COLD SPELL Jan 28th Onwards: Wintry Showers/Frosty, Some Snow Accumulations

lolie

maquiladora wrote: »

12Z HIRLAM for Monday and Tuesday. You can see the sleet/snow (pink/blue) in parts of the west and southwest Monday night with the following Tuesday looking very dry. No nationwide event here.

Mag what's your take on it at the minute, would you favour that or the gfs or somewhere in the middle?

Harps

Nice shot of Ireland today, lying snow shown in blue mostly confined to high ground

Baggy Trousers

Harps wrote: »

Nice shot of Ireland today, lying snow shown in blue mostly confined to high ground

Lovely photo, what site is it from?

maquiladora

12Z Euro4 has now come into line with the HIRLAM. Accumulated precip for the next 48 hours is zero for eastern parts. Western parts set to get a few cm of snow Monday night. As usual a couple of lucky spots will get a bit more wherever the showers set up, but that will be radar watching time.

Looking forward to seeing some pictures from the lucky ones Tuesday morning. :cool:

Villain

Baggy Trousers wrote: »

Lovely photo, what site is it from?

http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?subset=United_Kingdom_Ireland.201511

True Colour image:

rockdrummer4

Some pics from today in wickla

rockdrummer4

Pic2

Kermit.de.frog

Euro4 has the precipitation much further west tomorrow night.

rockdrummer4

Pic3

Rebelbrowser

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Euro4 has the precipitation much further west tomorrow night.

From an Imby prospective I note on the next frame that's it's turned to rain in the middle of the day by the time it hits the south coast (can't post charts). On the plus side even before then tomorrow mornings event is a very close run thing by midday here so that could yet work out well.

redsteveireland

maquiladora wrote: »

12Z Euro4 has now come into line with the HIRLAM. Accumulated precip for the next 48 hours is zero for eastern parts. Western parts set to get a few cm of snow Monday night. As usual a couple of lucky spots will get a bit more wherever the showers set up, but that will be radar watching time.

Looking forward to seeing some pictures from the lucky ones Tuesday morning. :cool:

I'll take that. Not far off the 5mm acc there.

JCX BXC

So for west clare how's Monday/Tuesday looking? I don't think I've ever been so unsure of the next days weather!

Oneiric 3

Chart for 25th January 1917, which brought some of the worst blizzards ever recorded in this country with over a foot of snow falling in the south. Can't even comprehend that we'll ever see charts like this again in our modern age. Even anything the 2009 / 2010 episodes produced looked paltry against this.



A good summation of the event here: http://www.met.ie/climate-ireland/weather-events/HeavySnows1917.pdf

Anyway, back to our few cm here and there potential in 2015..

Reckless Abandonment

From an East coast perspective we look to be relying on streamers coming off the irish sea.. but then again maybe we are due one of them magic last minute upgrades

Villain

The NMM4 High Res from 12z shows some snow fall a little further east than others but not very heavy and dies out pretty quick.

Villain

Compare Siobhan's forecast just now to Jeans the other evening!

She gave widespread snow showers with some accumulations at lower levels for Monday night.

Trogdor

Reckless Abandonment wrote: »

From an East coast perspective we look to be relying on streamers coming off the irish sea.. but then again maybe we are due one of them magic last minute upgrades

Only thing is that with the prospect of frontal snow, winds would have been off the land and it probably would have been snow right to the coast. If we are relying on streamers then i think they will be more of a rain/sleet/snow mix in coastal locations as the winds will be off the relatively warmer sea. Maybe some brief accumulations at sea level if there are any particularly heavy streamers.

Lenny5

Looks like there cud be a decent amount of snow for many Monday nightly according to Siobhan on news just there. Dry and cold after that!

Gonzo

looks like we might scrape a dusting at best in the east, serious downgrade since yesterday in terms of snowfall, it will still be cold tho, plenty of cold over the next week, unfortunately it will just be mainly clear, dry and sunny. good for walking and being outside tho.

