Red C Poll

Phoebas

the groutch wrote: »

just wait til people get their water bills in the letterbox, there will be a sudden drop in govt support again.

Are people really that fickle; a bill that they know is coming for an amount that they know is going to effect their support for the government?
If that is the case, then its probably also the case that they'll just get used to the water bills over time and any drop in support will just be a blip.

Iwasfrozen

Good to see SF are at 21%. I expect them to fall further before the general election and transfers will (as always) kill them. A party that refuses to condemn the actions of the IRA and ban former terrorists from membership is not worthy of being in government.

irishfeen

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

Good to see SF are at 21%. I expect them to fall further before the general election and transfers will (as always) kill them. A party that refuses to condemn the actions of the IRA and ban former terrorists from membership is not worthy of being in government.

21% is absolutely massive - anything over 20% at the next GE and they would have considerable strength in negotiations. could very well end up a Jr partner in government.

Iwasfrozen

irishfeen wrote: »

21% is absolutely massive - anything over 20% at the next GE and they would have considerable strength in negotiations. could very well end up a Jr partner in government.

They've already said they won't be jr partners in government. Not that I trust their word but I think they're smart enough to see a pattern of what happens to jr partners in Irish government.

Anyway 21% poll support translates to 21% first preference votes, polls don't take into consideration transfers which have historically killed SF so they'll be lucky if 21% first preference votes equate to 16 or 17% seats in the Dáil.

And that's before all the smear attacks SF will have to go through before the election.

michael999999

irishfeen wrote: »

21% is absolutely massive - anything over 20% at the next GE and they would have considerable strength in negotiations. could very well end up a Jr partner in government.

Gerry may well be Tanaiste.

irishfeen

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

They've already said they won't be jr partners in government. Not that I trust their word but I think they're smart enough to see a pattern of what happens to jr partners in Irish government.

Anyway 21% poll support translates to 21% first preference votes, polls don't take into consideration transfers which have historically killed SF so they'll be lucky if 21% first preference votes equate to 16 or 17% seats in the Dáil.

And that's before all the smear attacks SF will have to go through before the election.

I think it will end up something in the order of about -

FG - 30%
SF - 22%
FF- 20%
Lab - 10%

I think any sort rainbow government could be formed with the inclusion of Independents... I think realistically its looking like FG/LAB/Ind

Iwasfrozen

irishfeen wrote: »

I think it will end up something in the order of about -

FG - 30%
SF - 22%
FF- 20%
Lab - 10%

I think any sort rainbow government could be formed with the inclusion of Independents... I think realistically its looking like FG/LAB/Ind

Are you saying 22% first preference votes or Dáil seats because if so SF will need far more than 22% first preference votes.

You're also making the assumption the smear the papers will inevitably dig up (and there is a lot of it) won't affect SF's performance.

irishfeen

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

Are you saying 22% first preference votes or Dáil seats because if so SF will need far more than 22% first preference votes.

You're also making the assumption the smear the papers will inevitably dig up (and there is a lot of it) won't affect SF's performance.

Yes 22% first preference, don't think they will get more and even this I think is optimistic ... they will pick up a big vote in poor urban areas but rural constituencies will continue with the FF/FG divide as always.

alaimacerc

michael999999 wrote: »

Gerry may well be Tanaiste.

I'd bet money if there's a SF Tanaiste in the next government, it'll be Mary-Lou, not Gerry. But I don't think it seems likely. FF+SF won't have the seats, and FG+SF would be the ultimate "defeats the purpose of voting at all" outcome.

irishfeen

alaimacerc wrote: »

I'd bet money if there's a SF Tanaiste in the next government, it'll be Mary-Lou, not Gerry. But I don't think it seems likely. FF+SF won't have the seats, and FG+SF would be the ultimate "defeats the purpose of voting at all" outcome.

FG/SF is singly the only outcome possible that's out IMO ... FG/FF won't happen and that's more likely but it doesn't have a hope either. Hung Dáil is also a very strong possibility if FG/Lab do worst then I expect.

Timberrrrrrrr

irishfeen wrote: »

I honestly don't know about that - seems if people are just fed up with it either way.. Yesterday they planned to have "thousands" March on Cork city and the papers reported barely 500 people.. The actions of some protesters in slightly militarising the events has put a massive amount of people off imo .. Then throwing a water balloon/forcing Joan Burton to stay in the car was hilarious at the start but when it sank in where that kind of carry on would lead us numbers at marches have declined massively.

Just back from town (Dublin city) and about 60 gob****es holding up traffic while chanting illegible waffle, great way to get the people on their side.

conorh91

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

You're also making the assumption the smear the papers will inevitably dig up (and there is a lot of it) won't affect SF's performance.

