If Greece can do it, Ireland certainly can..

Jim2007

NIMAN wrote: »

Allowed to retire 10yrs before every other nation, massive tax avoidance and evasion, huge pensions for everyone, large numbers of holidays for workers and actually paying people bonuses for coming to work on time!

And when they are at work, it is like a social club - At one point I had three Greeks on my team - first to the coffee breaks, last back, spending ages hanging around each others desks chatting etc.... That did not go down well among their highly industrious Swiss colleagues, so when the recession hit they were gone.

Thought it might be a good idea to bump this thread, given that there is no Greece thread in the serious side of the forum.

Just to recap where Greece is right now, it's "final" €7.2bn tranche is contingent on the implementation of reforms that are being negotiated in Brussels. If the money is not released, Greece will default on its obligations, and will be unable to issue repayments to the IMF which are already due.

The stumbling blocks are: pensions and higher taxes (resisted by Greece) and the extension of debt maturities (resisted by the Commission, supported by the IMF). Other issues have already been agreed.

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/E/EU_GREECE_BAILOUT?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2015-06-11-08-51-15

Interesting article by Walter Munchau in the FT

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/5e38f1be-1116-11e5-9bf8-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3dKBMWUmX

He suggests that while both of Greece's alternatives (acceptance of 4-year adjustment vs default) have downsides, the benefits of default are stronger. He categorises these as (1) an end to 'lunatic' fiscal adjustments, (2) unquestionable ability to service all future private-sector loans, as well as finally removing risk of currency redenomination, (3) improvement of Greece's external position.

On the other hand, he calculates that an acceptance of the 4-year adjustment under proposal would reduce Greek GDP by over 12%, leaving the debt to GDP ratio at an unsustainable 200%.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/5e38f1be-1116-11e5-9bf8-00144feabdc0.html#ixzz3dKNJdIOn

He therefore recommends a default & Grexit, saying:

Comparing those two scenarios reminds me of Sir Winston Churchill’s remark that drunkenness, unlike ugliness, is a quality that wears off. The first scenario is simply ugly, and will always remain so. The second gives you a hangover followed by certain sobriety.

So if this were the choice, the Greeks would have a rational reason to prefer Grexit

RobertKK

Greek leader running off to Russia to have a cry on Putin's shoulder.

Well this is what happens when people vote in idiots, Paul Murphy was over in Athens to celebrate the Syriza victory, as were Sinn Fein cheerleading the victory.
When you people unwilling to negotiate, you are just asking for more trouble, it is sad the Greek people have been led further astray with the idiot Tsipras.

Ireland is a success as we weren't stupid enough to elect a far left government who have showed again and again their lack of experience. Ireland decided to keep it's friends, the Greek leadership under Tsipras have decided to burn bridges. The people who will pay are the Greek people, the rest of Europe is getting ready to cast aside Greece, if they don't want to compromise and negotiate.

It is amazing that some still think Tsipras is doing a good job as he drives Greece deeper into the gutter.

I am also fed up of people talking about the working class,m we live in a free society where everyone has the opportunity to better themselves, some rather complain and expect things to happen for them, while doing nothing to make it happen.
Taxes on wealth are high enough, some of the taxes here are higher than in some other countries, but the stupid far left think they are too low, sure in their utopia, everyone is equal and they would be - poor.

catallus

"Ireland is a success"?

HAHAHAHAH

That's some messed up perspective, dude.

Harry Palmr

catallus wrote: »

"Ireland is a success"?

HAHAHAHAH

That's some messed up perspective, dude.

Whatever about "success" it is all relative - Where would you sooner be right now?

RobertKK

catallus wrote: »

"Ireland is a success"?

HAHAHAHAH

That's some messed up perspective, dude.

Ireland is one of the wealthiest countries in the world, we have a very high standard of living, we have a diverse economy and have freedom.

Finnish finance minister talking on CNBC right now. He says when you make a deal you should keep it. He sais Ireland and Portugal kept to the deal, and one could argue they are among the strongest now in Europe.

He said Greece if they don't come to a deal, could default and leave the Euro, that the Eurozone would be able to handle it alright, but the Greek people wouldn't have it so good.
We made a success of the bad situation we were in, Greece continues in it's crisis.

catallus

Harry Palmr wrote: »

Whatever about "success" it is all relative

I honestly don't know what this is supposed to mean. Relative to what, precisely?

