Marriage equality referendum - how will you vote?

oscarBravo

Let's see what would happen if boardsies were deciding the referendum.

Red Silurian

I can see the majority of people abstaining from voting in this referendum

It will come down to the gays vs the religiously conservatives and the winners will essentially be whichever grouping is bigger

Of course there will be a small amount of anti-govt voters cancelled out by straight people whom will always vote no matter what, that will most likely vote pro gay marriage!

eire4

The polls are pointing toward a solid yes vote which is the direction I would go.

Annasopra

eire4 wrote: »

The polls are pointing toward a solid yes vote which is the direction I would go.

Not the latest polls

eire4

Joeytheparrot wrote: »

Not the latest polls

Do share with us this news. The lowest number I could find from a poll earlier this week was 59% being strongly in favour. Still a pretty clear majority.

Annasopra

77% in favour but 46% with some reservations

http://www.thejournal.ie/same-sex-marriage-poll-2-1901346-Jan2015/

A high yes but not necessarily "solid"

eire4

There you go see 77% still said they would vote yes. As I posted myself the most negative poll I could find had 59% voting yes. Personally I think the final vote will end up being a very big win for the yes vote. If say the vote ended up 59% yes and I think it will be higher but if it does up end up at about 59% then that is an 18 point win and that is a pretty big margin of victory really.

Annasopra

eire4 wrote: »

There you go see 77% still said they would vote yes. As I posted myself the most negative poll I could find had 59% voting yes. Personally I think the final vote will end up being a very big win for the yes vote. If say the vote ended up 59% yes and I think it will be higher but if it does up end up at about 59% then that is an 18 point win and that is a pretty big margin of victory really.

You said a solid yes. Its not though. It shows a weakish yes that could be swayed.

eire4

Joeytheparrot wrote: »

You said a solid yes. Its not though. It shows a weakish yes that could be swayed.

Even a 59% yes vote represents an 18 point win thats a big number in any vote. Plus even in the poll you reference the vote was still a strong yes vote even higher then the worst one I found and that is what counts. Find me a poll that shows a no majority or something close to a 50 50 split on the vote and then sure there is an issue but no polls have shown anything along those lines to date.

xsofacouchx

I think its absolutely ridiculous that we have to vote on it in the first place. It shouldn't be my decision whether somebody gets married or not. Marriage Equality should have been legislated years ago!... I'm voting yes and I really hope everybody else does too!

eire4

xsofacouchx wrote: »

I think its absolutely ridiculous that we have to vote on it in the first place. It shouldn't be my decision whether somebody gets married or not. Marriage Equality should have been legislated years ago!... I'm voting yes and I really hope everybody else does too!

Agreed it is a joke that this was not legislated years ago. Sadly that is what we are stuck with thanks to some of the shall we say less then ideal parts of our constitution.

AlanS181824

22 May has been the date set for this!

conorh91

AlanS181824 wrote: »

22 May has been the date set for this!

Ridiculous.

The issue of fathers' rights will be inadequately addressed in the proposed Children and Family Relationships Bill, and then it will be off the agenda for years.

When issues of public importance like this arise, they deserve to be studied and fully subjected to expert consultation, especially at committee stage.

My fear is that this legislation will be rushed through the Oireachtas, and then removed from the agenda for years to come.

All for what?

What is the point of having this referendum in May, as opposed to say, September? If they want it passed so badly, why not give them an extra-long run at it, and deal with this legislation properly? It's stupid. Completely stupid and self-destructive. It will harm the desired outcome of the referendum, and it is not in the best interests of children.

It's the day before the eurovision

Ren2k7

Joeytheparrot wrote: »

77% in favour but 46% with some reservations

http://www.thejournal.ie/same-sex-marriage-poll-2-1901346-Jan2015/

A high yes but not necessarily "solid"

Well actually, 77% IS a solid yes. It's nearly four-fifths of the electorate supporting same sex marriage.

Annasopra

Ren2k7 wrote: »

Well actually, 77% IS a solid yes. It's nearly four-fifths of the electorate supporting same sex marriage.

You're missing the point. A large amount of that 77% have reservations.

Ren2k7

Joeytheparrot wrote: »

You're missing the point. A large amount of that 77% have reservations.

But a yes is still a yes regardless of any reservations. The referendum is a simple yes or no. There won't be any way for those people to express such reservations, it's a binary issue.

If these people did have concerns that would make them undecided on the issue, no? And as we've seen pretty much all polls have the yes side with a comfortable majority.

Annasopra

Ren2k7 wrote: »

But a yes is still a yes regardless of any reservations.