FWVT

Just on the hirlams, I think the Estonian ETA version has a resolution of 0.125 ° while the DMI has 0.05 °. The DMI 12Z shows plenty of precip over the whole country during early Tuesday, with up to 2 mm/hr rates, even in the east. I think the upper dynamics for tomorrow are still a little uncertain, hence the discrepancies.

Anyway, whatever will happen will happen, no matter how much model watching and forecasting takes place. Wishcasting has yet to be proven as a scientifically viable method of controlling the weather.

Rebelbrowser

FWVT wrote: »

Wishcasting has yet to be proven as a scientifically viable method of controlling the weather.

Yet to be. I'm still working on proving it!

WheatenBriar

Trogdor wrote: »

Only thing is that with the prospect of frontal snow, winds would have been off the land and it probably would have been snow right to the coast. If we are relying on streamers then i think they will be more of a rain/sleet/snow mix in coastal locations as the winds will be off the relatively warmer sea. Maybe some brief accumulations at sea level if there are any particularly heavy streamers.

Aye,I have BBC one Wales and ITV Wales here on my free view aerial so I see their local news programmes,and they have been getting showers off the Irish Sea all week but none of it newsworthy
The dynamics just aren't there enough

Also,air temp today got above 5c again in Arklow and even now,it's above zero (just)
That's not a sign of a true cold spell to be honest
That said,I think do ya know Su is on to something in terms of there being enough precip on that front throughout the country tomorrow night and Tuesday to be noticed

horsefarm

We will
We won't
We will
We won't
This is flippin torture. MT said I'm getting 25cms so I'll just go with that thanks

Grandeeod

I'll be keeping the electric blankie on regardless!

Iancar29

Villain wrote: »

The NMM4 High Res from 12z shows some snow fall a little further east than others but not very heavy and dies out pretty quick.

The 12km one would be approaching an Orange alert IMO for for ulster and most of Leinster. With it being a frontal event lots of disruption could be a result of it.


Thickness is perfect for all to fall as snow .

Kermit.de.frog

Down to -1 c at Dublin Airport and -2 c at Casement already this evening. Might touch -5 c locally inland tonight.

JCX BXC

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

UPDATE _ Sunday 1st of February, 2015 _ 1900h
_____________________________________________

For Tuesday's snow potential, I am still cautiously optimistic (if you like snow, that is) for outbreaks of 5-10 cm at least in various parts of the country, most notably higher portions of the northwest, and inland central Leinster. The range continues to be quite large from available guidance and upper temperatures are not quite "perfect" either, suggesting that some showers close to sea level could fall as sleet or hail. Will upgrade the watch to an alert for Tuesday if I retain this level of optimism or better by the Monday morning forecast.

Meanwhile, ALERT is now in place for a limited area of 2-5 cm snowfalls late tonight across parts of west Munster. Areas such as Abbeyfeale, Newcastle West, Mallow, and most of west Cork away from the immediate coast, as well as higher inland parts of Kerry, are included in this alert. I don't currently see this snowfall likely to reach quite as far east as Ennis, Limerick (city) or east Cork but there could be scattered flurries there as well as in a few other areas further north too. This snow could be mixed with freezing drizzle and some roads in west Munster could become very slippery before dawn. Confidence is about 70% on this event as it is both weak and somewhat marginal.

The Tuesday event would be considerably more widespread and has the potential to include some heavy falls of snow if everything comes together. Next update likely to be with the morning forecast around 0630 to 0700h.

Check the snowfall threads for other updates and perspectives.

MT has posted an update on the forecast this evening. It basically echos the view of most here, we dont know if its going to snow or rain, and we dont know where this snow or rain will happen.

Cantona's Collars

I await Co.Wexford to be bathed in sunshine for the week as the rest get something.

Villain

All eyes on the Countryfile forecast coming up on BBC1 shortly

Kermit.de.frog

There is more concensus for the snow to be in the west of the country mostly tomorrow night right now with some snow showers coming on to the east coast at times Tuesday and Wednesday. Looks like it will be tomorrow morning before we could call it. I agree that a call can't be made tonight.