Harry Palmr wrote: »

Where would you sooner be right now?

Again, what bearing does this have on the subject. Just because the Greeks are being punished for not allowing themselves to be robbed doesn't mean Ireland is in a better position.

I'd like to be in the Seychelles, btw, fwiw.

Harry Palmr

The Greeks ****ed themselves up Royally. The current blow-hards in power should be jailed rather than hailed.

Saipanne

Harry Palmr wrote: »

Whatever about "success" it is all relative - Where would you sooner be right now?

I'd much rather be here.

LadyFenghuang

Of the countless writs and regulations that govern Europe’s currency club, one golden rule trumps them all, membership is conditional. Greece has been told that time and time again. The club faces two choices. It could relax its principles at the risk of losing its select status.

If Greece loses the Euro and exists the club there is little to prevent Greece from defaulting. That has serious affects for countries like Spain and us.

And yes I would rather be here.

The measures that had to be taken there were stricter and they cut spending by about 15% of their economy. The economy is suffering and politics is a mess there.

RecordStraight

catallus wrote: »

I honestly don't know what this is supposed to mean. Relative to what, precisely?

Relative to the rest of the world.

RobertKK

catallus wrote: »

I honestly don't know what this is supposed to mean. Relative to what, precisely?




Again, what bearing does this have on the subject. Just because the Greeks are being punished for not allowing themselves to be robbed doesn't mean Ireland is in a better position.

I'd like to be in the Seychelles, btw, fwiw.

This is a 'if Greece can do it, Ireland certainly can'. Ireland will be robbed by Greece if it doesn't pay it's debts, we loaned them hundreds of millions of Euro.
Greece owes most of it's money to fellow European taxpayers, Greece can choose to rob the rest of Europe, and if they do, the rest of Europe won't forget.
It is better to work to keep your friends, rather than think you can keep them while slapping them in the face.

tolosenc

RobertKK wrote: »

Ireland is a success as we weren't stupid enough to elect a far left government who have showed again and again their lack of experience.

Less that we are too stupid, more that we like sitting on the fence too much. While we elected (and I believe will return next year) a competent government, we are happy to elect a government that will kick the can down the road on the systemic issues in this country.

We won't elect anyone stupid enough to send us down the Greek road of stealing from lenders and justifying it in the name of socialism, nor will we elect anyone prepared to upset the apple cart and prevent the same mess for recurring here.

LadyFenghuang

LadyFenghuang wrote: »

Of the countless writs and regulations that govern Europe’s currency club, one golden rule trumps them all, membership is conditional.

Hardly. Not only is there no mechanism for leaving the eurozone in the treaties, there's no formal process of expulsion either.

dlouth15

A Tyrant Named Miltiades! wrote: »

Interesting article by Walter Munchau in the FT

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/5e38f1be-1116-11e5-9bf8-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3dKBMWUmX

He suggests that while both of Greece's alternatives (acceptance of 4-year adjustment vs default) have downsides, the benefits of default are stronger. He categorises these as (1) an end to 'lunatic' fiscal adjustments, (2) unquestionable ability to service all future private-sector loans, as well as finally removing risk of currency redenomination, (3) improvement of Greece's external position.

On the other hand, he calculates that an acceptance of the 4-year adjustment under proposal would reduce Greek GDP by over 12%, leaving the debt to GDP ratio at an unsustainable 200%.

Munchau may well be correct that economically it makes sense long term for Greece to leave the Euro but politically they have no mandate to do so and politically suicidal for a Greek leader to make that decision.

Paul Krugman explains it well in this Hardtalk interview from a couple of years ago "it has to happen with no one's fingerprints on it."

Very scary and sad...



Banks surely won't be opening on Monday. Where does Greece stand for now?

Peanut

dlouth15 wrote: »

Munchau may well be correct that economically it makes sense long term for Greece to leave the Euro but politically they have no mandate to do so and politically suicidal for a Greek leader to make that decision.

Greek bailout referendum announced for 5th July.

I think the Greek gov. are doing the right thing. They have to be seen to be going to the very edge of default. There's a lot of noise about how Europe is prepared to let go of Greece in such a situation, but it feels like bluffing - who really has the upper hand here?

Keeping Greece in a form of economic limbo doesn't do anyone any favours, if the current proposals are unlikely to produce a sustainable improvement.

dlouth15

dlouth15 wrote: »

Munchau may well be correct that economically it makes sense long term for Greece to leave the Euro but politically they have no mandate to do so and politically suicidal for a Greek leader to make that decision.

