If Greece can do it, Ireland certainly can..

catbear

Grandpa Hassan wrote: »

I'm not talking about the euro. That's in the past anyway. I'm talking about the supposed strategy / model for Greece to get out of this current mess. Which will clearly not work. The troika's models are failing and yet keep being pushed

The greeks asked for a bailout, they got one. Creditors are entitled to attached conditions.
If I applied for a loan I have to meet those conditions. If I argue with them then on and blame for lending to me they'll have no option but to call in the debt collector. Bankruptcy is the final result.
The EU has been far more flexible than a bank, each Irish person will lose nearly €600 each on a Grexit but poor Malta stands to €1300 per head!

Grandpa Hassan

catbear wrote: »

The greeks asked for a bailout, they got one. Creditors are entitled to attached conditions.
If I applied for a loan I have to meet those conditions. If I argue with them then on and blame for lending to me they'll have no option but to call in the debt collector. Bankruptcy is the final result.
The EU has been far more flexible than a bank, each Irish person will lose nearly €600 each on a Grexit but poor Malta stands to €1300 per head!

Yes, but creditors shoot themselves in the foot if the conditions can't be met, and also if the conditions are based on an economic recovery model which is flawed. Which it is, IMO, as Greece cannot possibly meet the revenue side of the equation. In fact, cuts will be offset by further declines in revenue. So, yes, bankruptcy is the final result, and exit from the Euro. It's just a question of when, as far as I can see. If it is going to happen anyway, then might as well happen now

catbear

Grandpa Hassan wrote: »

It's just a question of when, as far as I can see. If it is going to happen anyway, then might as well happen now

I agree. After the missed IMF deadline it was over. The fundamental nature of the EU cannot change for Greece's situation without months and possibly years of negotiations.
I really feel sorry of the greek people but they'll have to establish a new relationship with the EU where it will not let itself become a resentful vassal state.
No one wins in this whole thing, it's been a horrible disappointment.

Grandpa Hassan

I don't believe that anyone in the EU, ECB or IMF actually believe that there is any way out of this for Greece. It is just that they need Greece to make the decision about exit. They can hold their line and send a strong message to other countries, as they know that there is little point negotiating, as it ultimately will make no difference to Greece's ability to survive in the euro.

What's the point in negotiating if it will not change the ultimate outcome and just make you look weak?

The Corinthian

catbear wrote: »

Kantonsstrasse 16, 7302 Landquart, Switzerland

I see. In Graubunden. Thank you.

catbear

Grandpa Hassan wrote: »

What's the point in negotiating if it will not change the ultimate outcome and just make you look weak?

If they tried to interject before Tuesday in the internal affairs of the the GReek state it would have given more oxygen to Syriza who would then accuse the EU of imperialism.
No one is actually negotiating anything now and if it's a yes vote no one is entirely sure what there is to discuss on monday.
It's better for the EU if there is a No vote, at least then it can say it respects the right of the greek people and Syriza will be facing a technical committee rather their fellow EU members.

K-9

IrishTrajan wrote: »

Well look at what it's divided into. The German part does all the work, the French complain about the Germans and the Italians don't pay their taxes!

There's a Yes Minister quote in there about that, indeed there is:

Hacker: wrote:

You know what they say about the average Common Market official. He has the organising ability of the Italians, the flexibility of the Germans, and the modesty of the French. And that's topped up by the imagination of the Belgians, the generosity of the Dutch and the intelligence of the Irish.

Wouldn't get away with saying that now.

I think the big difference between Greece and us is I can't imagine the foreign multinationals and the IFSC being too happy if we played the same game as them.

Referendum Website up and running.

Looks extremely independent to me alright!!!

Dohnjoe

Dohnjoe wrote: »

Varoufakis says the banks will have cash next week, other sources saying the banks are almost dry (due to run out on Monday apparently)

Perhaps he's been tasked to tell porky pies to keep public confidence high as economy is grinding to a halt who knows

In fairness not all banks in Greece are equally troubled. There's probably a good deal of overnight interbank lending going on within the Greek financial system.

Varoufakis may be referring to this, or he may be referring to a parallel currency, or he may simply foresee the ECB increasing its liquidity cap to the Greek banks, none of which possibilities are unreasonable.

Deleted User wrote: »

Referendum Website up and running.

Looks extremely independent to me alright!!!

Not every country has rules like the Irish rules on constrained government resources during referendum campaigns. Even the UK doesn't.

Carlos Orange

A Tyrant Named Miltiades! wrote: »

Not every country has rules like the Irish rules on constrained government resources during referendum campaigns. Even the UK doesn't.