Unfortunately that does appear to be the gist of it.

Anyone who could vote for a party whose leader is purported to be linked in some way to the disappearance of Jean McConville is unlikely to be swayed by sexual abuse allegations or similar.

Fr Tod Umptious

The closer the election gets the lower SF will be.

Remember the first ERSI report a while back that suggested good economic growth ?

Doherty attacked it and attacked its authors saying it was more or less BS.

And the reason is obvious, because it did not fit with the SF mantra that "austerity does not work".

As more and more economic forecasts and results prove that the country is on the up SF will have less to argue, while at the same time having to defend their dear leader and his past, and not just about the violence as we have seen.

Godge

Surprised nobody comments on the poll in Sunday Times today.

FG 27
SF 19
FF 18
Lab 9
Green 3
Ind 23

They don't poll as often as Red C and some of their polls have been out of line. I think this one overstates the Government recovery and I also think ReNua will take votes from FG, Ind and SF in the short term.

However, if FG/Lab are running at close to 40% by the summer in Red C polls, it is game on for seeing this government reelected.

Kermit.de.frog

For all their faults i'd take the present government over any alternative on offer atm because there isn't one.

nuac

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

Good to see SF are at 21%. I expect them to fall further before the general election and transfers will (as always) kill them. A party that refuses to condemn the actions of the IRA and ban former terrorists from membership is not worthy of being in government.

I agree with this.

The RCC tried to use canon law and movement between parishes etc to deal with sexual abusers and issues arising - in effect a state within a state.

Did not work. RCC has lost a lot of support and credibility

SF/IRA are at the same - Kangaroo courts, moving suspects etc, threatening whistleblowers.

They are already losing support over that, and imho will lose more

padd b1975

the groutch wrote: »

just wait til people get their water bills in the letterbox, there will be a sudden drop in govt support again.

People have been getting water bills for years.

Brian Shanahan

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

Wouldn't have stopped the IMF coming in. The guarantee was the wrong move in retrospect only; it appeared to be the right move at the time and I'm fairly certain no matter what the opposition at the time said, they would have done the same thing.

No, it was obvious that it was the wrong move at the time, even if you didn't look at the economics but just the people who were pushing it.

One of the first rules in a crisis is to never take the advice of those who set up the conditions for the crisis in the first place. And it was the people who pushed for deregulation in the first place (the cause) who subsequently pushed so hard for the bank guarantee.
The second rule is never to take the advice of those who will gain the most of said advice being taken. The German government and UK and German banks were the other main group pushing the guarantee, and that was mainly due to the fact that German and UK banks had piled in on the junk bonds being issued by Anglo Irish, the AIBs and BoI just at the point of their collapse, and they knew they could pressure a weak Irish government (especially Lenihan at finance) to guarantee bonds which originally had no guarantee at all, hence the Irish government ending up having to pay extremely high interest (that's the trade off for junk bonds, you get very high interest repayments on the understanding that the company issuing them probably won't survive to repay the debt) on private debt they shouldn't have honoured.

irishfeen wrote: »

I think this is the start of a gradual recovery of the government parties - people ultimately fear change .. Even take the Scottish Referendum as an example.

Bad example, what happened with the Scottish referendum is that the Unionist parties of London got in a panic because up to two weeks before the referendum they were losing and heavily, so they promised to give Scotland devo max if they voted "No" (an option which Call Me Dave refused to counternance going on the original ballot, remember) which is what the Scots at the time were most in favour of. When the referendum swung, the Southern parties went into their usual mode vis a vis Scotland, i.e. treat the Scots like a jumped up bunch of traneens, and proceeded to do everything in their power to not fulfill their pre-referendum promises, even going as far as to say that they wouldn't implement the full recommendations of the report their tame civil servant wrote up for them (which was significantly less than what was promised). Combined this with the Nu Labor/Tory election mantra up in Scotland, "Vote SNP, get the other shower of **** in Westminster!" and you've got a perfect storm of a people that are becoming acceleratingly in favour of full independence and a pro-independence party looking more and more like the only sane option, hence the polls showing that the Nats will get between 52 and all 59 Scottish Westminster seats.

MayoSalmon

It wouldn't be radical to say FF will be back in power in less than 10 years

Kermit.de.frog

All we need now is a Grexit to really break the legs of Sinn Féin.

