COLD SPELL Jan 28th Onwards: Wintry Showers/Frosty, Some Snow Accumulations

JanuarySnowstor

Expect a warning from met eireann before noon today

Baggy Trousers

Serious question, do large lakes (Mask/Corrib) have an influence on snowfall? I have noticed that areas around those lakes get less snow than areas more than 5 miles away.

redsteveireland

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Here's where the ECM has the highest snow potential for early tomorrow morning (6z)




Meanwhile, the GFS 00z has snow falling over a wider area as the front pushes through:




Here locally, currently under a thick layer of Altostratus yet temp is still only -1.0c (Dp -2.0) with a with a fairly dense smoke haze. Not a breath of wind either. Classic wintry weather!

That's what the charts say, I'm interested in your opinion on snowfall potential? Mainly because you are near me.

icesnowfrost

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Expect a warning from met eireann before noon today

as i said yesterday, red faced for met eireann :rolleyes:

JanuarySnowstor

-5 across the southwest wed morning.....gfs reckons snow on the ground lowering temps

maquiladora

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Here's where the ECM has the highest snow potential for early tomorrow morning (6z)




Meanwhile, the GFS 00z has snow falling over a wider area as the front pushes through:




Here locally, currently under a thick layer of Altostratus yet temp is still only -1.0c (Dp -2.0) with a with a fairly dense smoke haze. Not a breath of wind either. Classic wintry weather!

Never once seen the GFS beat the ECM/HIRLAM at 24-36 hours. Should be interesting.

Rebelbrowser

maquiladora wrote: »

Never once seen the GFS beat the ECM/HIRLAM at 24-36 hours. Should be interesting.

The Euro 04 is pretty snowy too though, isn't it (see below)? Forgive my ignorance, but who runs Euro 04, is it affiliated to the ECMWF?

Snowchaser

icesnowfrost wrote: »

as i said yesterday, red faced for met eireann :rolleyes:

The usual classic stuff from Met Eireann. A warning during the event.

WheatenBriar

maquiladora wrote: »

Never once seen the GFS beat the ECM/HIRLAM at 24-36 hours. Should be interesting.

But didn't the ECM yesterday have no precipitation in the SW whereas the gfs did according to rebel browsers post yesterday morning anyway ?

Baggy Trousers

I am lost, what is the synopsis for today in Galway?

Rebelbrowser

WheatenBriar wrote: »

But didn't the ECM yesterday have no precipitation in the SW whereas the gfs did according to rebel browsers post yesterday morning anyway ?

In fairness Maq has posted a chart on the other page showing I was wrong for ECM. I think the High Res models though had nothing over county Cork but Maq's post has me doubting myself on that too!

finlma

Baggy Trousers wrote: »

I am lost, what is the synopsis for today in Galway?

I'm presuming Galway city and the rest of the Atlantic coast will see rainy sleet early tomorrow morning. As usual you'll need to go further inland before it turns to snow.

KingdomRushed

The GFS 6z has a front making it as far east as Kildare/Offaly sort of area with widespread snow north and west of that. And in southern inland.

Dublin doesn't look in line for anything. Little evidence of streamer activity being widespread after either, what shows is projected for Wicklow rather than Dublin

NMB

KingdomRushed wrote: »

The GFS 6z has a front making it as far east as Kildare/Offaly sort of area with widespread snow north and west of that. And in southern inland.

Dublin doesn't look in line for anything. Little evidence of streamer activity being widespread after either, what shows is projected for Wicklow rather than Dublin

red thumb down

BLIZZARD7

KingdomRushed wrote: »

The GFS 6z has a front making it as far east as Kildare/Offaly sort of area with widespread snow north and west of that. And in southern inland.

Dublin doesn't look in line for anything. Little evidence of streamer activity being widespread after either, what shows is projected for Wicklow rather than Dublin

Streamer activity is in itself hard to forecast though and There always seems to be an element of luck involved with regard to who ends up not in the Isle of Man shadow, that's assuming that every other variable is perfect. I'm expecting a short time period where streamers will form... Just hope I'm not in the dreaded shadow if they do.

