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GB's cheap Chinese nuclear plant -v- solar
Comments
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Capt'n Midnight wrote: »Other unplanned outages in April
http://www.baltimoresun.com/business/bs-bz-nrc-inpects-calvert-cliffs-20150413-story.html
http://triblive.com/business/headlines/8179437-74/pump-power-shut
http://www.timesherald.com/general-news/20150415/limerick-nuclear-reactor-shutdown-starts-with-a-hiccup
http://www.yournuclearnews.com/xcel+energy+%3A++operators+safely+shut+down+unit+2+at+prairie+island+nuclear+plant_114673.html
http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20150416000837
also A shutdown at New Brunswick’s Point Lepreau nuclear generating station was extended to allow for more repairs.
http://metronews.ca/news/canada/1335296/point-lepreau-shutdown-extended-for-work/ http://www.nbpower.com/html/en/about/media/media_release/2015/04-21-15-EN_PLNGSUpdate.html
http://plymouth.wickedlocal.com/article/20150305/NEWS/150309065"taking an additional five days during restart to reach full power." :eek:You’re also clearly unaware that investors are being scared aware from the German electricity market because wholesale prices are getting so low:
http://www.dw.de/german-power-giant-rwes-profits-shrink/a-18305030
Yes, having wholesale prices that are violently unstable and can plummet as low as -€100MW per kwh (that's right you generate power and have to pay €100 a kilowatt hour to get it taken off your hands). That kind of thing does indeed tend to scare power plant builders away, and I am fully aware that this could be a real phenomenon and the harm it could do.
Contradiction 1:
But wait a second: hasn't Capt'nMidnight spent this entire thread reassuring us all that installed thermal plant will never be a problem? That there will always be a market for renewables backup and there will never be a shortage of installed traditional plant? That if we ever again have a crisis like Xmas 2010 we can all put on our electric radiators and other electric heaters and not have to worry about being bankrupted or crashing the grid?
How will that be if we take everyone's money in subsidies for counterproductive renewables and leave no business case for traditional plant, who might spend more time paying grid managers to waste their power than helping in such a crisis?
Contradicition 2:
And why are you quoting the wholesale price in Germany when it has nothing whatsoever to do with what people pay on their electricity bills? Actually, it has a negative relationship: People are paying stupid levels of money in renewables subsidies so that the government can foul up the wholesale market.compare the Average French demand with the Installed Hydro. And then remember that they import/export to the UK , Germany , Belgium , Spain and Italy.
Contradiction 3:
I keep being told by the Captain that France requires the co-operation of the rest of the continent. In particular, I've been told that France relies on the rest of the continent taking its night time surplus. If so, then why did France just place restrictive laws on night time lighting? Surely if France had the traditional utility problems of night time - keeeping demand high so as to avoid a fall-off in demand requring too much output reduction from the baseline, then such a law would have been deeply counter-productive and totally ill-advised. What's going on? I'm being told one thing here, but the French legislature is saying the exact opposite! BTW, Captn'Midnight has yet to explain the 40% figure for French hydro. What on Earth is going on over in the Fifth Republic? Your posts on this matter - were they to be taken seriously - would confuse any rational person confronted with the facts.
Contradiction 4:
The oppportunity cost of gas. I keep being told that my assertions about the opportunity cost of using gas for power are not based in reality, that it isn't really useful for much other than "energy." Leaving aside that I consider this to be absurd to the point of incredibility, considering how varied our energy needs are and how large the problem is, this claim is in direct contradiction to the Sierra Club who agree with T. Boone Pickens that gas (whether CNG or LNG or LPG or whatever) would be better used in transport than in power plants. Again, what the Hell is going on?Capt'n Midnight wrote: »LPG, like diesel is an oil distillate. And like diesel it's price is determined by demand and tax.