No. Research has shown the vast majority of voters decide in the week before the referendum - so if someone says yes in January but they have some reservations and the no side has managed to play on those they could vote no despite indicating a yes in the earlier poll.

Polls are notorious for this. Divorce referenda polls showed a solid yes both times but this didnt happen. Same with Seanad and Childrens rights referendum.

AlanS181824

A Tyrant Named Miltiades! wrote: »

It's the day before the eurovision

Since when have we had gifs on Boards?

Could this year get any more fabulous?!

Ren2k7

Joeytheparrot wrote: »

No. Research has shown the vast majority of voters decide in the week before the referendum - so if someone says yes in January but they have some reservations and the no side has managed to play on those they could vote no despite indicating a yes in the earlier poll.

Polls are notorious for this. Divorce referenda polls showed a solid yes both times but this didnt happen. Same with Seanad and Childrens rights referendum.

We'll just have to wait and see. But I'm still expecting a comfortable yes. This isn't the Ireland of the 80's and 90's.

Owryan

I ll be voting yes, purely so my brother can marry his partner and I get a free dinner .

My big concern is the numbers in favour of voting yes. Purely as a sample in my class in college a quick survey suggested 50% yes, 30% no, 20% don't know, very rough figures.

However almost half of those who would vote yes have never voted or are registered to. Then there is the issue of whether they will register in Carlow or their home town.

In contrast most of those who say no are more mature and are regular voters.

My big worry is that many potential yes voters won't or can't vote when the time comes.

Annasopra

AlanS181824 wrote: »

Since when have we had gifs on Boards?

Could this year get any more fabulous?!

Yes

LGBT Noise are hosting a March for Marriage on Sunday March 17th which is IDAHOT day - International Day Against Homophobia and Transphobia
The 22nd of May, referendum day is Harvey Milk Day.

eire4

Ren2k7 wrote: »

We'll just have to wait and see. But I'm still expecting a comfortable yes. This isn't the Ireland of the 80's and 90's.

I would tend to agree with you there. I think this will end up as a comfortable yes in the end. But as you say we will have to wait and see.

conorh91

Joeytheparrot wrote: »

Yes

LGBT Noise are hosting a March for Marriage on Sunday March 17th which is IDAHOT day - International Day Against Homophobia and Transphobia

St Patrick's Day?

I hope that's an error...

Annasopra

conorh91 wrote: »

St Patrick's Day?

I hope that's an error...

Oops - May

Permabear

This post has been deleted.

indy_man

Must read article on the subject from the Irish Times.

http://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/head-to-head-why-we-should-vote-against-the-same-sex-marriage-referendum-1.2100166

NZT73

oscarBravo wrote: »

Let's see what would happen if boardsies were deciding the referendum.

"boardsies"?

Yes I'm sure this poll will tell us a lot

Like one of those elections where the only candidate gets 110 percent of the vote

oscarBravo

NZT73 wrote: »

Like one of those elections where the only candidate gets 110 percent of the vote

Yes, exactly like that.

Apart from the fact that the "yes" side has 86% of the vote.

But other than that: yes, exactly like that.

NZT73

oscarBravo wrote: »

Yes, exactly like that.

Apart from the fact that the "yes" side has 86% of the vote.

But other than that: yes, exactly like that.

In other words it's a corrupt poll because people like you get rid of all the opposition to your opinions

Would you like me to explain that down to the atoms

oscarBravo

NZT73 wrote: »

In other words it's a corrupt poll because people like you get rid of all the opposition to your opinions

Waa waa waa I'm being oppressed.

Would you like me to explain that down to the atoms

You explained your bigotry very succinctly in the other thread, thanks. We have nothing further to discuss.

purplecow1977

I will vote yes

Henry94

On the basis that it will give some people a chance of happiness at zero cost to myself I can't see a single good reason for not voting for this proposal.

Jim2007

Henry94 wrote: »

On the basis that it will give some people a chance of happiness at zero cost to myself I can't see a single good reason for not voting for this proposal.

Well that is why the No campaign sounds so hollow, homosexuality has existed since time began and is well documented in history at least as far back as the Romans. Voting Yes is not going to cause society to fall apart at this stage.

bopper

Latest poll results just released from the Sunday Business Post:

Yes - 72%
No - 20%
Und - 8%

Excluding undecided - Yes 78% and No 22%

eire4

bopper wrote: »

Latest poll results just released from the Sunday Business Post:

Yes - 72%
No - 20%
Und - 8%

Excluding undecided - Yes 78% and No 22%

Saw that today. The yes numbers are holding are well so far.