I think the UK used to but they decided to get rid of them for the EU referendum.

kidneyfan

Dohnjoe wrote: »

Varoufakis says the banks will have cash next week, other sources saying the banks are almost dry (due to run out on Monday apparently)

Perhaps he's been tasked to tell porky pies to keep public confidence high as economy is grinding to a halt who knows

Maybe they are planning to print Euro in order to keep the economy ticking over.

Good article by Simon Kuper in today's FT. Everybody knows the political origins of the euro, but it's worth reading Kuper's experience as a financial journalist of the consensus around Greek entry to ERM.

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/e1926c6a-1a22-11e5-a130-2e7db721f996.html

My stuff usually appeared on page 33. The boredom hardly lifted when improbable countries such as Greece and Italy entered the ERM. Greece’s entry didn’t even get me on to the front page. The Greeks joined partly just to solve a short-term problem: entering the ERM helped fix the drachma’s rate against other European currencies, and thus stopped the market’s attack. Most traders scarcely noticed. They weren’t paid to think about little Greece. They saw it as merely an amusing subplot: the Greeks had lucked into the euro and would now be fine.

“Greece’s economy is too small for any other country to care much about the price of the drachma”, I wrote. Nobody then imagined (or perhaps cared) that Greek entry into the euro would one day produce Europe’s biggest headache. Few in the markets in 1998 asked: “Will the euro work?” They considered that an issue for the long run, when they would all be dead or, with luck, growing wine on their own estates in Tuscany. Instead, traders asked questions like: “Will Greek ERM entry tomorrow move the Deutschmark?”

Politicians barely noticed such technicalities at all. They tended to see the euro as a political project: “building Europe”. We now know the euro did the opposite: it ended the construction of Europe that had begun in Messina in 1955. Today the European project consists of trying to digest the euro.

Jelle1880

So far it seems like No will win by quite a large margin:

http://ekloges.ypes.gr/current/e/public/index.html?lang=en#

And Varoufakis doesn't like it when a journalists asks him questions when he's 'celebrating'...

https://twitter.com/nevilleskynews/status/617624661329870848

alaimacerc

psinno wrote: »

I think the UK used to but they decided to get rid of them for the EU referendum.

The UK has, after all, an "unwritten constitution".

This is often pretty much a euphemism for "rule-by-decree lite".

I can't see any logical alternative except an ECB refusal to increase the ELA facility cap, and a refusal or an inability (because of time constraints) of the Eurogroup and European Council to agree to a new bailout programme. How could ELA and a new bailout be justified?

Of course, this assumes that the European institutions will behave logically, which hasn't happened in the past.

Has Greece even formally submitted a new bailout request yet? The Commission can only recommend a bailout if the financial stability of the EA is under threat.

A 1%-1.5% fall in European equities is hardly a threat to the financial stability of the EA.

But I say again, it's too early to conclude that a logical approach will be taken.

DublinWriter

twinytwo wrote: »

Problem is the EU cant let greece sink

Any why can't they?

Just in case we're all feeling a little smug, just remember that while Greece is a country of 10 million people and a national debt of €320bn, Ireland remains of country of 4 million people with a national debt of €200bn.

Per capita, we owe more than Greece.

Jelle1880

DublinWriter wrote: »

Any why can't they?

Just in case we're all feeling a little smug, just remember that while Greece is a country of 10 million people and a national debt of €320bn, Ireland remains of country of 4 million people with a national debt of €200bn.

Per capita, we owe more than Greece.

Again: That is not how debt works.

Ireland has a viable economy that can sustain a debt like that so countries and banks are more than happy to loan money to Ireland.

Greece does not have such an economy and their debt will only continue to grow unless either it gets dropped altogether (will never happen) or unless they completely change their economy to one that can pay back parts of it.

Jelle1880

Jelle1880 wrote: »

Again: That is not how debt works.

Ireland has a viable economy that can sustain a debt like that so countries and banks are more than happy to loan money to Ireland.

Irish Government debt is probably sustainable, but I suspect you're ignoring domestic corporate debt and household debt.

Their debt will only continue to grow unless either it gets dropped altogether (will never happen) or unless they completely change their economy to one that can pay back parts of it.

False dichotomy.

There are alternative and painless methods of improving Greek debt sustainability, such as lengthening maturities on Greece's official debt to the EU and EFSF-ESM, and by reducing the interest rates on the former so that the EU doesn't actually make a profit on them. This would massively contribute to Greek debt sustainability, since these combined liabilities comprise the greatest portion of Greece's sovereign debt.

