Red C Poll

Banjo String

Permabear wrote: »

This post had been deleted.

We've forgotten FG and FFs history ......

BOHtox

Anyone want to hazard a guess of what the seats outcome will be for each party based on them polls?

hatrickpatrick

Miserably disappointing poll for fans of independents. Can only hope that we recover significantly in the coming months. Anything is possible, as recent poll swings have shown.

I still hold out hope for a whipless government, but I'll admit that the prospect has dimmed slightly. Unlike those opposed, who don't tend to admit when their own parties are doing badly

Permabear wrote: »

This post had been deleted.

By what mechanism, specifically, would it collapse?

alaimacerc

Godge wrote: »

So which future FF leader would be happy as junior partner to SF?

I can certainly imagine min-Dev fancying himself as a maxi-Tanaiste. Or maybe coming up with some piffle about a "rotating collective leadership"...

Phoebas

golfball37 wrote: »

Just because the economy is growing now it still doesn't justify what happened here.
It was morally wrong to attach banking debt to the Irish tax payer and I hope this is still sung from the rooftops no matter how we are doing.

Will SF be singing from the rooftops the fact that they voted for the blanket bank guarantee?

Banjo String

Phoebas wrote: »

Will SF be singing from the rooftops the fact that they voted for the blanket bank guarantee?

Based on cooked book figures. Which FG also Voted on.

FreudianSlippers

Banjo String wrote: »

Based on cooked book figures. Which FG also Voted on.

I don't think you'll find many that disagree that those people in Anglo who were responsible for the deceit should be prosecuted.

However, the government made a very difficult decision with the information available to them at the time with extreme pressure to make a quick decision. It turns out that decision wasn't entirely correct, but it wasn't far off - they should have insulated the healthier pillar banks with a guarantee and let Anglo burn.

Quin_Dub

oscarBravo wrote: »

I like visualising data.

BOHtox wrote: »

Anyone want to hazard a guess of what the seats outcome will be for each party based on them polls?

To refer back to some data that I posted based on the previous polls - Thanks to OscarBravo for the chart..

FG tend to get more votes than their OP levels by a few points , whereas SF tend to poll significantly lower that OP results...

@26% OP results , SF are probably looking at something like 17/18% of the seats/votes so something around 26/27 seats..

FG will be close to double that figure... at 25% OP poll based on the previous profile FG would be looking at ~45 seats..

FG will be the largest party after the next election and by some margin....Labour ~7-8% will get about 15 seats so combined they'll be 60 seats or so..

SF/FF will only have 45-50 seats combined...

Rightwing

Godge wrote: »

One thing on the weekend poll.

SF said they won't go in as junior partners.

SF/FF/Ind is possible based on the figures. Martin wouldn't go for that, but he won't be leader if those figures pan out. Third biggest party? So which future FF leader would be happy as junior partner to SF?

May go in as equal partners I'd imagine.

FreudianSlippers

I think it depends on how poorly Labour do, but I think it'd be crazy to rule out FG/FF and maybe Labour.

Rightwing

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

I think it depends on how poorly Labour do, but I think it'd be crazy to rule out FG/FF and maybe Labour.

Well the likelihood is that combination. The SF aspect is novelty speculation.

Quin_Dub

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

I think it depends on how poorly Labour do, but I think it'd be crazy to rule out FG/FF and maybe Labour.

Rightwing wrote: »

Well the likelihood is that combination. The SF aspect is novelty speculation.

FG/Lab will land somewhere a bit above 60 seats combined..

It'll be a minority government as no group will be able to get to the 80 seat required..

75 seats or so will get the gig so FG/Lab will be looking for the support of 12-15 others..

Let's assume that team Lucinda get around a half dozen seats that leaves another 7 or 8 needed...Shane Ross et all might bring in another 5 or 6..

so FG/LAb will have to do about 4 or 5 deals to stay in power - 1 each to Lucinda and Shane Ross and then 2/3 deals with individuals (Lowry and the like)

Whilst hard to do, that combo is certainly much more achievable then the multitude of combinations required to get SF into power as a snr partner..

listermint

Godge wrote: »

The anger is fading.

