COLD SPELL Jan 28th Onwards: Wintry Showers/Frosty, Some Snow Accumulations

Kermit.de.frog

We need a 50 mile shift to the east on the 12z runs. It happens. Not ruling anything out just yet.

munsterlegend

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

For Cork fans we can expect several cm of lying snow by the morning.
The models agree on at least a few hours for us through the night

thats a very confident prediction JS! seems a lot of uncertainty about any amounts but west cork should do well.

Takeshi_Kovacs

maquiladora wrote: »

It did look very light on the radar. Heavier stuff stayed off shore.

Any low level accumulations anywhere in the southwest from that light snow this morning?

Only as other posters said, accumulations seemed to be more inland away from the coast, but melting pretty quickly.
The snowline on mt Brandon and surrounding mountains seems to be roughly at 350-400 m asl.

kmoneill

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

For Cork fans we can expect several cm of lying snow by the morning.
The models agree on at least a few hours for us through the night

And kerry ??

delw

Slashermcguirk wrote: »

People saying snow drought continues in the east, where?? Clearly the likes of carlingford, Dundalk, South Dublin and Wicklow have seen plenty of snow the past couple of weeks. Just because every garden doesn't get snow doesn't mean the east is getting a drought.

Donegal and North west have been pummelled with snow but maybe there are even places there that escaped snow. There will always be a handful of locations that don't see snow

Very true but unfortunately it seems to be the same locations this winter but the weather will do what it will do

aisling86

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

For Cork fans we can expect several cm of lying snow by the morning.
The models agree on at least a few hours for us through the night

It was so nice to wake up this morning and see snow - cannot wait until tomorrow - my 20mth old was so excited watching it looking for her mittens!! Hopefully Ill get a "snow day" tomorrow with them!!

sdanseo

delw wrote: »

the weather will do what it will do

We need to make that this forum's motto as a disclaimer against the odd belligerent post!

Clonmel1000

Lively bright sunny day here in South Tipperary. Very cold but like the rest of the winter save for 1 morning there isn't a flake of snow. I'm discounting the top of Sliabh na mBan in that though.

munsterlegend

aisling86 wrote: »

It was so nice to wake up this morning and see snow - cannot wait until tomorrow - my 20mth old was so excited watching it looking for her mittens!! Hopefully Ill get a "snow day" tomorrow with them!!

Macroom should do well later. very hard to know how much though until closer the time. definitely a dusting!

squarecircles

Where will it not snow,all coastal extremities? I'm a bit fatigued following this.

Gonzo

Slashermcguirk wrote: »

People saying snow drought continues in the east, where?? Clearly the likes of carlingford, Dundalk, South Dublin and Wicklow have seen plenty of snow the past couple of weeks. Just because every garden doesn't get snow doesn't mean the east is getting a drought.

Donegal and North west have been pummelled with snow but maybe there are even places there that escaped snow. There will always be a handful of locations that don't see snow

most people who live in the east have seen have seen less than 2cm of snow for winter so far. A few areas got lucky with more than a dusting such as Dublin 18 (i think) in south dublin and Carlow. But even there the snow did not last on the ground more than a few hours before it melted. Aside from high-ground locations only Cavan and Monaghan and parts of Louth saw proper snow where you can throw snowballs and make snowmen. The snow in Dublin a few days ago was a surprise but even that only lasted for 2 hours or so and it was gone.

q85dw7osi4lebg

Gonzo wrote: »

most people who live in the east have seen have seen less than 2cm of snow for winter so far. A few areas got lucky with more than a dusting such as Dublin 18 (i think) in south dublin and Carlow. But even there the snow did not last on the ground more than a few hours before it melted. Aside from high-ground locations only Cavan and Monaghan and parts of Louth saw proper snow where you can throw snowballs and make snowmen. The snow in Dublin a few days ago was a surprise but even that only lasted for 2 hours or so and it was gone.

Did you get any in Dunshaughlin? Made snowballs in Dunboyne last week!

Villain

12z NMM4 sure does seem to have killed off any hope for Eastern Areas!

Rebelbrowser

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

For Cork fans we can expect several cm of lying snow by the morning.
The models agree on at least a few hours for us through the night

Tempt fate why don't you!

Seriously JS, at the risk of coming on all Liam Neeson, if you jinx my snow I will track you down.....

All that said, this is the most certain forecast for snow for my area for a long time but we all know how apparently certain forecasts often go pear shaped....

In terms of Dublin, even if this band of precipitation misses (and it could yet stall over you for all we know) there is still a possibility of streamers. IIRC anytime ye have done well from streamers they haven't really been forecast. I expressly remember when it snowed all along the western seaboard on 17 Dec 2010 that the then consensus for the following week was dry but bitterly cold (to much hand wringing from the Dubs). Alas it didn't turn out that way as ye well know. Of course it ain't nearly as cold this time around so no guarantees either.....

ffarrell7

I agree with that as well. The east is generally drier that the south and west but colder temperature wise. There has been precious little snow to speak of in the east. I have only seen lying snow for a few hours twice so far this winter in west Dublin most notably last thursday when there was a full on blizzard for an hour and a half.

Cavan and Monaghan always do well and they are quite high in altitude anyway.

It has been extremely dry in Dublin...lots of winter sunshine...The north west of Irlenad has done the best together with parts of Scotland... Southern England hasn't seen a flake and the temperatures are a lot higher than here.... there has been no east of north east wind and that seems to be the trend this winter....2008/9/10 and 2012 was good for the East but nothing since really.

Redsunset

Latest fax for tomorrow morning from UKMO

Schadenfreudia

Slashermcguirk wrote: »

South Dublin and Wicklow have seen plenty of snow the past couple of weeks.

Well...plenty might be a bit of a stretch! Here we've had four days where snow fell and stayed on the ground for a while. On each occasion it fell during the afternoon, heaviest fall was 3cm and only one of those managed to remain intact till 9am the following day!

There Rock and the other hills have had maybe had 15 days with snow lying; currently for seventh day in a row.

Need to move higher up but those damn planners won't let me build on top of Three Rock

justy182

Could you tell us what it shows?
UK Fax
Does it show the front moving further east?

Musicman2000

justy182 wrote: »

Could you tell us what it shows?
UK Fax
Does it show the front moving further east?

Looks a god bit further east, Would tie in what they showed on the BBC weather at lunch time

WheatenBriar

Looking out over the Irish sea from Arklow and there's a long line of very impressive looking cb's,no more than about 20 miles
It would not take much of a NE to pull them in
Currently 4.9c in Arklow and mostly cloudy after a daily high of 7.1c

Speak Now

ffarrell7 wrote: »

I agree with that as well. The east is generally drier that the south and west but colder temperature wise. There has been precious little snow to speak of in the east. I have only seen lying snow for a few hours twice so far this winter in west Dublin most notably last thursday when there was a full on blizzard for an hour and a half.

Cavan and Monaghan always do well and they are quite high in altitude anyway.

It has been extremely dry in Dublin...lots of winter sunshine...The north west of Irlenad has done the best together with parts of Scotland... Southern England hasn't seen a flake and the temperatures are a lot higher than here.... there has been no east of north east wind and that seems to be the trend this winter....2008/9/10 and 2012 was good for the East but nothing since really.

There was a nice blast from the east in March 2013. Maybe it was more favourable for south east rather than east. -12 uppers if I recall correctly.

DominoDub

Some nice "Streamer" action going on now out it the Irish Sea !!

But in the wrong direction flowing North - South from off Isle of Man to Anglesea North Wales.

Oneiric 3

Met Eireann analysis/harmonie chart for the last 3 hours showing that weak trough now drawing closer to Ireland.



As others have said, whatever happens, will happen. We'll know by tomorrow how it panned out. This time next week it'll make no difference. This time next month we may be focusing on something else. This time next year we won't even remember or care how it turned out.

Map taken from: http://www.met.ie/latest/marine-analysis.asp

ffarrell7

Jerry Seinfeld wrote: »

There was a nice blast from the east in March 2013. Maybe it was more favourable for south east rather than east. -12 uppers if I recall correctly.

Oh yeah, late March, early April 2013....two or three days of lying snow in Dublin during that period too....:):):)

Graces7

Took my coffee outside and sat on a pile of tree trunks skywatching... so utterly varied and almost tearbreakingly glorious up there and almost on my level. Cloud of all shades from near black to white, patches of blue sky.. ( pretending not to notice that feral cat has crept on to my lap!!! And is purring loudly! The north and west ring of mountains heavily draped and clouds banking to the east also. Nothing here thankfully since the soft rain early on and my washing is slowly drying. Starting to get colder now but compared with the north wind effect these last days it is balmy...South Kerry mountain 400 ft asl

Elmer Blooker

Weekend : Mainly dry, but rain and drizzle will develop along north and northwest coasts later Saturday, followed by clearer, cold conditions Saturday night, with frost. Sunday will be cold, but dry, with moderate northwest winds.

ME see a continuation of the cold spell. I presumed a weak warm front would topple over the high bringing in mild and cloudy weather for next weekend.
Sat night frost, Sunday cold.

JanuarySnowstor

People seem to take an awful lot of notice what the met people say.
Remember they view the same charts as us.
We are ply as qualified as they are at this stage

typhoony

i think it's going to be one of those times when it's rain\sleet to start with then as the nightime evaporative cooling effect kicks in the temps will drop close enough for it to snow and stick. not much wind either while it's snowing so fun to be out in

Oneiric 3

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

We are ply as qualified as they are at this stage

We're not really..

Remember they have take a balanced approach and consider how their forecasts will impact the public. We have the luxury of looking at vast array of charts and coming up with our own individual assessments, which is why many of them can clash. All part of the fun of course, but I do sometimes wonder are we any better off with the almost daily increase in fancy new charts that show more and more parameters that don't, in my humble view, hold much value in the real world.

Gonzo

Aniyah Flabby Windburn wrote: »

Did you get any in Dunshaughlin? Made snowballs in Dunboyne last week!

The snow last Thursday just about clipped the village of Dunshaughlin where almost an inch was on the ground for about 3 hours, I live 2 miles east and had about 20 minutes of light to medium snow and only ended up with a bare dusting which melted within an hour.

Prior to this we had a light dusting one morning about 2 or 3 weeks ago, that's been it so far, last year we had nothing at all. 2012 I think we had a few dustings in March which would be melted by noon. 2011 we had nothing so have to go back to 25th December 2010 to remember the last time we had more than an inch of snow on the ground which lasted a day! We've really been paying hard for that great winter 2009/2010 falls of snow!