Bruegel has estimated the NPV benefit as being €30 billion, or 17% of GDP

http://www.bruegel.org/nc/blog/detail/article/1533-how-to-reduce-the-greek-debt-burden/

Fratton Fred

DublinWriter wrote: »

Any why can't they?

Just in case we're all feeling a little smug, just remember that while Greece is a country of 10 million people and a national debt of €320bn, Ireland remains of country of 4 million people with a national debt of €200bn.

Per capita, we owe more than Greece.

Yes, but much better fiscal controls and a far better method of collecting taxes.

Fratton Fred

Fratton Fred wrote: »

Yes, but much better fiscal controls and a far better method of collecting taxes.

Really? Greece posted a primary budget surplus when Ireland was still in deficit, even despite their challenges with revenue collection. You seem to be distinguishing fiscal controls and tax collection, so what are the superior fiscal controls you speak of?

Ireland is one of only three EU countries which the Commission has said “require decisive policy action and specific monitoring,” and is one of only eight countries in the EU in MIP categories 4 & 5, in other words, it is one of the eight worst performers in terms of fiscal balance (cast in with the likes of Portugal, Slovenia and Bulgaria).

Ireland seems to suffer from this chronic case of fiscal narcissism, loudly condescending to the Greeks on its supposed fiscal soundness, whilst ignoring or dismissing extraordinary and ongoing domestic profligacy, both governmental and household. It's like Celtic Tiger attitudes never died.

K-9

Well Irelands has consistently improved and is often ahead of targets and we also should be running primary surpluses from now on.

The more right wing think tanks will say we should do more, while the left ones say the opposite, such is budgets!

Well I don't think I can be accused of being on the right, but if one is going to advocate the European ideals of fiscal prudence, they cannot in the same breath boast that Ireland is an example of that. Unless the other enfants terribles, like Greece and Bulgaria, are too.

demfad

tara73 wrote: »

at this stage, I think this Tsipras & Co are just complete nutcases.

Apparently Tsipras now wrote a letter to EU Ministers begging to start negotiations again.
I mean, I thought before they are clowns, but it seems they don't even know in the slightest what they are doing, not even basics how to play the game in politics, but they do it nevertheless. They are a disaster for greece.
where do they come from at all? every 18 year old newbie in politics seems to be smarter than them.

If you impose severe austerity on a country you tend to get radical politics. The best example was the rest of Europe forcing Germany to pay for WW1. That's how Hitler got in.

Not comparing these guys to Hitler, just saying they came about as a result of severe austerity.

Merkel et al must be kicking themselves for forcing Samaras out of office in Greece a few years ago. Wouldn't life be so much easier now.

Saipanne

demfad wrote: »

If you impose severe austerity on a country you tend to get radical politics. The best example was the rest of Europe forcing Germany to pay for WW1. That's how Hitler got in.

Not comparing these guys to Hitler, just saying they came about as a result of severe austerity.

Merkel et al must be kicking themselves for forcing Samaras out of office in Greece a few years ago. Wouldn't life be so much easier now.

FG and Lab are about as radical as you can get.

demfad

Saipanne wrote: »

FG and Lab are about as radical as you can get.

Sinn Fein are though, relatively speaking. That said our austerity is not on the same level of severity as Greece's.

Anyway, the usual suspects have protected themselves against the rise of competing new parties. Even Renua with their rich and professional helpers and supporters had extreme difficulty managing to set up a party. It will be the same players (+ Indos) on this democratic pitch for a long time yet.

Saipanne

demfad wrote: »

Sinn Fein are though, relatively speaking. That said our austerity is not on the same level of severity as Greece's.

Anyway, the usual suspects have protected themselves against the rise of competing new parties. Even Renua with their rich and professional helpers and supporters had extreme difficulty managing to set up a party. It will be the same players (+ Indos) on this democratic pitch for a long time yet.

I think our bailout package was larger, in per capita terms. The real difference is we implemented reforms and stuck to the programme. Greece didn't. The importance of choices.

BlitzKrieg

We normally only ever see these sort of speeches linked here when its nigel ferrage making another propaganda video but I felt this should be shared:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P84tN0z4jqM

kidneyfan

The risk in Ireland is not mass action but political violence.

FreudianSlippers

Saipanne wrote: »

FG and Lab are about as radical as you can get.

The only way I could ever imagine FG or Lab being called radical was if they started skateboarding or something.

FISMA.

If Greece can do it, Ireland certainly can..

... be a dead beat nation? Hopefully not.

ezra_pound

stuar wrote: »

Now that Greece has the EU quaking in their boots, whether they default or not, I think in the next election Ireland will follow suit, except we have a little more to offer ourselves.

