dollar

dasdog

I can give you a lesson in what not to do if you like? Made all the wrong moves, thinking short term, chasing losses, positions way to big. Very expensive few hours since the print. Half a weeks gains (good gains) wiped out. Focus moved from macro economics to politics.

Reconciled to shorting GBP/USD with the election jitter effect. $1.50 does seem pretty high. EUR is all over the place. I'm long and in the red but not sure for how much longer.

Hope you weren't as badly burnt today as I was.

Edit: Closed off GBP at a profit. EUR making a mini comeback.
Edit #2: Closed off EUR with small profit and opened similar GBP short. Sticking to my guns this time.

Tugboats

dasdog wrote: »

I can give you a lesson in what not to do if you like? Made all the wrong moves, thinking short term, chasing losses, positions way to big. Very expensive few hours since the print. Half a weeks gains (good gains) wiped out. Focus moved from macro economics to politics.

Reconciled to shorting GBP/USD with the election jitter effect. $1.50 does seem pretty high. EUR is all over the place. I'm long and in the red but not sure for how much longer.

Hope you weren't as badly burnt today as I was.

Edit: Closed off GBP at a profit. EUR making a mini comeback.
Edit #2: Closed off EUR with small profit and opened similar GBP short. Sticking to my guns this time.

got a nice euro long entry during NY session(took out London stops) @10740 hoping for it to target @10840s again. Doesn't look likely now.

For ever odd

with so much data out this week from around the globe, my head literally hurts from trying to piece it all together. The way the market's have stalled, I'd say everyone is tired. Time to relax now. Enjoy the weekend lads.

dasdog

Mon/Tues and Wed were fantastic for me (CAD was just a lovely idea I saw elsewhere). Last two days have been crazy. Today really was nuts and took a bit of confidence away. Got planned maintenance myself so no weekend as such but enjoy.

I shouldn't mention EUR running @ 1081 now :pac:

For ever odd

dasdog wrote: »

Press conference link although the delay probably renders it useless. He's likely going to be dovish with the only question being put of interest when QE is going to finish up (earlier than expected?) due to a technicality breach in bond buying. I had a look at the rules and it is way over my head!

Interesting day yesterday. The climb up from the 105's to 107 with stop triggers being hit took off nicely but was resisted twice just over 107. If that breaks today it could be a big jump. I doubt anyone knows what's lies beyond the sub 105 zone, pinball stuff.

CAD could be a play today also if they don't change rates but I'd follow that decision, way to risky to get involved beforehand.

10333 and 10198/71 are the support levels I will be watching if it goes sub 10522. All resistance levels from 2002.
11125 next resistance level outside of current trading range again from 2002. See how it plays out.

dasdog

Scratching my head here.

Greenback is sticking to 120 Yen on no data and 150 Sterling after today's UK retail data and falling against EUR? Something is going on behind the scenes. Maybe the picture will change after this afternoons US results.

For ever odd

dasdog wrote: »

Scratching my head here.

Greenback is sticking to 120 Yen on no data and 150 Sterling after today's UK retail data and falling against EUR? Something is going on behind the scenes. Maybe the picture will change after this afternoons US results.

When I'm like that, I switch off and walk away, keeps me out of taking silly trades that I might talk myself into.(like the one last Thursday)
Wait for the market's to come to you!

dasdog

For ever odd wrote: »

When I'm like that, I switch off and walk away, keeps me out of taking silly trades that I might talk myself into.(like the one last Thursday)
Wait for the market's to come you!

I hear you and agree completely but made a mistake this morning chasing.

Jobless figures just missed expectation and later a low April Manufacturing PMI did little to change the sticky situation followed by bad home sales data for March. I'm beginning to think there is a huge option out there dictating prices. Data prints are going the right way but USD/JPY▼ & GBP/USD▲ aren't reflecting this. Minimizing screen, I'll check back later as interference will probably result in loss.

A few days away from the screens is probably a good idea.

smash

Core Durable Goods would want to be very good today for it to gain strength now.

dasdog

Lots of noise still after the print. USD/JPY seems to have the clearest direction so far which is where I have staggered positions. If 119.0 is breached it gets really interesting for me. Jumped on EUR also (not in a major way) to hedge a AUD/GBP short position.

For ever odd

The EUR/USD has been capped by the 50 ema on the daily chart since last July, it's currently kissing it now.

dasdog

I closed at 1086 just in black. It's too risky, anything can happen with Tsipras over the weekend and bang in milliseconds on Sunday's open. JPY is shaping up nicely though. No major news expected next week (policy should remain as is) and FOMC on Wed should put this June nonsense to bed for good.