The poll at the weekend was interesting but it wasn't a RedC poll who have been doing the most polls recently. The less often a polling company takes a poll, the less able to spot trends.

The next RedC poll will tell a lot.

But you are the same person saying there was no anger? That 'right minded' people were not angry.

I dont believe anger has faded, Not saying that support has increased for the likes of SF and AAA etc, but this whole arrests debacle will kill Labour in all of the areas it used to rely on seats.

Anyone that cant see that should look again.

the groutch

I can definitely see there being more than one election in 2016, given the distribution of votes and unwillingness of certain parties to join together.

Quin_Dub

the groutch wrote: »

I can definitely see there being more than one election in 2016, given the distribution of votes and unwillingness of certain parties to join together.

It's certainly a possibility..

As I see it there are 3 possibilites

• FG/Lab + others minority Government
  
• FG/FF/Lab majority Government
  
• Hung Dail with a repeat vote in late summer

Can't see any other scenario really happening...

Permabear

This post has been deleted.

Rightwing

Permabear wrote: »

This post had been deleted.

Stories like this will hit the Government. People see this Govt working for the troika and themselves (i.e the public sector).

http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/irish-government-blew-opportunity-to-get-debt-deal-former-imf-chief-mody-30996108.html
THE current government blew an opportunity to get a debt write-down deal and a “slower pace of austerity” from the EU/ECB/IMF troika when it took office four years ago, the former IMF chief of mission to Ireland said today.

Quin_Dub

Permabear wrote: »

This post had been deleted.

Without question..

Irish voters have short memories generally speaking...

The Economy is improving , slowly but steadily..

Little things that people begin to see - Like for example , in my own locality , several new little coffee shops/cafes have opened up.. There are less boarded up store-fronts. More traffic on the roads etc.

All these things are indicative of a local economy beginning to move again...

That's what will get votes for the main parties..

There's a whole other debate to be had about why Irish people vote FF/FG all the time , but fundamentally , when there's money in their pockets that's how they vote..

Anything else is a protest vote...And the reasons for protest are steadily ebbing away as money flows back into the local economy and peoples pockets..

IW is a unique issue and whilst there's still a lot of complaints about it, it alone is not enough to get SF et al elected..

Permabear

This post has been deleted.

golfball37

Permabear wrote: »

This post had been deleted.

SF have said PS wages will be capped at 100k was my understanding. A step I would certainly agree with. if these senior civil servants are so good let them get their wage in the private sector.

Quin_Dub

golfball37 wrote: »

SF have said PS wages will be capped at 100k was my understanding. A step I would certainly agree with. if these senior civil servants are so good let them get their wage in the private sector.

But that's not really the problem with the Public sector though, is it?

Very few of them are earning over 100k..

The problem is too many mid-ranking people doing the the wrong work or not doing it efficiently..

It's policy/procedure/process reform that's needed.

Yes , we are wasting money on paying some people too much in the Public sector, but we are wasting infinitely more money by not getting value for what we are spending....

None of the left-leaning parties will address that - and I include Labour in that group as well as it was Labour that watered down the planned reforms in the PS within the current government.

Rightwing

golfball37 wrote: »

SF have said PS wages will be capped at 100k was my understanding. A step I would certainly agree with. if these senior civil servants are so good let them get their wage in the private sector.

This is a key economic concept that the ordinary individual should try and understand.

RandomName2

FG and Labour have deliberately destroyed themselves with the water charges (for reasons that really aren't terribly clear).
Fianna Fail has kept shtum on their previous performance in government - making it seem as if they haven't learned anything at all from the collapse in the country's economy.

There are apparently a couple of new parties in the wings waiting to emerge - but lackluster performances from failures such as Fis Nua, Direct Democracy Ireland, and er... New... something... doesn't exactly bode well.