For starters tell the IMF, ECB and the bond holders/gamblers should be told to feck off.

Get out of the EU, get rid of the euro and back to the punt, become sovereign again.

Export as much as we wish, to who we wish, do away with farmers subsidies to not grow good crops on good fertile land, most our land is wasted on doing nothing.



Do away with livestock export quotas, this quota, that quota, this cap, that cap, just basically produce and sell, sell, sell.


Let fishermen fish in our territorial waters, and bring in the haul they catch, instead of worrying about EU fines and dumping thousands of tons of edible dead fish overboard each year.


Tell Royal Dutch Shell we've changed our minds on the corrib gas field and we'll pay them back their investment so far, in time, and let our gas be our gas. We just have to hire experts, let them do their work and then pay them and say bye, bye, then some of the Irish expats that emigrated and worked in the industry may return home.

Do likewise with the potential 1.7 billion barrels of oil off the west Cork coast, create our own nationalised energy company, we have the energy, who want's to buy some,crude prices may have fallen temporary but they'll soon rise again when the US/Russia/Saudi Arabia crap is over.



Just an idea......

Thank Enda we're not Greece!

ezra_pound

BlitzKrieg wrote: »

We normally only ever see these sort of speeches linked here when its nigel ferrage making another propaganda video but I felt this should be shared:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P84tN0z4jqM

The man is an absolute legend.

NorthStars

Good to see the Greek economy showing signs of growth at last.

https://www.google.ie/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=12&ved=0CGIQFjALahUKEwjcio2F66bHAhXtF9sKHSBiAWk&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.rte.ie%2Fnews%2Fbusiness%2F2015%2F0813%2F720975-greek-economy-grew-in-second-quarter%2F&ei=vPXMVdy8He2v7AagxIXIBg&usg=AFQjCNGkR7xQETB4lHXnrbap4sWSF6Sp4w

Economic growth plus the spectre of a fairly substantial debt writedown on the horizon after a package is agreed with their creditors.

Kenny and his cronies should take note.

Carlos Orange

NorthStars wrote: »

Good to see the Greek economy showing signs of growth at last.

That was in Q2. I think the assumption is the debt fiasco killed any recovery.

catbear

stuar wrote: »

Now that Greece has the EU quaking in their boots, whether they default or not, I think in the next election Ireland will follow suit, except we have a little more to offer ourselves.

The first line of this thread is so funny.

K-9

NorthStars wrote: »

Good to see the Greek economy showing signs of growth at last.

https://www.google.ie/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=12&ved=0CGIQFjALahUKEwjcio2F66bHAhXtF9sKHSBiAWk&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.rte.ie%2Fnews%2Fbusiness%2F2015%2F0813%2F720975-greek-economy-grew-in-second-quarter%2F&ei=vPXMVdy8He2v7AagxIXIBg&usg=AFQjCNGkR7xQETB4lHXnrbap4sWSF6Sp4w

Economic growth plus the spectre of a fairly substantial debt writedown on the horizon after a package is agreed with their creditors.

Kenny and his cronies should take note.

Its hardly at last though, they came out of recession last year.

NorthStars

psinno wrote: »

That was in Q2. I think the assumption is the debt fiasco killed any recovery.

That remains to be seen.
You see, Greece will get their 'bailout' deal and after that they'll get their debt writedown (as demanded by the IMF of all people).
Their country will recover.
The thing that p1sses people in Ireland off the most is that Dear Leader kenny hadn't the gumption or the nerve to even ask for a debt writedown.
The time to do that was in the summer of 2011, when he had a strong mandate from the people to do just that.
He failed Ireland then, just as he's been failing Ireland since.
All that happened here was that FG followed the plan drawn up by the troika and FF.
Kenny will be remembered for what he is...the lion in the wizard of oz.

Saipanne

Who in their right mind would envy Greece's position?

NorthStars

NorthStars wrote: »

That remains to be seen.
You see, Greece will get their 'bailout' deal and after that they'll get their debt writedown (as demanded by the IMF of all people).
Their country will recover.
The thing that p1sses people in Ireland off the most is that Dear Leader kenny hadn't the gumption or the nerve to even ask for a debt writedown.
The time to do that was in the summer of 2011, when he had a strong mandate from the people to do just that.
He failed Ireland then, just as he's been failing Ireland since.
All that happened here was that FG followed the plan drawn up by the troika and FF.
Kenny will be remembered for what he is...the lion in the wizard of oz.

Do you believe that Greece will recover faster than Ireland?

What metrics do you wish to compare the two on?
What baseline?

FreudianSlippers

catbear wrote: »

The first line of this thread is so funny.