Paul Krugman explains it well in this Hardtalk interview from a couple of years ago "it has to happen with no one's fingerprints on it."

What did Krugman have to say about Ireland again? Suppose it depends which way the wind was blowing on a particular day.

Deleted User wrote: »

Very scary and sad...



Banks surely won't be opening on Monday. Where does Greece stand for now?

Is that a long queue for an ATM on a Friday night?

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

Is that a long queue for an ATM on a Friday night?

Point score?

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

@RobNisbetSky wrote:

We have seen an ATM run out of money and the queue move down to next bank. Radio stns broadcasting which ATMs still have cash.

loyatemu

Bailout expires Tuesday, the greeks want an extension until the referendum but the EU and Merkel's party are saying that's virtually impossible (as it would have to be approved by various national parliaments including Germany).

So even if the Greeks vote Yes, they'll default on the IMF on Tuesday, the ECB are likely to withdraw emergency funding once the bailout expires and they'll be back to square one in the negotiations. This is a serious mess.

dlouth15

Deleted User wrote: »

What did Krugman have to say about Ireland again? Suppose it depends which way the wind was blowing on a particular day.

Is that a long queue for an ATM on a Friday night?

And if they do default and leave the Euro it is going to get a lot worse, probably more than most imagine. But it may be the only way they can eventually turn around their economy.

Celly Smunt

At least greek holidays will be cheaper...

But in all seriousness, we are heading towards the most important week to month in terms of the euro with the whole world watching greece. There are many scenarios which might happen and after being in New York with buddies last week they seem to think that if greece exit the dollar will grow stronger than the euro for a considerable time leading to increased investment in europe.

Every cloud and all that, perhaps a greek exit is the making of the euro and could inadvertently pull Ireland well and truly around the corner.

dlouth15

Deleted User wrote: »

What did Krugman have to say about Ireland again? Suppose it depends which way the wind was blowing on a particular day.

Well he's an economist so I think you have to make allowances . But what if he, like Munchau, is right about Greece? What if after a year or so of difficulties and having devalued, the Greek economy starts to turn around? Of course we will have to wait and see, but in the arguably unlikely event that that did happen, what would that say about the Euro project?

zl1whqvjs75cdy

Hope the lefty lunatics that follow Paul Murphy and other equally misinformed gombeens are paying very very close attention. Although their go to trick seems to be blame everyone else and then ignore any awkward questions.

Riverireland

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Very scary and sad...



Banks surely won't be opening on Monday. Where does Greece stand for now?

It looks like a regular queue at an ATM to me. No one looking particularly stressed.

In a situation like this of course people are going to withdraw their money.

I personally clear my bank account every month once my direct debits are gone through. I use mainly cash to pay for everything I don't buy on line. Have been doing this since 2009.

loyatemu

loyatemu wrote: »

So even if the Greeks vote Yes, they'll default on the IMF on Tuesday, the ECB are likely to withdraw emergency funding once the bailout expires and they'll be back to square one in the negotiations. This is a serious mess.

Where has this meme come from?

It has been clarified so many times in reputable financial and (respectable) Greek media that it's not true, yet ordinary newspapers ignore it altogether.

http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite2_1_01/05/2015_549628

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-15/greek-bailout-loans-can-t-trigger-default-with-standard-poor-s

Not only is a missed IMF payment not a default in the eyes of CRAs, it is not a default in the eyes of the IMF.

Does someone needs to put this on a banner outside newspaper editors' windows before Tara Street or Fleet Street actually acknowledge it?

I suppose it's too boring for print. It makes the crisis seem less catastrophic.

RecordStraight

Riverireland wrote: »

It looks like a regular queue at an ATM to me. No one looking particularly stressed.

Saipanne

Riverireland wrote: »

It looks like a regular queue at an ATM to me. No one looking particularly stressed.

In a situation like this of course people are going to withdraw their money.

I personally clear my bank account every month once my direct debits are gone through. I use mainly cash to pay for everything I don't buy on line. Have been doing this since 2009.

Why?

Jim2007

Riverireland wrote: »

I personally clear my bank account every month once my direct debits are gone through. I use mainly cash to pay for everything I don't buy on line. Have been doing this since 2009.

