COLD SPELL Jan 28th Onwards: Wintry Showers/Frosty, Some Snow Accumulations

snowstorm445

icesnowfrost wrote: »

baby its cold outside

Jaysus -22C in Dublin? Definitely felt quite parky outside, that's for sure! :eek:

vistafinder

Walking + Snow = One very happy and excited dog.


untitled-2230.jpg by vistafind, on Flickr


untitled-2222.jpg by vistafind, on Flickr


untitled-2238.jpg by vistafind, on Flickr

Snowball fight


untitled-2254.jpg by vistafind, on Flickr


untitled-2263.jpg by vistafind, on Flickr

We might all end up this deep in snow before Wednesday,,,

untitled-2259.jpg by vistafind, on Flickr

Then again maybe not. Who knows haa

hollster2

Villain wrote: »

Yep 15 out of the 25 Met Eireann stations reported temps of 0c or below at 21:00 with Gurteen in Tipp lowest at -3c, while my station has hit -4.1c

Villain do you think we might get some snow around these parts?

JCX BXC

vistafinder wrote: »

Walking + Snow = One very happy and excited dog.

Im not an exceptional dog lover but I have to say thats so cute!

Villain

hollster2 wrote: »

Villain do you think we might get some snow around these parts?

Very hard to call at present I would say a dusting with maybe a few lucky areas getting maybe 3cm - 5cm but you are probably just a little too far East on this occasion

hollster2

Villain wrote: »

Very hard to call at present I would say a dusting with maybe a few lucky areas getting maybe 3cm - 5cm but you are probably just a little too far East on this occasion

aww well atleast some will get to have fun

vistafinder

Carnacalla wrote: »

Im not an exceptional dog lover but I have to say thats so cute!

I had a pain in my stomach from laughing at her.

The shear happiness on her face.

a bit like myself ahem

Baggy Trousers

The smaller roads here in west Galway are already lethal. Tomorrow should be fun.

Kermit.de.frog

It's not getting any clearer

RED L4 0TH

Main area of precipitation seems to have shifted eastward compared to earlier run.

kittyn

vistafinder wrote: »

Walking + Snow = One very happy and excited dog.


untitled-2230.jpg by vistafind, on Flickr


untitled-2222.jpg by vistafind, on Flickr


untitled-2238.jpg by vistafind, on Flickr

Snowball fight


untitled-2254.jpg by vistafind, on Flickr


untitled-2263.jpg by vistafind, on Flickr

We might all end up this deep in snow before Wednesday,,,

untitled-2259.jpg by vistafind, on Flickr

Then again maybe not. Who knows haa

Now there is a post with photos that made me smile thanks for sharing

Villain

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

It's not getting any clearer

Yep Harmonie has nothing crossing the Shannon while cork see plenty!

JanuarySnowstor

Any update on the 18 maq or do you only deliver bad news lol?

The gfs has upgraded the potential over the last couple of runs and is now identical to what it showed 2 days ago ie a snow fest

It isn't often we get a bite at nationwide snow indeed even 2010 was more notable for severe cold.

My punt is 2 inches plus for Cork

D.Campbell

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Any update on the 18 maq or do you only deliver bad news lol?

The gfs has upgraded the potential over the last couple of runs and is now identical to what it showed 2 days ago ie a snow fest

It isn't often we get a bite at nationwide snow indeed even 2010 was more notable for severe cold.

My punt is 2 inches plus for Cork

My iPhone said that hours ago funny that

icesnowfrost

theres that low.

yorlum11

RED L4 0TH wrote: »

Main area of precipitation seems to have shifted eastward compared to earlier run.

Looks good for many areas. Only issue is that N/E wind will be strong and might push system out S/W before it reaches east coast. Possible streamers then for the East.

FWVT

On Monday I posted the 5-day accumulated precip chart for up to yesterday 12Z. This is it. Below it is my (badly drawn) chart of actual totals based on synop reports. Broadly speaking the south and east did get more than forecast while the north and west got less. That band through south Ulster and north midlands/Leinster stands out, due to those training snow showers that set up on Wednesday.

So I suppose we can say that that we should take treat these charts cautiously in convective setups.

maquiladora

18Z HIRLAM downgrades the amount of sleet/snow even more for Monday/Tuesday. Mainly confined to the southwest now with less in the west. Elsewhere looking mostly dry.

barney 20v

Does any agreement exist on mon night / Tuesday morn at all in here?