Then how come Wikipedia says the exact opposite?According to 2010–12 estimates, proven world reserves of natural gas, from which most LPG is derived, stand at 300 trillion cubic meters (10,600 trillion cubic feet). Added to the LPG derived from cracking crude oil, this amounts to a major energy source that is virtually untapped and has massive potential.Natural gas, is a totally different beast, not easily liquifyable and having much lower emissions as it's CH4Hinkley C will be getting 170m a year in grid support. AFAIK clean up costs are not includedAlso I see that you are finally begining to understand that nuclear relies on having massive amounts of other dispatchable generators connected to prop it up since it can't load balance,
I really have to ask, has anyone thought about all of this in any meaningful way?0 -
Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 92,982 Mod ✭✭✭✭Join Date:Posts: 91220
some of June's crop of unreliable Nuclear power
Japan restart delayed - but delays are normal for nuclear
http://www.powermag.com/restart-of-sendai-nuclear-plant-delayed-to-august/
UK military snafu
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-devon-33051905
RED WING, Minn. – Operators have safely shut down Unit 2 of the Prairie Island nuclear power plant near Red Wing.
http://www.startribune.com/operators-shut-down-unit-2-at-prairie-island-nuclear-plant/306431281/
Hunterston nuclear reactor offline due to seaweed level - Jellyfish are late this year
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-32970794
Slovenia's only nuclear plant Krsko said today it has initiated a preventive shutdown over technical problems in the system for monitoring the temperature.
http://www.ndtv.com/world-news/technical-problem-shuts-down-solvenian-nuclear-plant-768695
Digging here would list more
http://www.nrc.gov/reading-rm/doc-collections/event-status/event/2015/
http://www.itv.com/news/anglia/update/2015-06-10/union-raises-fears-over-essex-nuclear-plant/
"The idea that a Chinese state company will be given a site in the UK, not far from London, where they can use Chinese labour to construct a reactor to be made in China and using Chinese components would in our view constitute economic madness and raises serious safety issues."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/france/11662889/Faulty-valves-in-new-generation-EPR-nuclear-reactor-pose-meltdown-risk-inspectors-warn.html
France’s nuclear safety watchdog found “multiple” malfunctioning valves in the Flamanville EPR that could cause its meltdown,
http://atlantic.ctvnews.ca/new-brunswick-s-point-lepreau-nuclear-plant-operating-at-reduced-power-1.2412566
POINT LEPREAU, N.B. -- New Brunswick's Point Lepreau nuclear plant is operating a reduced power after testing confirmed repairs are needed to reheater components.
we keep hearing that new generation reactors are better
http://sandiegofreepress.org/2015/06/nuclear-shutdown-news-may-2015-fire-at-indian-point-plant-in-ny-and-is-it-the-end-for-diablo-canyon/
“The transformer was supposed to last 40 years. It was 8 years old when it failed.”
who'd have guessed it ? another (predictable) cost overrun
http://www.independentmail.com/news/northeast-georgia/southern-co-casts-blame-at-builders-for-nuclear-plant-delay
Georgia Power, which owns a 46 percent stake in the project, has seen its share of construction costs rise from roughly $6.1 billion to $7.5 billion, according to the company's latest filings. Analysts working for the state's Public Service Commission expect the costs will creep to $8.2 billion or more.
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Under state law, Georgia Power can charge its customers for the price of the plant unless the state's elected utility regulators block those costs, forcing losses onto shareholders.
In other news - this dispatchable biomass plant will mean another 1% of our electricity will come from renewables
http://www.rte.ie/news/2015/0607/706493-biomass-plant-mayo/
and this could improve efficiency of all thermal plants , including nuclear by a few %
http://www.gizmag.com/graphene-coated-condensers-power-plant-efficiency/37804/
More competitors - note this will cost more than nuclear because they are starting the learning curve, and nuclear has hundreds of reactors and 70 years of military subsidies to bring costs down
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-33053003
The building of a £1bn tidal lagoon in Swansea Bay has been given the go-ahead by the UK government.
Tidal Lagoon Power (TLP) says it will now negotiate how much subsidy will be paid for the energy.0 -
The TLP one will be interesting - the projected cost has already gone up significantly since it was first mooted - there is also the possible issue of silting and dredging costs inside the lagoons - and while the power produced is totally predictable - and to some extant dispatch can be delayed - it can't be entirely synced to demand .
But if the system works there could be vast potential in it -Slava ukraini 🇺🇦
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Capt'n Midnight wrote: »some of June's crop of unreliable Nuclear power
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UK military snafu
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-devon-33051905More competitors - note this will cost more than nuclear because they are starting the learning curve, and nuclear has hundreds of reactors and 70 years of military subsidies to bring costs down
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-33053003
The building of a £1bn tidal lagoon in Swansea Bay has been given the go-ahead by the UK government.
Tidal Lagoon Power (TLP) says it will now negotiate how much subsidy will be paid for the energy.