OK, I'll bite, what event in 2009 lead you to adapt this approach???

Jim2007

A Tyrant Named Miltiades! wrote: »

I suppose it's too boring for print. It makes the crisis seem less catastrophic.

Greek bonds are junk already, it really does not matter what the agencies do...

dlouth15

dlouth15 wrote: »

Well he's an economist so I think you have to make allowances . But what if he, like Munchau, is right about Greece? What if after a year or so of difficulties and having devalued, the Greek economy starts to turn around? Of course we will have to wait and see, but in the arguably unlikely event that that did happen, what would that say about the Euro project?

We'll see if it happens.

However the point that some like to ignore is that last year things had started to turn around for Greece. Unemployment fell a little, the government ran a surplus and GDP even increased. Elect these jokers, tax take falls, unemployment up again, GDP falling again, and another crisis of their own making.

Wanderer78

best of luck to the greeks. the only country in europe that has bigger balls than mr. merkels!

might interest some here:

http://itsourmoney.podbean.com/

take everything

Wanderer78 wrote: »

best of luck to the greeks. the only country in europe that has bigger balls than mr. merkels!

might interest some here:

http://itsourmoney.podbean.com/

I can't see the EU letting them go.
I think people might have underestimated Tsipras and co.

Wanderer78

take everything wrote: »

I can't see the EU letting them go.
I think people might have underestimated Tsipras and co.

the game is still in play. lets see what happens. both parties playing it very well. im just glad at least one country is standing up and fighting back, but in saying that, it could all go horribly wrong for them. who knows. its a risky game for both sides. very interesting to watch though

dlouth15

Deleted User wrote: »

We'll see if it happens.

However the point that some like to ignore is that last year things had started to turn around for Greece. Unemployment fell a little, the government ran a surplus and GDP even increased. Elect these jokers, tax take falls, unemployment up again, GDP falling again, and another crisis of their own making.

The problem is that under whatever regime might be agreed upon, there's probably no way Greece could sustain it no matter who is elected. The sorts of surpluses originally proposed are pretty much unheard of in industrialized countries and unlikely Greece could sustain them without further deterioration of the economy.

I think the assumption we need to question is that those negotiating with Greece genuinely wanted what would put Greece on a sustainable track to paying back its debts. Some of the measures like increasing taxes on Greek islands would have damaged tourism and made such payments harder. I think these were suggested not because it maximized the chance of a return for the lenders but rather that politicians could be seen to be being tough with Greece which would have been popular with the electorates.

All that could have achieved in these negotiations would have been a postponement of default to another year when the whole thing would have started again.

Wanderer78

interesting tweets from mcwilliams:

https://twitter.com/davidmcw

RecordStraight

Wanderer78 wrote: »

interesting tweets from mcwilliams:

https://twitter.com/davidmcw

I used to have time for McWilliams, but I've come to the sorry conclusion that he's just an entertainer. He's an to Economics what Top Gear is to cars.

Wanderer78

RecordStraight wrote: »

I used to have time for McWilliams, but I've come to the sorry conclusion that he's just an entertainer. He's an to Economics what Top Gear is to cars.

ah no hes onto something. im convinced. finally made it to kilkenomics before christmas. we re in big trouble with all this. hes a very good communicator. top gear is good fun though. check out the podcasts i linked earlier. very interesting stuff

zl1whqvjs75cdy

Wanderer78 wrote: »

the game is still in play. lets see what happens. both parties playing it very well. im just glad at least one country is standing up and fighting back, but in saying that, it could all go horribly wrong for them. who knows. its a risky game for both sides. very interesting to watch though

In what world have Syriza played it well. There's a run on the banks with ordinary Greeks terrified of what's going to happen next week with their savings and pensions. Meanwhile the glorious leader calls pointless and quite possibly illegal referendums on a question that hasn't even been thought up. Meanwhile formal default is hurtling towards them after which they will be the paupers of Europe for the foreseeable future. How is any of that good.