Everyone knows Greece is on the way out of the eurozone yet SF threw it's lot behind a party that, aside from a couple of looper parties on the continent, is absolutely despised. They are still pretending that these guys are putting it up to the EU!? The shinners are wired to the moon when they touch economics or the EU.

alaimacerc

MayoSalmon wrote: »

It wouldn't be radical to say FF will be back in power in less than 10 years

Soul-destroying, is what it is. But near-inevitable, I think, unless SF really manages to replace it as a party of populist nationalism. Which I think is unlikely: too many that are too conservative to think of voting SF, but too tribal to go FG.

LuckyLloyd

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/fine-gael-support-bounces-back-after-12-year-low-in-last-poll-1.2153425

Good poll for government, however SF up 2% despite recent 'scandals' and Gerry Adam's popularity unchanged.

BoJack Horseman

Well this poll just reflects what was polled by RedC.

The upswing was from MRBI's last poll which was curiously low % for gov parties.

LuckyLloyd

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

Well this poll just reflects what was polled by RedC

Maybe, but it's hard to take the Red C poll seriously when the releasing media entity offers wonderfully biased and meaningless commentary like:

Elsewhere Sinn Fein are at 21pc and are failing to move beyond that level which shows middle Ireland is not ready to consider it worthy of Government.

Zubeneschamali

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

Good poll for government, however SF up 2% despite recent 'scandals' and Gerry Adam's popularity unchanged.

The thing which interests me is that the govt parties are up, but so are undecideds, while independents and FF are down. I think polling angry people tends to bring out the protest element, but as the election approaches people focus. We are going to choose a Government in the next election, and voting for Independents is just handing the Government to the people who vote for a party with a realistic chance of being in that Government.

As for SF, anyone who could vote for Sinn Féin is hardly likely to be bothered by something like a child abuse cover up scandal, SF's leaders have much worse than that on their consciences. The scandals won't dent SF or Gerry Adams with their committed supporters, but they will limit their vote with the undecideds, and will continue to keep them transfer toxic.

Godge

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/fg-gets-boost-as-dublin-support-is-back-to-old-levels-1.2153464


This analysis by Stephen Collins is well worth reading if you haven't used up your free articles yet.


Fine Gael:

"One of the big positives for Fine Gael is that its vote in Dublin is back up to 25 per cent and is in a strong position to hold most of its seats in the capital."

"In class terms, it is way ahead of all rivals in the best-off AB social category, where it is on 43 per cent. It gets 35 per cent among farmers, 24 per cent among C1 voters, 19 per cent among C2 voters and 15 per cent among the poorest DE category.
Across the age groups it is strongest in the over-65s, where it is on 35 per cent, with its next strongest age category the 50 to 64 group, where it gets 29 per cent."


Sinn Fein:

"One cause for concern for the party (Sinn Fein) would be that Sinn Féin support in Dublin has slipped back since the last poll, but its position in Connacht-Ulster has improved significantly over the same period.
In class terms the party is easily the most popular among the poorest DE social category, where it is on 36 per cent of the vote.
That share drops steadily across the socio-economic divide, with the party dropping to 6 per cent among the best-off AB voters.

There is a significant variation across the age groups, but it is weakest among the 50- to 64- year-olds. The party remains more attractive to men than women, although the differential has narrowed considerably over the past few years."

Those are the bits that interest me.

FG support is higher among those who are more likely to vote - better-off voters and older voters.

FF is in big trouble, at only 13% in Dublin, it is only just ahead of Labour on 10% and similar to its 2011 general election performance of 12.5%. Independents/Others at 35% in Dublin is strong (the Socialist Party/AAA should be able to hold its seats, ditto Shane Ross and Finian McGrath). There will be a swing of seats from Labour to SF/Independents if the election was held tomorrow.

I think there is a very interesting year of polls ahead. With more and more people back at work and getting pay rises, support for FG should rise as the year goes on. However, SF is so strong in the lower socio-economic groups that it may well be able to hold its vote in or around 20% come the next election. Nothing in this poll to change my view that the next government will be FG/Lab/Others with the others likely to be one small grouping such as Greens/Renua/Shane Ross group. SF then to be the major opposition party.

Jawgap

For the political anoraks.......from Adrian Kavanagh's blog......

Sinn Fein and the Government Parties make gains: Constituency-level analysis of the Irish Times-Ipsos MRBI opinion poll (26th March 2015)

It suggests FG will be the largest party in the next Dail at about 46 TDs, with Lab being reduced to 4.

The Shinners, he predicts, will have about 40.

golfball37

As i've said ad nauseum, SF would want to be polling close to 40% to get 24% of the vote. At least with FF's 17% you can be sure if anything this will be higher come pollng day

Godge

Jawgap wrote: »

For the political anoraks.......from Adrian Kavanagh's blog......