In any case, I can see you've decided on a strategy for dealing with the issues I raised in my previous post :rolleyes:
Would you be so kind as to address the 5 glaring holes in your arguments that I outlined in the post above yours? http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=95312812&postcount=1020 -
Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 92,982 Mod ✭✭✭✭Join Date:Posts: 91220
Yes, because military nuclear installations working with submarines submarines are comparable with civilian reactors for energy production.Your list also included transformer failures, which if my basic engineering is accurate, is something that can happen not only in other power plant types, but indeed anywhere in the electricity distribution system.I can think of another reason why it requires subsidies, it's huge! It will require pouring gigatonnes of concrete into the sea, and there are other environmental effects to consider, such as the effect it will have on aquatic life.
Let's not forget that every nuclear power station that's not completed produces a lot of carbon dioxide, and there are lots of them. Proper nuclear economics must take into account the % of construction failures and fixes from all causes.
And of course Nuclear has been getting subsidies from the Military since the 1940's, and fossil fuel is worse.It will be somewhat controllable though, or at least produce according to some kind of pattern, which does make it 1,000,000 times better than wind or solar.0 -
Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 92,982 Mod ✭✭✭✭Join Date:Posts: 91220
Contradiction 1:
But wait a second: hasn't Capt'nMidnight spent this entire thread reassuring us all that installed thermal plant will never be a problem? That there will always be a market for renewables backup and there will never be a shortage of installed traditional plant? That if we ever again have a crisis like Xmas 2010 we can all put on our electric radiators and other electric heaters and not have to worry about being bankrupted or crashing the grid?
peak demand was 5,080MW
please let our readers know what you think our installed capacity was then or admit you are just scaremongering.
I think I see where your confusion lies. It would take over a decade to build nuclear plant so by the time you realise you need extra power it's too late. Gas plants could be built in a few years, if we didn't already have more than enough.
BTW if we had nuclear plant we'd have needed running reserve of at least one full nuclear plant over and above.Contradicition 2:
And why are you quoting the wholesale price in Germany when it has nothing whatsoever to do with what people pay on their electricity bills? Actually, it has a negative relationship: People are paying stupid levels of money in renewables subsidies so that the government can foul up the wholesale market.
It would be nice if electric companies passed on the the wholesale rate to customers. Doesn't happen anywhere , quit pretending it does.Contradiction 3:
Captn'Midnight has yet to explain the 40% figure for French hydro.
http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/Country-Profiles/Countries-A-F/France/
Generating capacity for Hydro is 25.4 GWe hydro which is 40.2% of Nuclear's 63.2 GWe generating capacity.Contradiction 4:
The oppportunity cost of gas.
Perhaps you are getting confused with LPG which a very different animal and is easily converted to a liquid.
LNG can't be compressed to a liquid above it's supercritical temp of -82.6c
it's physicsContradiction 5:
Then how come Wikipedia says the exact opposite?No, I don't. Your claims on this have been shown to be logically inconsistent with the facts on a number of key points, like the 40% hydroelectricity in France that doesn't exist, and the 2013 French lighting law, all of which point to a reeality of a grid much more flexible than you would have us believe.
I really have to ask, has anyone thought about all of this in any meaningful way?
Remind us of what % of peak demand the lighting law applies to ?0 -
Please stop spreading FUD
peak demand was 5,080MW
please let our readers know what you think our installed capacity was then or admit you are just scaremongering.
Djpbarry made the argument that builders of traditional thermal plants were running scared from Germany because the "wholesale price" was so "low." Ignoring of course that the German market is so fubarred with green subsidies that it's a worthless guide to costs, and that the "wholesale price" is violently unstable and goes deep into negative values. And that it costs industry a fortune in damage to industrial processes and UPS/APC type mitigating soluitions.
But you want to spend everyone's money on windmills and solar panels that we know mainly produce power when it's least needed and will all be worse than useless in an anti-cyclone that would see a surge in demand.
Say, 20 years down the line, can you guarantee that there will be plenty of backup plant to deal with a crisis like Christmas 2010? If so, by what means do you suggest such a guarantee would be in place?Been done to death.
It would be nice if electric companies passed on the the wholesale rate to customers. Doesn't happen anywhere , quit pretending it does.
Denial ain't just a river in Egypt.Remind us what % of vehicles on the road use Natural gas ?
But it's a chicken and egg scenario in terms of fuel supply stations and the like. I maintain that wasting gas in power plants is just that - waste.Again I refere you to the difference between LPG and LNG.