The "oh my God you're voting for them!?" brigade of Christian Solidarity, Socialist and Greens won't make much impact (although most of what was Socialist has been absorbed by the far more successful AAA).

Which really just leaves Sinn Fein to fill a vacuum. A bizarre candidate, if you will, given its poor credentials, extreme positions, and chequered history, but it is one not coloured by having been in charge of any debacle in the Irish state.

So it's a messy situation. Maybe the major parties could scrape together a couple of braincells and come up with something palatable for the electorate, but given past performances, I won't hold my breath.

alaimacerc

Quin_Dub wrote: »

FG/FF/Lab majority Government

Do you think it's likely FG+FF won't have the seats between them to form a government? Or is it more that Lab are there out of force of habit, and to distract from the shocking development of the Civil Wars being in together? ("That's alright Rick, I'm using Labour as a condom!" -- dating myself badly with that reference, I suspect...)

Permabear

This post has been deleted.

Quin_Dub

alaimacerc wrote: »

Do you think it's likely FG+FF won't have the seats between them to form a government? Or is it more that Lab are there out of force of habit, and to distract from the shocking development of the Civil Wars being in together? ("That's alright Rick, I'm using Labour as a condom!" -- dating myself badly with that reference, I suspect...)

FG+FF combined will likely have enough for a slim majority (44% combined in Red C poll would give them just a little over 50% of the seats) so they might need Labour to ensure a solid majority..

Also - I think that FF certainly would be more open to coalition if there was a Jnr Junior partner that could be the fall guy instead of them....

So, why have a 1 or 2 seat government majority when you could have closer to 10/12 with Labour in tow whilst still keeping Labour as the sacrificial lambs for the next time around...?

alaimacerc

RandomName2 wrote: »

(although most of what was Socialist has been absorbed by the far more successful AAA).

Or the AAA are a "front" for the SP, if one wants to regard it in more trad Trotskyite terms. (Or more familiar ways of regarding Trots, perhaps.) PBP and the SWP do seem to be slightly more meaningfully distinct these days, though.

alaimacerc

Quin_Dub wrote: »

FG+FF combined will likely have enough for a slim majority (44% combined in Red C poll would give them just a little over 50% of the seats) so they might need Labour to ensure a solid majority..

Also - I think that FF certainly would be more open to coalition if there was a Jnr Junior partner that could be the fall guy instead of them....

So, why have a 1 or 2 seat government majority when you could have closer to 10/12 with Labour in tow whilst still keeping Labour as the sacrificial lambs for the next time around...?

There may be some logic to that. But when you factor in the "big party bonus", SF transfer toxicity, the independent soufflé effect, and the quiet shame involved in voting for the CWPs these days and not admitting it to pollsters, my guess is that those intentions would actually translate into a much larger seat total between those two. Albeit still shockingly low on the historical trend...

flutered

Quin_Dub wrote: »

FG/Lab will land somewhere a bit above 60 seats combined..

It'll be a minority government as no group will be able to get to the 80 seat required..

75 seats or so will get the gig so FG/Lab will be looking for the support of 12-15 others..

Let's assume that team Lucinda get around a half dozen seats that leaves another 7 or 8 needed...Shane Ross et all might bring in another 5 or 6..

so FG/LAb will have to do about 4 or 5 deals to stay in power - 1 each to Lucinda and Shane Ross and then 2/3 deals with individuals (Lowry and the like)

Whilst hard to do, that combo is certainly much more achievable then the multitude of combinations required to get SF into power as a snr partner..

methinks that the dear lucy would have nothing to do with fg with pinnochio as leader

Quin_Dub

flutered wrote: »

methinks that the dear lucy would have nothing to do with fg with pinnochio as leader

Lucy will do a deal with anyone to get into Government...not a chance in hell that she says no if offered a cabinet sweetener

flutered

RandomName2 wrote: »

FG and Labour have deliberately destroyed themselves with the water charges (for reasons that really aren't terribly clear).
Fianna Fail has kept shtum on their previous performance in government - making it seem as if they haven't learned anything at all from the collapse in the country's economy.