Sinn Fein and the Government Parties make gains: Constituency-level analysis of the Irish Times-Ipsos MRBI opinion poll (26th March 2015)

It suggests FG will be the largest party in the next Dail at about 46 TDs, with Lab being reduced to 4.

The Shinners, he predicts, will have about 40.

For all his scientific work, he gets some things wrong.

For example, Jack Chambers will not take a seat for FF in Dublin West.

That seat will either be Joan Burton, a second FG candidate or a different FF candidate if they add one.

Jawgap

Godge wrote: »

For all his scientific work, he gets some things wrong.

For example, Jack Chambers will not take a seat for FF in Dublin West.

That seat will either be Joan Burton, a second FG candidate or a different FF candidate if they add one.

I think a lot of what he does is based more on the science and stats and less on the 'art.'

I'd agree, and tbh, I doubt Burton will not be returned - she may have a long night in the count centre though!

Zubeneschamali

Jawgap wrote: »

The Shinners, he predicts, will have about 40.

His model predicts 40, but I think it will turn out to be a bad model.

FG will get more seats than SF for every % point of first preference votes they get, and I think he underestimates this effect.

For example in 2011: FG got 2.11 seats per % point of first preferences. SF got 1.41.

That ratio would give FG 50, and SF 33.

Labours ratio in 2011 was 1.9, and even in 1987, with only 6.5%, they got 12 seats for a ratio of 1.8.


And these predictions are based on this poll - I think the govt parties have hit bottom, and are rebounding. They won't get back up to the heady days of 2011, when they got most of the protest vote, but I think we could see 30% FG, 10% Labour, for seats of FG 60, Labour 20.

Zubeneschamali

golfball37 wrote: »

At least with FF's 17% you can be sure if anything this will be higher come pollng day

I don't think so - they only got 17.4% last time out, and it still hadn't sunk in everywhere that they are no longer the party of permanent government.

Many voters who simply follow the party in power will vote government parties this time, as FF have no goodies to hand out.

Jawgap

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

I don't think so - they only got 17.4% last time out, and it still hadn't sunk in everywhere that they are no longer the party of permanent government.

Many voters who simply follow the party in power will vote government parties this time, as FF have no goodies to hand out.

Plus....a lot of people may feel that voting FF opens the door for SF.

I was in the UK in 1992 and this is starting to have the sniff of that time - the polls saying one thing the outcome of the election being a 'wtf' moment - because it's easy to register a protest when a pollster asks you a question, it's a bit different when you're stood there pencil in hand over the ballot.

Godge

Jawgap wrote: »

I think a lot of what he does is based more on the science and stats and less on the 'art.'

I'd agree, and tbh, I doubt Burton will not be returned - she may have a long night in the count centre though!

She has always relied on transfers. Varadkar will have a large surplus and if he cannot elect a second FG TD, it will elect Burton.

Godge

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

His model predicts 40, but I think it will turn out to be a bad model.

FG will get more seats than SF for every % point of first preference votes they get, and I think he underestimates this effect.

For example in 2011: FG got 2.11 seats per % point of first preferences. SF got 1.41.

That ratio would give FG 50, and SF 33.

Labours ratio in 2011 was 1.9, and even in 1987, with only 6.5%, they got 12 seats for a ratio of 1.8.


And these predictions are based on this poll - I think the govt parties have hit bottom, and are rebounding. They won't get back up to the heady days of 2011, when they got most of the protest vote, but I think we could see 30% FG, 10% Labour, for seats of FG 60, Labour 20.

Remember the new Dail will be smaller with only 158 seats so FG/Labour may be a bit short of 80 seats. Otherwise you seem to have a similar long-term view of the outcome as I do.

Of course, there is a long way to go.

Quin_Dub

Not a chance SF will get to 40 seats from 24% in opinion polls

If that level holds to election day , they'll land 18-20% of actual votes - ,that put them in the high 20's or so - 28 to 30 seats..

FG on 24% would land ~28% of the vote giving them something in the mid to high 40's

I also suspect that some SF gains will be at the expense of other non-government parties..

They are definitely going to go after Joe Higgins vacant seat , likewise Paul Murphy and Boyd Barrett..

Quin_Dub

Jawgap wrote: »

Plus....a lot of people may feel that voting FF opens the door for SF.

I was in the UK in 1992 and this is starting to have the sniff of that time - the polls saying one thing the outcome of the election being a 'wtf' moment - because it's easy to register a protest when a pollster asks you a question, it's a bit different when you're stood there pencil in hand over the ballot.

Definitely shade of the Kinnock era going on..