A better week than last but I waited too long on some closes (trying to hit the ball out of the park). GBP is shaping up to be a superb short candidate.

smash

Dead in the water. FOMC could push this to 1.1500 now as I can't see any June rate hikes being announced.

dasdog

Round 3 starting @ 1115.

I'm taking profit if it hits 1120 and will wait for FOMC.

Hope our finance minister hasn't based his Spring calculations on a strong dollar.

For ever odd

What is the opinion on the dollar, floating around 1.10 against the Euro and 97+ on the dollar index.
Are the fed going to raise interest rates this year or not?
What effect would a yes/ no have on the dollar?

dasdog

For ever odd wrote: »

What is the opinion on the dollar, floating around 1.10 against the Euro and 97+ on the dollar index.
Are the fed going to raise interest rates this year or not?
What effect would a yes/ no have on the dollar?

Very probably.

Depends on the size of the rise but I don't think there will be a spectacular run away dollar. The expectations six/nine months ago were much greater and the strength may have been priced in.

Interestingly, I just took a look at EUR/USD rate from my last post, April 29th. Almost exactly the same as right now which is astounding when you think we are potentially a month away from an increase and Greece went in to near meltdown.

conditioned games

They've been talking about raising interest rates for the last 3 years. It's all mind games with that US Fed. Wouldn't be surprised to see the dollar lose 20% of its value in the fall given how weak their economy is getting but then again the rest of the world is doing badly as well. If conditions continue to worsen they will have to keep interest rates as is and increase currency printing to fight of deflation.

dasdog

conditioned games wrote: »

They've been talking about raising interest rates for the last 3 years. It's all mind games with that US Fed. Wouldn't be surprised to see the dollar lose 20% of its value in the fall given how weak their economy is getting but then again the rest of the world is doing badly as well. If conditions continue to worsen they will have to keep interest rates as is and increase currency printing to fight of deflation.

I don't see any reason for them to do it, there is nothing to nip in the bud, but I think they will do it for optics or political reasons. That's my amateur economical view.

el diablo

They won't increase interest rates any time soon. It would be far too risky.

For ever odd

el diablo wrote: »

They won't increase interest rates any time soon. It would be far too risky.

They are between a rock and a hard place on this one.
My opinion is that it would far more riskier if they don't raise interest rates. Even if it's only a token effort, they get to save face for a while.

Amirani

For ever odd wrote: »

They are between a rock and a hard place on this one.
My opinion is that it would far more riskier if they don't raise interest rates. Even if it's only a token effort, they get to save face for a while.

Agreed - there's a rate rise coming this year. Probably be small, but it's coming.

For ever odd

Diego Simeone wrote: »

Agreed - there's a rate rise coming this year. Probably be small, but it's coming.

Ok working of this assumption and the fed keeps hikes on a slow burner,what happens to the dollar? Will it strengthen or weaken?

TiGeR KiNgS

For ever odd wrote: »

Ok working of this assumption and the fed keeps hikes on a slow burner,what happens to the dollar? Will it strengthen or weaken?

My understanding is a rate hike will strengthen the dollar by absorbing dollars from circulation. i.e directs dollars back into the FED.


Edit
The real question is has a rate hike been factored into the current dollar value?

DarkDusk

A rate hike is definitely factored into the dollar value currently. This huge dollar rally recently has been driven by the belief of the Fed raising rates this year. I believe they won't raise rates and will eventually start QE4. Why are the Fed so afraid to raise rates when all they are going to do is raise them to .25%? Janet Yellen said that if they do raise rates they won't raise them again for a while and that the process will be very gradual. If the US economy is in "good shape" then why are rates at zero and why can't they raise them ever so slightly yet? My guess is that they are afraid of pricking another bubble that many people fail to see.

Most probable scenario for me is that they raise rates and then lower them back to zero followed by QE4. Or else straight into QE4 if next few quarters don't show much growth.

Slattsy

Some advice please folks and apologies for hijacking thread but my query is somewhat relevant and I assume some of the regular posters can offer some advice.

I've a dollar account that I have set aside for a rainy day. However I'm not sure if the current rates will be as good 10 or 15 years down the line. Would you consider cashing in shortly?

Thanks.

Mach 3

I must say I found this old thread a fascinating read.

Appreciate it was over two and a half years since it was started, and posters were in talking in real time - but some of the insights are starting to ring true.

Is there any one reason for the dollar falling or is it a multitude of events?