It's not just Wikipedia that says LPG is closely related to natural gas, I have other sources:
http://www.explainthatstuff.com/lpg.htmlAbout two thirds of the LPG people use is extracted directly from the Earth in the same way as ordinary natural gas. The rest is manufactured indirectly from petroleum (crude oil) drilled from the Earth in wells in the usual way.
http://www.originenergy.com.au/blog/about-energy/what-is-lpg.htmlLPG is produced during oil refining or is extracted during the natural gas production process. If you release LPG, gas is emitted.I keep pointing out that our grid has a response time in seconds. If there are any nuclear plants that can react that quickly , especially after Xenon poisoning please let us know.
BTW I'm not suggesting building an EPR or similar in Ireland, at least not without multiple links to the UK and a single energy market between both islands.Remind us of what % of peak demand the lighting law applies to ?0 -
Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 92,982 Mod ✭✭✭✭Join Date:Posts: 91220
I don't care what installed capacity was then because it was clearly adequate. My question relates to the future.Say, 20 years down the line, can you guarantee that there will be plenty of backup plant to deal with a crisis like Christmas 2010? If so, by what means do you suggest such a guarantee would be in place?Gas (of any mixture) is not used on the road in any great volume because it has last movers disadvantage.
Natural gas is more akin to hydrogen in the difficulty of storing the stuff. Hydrogen cars have been around since 1807. Not a typo. It even had electric ignition. Over 200 years later the aren't used because gases which have a low critical temperature aren't easy to store.By the same token, if Moneypoint suddenly failed, how fast could you make the wind blow harder over the windmills or the sun shine more over the solar panels? How fast could you ramp up another coal-fired power plant? Seconds? Didn't think so.
If a generator in Moneypoint failed they have to restore 75% of the power within 5 seconds. And 100% of the power within 90 seconds.
Again a reminder these times aren't minutes or hours. They are in seconds. Nuclear power just couldn't respond. In fact the nuclear model of all your eggs in one basket means that spinning reserve in the UK will be sized on the Hinkley C plant, but the cost will have to be borne by all generators.
Asking for wind or sunshine on demand is like asking for a nuclear reactor's unplanned outage to magically fix itself. Except of course you can usually forecast wind. Nuclear outages can happen suddenly and last for years. This is why both renewables and nuclear need to be backed up by rapidly despatchable sources like hydro or gas. Except of course that renewables don't need 35 years of subsidies.BTW I'm not suggesting building an EPR or similar in Ireland, at least not without multiple links to the UK and a single energy market between both islands.None - which is exactly my point. Earlier you claimed that France's nuclear programme only works because the rest of the continent takes its night time surplus. If that's true, then why did they just enact night time lighting laws that would make that troublesome surplus even larger than it already is? Is the system more flexible than you'd have us believe?0 -
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_Tombstone_ wrote: »
Oh great " the climate is still screwed" .
I wonder does that article take any account of electric cars ? And battery technology - ( if domestic rooftop solar is the big thing - and your electric car is at your work place all day - it'll need charging by night - which could come from the grid I know , )Slava ukraini 🇺🇦
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_Tombstone_ wrote: »
I'd be very wary of such predictions. Most have fallen flat on there face like the one about $200 oil by 2010.0 -
I'd be very wary of such predictions. Most have fallen flat on there face like the one about $200 oil by 2010.
I thought the 2010 predictions were for ( horror) $100 a barrel - which got upped pretty quick when oil hit $100.
Still you'd still want to be wary of predictions - as well as their funding -Slava ukraini 🇺🇦
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Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 92,982 Mod ✭✭✭✭Join Date:Posts: 91220
Your list also included transformer failures, which if my basic engineering is accurate, is something that can happen not only in other power plant types, but indeed anywhere in the electricity distribution system.
Like when Homer Simpson pushes the wrong button or doesn't know what the button does because he hasn't ready the manual. Turning a small easily manageable problem into a big one is a nuclear staple.
http://www.lohud.com/story/news/local/indian-point/2015/06/16/indian-point-reactor-shut/28797213/The shutdown occurred at 7:20 p.m., after Consolidated Edison asked Indian Point operators to open an electrical breaker so that workers could safely remove a large Mylar balloon that got tangled in wires leading to the Millwood substation south of the plant.
Soon after that breaker was opened, a second breaker opened, resulting an an automatic shutdown of the reactor, according to Neil Sheehan, spokesman for the Nuclear Regulatory Commission.
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Indian Point supplies about 25 percent of the power used by Westchester County and New York City.0
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