There are apparently a couple of new parties in the wings waiting to emerge - but lackluster performances from failures such as Fis Nua, Direct Democracy Ireland, and er... New... something... doesn't exactly bode well.

The "oh my God you're voting for them!?" brigade of Christian Solidarity, Socialist and Greens won't make much impact (although most of what was Socialist has been absorbed by the far more successful AAA).

Which really just leaves Sinn Fein to fill a vacuum. A bizarre candidate, if you will, given its poor credentials, extreme positions, and chequered history, but it is one not coloured by having been in charge of any debacle in the Irish state.

So it's a messy situation. Maybe the major parties could scrape together a couple of braincells and come up with something palatable for the electorate, but given past performances, I won't hold my breath.

is sf's history and more toxic than ff's, and now labour, btw fg are not exactly flavour of the year as yet, especially as pinnochio has has to employ a pr guy to ensure his re election in mayo, private polls must be making unhappy bedtime reading somewhere, btw this guy is paid out of the public purse, how can he get away with that, surly either fg or pinnochio himself should havre to shell out for him

flutered

golfball37 wrote: »

SF have said PS wages will be capped at 100k was my understanding. A step I would certainly agree with. if these senior civil servants are so good let them get their wage in the private sector.

to me their big elephant in the room is the prospect of having politicians fancy pensions taxed at perhaps 90%, this i mantain is the massive push to keep the shinners out at all costs

Quin_Dub

alaimacerc wrote: »

There may be some logic to that. But when you factor in the "big party bonus", SF transfer toxicity, the independent soufflé effect, and the quiet shame involved in voting for the CWPs these days and not admitting it to pollsters, my guess is that those intentions would actually translate into a much larger seat total between those two. Albeit still shockingly low on the historical trend...

You could be right.. Still a large "undecided" bucket - 29%

That's a very big number , plus a fair % of the "Independent" bucket are undecided in disguise..

Those are the key voters and also the ones most likely to be influenced by the improving economy...

Let's be fair.. If you don't hate the government now , you're unlikely to start hating them in the next 12 months...

Zubeneschamali

flutered wrote: »

pinnochio has has to employ a pr guy to ensure his re election in mayo

Enda Kenny's seat is the safest seat in the country. The Ceann Comhairle is more likely to be lynched by an angry mob than Kenny is to lose in Mayo.

Rightwing

Permabear wrote: »

This post had been deleted.

Conversely, what kind of school principal or middle management in PS would work for less than €100K ?

oscarBravo

golfball37 wrote: »

SF have said PS wages will be capped at 100k was my understanding. A step I would certainly agree with. if these senior civil servants are so good let them get their wage in the private sector.

I'm not convinced that "we don't want anyone in the public sector that's capable of earning a decent salary in the private sector" is a flawless approach to running the country.

Quin_Dub

oscarBravo wrote: »

I'm not convinced that "we don't want anyone in the public sector that's capable of earning a decent salary in the private sector" is a flawless approach to running the country.

Totally agree - We need to move away from looking at the amount people are getting paid and focus on what we get in return...

I don't care how much some gets paid as long as we are getting a return on that expenditure..

I'd prefer to be able to have 5 superstars earning 100k each instead of 10 lazy wasters earning 50k each..

The fundamental problem with Public services is a lack of value for money...

Rightwing

oscarBravo wrote: »

I'm not convinced that "we don't want anyone in the public sector that's capable of earning a decent salary in the private sector" is a flawless approach to running the country.

That's not what the poster was saying though. A point must be reached where the public sector salary can't match the private. Individuals at this stage of their careers must go to the private sector if they want to compete.

Quin_Dub wrote: »

Totally agree - We need to move away from looking at the amount people are getting paid and focus on what we get in return...

I don't care how much some gets paid as long as we are getting a return on that expenditure..

I'd prefer to be able to have 5 superstars earning 100k each instead of 10 lazy wasters earning 50k each..

