COLD SPELL Jan 28th Onwards: Wintry Showers/Frosty, Some Snow Accumulations

M.T. Cranium

Even within the GFS perturbations, quite a range of snowfall potentials, would say from traces to 25 cm (on the early Tuesday risk). Note also how winds come around to northeast as the low drops south. I don't want to go all in yet but will be giving a considerable risk sort of forecast at this point. The early Monday risk looks fairly confined to Limerick, Cork and higher parts of Kerry.

force eleven

Met E latest less bullish than yesterday regarding organised and widespread sleet/snow for Monday.Then strong High Pressure dominating after Tuesday right through next weekend and beyond. I can see it getting very quiet in here unless output shows dramatic change.

Rebelbrowser

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Even within the GFS perturbations, quite a range of snowfall potentials, would say from traces to 25 cm (on the early Tuesday risk). Note also how winds come around to northeast as the low drops south. I don't want to go all in yet but will be giving a considerable risk sort of forecast at this point. The early Monday risk looks fairly confined to Limerick, Cork and higher parts of Kerry.

Met Es 5am forecast on their website seems unaware of any specific bands of precipitation and shows rain icons on the it maps?

Rebelbrowser

From what I can see:-

Gfs sees snowfall from the Monday morning event reaching Kerry, West Cork (maybe touching the city) and some of Limerick / Clare. It sees Tuesday mornings event as giving widespread snow.

Ecm obviously gives limited info and also only gives charts for 24 hr periods. It seems to think Mondays event will stay out to sea off Kerry (subject to correction) and it's hard to say what it thinks of Tuesdays event.

Euro 4 (hi res) shows Monday as a non event with precipitation at sea while at 48 hrs being 12 am on Tuesday morning it shows a band of precipitation about to move south over ulster and presumably onto the rest of us but hard to say if it would be significant or widespread.

Yrno is the same as Euro 4 (which puts the odds firmly against Monday I would have thought).

Will know a lot more around 11 am when the Euro 4 6z is out as it will go out until 6 am on Tuesday morning.

Pangea

Covering of snow here, no depth or anything but a nice white covering.

Fear_an_tarbh

Letterkenny is all white this morning again, more than Thursday this time, a good 2cm or so :-)

Mental Mickey

Pangea wrote: »

Covering of snow here, no depth or anything but a nice white covering.

Where?

WheatenBriar

Radio one forecast presented by the eagle says no to Monday night Tuesday's frontal snow event.
It also says no to Irish Sea streamers.
That's based on the 00z ECM no doubt which at this distance has to be taken seriously.

NIMAN

Roads were very slippery this morning in North Donegal, don't think they were gritted last night.

Probably the cagiest drive I have had this entire winter.

FWVT

There seems now to be no issue over precipitation for Monday night/Tuesday, with all models in rough agreement on a wide band of precip across the western half of the country and lighter further east ECM, GEM). The GFS has more for the east. The question now is will the low levels be cold enough for snow. I think yes, for a lot of people, but it could be sleet/ wet snow in the west during the heaviest precip, turning more to better snow as the band passes. The sounding for somewhere in Connemara below shows a very deep cold saturated level, but a warm surface layer with wbt above zero (blue line). This, not dewpoint, is the determining factor for solid vs liquid precip and is the limit of any evaporative cooling. WBT above arou d 0.5 °C means very wet snow or sleet.

But the sounding shows a much colder and drier layer setting in behind, with wbt around -1 °C, so any precip would be snow.

Further east conditions would be better for snow, however it remains to be seen how much precip there actuall is. There should at least be a few hours of some sort of level of snow for many, but again wbt will be hovering around zero and above, so snow could be of the wet variety.

Graces7

Just been out for my morning inspection Mountains a little more intense covering than last evening and the range to the east has a good frosting. Blissfully calm and very cold. So we are I think in what the airline call a holding pattern? ;)A good foundation for any snow certainly and a wonderful chance for all the fit ones here to go a climbing, with great care of course.. enjoy!

Pangea

Yay, snowing away here now in Donegal, first proper fall of the winter.

JanuarySnowstor

For Cork tonight and tomorrow morning looks very interesting as this frontal band moves up over us for a few hours at least. Has the potential to catch Met Eireann out as even though it only grazes cork and kerry it would affect upwards of 400,000 people.