Wanderer78

donkeyoaty0099 wrote: »

In what world have Syriza played it well. There's a run on the banks with ordinary Greeks terrified of what's going to happen next week with their savings and pensions. Meanwhile the glorious leader calls pointless and quite possibly illegal referendums on a question that hasn't even been thought up. Meanwhile formal default is hurtling towards them after which they will be the paupers of Europe for the foreseeable future. How is any of that good.

patience patience patience!

its all a game and it aint over yet. believe it or not the imf and co are equally to blame in all the panic in fact id put more blame on their side. check out some of the podcasts i posted earlier. puts a bit of a spin on things. the whole thing seems like, you're damned if you do and damned if you dont. kinna like with what happened with ireland but i think we played the game very badly. greece is showing a lot of strength in all this. its going to be very interesting to see the overall outcome of all this

Peanut

donkeyoaty0099 wrote: »

In what world have Syriza played it well. There's a run on the banks with ordinary Greeks terrified of what's going to happen next week with their savings and pensions. Meanwhile the glorious leader calls pointless and quite possibly illegal referendums on a question that hasn't even been thought up. Meanwhile formal default is hurtling towards them after which they will be the paupers of Europe for the foreseeable future. How is any of that good.

As a negotiating tactic, it's great. It helps convince people (and politicians) that they may actually be reckless enough to go through with a complete Euro exit, even if it's not their intention. The referendum additionally looks like a potentially successful bid to shift more of the pressure for a deal on to the creditors.

RecordStraight

Peanut wrote: »

As a negotiating tactic, it's great.

Unless, as it appears, they've bluffed themselves out of the game and onto the street without a shirt on their backs.

imitation

This is going to be bad for greece, people think there will be some kind of Icelandic recovery after they do it, but as far as I can see the cirumstances are very different, Iceland said no from the outset, where greece has hummed and hawed the last 5 years. People will see greece as an unreliable country to do business and to invest in as they just can commit to an agreement. There are no natural resources and one of the biggest industries in shipping, one I can imagine taking a big hit if they leave. I can honestly see hyper inflation being a huge issue when its such a new and unique case. I feel sorry for thr Greeks, but its clear years of systematic abuse and treatment of government funds as free money has made the country a basket case.

nice_guy80

donkeyoaty0099 wrote: »

In what world have Syriza played it well. There's a run on the banks with ordinary Greeks terrified of what's going to happen next week with their savings and pensions. Meanwhile the glorious leader calls pointless and quite possibly illegal referendums on a question that hasn't even been thought up. Meanwhile formal default is hurtling towards them after which they will be the paupers of Europe for the foreseeable future. How is any of that good.

where is the run on the banks?
people were queuing normally yesterday as far as I could see.
the media have a habit of taking photographs and reproducing the one that fits with their story

Phoebas

nice_guy80 wrote: »

where is the run on the banks?
people were queuing normally yesterday as far as I could see.
the media have a habit of taking photographs and reproducing the one that fits with their story

This isn't normal
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-27/greeks-line-up-at-banks-and-drain-atms-after-tsipras-calls-vote

tara73

nice_guy80 wrote: »

where is the run on the banks?
people were queuing normally yesterday as far as I could see.
the media have a habit of taking photographs and reproducing the one that fits with their story

?? just listen or watch to some news on CNN, BBC or wherever. There is a bank run, ordinary people like you and me are queuing to get their money out of atm's. greece is putting police men at atm's and banks in case of riots.

this behaviour of greece is very strange.
greece must have a back up plan, otherwise they wouldn't act like they act. And my guess is the greek back up plan lies direction east...

Wanderer78

i do feel for the greek people here, this must be a very difficult time for them but in the long run, this actually might be the best thing for them. who knows. only time will tell. im sure there will be a few years of very difficult times for them but it may all settle down after that. i dont think anybody really knows whats gonna happen. we re all just speculating. i think they played the game very well.

RecordStraight

Wanderer78 wrote: »

i think they played the game very well.

They've played it disastrously. Even though we started in a better place than they did, comparing our economic performance to theirs over the last 5 years should tell you all you need to know. And bear in mind that they benefited from a 100 billion euro debt write-off that we didn't get.

Wanderer78

RecordStraight wrote: »

They've played it disastrously. Even though we started in a better place than they did, comparing our economic performance to theirs over the last 5 years should tell you all you need to know. And bear in mind that they benefited from a 100 billion euro debt write-off that we didn't get.

i disagree. all is not well in ireland. dont believe all what your government is telling you and what you read in our media. its been very difficult to watch austerity take hold in ireland. its actually not sustainable. we ve successfully kicked many if not all our cans down the road. our debt problems will eventually surface. i do agree with you on the debt write down though, therefore id say, they played the game very well. as you said, we didnt get a debt right down!