The fundamental problem with Public services is a lack of value for money...

That can't be done. How do we know if a county manager is doing a good job for instance? They view the exchequer as a bottomless pit.

conorh91

Permabear wrote: »

This post had been deleted.

At present there are hospital consultants earning €65k after taxes and levies. It works out at around €100k gross pay.

Plenty of CEOs earn less than €100k. A few years ago, I worked for a CEO who took no wage at all. Although that practice has become far less common today, CEOs are the most pragmatic people in business.

Why shouldn't public servants face up to responsible pragmatism in a similar vein?

Capping public-sector pay is no panacea, but it is one of the least-stupid SF policies.

CramCycle

conorh91 wrote: »

Plenty of CEOs earn less than €100k. A few years ago, I worked for a CEO who took no wage at all. Although that practice has become far less common today, CEOs are the most pragmatic people in business.

Precisely, in many cases the CEOs of up and coming companies that they perceive will do exceptionally well under them but needs a bit of time to get that to happen, and they see the reward at the end of the line, be it in the company or externally through being pinched once they have shown off their talents.

This would have to filter in to a reward based system for senior civil servants in equivalent positions, I have nothing against it, designing and implementing it may prove problematic though.

Godge

Quin_Dub wrote: »

To refer back to some data that I posted based on the previous polls - Thanks to OscarBravo for the chart..

FG tend to get more votes than their OP levels by a few points , whereas SF tend to poll significantly lower that OP results...

@26% OP results , SF are probably looking at something like 17/18% of the seats/votes so something around 26/27 seats..

FG will be close to double that figure... at 25% OP poll based on the previous profile FG would be looking at ~45 seats..

FG will be the largest party after the next election and by some margin....Labour ~7-8% will get about 15 seats so combined they'll be 60 seats or so..

SF/FF will only have 45-50 seats combined...

Rightwing wrote: »

May go in as equal partners I'd imagine.

Rightwing wrote: »

Well the likelihood is that combination. The SF aspect is novelty speculation.

Quin_Dub wrote: »

It's certainly a possibility..

As I see it there are 3 possibilites

• FG/Lab + others minority Government
  
• FG/FF/Lab majority Government
  
• Hung Dail with a repeat vote in late summer

Can't see any other scenario really happening...

Quin_Dub wrote: »

FG+FF combined will likely have enough for a slim majority (44% combined in Red C poll would give them just a little over 50% of the seats) so they might need Labour to ensure a solid majority..

Also - I think that FF certainly would be more open to coalition if there was a Jnr Junior partner that could be the fall guy instead of them....

So, why have a 1 or 2 seat government majority when you could have closer to 10/12 with Labour in tow whilst still keeping Labour as the sacrificial lambs for the next time around...?

http://adriankavanaghelections.org/2015/02/14/sinn-fein-feeling-the-love-on-valentines-day-constituency-level-analysis-of-the-sunday-independent-millward-brown-opinion-poll-15th-february-2015/#more-7859


I don't always agree with Adrian Kavanagh's analysis but as always it makes at the very least a good point to start a debate from.

On the Sindo poll, he has the following:

FG - 46
SF - 45
FF - 34
Ind - 33
Lab - 1

He is one out with 159 instead of 158, still it means SF/FF/Ind is a real possibility if those poll results were to be replicated.

It seems more and more that the choice in the next election will be a government led by FG or a government led by SF.

Zubeneschamali

Godge wrote: »

On the Sindo poll, he has the following:

FG - 46
SF - 45

Seats? He's having a laugh.

Gerry Adams himself has said they cannot make best use of a 26% vote share. They don't have enough candidates, they don't have the organization in every constituency, and they don't get any transfers from FG, Labour or FF supporters.

If they go in equal at 26%, FG will be better than 50-40 ahead, maybe 55-35.