The 06z in a few minutes will give us a better idea of what's happening.

Tuesday looks more solid for a nationwide event and I would expect an early warning by tonight if models continue trend

maquiladora

ECM/HIRLAM has further downgraded Tuesday mornings snow prospects, sending most of the precip to Scotland where it fizzles out, just light showery stuff here.

Still showing that other little low bringing some sleet/snow to west/southwest Monday evening/night though.

Oneiric 3

Still a nice dusting here this morning. Not deep by any means but still nice to see





Temp currently 0.1c. Dew point -1.0

redsteveireland

Woke up to the icing sugar look, just a slight sprinkling frozen onto everything.

Mental Mickey

Nothing in Dublin West

WheatenBriar

Such a range of opinions

Latest BBC news24 forecast there now went to Tuesday
It basically mirrored the fax Kermit posted last night,that thing of beauty because do ya know what it had the occlusion slipping south south east down the eastern half of the country giving a period of snow from Louth to Waterford

But do ya know, what follows is a NE flow so can only hope the suggestion of last night's fax for a high linking to Icland allowing a very much increasingly colder feed north of Scandinavia to drop trough after trough south southwest for a near bullseye

Let's see

It had tonight/Monday mornings system slip away avoiding the SW altogether

NMB

I am biting my fingernails - rollercoaster is definitely rolling !

maquiladora

06Z HIRLAM has sleet/snow for the west/southwest Monday night....and then pretty much totally dry everywhere after that on Tuesday morning. No nationwide snow event.

Philip7304

maquiladora wrote: »

06Z HIRLAM has sleet/snow for the west/southwest Monday night....and then pretty much totally dry everywhere after that on Tuesday morning. No nationwide snow event.

Noooo...I feel like I'm on some sort of Bi-POLAR rollercoaster ..Cant take it any more..Someone give me a slap and make it better...

YanSno

Gfs 6z still has a widespread snow event on Tuesday

JanuarySnowstor

Your like the grim reaper of late maq!! Lol

Gfs precipitation charts are usually very accurate and there much better

Also 06z gives us a frigid easterly flow by end of week

maquiladora

YanSno wrote: »

Gfs 6z still has a widespread snow event on Tuesday

At 48 hours range, HIRLAM/ECM beats the GFS almost every single time though.

Even then, the 06Z GFS only shows a dusting of 0.5cm to 1cm for most parts south of Ulster. Not much of an event even it that did happen. Now Scotland on the other hand....

FWVT

maquiladora wrote: »

06Z HIRLAM has sleet/snow for the west/southwest Monday night....and then pretty much totally dry everywhere after that on Tuesday morning. No nationwide snow event.

Remember that these are just 1-hr totals (with minimum of 0.5-1.0 mm/hr shown), while other charts show 3 or 6-hr totals. So even a rate of 0.1 mm/hr water-equivalent could still equate to 2-5 mm (i.e. a dusting) of snow per hour or a few cms per 6 hrs.

United road

maquiladora wrote: »

ECM/HIRLAM has further downgraded Tuesday mornings snow prospects, sending most of the precip to Scotland where it fizzles out, just light showery stuff here.

Still showing that other little low bringing some sleet/snow to west/southwest Monday evening/night though.

Oh no!!
Please say it isnt so!

Its over to Kermit now to give me some hope!!
I will be hitting the refresh button all morning now in anticipation!

rickdangerouss

I think what is happening is, every time someone refreshes these pages and adds coments, one snow flake for Tuesday dies.

Please, stop killing them.

maquiladora

Don't shoot the messenger guys.

Take a look at the HIRLAM animation yourself, the west/southwest should see some snow but then it's looking dry everywhere apart from some light coastal stuff in the west (which it shows as rain anyway). There is no nationwide frontal snow event on this model. Just trying to set realistic expectations. Things looked better a couple of days ago, but things change.


http://www.ilmateenistus.ee/ilm/prognoosid/mudelprognoosid/euroopa/?lang=en#layers/sadufaas

RED L4 0TH

Good covering on Nephin this morning.

Schadenfreudia

Snowline at about 800 feet; no change since yesterday. No new snow either!