MT seems confident about east coast prospects as do Met ....
Other "regular" contributors are dismissing all but SW and W from snow.
Surely 24 hours out it should be clearer than it's being made out to be on here...!

JCX BXC

The weather station is forecasting snow:P

downwiththatsor

Met Eireann update / upgrade?;)

01 February 2015 22:53

Today Very cold and frosty overnight, with a risk of icy stretches on roads. Many areas will be dry, but scattered wintry showers will occur, mainly along Atlantic coasts at first, but spreading further inland across the southwest, west and north by morning, with the risk of snow accumulating in a few places inland. Patches of mist and fog also, in slack winds. Minimum temperatures zero to minus 4 C.


Tomorrow

Monday will be a very cold day, with sunny spells developing in most places, but some scattered wintry showers will occur, becoming more widespread across Connacht and west Munster later. Maximum temperatures 3 to 7 Celsius, in a light northerly or variable breeze.

Outlook

Monday night will be cold with outbreaks of rain, sometimes falling as sleet and snow, particularly over western areas and over hills and mountains. Temperatures will be well below freezing with light winds over land, becoming fresh along western coasts. Some low level accumulations may occur by morning.

Tuesday: Wintry showers will continue with occasional falls of snow, especially on the higher ground. Temperatures will remain low in northerly breezes; highest values 2 to 5 degrees. Severe frost again overnight.

Kermit.de.frog

The GFS is consistent across it's ensemble suite for tomorrow night. Euro4 will be out shortly so we'll see how consistent it is with the previous run.

JanuarySnowstor

I believe the gfs ppn charts to be exceptionally accurate.
In general the gfs has been performing quite well this Winter particularly since it got upgraded.

The beeb charts are also a favourite of mine and they are also in agreement so it's game on as far as I'm concerned

Kermit.de.frog

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

The beeb charts are also a favourite of mine and they are also in agreement so it's game on as far as I'm concerned

The charts used by the UK Met Office for the BBC are the Euro4 charts. They change every 6 hours so the forecast is not going to be the same now as it was earlier today in terms of graphics.

Rougies

barney 20v wrote: »

Does any agreement exist on mon night / Tuesday morn at all in here?

MT seems confident about east coast prospects as do Met ....
Other "regular" contributors are dismissing all but SW and W from snow.
Surely 24 hours out it should be clearer than it's being made out to be on here...!

I don't think anybody's dismissing anything yet. It's more of a discussion on various model's output and trying to make sense of things. Broadly speaking it's ECM vs. GFS on whether the precip. will be confined to the west or will be more widespread, with GFS sticking to it's guns on the latter. It's a tough one to call

Smidge

Rougies wrote: »

I don't think anybody's dismissing anything yet. It's more of a discussion on various model's output and trying to make sense of things. Broadly speaking it's ECM vs. GFS on whether the precip. will be confined to the west or will be more widespread, with GFS sticking to it's guns on the latter. It's a tough one to call

But, in general, isnt the ECM the more reliable of the two?

barney 20v

Rougies wrote: »

I don't think anybody's dismissing anything yet. It's more of a discussion on various model's output and trying to make sense of things. Broadly speaking it's ECM vs. GFS on whether the precip. will be confined to the west or will be more widespread, with GFS sticking to it's guns on the latter. It's a tough one to call

If ye can't call it at 24 hours out boys and girls I recommend stop trying and let's see what's about to happen.

Rougies

Smidge wrote: »

But, in general, isnt the ECM the more reliable of the two?

Yes, but the GFS has won many a battle too. GFS did better for storm Juno in the US recently for example.

BLIZZARD7

Smidge wrote: »

But, in general, isnt the ECM the more reliable of the two?

Any differences between models +24hrs out should, in theory, be minimal.

This is a tough one to call... My gut says snow will be more widespread than is being shown- depths are anyone's guess though. Hopefully we will have a clearer picture in the morning but I can see this being a nowcast situation looking at the radar to see what precipitation is around.

Rougies

barney 20v wrote: »

If ye can't call it at 24 hours out boys and girls I recommend stop trying and let's see what's about to happen.

But these are the best times to try to call it! You go watch your lampost :pac: