COLD SPELL Jan 28th Onwards: Wintry Showers/Frosty, Some Snow Accumulations

Gonzo

im in Galway at the moment, and it's raining. Nothing due for tomorrow in the east. I think it's time to put this one to bed unfortunately. Defo Game over for now. Today turned out much milder than expected as well. Im just about to throw in the towel for the 4th winter in a row.

United road

icesnowfrost wrote: »

i hate to say it but it just doesnt look good for the east at all. totally dependent on a few streamers from the irish sea

Such a waste!
There is a conveyer belt of heavy streamers going south down the irish sea!
Imagine they were coming our way, we would be blasted out of it.
Im doing as Kermit said, not radar watching until around midnight

JCX BXC

Update from West Clare, Light rain/sleet here. Very light.

icesnowfrost

really need some ninja snow right now

aisling86

This keeps the dreams alive!!
http://www.weermodellenforum.nl/index.php/forum/ryan-s-winterblog-2014-2015/2373-winter-prognose-s-modellen-update-s-saga-s-2014-15

yorlum11

Gonzo wrote:

im in Galway at the moment, and it's raining. Nothing due for tomorrow in the east. I think it's time to put this one to bed unfortunately. Defo Game over for now. Today turned out much milder than expected as well. Im just about to throw in the towel for the 4th winter in a row.

It's early yet, hang in there. Temps will drop.

Gonzo

yorlum11 wrote: »

It's early yet, hang in there. Temps will drop.

Temps may drop but there is no precipitation for the next week and a slow return to mild. By then it will be mid February, March does not interest me by then it's mainly snow shower at night and thaw by 10am.

DOCARCH

United road wrote: »

Im doing as Kermit said, not radar watching until around midnight

I think the band of ppn off the NW coast of Scotland is the one to watch (for us in the east)...that's where I will be looking. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/observation/map/#?map=Rainfall&zoom=5&lon=-4.00&lat=55.45&fcTime=1422857700

Meanwhile suitable preparations underway here (in south Dublin). Nice clear skies and a hard frost has already developed. -1.5c atm.

vistafinder

United road wrote: »

Such a waste!
There is a conveyer belt of heavy streamers going south down the irish sea!
Imagine they were coming our way, we would be blasted out of it.
Im doing as Kermit said, not radar watching until around midnight

Come on lets organise a boat and head out to the Irish sea.

If we get enough takers we might be able to get something big and bring some snow back to land with us...

icesnowfrost

do u no wat is worse than no snow in this event is the fact that met eireann could be right and i just love it when they have to eat humble pie
still, something amazing might happen on the GFS 18z run

Musicman2000

The BBC/UK Met forecast just after the 6 0 clock news has the front a lot further east and stalling from waterford up as far as kildare then fizzling out over Waterford. A lot different to whats showing on some of the charts posted here. But would tie in the with the fax charted posted here earlier. So we will see who will be right come the morning Met E or the Uk Met

Hooter23

Raining in Galway:mad:...Alot more snow in fecking spain today than ireland :rolleyes:

http://m.economictimes.com/slideshows/day-in-pics/february-2-2015/snowfall-in-northern-spain/slideshow/46090931.cms

JCX BXC

Gonzo wrote: »

im in Galway at the moment, and it's raining. Nothing due for tomorrow in the east. I think it's time to put this one to bed unfortunately. Defo Game over for now. Today turned out much milder than expected as well. Im just about to throw in the towel for the 4th winter in a row.

Ah now, we still have at least a month and a half of solid possibilities.
Dont speak too soon either, we have another 15 hours (min) of snow chances.

Villain

Well as I suspected the models are moving to the middle ground with GFS moving westwards and the Harmonie moving a little further east the west Laois border.

Another interesting thing on Harmonie is a chance for South Dublin and Wicklow tomorrow night!

maquiladora

icesnowfrost wrote: »

do u no wat is worse than no snow in this event is the fact that met eireann could be right and i just love it when they have to eat humble pie
still, something amazing might happen on the GFS 18z run

I'd be very angry with the GFS if I were you! It's caused a lot of people to get their hopes up but unfortunately it's just not very good when it comes to short range, local precipitation forecasts because it's a global model. The short range, higher-res mesoscale models were created specifically designed because of these type of shortcomings with global models.

maquiladora

Villain wrote: »

Well as I suspected the models are moving to the middle ground with GFS moving westwards and the Harmonie moving a little further east the west Laois border.

Another interesting thing on Harmonie is a chance for South Dublin and Wicklow tomorrow night!

12Z HIRLAM moved further west, where are you seeing HARMONIE?

Villain

maquiladora wrote: »

12Z HIRLAM moved further west, where are you seeing HARMONIE?

A friend has access and updated me.

Supercell

Loads of Irish sea streamers on the radar which is great to see, thats where my hopes are,

NMB

maquiladora wrote: »

I'd be very angry with the GFS if I were you! It's caused a lot of people to get their hopes up but unfortunately it's just not very good when it comes to short range, local precipitation forecasts because it's a global model. The short range, higher-res mesoscale models were created specifically designed because of these type of shortcomings with global models.

Oh Maqqie please don't say I told you so (even though you could)

It's not over yet folks it's only 19:00, you never know what you will find tomorrow morning. I for one have enjoyed the ups and downs today - it's been a blast of a "Polar Coaster" - (such a great quote from someone on here).

maquiladora

Supercell wrote: »

Loads of Irish sea streamers on the radar which is great to see, thats where my hopes are,

It's like the opening lyrics to a ballad

DOCARCH

Supercell wrote: »

Loads of Irish sea streamers on the radar which is great to see, thats where my hopes are,

Just noticed that wind direction at M2 bouy has gone NNE....coastal fringes of Wicklow and Wexford might be brushed by these streamers later?

Schadenfreudia

DOCARCH wrote: »

I think the band of ppn off the NW coast of Scotland is the one to watch (for us in the east)...that's where I will be looking. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/observation/map/#?map=Rainfall&zoom=5&lon=-4.00&lat=55.45&fcTime=1422857700

Meanwhile suitable preparations underway here (in south Dublin). Nice clear skies and a hard frost has already developed. -1.5c atm.

It's -2.1C here, clear sky - ground remained frozen all day (max 3.8C) and the snow-line never budget from 800 feet (odd that thaw on Lug!).

But the real sign, sadly, that it won't snow is that the gritters have put on their snow ploughs!

Rougies

Supercell wrote: »

Loads of Irish sea streamers on the radar which is great to see, thats where my hopes are,

Indeed, and that one to the NW of IOM is starting to move in the right direction. Might get a suprise later

Rougies

DOCARCH wrote: »

Just noticed that wind direction at M2 bouy has gone NNE....coastal fringes of Wicklow and Wexford might be brushed by these streamers later?

Yeah looking like a shift in direction on radar too. Maybe!

Godammit I wish I hadn't noticed that. Should've taken Kermit's advice and checked back in at midnight.

JanuarySnowstor

maquiladora wrote: »

I'd be very angry with the GFS if I were you! It's caused a lot of people to get their hopes up but unfortunately it's just not very good when it comes to short range, local precipitation forecasts because it's a global model. The short range, higher-res mesoscale models were created specifically designed because of these type of shortcomings with global models.

I have great time for the gfs ppn charts and find them very accurate.
Already this evening ppn is kicking off out West.
Let's give it until the morning

JCX BXC

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

SNOWFALL WATCH UPDATE _ Mon 2 Feb 2015 _ 7 p.m.
________________________________________________

Guidance continues to be somewhat scattered but would currently say that chances for snowfall accumulations on Tuesday are best in higher portions of the northwest, and moderate in some parts of the inland east-central regions.

Would expect some 3-5 cm accumulations after midnight and through the morning hours in higher portions of Donegal, Derry, Tyrone, Fermanagh, Sligo, Leitrim, Roscommon, Mayo and Galway. Rain or sleet is more likely close to sea level but this could change to wet snow later in the event.

The prospects for Irish Sea streamers reaching land remain uncertain and some guidance is more conducive for this to happen than others. If it does happen, it would likely be during the afternoon and evening hours when a better gradient and wind direction are possible, during the morning the surface flow might be from the colder land out over the Irish Sea but eventually a slack northeast flow develops and then intensifies somewhat by afternoon.

Here again, there would be mixing issues near the coasts and the Dublin urban heat island might be enough of a factor to prevent some snow from accumulating, so that some distance inland and upslope on the Dublin and Wicklow hills might be the best places to expect snow to accumulate. Potential amounts would be anywhere from a couple of centimetres to perhaps 10 cm if everything came together.

This could all change one way or the other by morning as we are dealing with a rather odd pattern with weak low pressure dropping due south from the vicinity of Jan Mayen Island east of Greenland. If this tangles with the higher ground of western Scotland and loses identity, the results might be a general lack of precipitation in eastern counties of Ireland. If it held together as well as a few models are showing, it could become the focus of some locally heavy snowfall amounts in some central counties too.

So in other words, uncertainty rules and the situation becomes basically a nowcast.

Therefore I am going on holiday. Just kidding but I will be next weekend.

Very conservative forecast also by MT

maquiladora

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

I have great time for the gfs ppn charts and find them very accurate.
Already this evening ppn is kicking off out West.
Let's give it until the morning

Yesterday's 12Z GFS showed moderate snow all over the east Tuesday morning. Today's 12Z GFS shows no precipitation at all over the east Tuesday morning.

icesnowfrost

in terms of snowfall this winter has been great compared to the last 3. in terms of snowfall in the east and northeast its been close but no cigar. but there is still a few weeks of winter left

DOCARCH

DOCARCH wrote: »

Just noticed that wind direction at M2 bouy has gone NNE....coastal fringes of Wicklow and Wexford might be brushed by these streamers later?

Ahhh...winds gone back, basically, north at 1900 (at the M2 bouy)...so may have to forgot about those streamer...for today.

maquiladora

Still hoping that someone somewhere gets a nice covering of snow by tomorrow morning. I want to see pictures in the morning!

Western half of the country is best favoured but it'll be a nowcast to see exactly where the sweetspots will be. If showers end up "training" over the same area for several hours you can get nice little localised accumulations that no model will pick up.