All the polls had Labour miles ahead , because it was trendy to say you hated the Tories..

But , then they got to the polling booths, not so much..

The opinion polls may not reflect it , but enough of the don't knows and "independent" voters will swing back toward FG/Lab come polling day to make the difference

Godge

Quin_Dub wrote: »

Definitely shade of the Kinnock era going on..

All the polls had Labour miles ahead , because it was trendy to say you hated the Tories..

But , then they got to the polling booths, not so much..

The opinion polls may not reflect it , but enough of the don't knows and "independent" voters will swing back toward FG/Lab come polling day to make the difference

That is not impossible. If FG were to get to say 32% and Labour to 12%, it is not inconceivable that they would have a narrow majority or that they would only need a Lowry or a few like that to get back in.

I have been saying for a while that FG/Lab/Others is a good bet.

I notice that FG/Lab have shortened to 5/1 in the most recent Paddy Power odds.

marienbad

Godge wrote: »

That is not impossible. If FG were to get to say 32% and Labour to 12%, it is not inconceivable that they would have a narrow majority or that they would only need a Lowry or a few like that to get back in.

I have been saying for a while that FG/Lab/Others is a good bet.

I notice that FG/Lab have shortened to 5/1 in the most recent Paddy Power odds.

And I have a few bob on them for quite some time at even better odds

We love stability more than anything else.

First Up

marienbad wrote: »

And I have a few bob on them for quite some time at even better odds

We love stability more than anything else.

We'll have a better feel closer to the election but if you plan to take a punt on FG/Labour I would do it now as those odds are only going to shorten.

Fr Tod Umptious

New Red C poll for SBP shows FG and Lab +3, SF -3, FF no change.

The trend continues

Phoebas

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

New Red C poll for SBP shows FG and Lab +3, SF -3, FF no change.

The trend continues

SF down 4 according to RTÉ.
http://www.rte.ie/news/2015/0328/690500-opinion-poll/

irishfeen

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

New Red C poll for SBP shows FG and Lab +3, SF -3, FF no change.

The trend continues

Yep Full Details -

Fine Gael - 27 (+3)
Sinn Féin - 17 (-4)
Labour - 10 (+3)
Fianna Fáil - 18 (-)
Independents - 28 (-2) *includes Renua Ireland on 2%*

joe912

Jawgap wrote: »

Plus....a lot of people may feel that voting FF opens the door for SF.

I was in the UK in 1992 and this is starting to have the sniff of that time - the polls saying one thing the outcome of the election being a 'wtf' moment - because it's easy to register a protest when a pollster asks you a question, it's a bit different when you're stood there pencil in hand over the ballot.

presumably when you say a lot of people you mean "you".

joe912

Opinion polls have no place in a democratic society. The weekly ones we get now are beyond a joke.

alaimacerc

joe912 wrote: »

Opinion polls have no place in a democratic society.

Perhaps the phrase you're looking for is "incompatible with Republican values"?

Jawgap

joe912 wrote: »

presumably when you say a lot of people you mean "you".

No, I mean to my mind there are broad parallels between the situation here, at the moment, and the UK in 1992 when Labour appeared to be a shoo-in, everyone said they were voting Labour, and afterwards everyone said they voted Labour - and yet the Tories got in.

One reason was that voters fled from the LibDems because voting for them was perceived as opening the door for Labour.

Jawgap

joe912 wrote: »

Opinion polls have no place in a democratic society. The weekly ones we get now are beyond a joke.

Why do you say that?

Are there issues with the sample or the analyses?

conorh91

joe912 wrote: »

Opinion polls have no place in a democratic society. The weekly ones we get now are beyond a joke.

Usually said by people who dislike the latest opinion poll finding.

I believe opinion polls play a vital role in a smart, modern democracy. My only concern would be regarding the integrity of the polling process: there is massive scope and incentive for fraudulent reporting.

Wasn't there some question about the identity of one of the polling companies a few years back? There was major confusion about who they were and who ran the company. If I remember correctly, the company was not properly registered.

joe912

conorh91 wrote: »

Usually said by people who dislike the latest opinion poll finding.

I believe opinion polls play a vital role in a smart, modern democracy. My only concern would be regarding the integrity of the polling process: there is massive scope and incentive for fraudulent reporting.

Wasn't there some question about the identity of one of the polling companies a few years back? There was major confusion about who they were and who ran the company. If I remember correctly, the company was not properly registered.

What possible roll could they play other than persuading people that voting is a waste of time or trying to manipulate the vote to match the requirements of those paying for the poll.
Worse still would sitting governments change policy to match poll results, how would that be healthy in a democratically elected government.