Quin_Dub

Godge wrote: »

http://adriankavanaghelections.org/2015/02/14/sinn-fein-feeling-the-love-on-valentines-day-constituency-level-analysis-of-the-sunday-independent-millward-brown-opinion-poll-15th-february-2015/#more-7859


I don't always agree with Adrian Kavanagh's analysis but as always it makes at the very least a good point to start a debate from.

On the Sindo poll, he has the following:

FG - 46
SF - 45
FF - 34
Ind - 33
Lab - 1

He is one out with 159 instead of 158, still it means SF/FF/Ind is a real possibility if those poll results were to be replicated.

It seems more and more that the choice in the next election will be a government led by FG or a government led by SF.

Not a chance in hell that SF will get 45 seats..

They'd need to be around 40% in the Opinion polls to even have a chance of that level of seats..

Plus , that would mean taking 2 seats in quite a few 4 seaters - Something that they've never done before..With their transfer "challenges" they'd need to be pulling down 45% plus of 1st preference votes to get a 2nd seat anywhere... Again , not going to happen...

Gerry Adams was one of only 2 SF candidates to get reach the quota on 1st preferences ,along with Caomhin O'Caolain last time out - both only just exceeded the quota...

SF will not break 30 seats..

RandomName2

Quin_Dub wrote: »

Not a chance in hell that SF will get 45 seats..

They'd need to be around 40% in the Opinion polls to even have a chance of that level of seats..

Plus , that would mean taking 2 seats in quite a few 4 seaters - Something that they've never done before..With their transfer "challenges" they'd need to be pulling down 45% plus of 1st preference votes to get a 2nd seat anywhere... Again , not going to happen...

Gerry Adams was one of only 2 SF candidates to get reach the quota on 1st preferences ,along with Caomhin O'Caolain last time out - both only just exceeded the quota...

SF will not break 30 seats..

FG is desperately campaigning on behalf of SF at the moment (thank God there isn't a devisive EU referendum in the mix because you know what line the government would go with). However, one has to factor in the fact that as a protest-vote, more moderate left wing groups, and of course independents, will siphon off a lot of ballots (as was witnessed in the by-elections).

Permabear

This post has been deleted.

Chips Lovell

golfball37 wrote: »

SF have said PS wages will be capped at 100k was my understanding. A step I would certainly agree with. if these senior civil servants are so good let them get their wage in the private sector.

They already finding positions elsewhere. There's plenty of examples of positions paying above €100k remaining unfilled because suitable candidates aren't applying.

EDIT: Permabear beat me to it.

Rightwing

Jep Gambardella wrote: »

They already finding positions elsewhere. There's plenty of examples of positions paying above €100k remaining unfilled because suitable candidates aren't applying.

EDIT: Permabear beat me to it.

I think SF are probably looking at principals in schools, civil service etc.

No one in their right mind would question a consultant entitled to earn over €100K. However, at the moment they are milking it both off the private and simultaneously from the public.

Chips Lovell

Rightwing wrote: »

I think SF are probably looking at principals in schools, civil service etc.

No one in their right mind would question a consultant entitled to earn over €100K. However, at the moment they are milking it both off the private and simultaneously from the public.

They made no such distinction. Indeed, they specifically mentioned they wanted to cut consultants pay:

Reduce consultants’ pay by 15% on income between €150,000 and €200,000; and 30% on income of over €200,000 per annum: saves €9 million

Permabear

This post has been deleted.

Rightwing

Jep Gambardella wrote: »

They made no such distinction. Indeed, they specifically mentioned they wanted to cut consultants pay:

Well consultants shouldn't be seen to be untouchable.

PS salaries are out of control. We need look no further than this for proof:

http://www.irishexaminer.com/ireland/incoming-lord-mayor-defends-110k-salary-234590.html
The incoming lord mayor of Cork has defended the office’s €110,000 salary describing it as a “reflection of the importance of the role”.
Catherine Clancy, Labour, was reacting to criticism from Sinn Féin which said the city cannot afford what it described as one of the highest paid political jobs in Europe.

--
I think I'll take SF's side on this one.