your in-put been tracking with great interest. We are on the exposed south west (Kerry)coast by the sea. We got hit hard last february and it was scary. We are preparing for power loss etc. Just trying to get some sense of the timing of potential trajectory tomorrow. I read from midday but wondering have any of you experts a sense of peak core times for us to worry about tomorrow. We have children to pick up from school etc and even thinking about that worries me. thank you

maquiladora

coillsaille wrote: »

The Stephens Day one uprooted my favourite mountain ash tree in the garden. Got loan of a digger and lifted it back in place and banked around it with soil. February's one brought it back down. Watching it burn in the stove as I type...

I think tomorrow's storm will be in the same ballpark as the Stephens Day 2013 storm, but with the areas impacted most being the west and northwest rather than the southwest/south.
I expect we'll see gusts in the region of 130 km/h on the west coast.

maquiladora

Smidge wrote: »

Were any of last years wind storms a red?

At least 2. There were so many lows last winter I get confused though.

Smidge

maquiladora wrote: »

At least 2. There were so many lows last winter I get confused though.

Thanks Maq, I couldn't remember if there was one(never mind two):)

RED L4 0TH

maquiladora wrote: »

I think tomorrow's storm will be in the same ballpark as the Stephens Day 2013 storm, but with the areas impacted most being the west and northwest rather than the southwest/south.
I expect we'll see gusts in the region of 130 km/h on the west coast.

A bit of a tighter gradient perhaps on the current predictions as compared to 2013?

Storm 10

Just on Sky News the storm is called "Rachel"

maquiladora

RED L4 0TH wrote: »

A bit of a tighter gradient perhaps on the current predictions as compared to 2013?

I think they are quite similar, the difference being the northern half of the country will get the strongest winds whereas in 2013 it was the southern half. Ireland is such a small place that the exact tracks makes all the difference.

Harry Palmr

Storm 10 wrote: »

Just on Sky News the storm is called "Rachell"

These do not need a name, what's the criteria?

waterways

Will there be any ships near the area of the track of the developing low tomorrow sending data?

Kilnababe

February 12th storm was red but it was a late change and I expect the same from ME tomorrow. Due to road conditions I don't expect school buses to run anyway tomorrow but I'm keeping the kids out of school. I really hope it doesn't get as bad as last February it was the scariest thing I ever saw.

Mint Sauce

Have had light falls for the last hour or so in Sligo. Flakes have got a bit bigger in the last few minutes though.

maquiladora

Harry Palmr wrote: »

These do not need a name, what's the criteria?

Free University Of Berlin has been naming all lows for decades. I don't know where this "Rachell" name comes from, the media has been inventing their own names in recent years to make these seem more dramatic. If it's going to called anything, it should be Hermann.

irishgeo

The irish and uk met offices are going to start officially naming storms soon i think .

coillsaille

maquiladora wrote: »

I think tomorrow's storm will be in the same ballpark as the Stephens Day 2013 storm, but with the areas impacted most being the west and northwest rather than the southwest/south.
I expect we'll see gusts in the region of 130 km/h on the west coast.

Well being on the north shore of Galway Bay we seem to have gotten a fair share of the brunt of both the Stephens Day and Feb storms last year and it seems we'll get to enjoy the almost full force of this system also.

Excuse me while I go out to hug my remaining trees...

M.T. Cranium

Only briefly (will there be ships near this low).

I will update in a moment, not really picking up any radically new ideas, just sensing that the storm is going to hit towards the upper half of the expected range but key period for me will be 03-06z when the new guidance arrives combined with the inevitable momentum aspect that we call nowcasting.

For the Kerry question, fairly early on you may see a peak in winds there as there will tend to be a strong south to southwest flow well ahead of the strongest gradient as pressures fall rapidly, and it may seem quite bad but probably won't quite compare to 12 Feb. Maybe 2-5 pm for peak winds and a secondary peak middle of the night?

For the various questions about travel on Wed or Thurs in Connacht, I would stay put between 1 p.m. Wed and about 1100h Thurs or perhaps a bit later in north, if storm stays on schedule. I would not chance it with the potential for winds over 140 km/hr in exposed areas.

Will be off site from 0100 to 0500 but gathering data remotely, after I post this update, so will not have a chance to update again until morning forecast.

Shpongler

Plenty snow near Mallow this evening

RED L4 0TH

18Z EURO4 for 3am Thursday. NW Mayo, W Galway, W Donegal seem to have a mean wind speed of 80 kmh or more indicated.

Oscar Bravo

Its fast approaching 1155, so anyone near a radio or Sky 0160 , its time to head over and listen to the general and sea area forecast on Radio 1 and the very latest on tomorrows storm ....

irishgeo

It could be snowy and icy at 9am leaving for work tomorrow and wet and blowing a hurricane when I get back.

Hooter23

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

Its fast approaching 1155, so anyone near a radio or Sky 0160 , its time to head over and listen to the general and sea area forecast on Radio 1 and the very latest on tomorrows storm ....

What did it say missed it...

Storm 10

Hooter23 wrote: »

What did it say missed it...

Did not sound too bad

Oscar Bravo

To be honest not much mention of a storm at all, more "wet and windy" than anything else....im sure this will change in the morning. but just pretty much as wrote on the website.

Connemara Farmer

maquiladora wrote: »

If it's going to called anything, it should be Hermann.

Wouldn't the red tops cream themselves, can see the headline now:

IT'S A MUNSTER!!!

With a complimentary picture of, oh, Liberty Hall blowing over in Eyre Square in Galway for accuracy

Hooter23

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

To be honest not much mention of a storm at all, more "wet and windy" than anything else....im sure this will change in the morning. but just pretty much as wrote on the website.

Thats ridiculous I know were use to stormy weather in the west but they should still warn people everytime!

Steopo

another significant feature of last years storms were the high tides & huge sea swells which caused so much coastal damage on the south and southwest coasts - we're not at high tide tomorrow and forecast swells although significant are not on the scale as some of last years storms

Storm 10

They will have egg on their face if they put up a red warning tomorrow given all the latest updates and charts here