Lumi

Light snow shower in Galway city - temp 1.1C, DP 0.6C

Larbre34

KingdomRushed wrote: »

Dublin doesn't look in line for anything. Little evidence of streamer activity being widespread after either, what shows is projected for Wicklow rather than Dublin

No harm, the two extended rush hours in recent weeks have shown the local authorities have no clue how to deal with it.

Discodog

Lumi wrote: »

Light snow shower in Galway city - temp 1.1C, DP 0.6C

The radar is showing Galway Bay full of precipitation but it's dry & quite sunny. I can understand how rain evaporates before hitting the ground but how does Snow or Sleet do the same. Surely the temperatures aren't high enough.

The same thing happened exactly two weeks ago. The radar showed precipitation most of the day but all we got were a few flakes.

RED L4 0TH

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

The Euro 04 is pretty snowy too though, isn't it (see below)? Forgive my ignorance, but who runs Euro 04, is it affiliated to the ECMWF?

UK Met Office. BBC TV's weather charts are based on it too.

Lumi

Discodog wrote: »

The radar is showing Galway Bay full of precipitation but it's dry & quite sunny. I can understand how rain evaporates before hitting the ground but how does Snow or Sleet do the same. Surely the temperatures aren't high enough.

The same thing happened exactly two weeks ago. The radar showed precipitation most of the day but all we got were a few flakes.

I'm in Dangan and it's overcast with very light snow falling

maquiladora

Discodog wrote: »

The radar is showing Galway Bay full of precipitation but it's dry & quite sunny. I can understand how rain evaporates before hitting the ground but how does Snow or Sleet do the same. Surely the temperatures aren't high enough.

The same thing happened exactly two weeks ago. The radar showed precipitation most of the day but all we got were a few flakes.

Snizzle/Drizzle will often show on radar without any noticeable precip reaching the ground. It just means it's very light stuff.

NMB

I'm a Schrödinger cat in a Dublin 6 box till Tuesday morning - I've never seen such a lack of consensus before. In the meantime every post that say's they have snow falling and lying on the ground I'm cheering.

Schadenfreudia

Larbre34 wrote: »

No harm, the two extended rush hours in recent weeks have shown the local authorities have no clue how to deal with it.

https://plus.google.com/u/0/110317003057911760130/posts/hWzM2v4ro1d?pid=6111194986501291490&oid=110317003057911760130

Not sure what they could do....got caught in an hour long queue from Rathcoole to the Red Cow when 3cm were dumped in half an hour; as you can see the roads were well salted but still a number of cars managed to embed themselves in the median verge....others were almost stationary with petrified drivers jamming the brakes and crawling.

Hard for the authorities to cater for driving like that.

maquiladora

Would expect to see a new Snow/Ice warning from Met Eireann for tonight/tomorrow morning to replace the one that has now expired.

q85dw7osi4lebg

Painfully cold wind chill in North County Dublin!

maquiladora

06Z HIRLAM has a narrow band of snow reaching about the halfway point across the country tomorrow morning before fizzing out around noun.

JanuarySnowstor

maquiladora wrote: »

06Z HIRLAM has a narrow band of snow reaching about the halfway point across the country tomorrow morning before fizzing out around noun.

Difficult to know how much snow we will get.
Certainly looks like weakening across the country

icesnowfrost

I'll say with confidence that nearly everywhere will see at least a dusting by tomorrow evening

Schadenfreudia

icesnowfrost wrote: »

I'll say with confidence that nearly everywhere will see at least a dusting by tomorrow evening

At this stage I'll take that!

Oneiric 3

redsteveireland wrote: »

That's what the charts say, I'm interested in your opinion on snowfall potential? Mainly because you are near me.

Hard one to answer given the difficult situation. My gut tells me we may get a light mixture of rain, sleet and snow overnight, with any snow more likely later as winds swing north (should help to lower Dps) To be honest, my gut also tells me that this will be a very forgettable episode in these here parts. I am well open to being pleasantly surprised though.

Temps, humidity & heights at various pressure levels for Turloughmore (about half way between me and you) based on the GFS 00z run for midnight tonight:



Seems okish for any snowflakes to survive down to the surface, but how many will fall is the biggy.