Ozymandius2011

bopper wrote: »

Latest poll results just released from the Sunday Business Post:

Yes - 72%
No - 20%
Und - 8%

Excluding undecided - Yes 78% and No 22%

Yes but according to thejournal.ie those are only the figures for those most likely to vote. For the entire sample the figures are 68% yes, 22% no and 10% DK.

On the charge of "redefining marriage". Are the no side also against redefining marriage when we banned marital rape in 1990? Or when we ended the marriage ban in the civil service? Or when married women were given a legal personality in the 19th century? Because before then the nature of marriage in the eyes of the law allowed men to beat their wives and legally they did not exist.

Duffy the Vampire Slayer

I won't be in the country to vote but I would definitely vote yes if I could.

Ozymandius2011

bopper wrote: »

Latest poll results just released from the Sunday Business Post:

Yes - 72%
No - 20%
Und - 8%

Excluding undecided - Yes 78% and No 22%

I think that has been out since early April.

bopper

Ozymandius2011 wrote: »

I think that has been out since early April.

I'm not sure when the poll took place, but the results weren't released until April 25th. That was the first Red C poll since the end of January.

C14N

I'm voting yes. At least I hope I am, I handed in my RFA2 last Friday and I'm still not on the register. I'm a bit worried since I was changing address and I found out after that RFA2 is for first-time voters, even though the form had a box asking if you had been previously registered and what the previously registered address was. I even came into the Garda Station with an RFA3 but it had a mistake on it so they gave me an RFA2 instead. At the same time I took my name off the previous register months ago so maybe this does count as signing up again.

Anyway if it does work then of course I'll be out to vote yes. It's completely unfathomable to me that anyone but the most hardcore religious people would be against it. I'm expecting it to pass but I've heard apathy is the big thing that might stop it (which is what stopped me being so apathetic and gave me the initiative to sign myself up again). If there's one thing that makes me proud to be Irish, it's that we're generally fairly sound and we're not going to go getting up in someone else's face if they want to do something harmless like marry someone of the same sex.

Ozymandius2011

C14N wrote: »

I'm voting yes. At least I hope I am, I handed in my RFA2 last Friday and I'm still not on the register. I'm a bit worried since I was changing address and I found out after that RFA2 is for first-time voters, even though the form had a box asking if you had been previously registered and what the previously registered address was. I even came into the Garda Station with an RFA3 but it had a mistake on it so they gave me an RFA2 instead. At the same time I took my name off the previous register months ago so maybe this does count as signing up again.

Anyway if it does work then of course I'll be out to vote yes. It's completely unfathomable to me that anyone but the most hardcore religious people would be against it. I'm expecting it to pass but I've heard apathy is the big thing that might stop it (which is what stopped me being so apathetic and gave me the initiative to sign myself up again). If there's one thing that makes me proud to be Irish, it's that we're generally fairly sound and we're not going to go getting up in someone else's face if they want to do something harmless like marry someone of the same sex.

Dont put too much stall in the online register. One time a few years ago I was missing from it but after I phoned the council I was on the actual register.

raze_them_all_

I would love to vote no as I don't believe in marriage, but I shall be voting yes as I don't believe in telling people who they can and can't marry

Hamadeusentman

"You can't start a herd with two bulls. Vote No." Spotted this massive homemade sign in a field this morning on way to work. Made me chuckle.

Mr.Nice Guy

Considering the 'shy Tory' effect completely bamboozled the pollsters during the British General Election, as a Yes supporter I'm concerned there could be a similar effect to the 'Yes' support indicated in polls for the referendum.

Is it possible that a large degree of those telling pollsters they'll be voting Yes are simply too embarrassed to say they will be voting No?

Annasopra

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Considering the 'shy Tory' effect completely bamboozled the pollsters during the British General Election, as a Yes supporter I'm concerned there could be a similar effect to the 'Yes' support indicated in polls for the referendum.

Is it possible that a large degree of those telling pollsters they'll be voting Yes are simply too embarrassed to say they will be voting No?

Yes

And thats why everyone who really wants this to pass should get out on the streets and help the Yes Equality campaign

C14N

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Considering the 'shy Tory' effect completely bamboozled the pollsters during the British General Election, as a Yes supporter I'm concerned there could be a similar effect to the 'Yes' support indicated in polls for the referendum.

Is it possible that a large degree of those telling pollsters they'll be voting Yes are simply too embarrassed to say they will be voting No?

I imagine that the polls do try to account for stuff like that as much as possible. The case of the British referendum was also heavily influenced by their crazy FPTP voting system, in terms of popular vote the Tories weren't miles out in front.