I'm not sure what's more funny. The first line, the title or the date of OP (considering it's really a thread about Ireland pulling a Greece)

FreudianSlippers

NorthStars wrote: »

That remains to be seen.
You see, Greece will get their 'bailout' deal and after that they'll get their debt writedown (as demanded by the IMF of all people).
Their country will recover.
The thing that p1sses people in Ireland off the most is that Dear Leader kenny hadn't the gumption or the nerve to even ask for a debt writedown.
The time to do that was in the summer of 2011, when he had a strong mandate from the people to do just that.
He failed Ireland then, just as he's been failing Ireland since.
All that happened here was that FG followed the plan drawn up by the troika and FF.
Kenny will be remembered for what he is...the lion in the wizard of oz.

What do you make of the fact that Greece is going to be at the apron-strings of the Troika Institutions for considerably longer than Ireland will have been?

Carlos Orange

NorthStars wrote: »

That remains to be seen.

I guess but when I read about the trouble businesses had in Greece due to not being able to pay suppliers outside of Greece I think it is a given that the modest recovery they had is gone.

NorthStars

Saipanne wrote: »

Who in their right mind would envy Greece's position?

Nope, I don't envy them at all.

I'm pointing out though, especially to all the usual crew on this site who were rubbing their hands (and whatever else) with glee a few weeks ago at the thought of Greece being thrown out of the Eurozone and comparing their tactics to 'the shinners', that Greece is still in the Eurozone, has it's bailout programme and will be getting a debt writedown as the IMF has said it will require.

To be fair though, most of the aforementioned crew spend their time in the cafe under the bridge, and it's where they're most suited tbh.

Amirani

NorthStars wrote: »

Nope, I don't envy them at all.

I'm pointing out though, especially to all the usual crew on this site who were rubbing their hands (and whatever else) with glee a few weeks ago at the thought of Greece being thrown out of the Eurozone and comparing their tactics to 'the shinners', that Greece is still in the Eurozone, has it's bailout programme and will be getting a debt writedown as the IMF has said it will require.

To be fair though, most of the aforementioned crew spend their time in the cafe under the bridge, and it's where they're most suited tbh.

Their debt will still be higher than Ireland's after any debt writedown. Why would Ireland get a debt write-down when our debt/gdp ratio is lower than Belgium or Italy's?

NorthStars

Diego Simeone wrote: »

Their debt will still be higher than Ireland's after any debt writedown. Why would Ireland get a debt write-down when our debt/gdp ratio is lower than Belgium or Italy's?

Sure why would we even ask for a writedown of some of the debt taken on by the taxpayer, on the instruction of Ireland's european overlords, in order to save cowboy banks in a corrupted european banking system?

Some people accept what happened to Ireland.
I don't.

NorthStars

Deleted User wrote: »

Do you believe that Greece will recover faster than Ireland?

What metrics do you wish to compare the two on?
What baseline?

Never said that Greece would recover faster.
Didn't compare the two economies, only the fact that our serf's didn't ask for a writedown.
There is no baseline.

BoJack Horseman

NorthStars wrote: »

Never said that Greece would recover faster.
Didn't compare the two economies, only the fact that our serf's didn't ask for a writedown.
There is no baseline.

So you agree that the Irish governments economic recovery plan was better then the Greek's?

Jolly Red Giant

The following example gives a flavour of how the Troika are engaged in a vicious class war against working class people in Greece.

One of the diktats of the troika was to impose VAT of 23 % on food (some items are 13%). Over the past 6 years large numbers of people who have been impoverished by the troika's austerity have started to grow some of their own food, many have moved to rural areas to live with elderly relatives to get access to small patches of land to grow vegetables. Many people who grow small quantities of food regularly give some of the food to neighbours and friends who can't afford to buy much food.

The latest batch of troika diktats will compel the Greek government to stop people growing their own veg on the basis that because they are growing food instead of buying it they are engaging in tax evasion because they are not paying VAT on the food they grow.

How utterly daft is that?

NorthStars

NorthStars wrote: »

Nope, I don't envy them at all.

I'm pointing out though, especially to all the usual crew on this site who were rubbing their hands (and whatever else) with glee a few weeks ago at the thought of Greece being thrown out of the Eurozone and comparing their tactics to 'the shinners', that Greece is still in the Eurozone, has it's bailout programme and will be getting a debt writedown as the IMF has said it will require.

To be fair though, most of the aforementioned crew spend their time in the cafe under the bridge, and it's where they're most suited tbh.

Win win for Greece is it? You make it sound like there's absolutely zero cost to the debt restructuring (which was promised to the previous government upon succesful exit of the previous bailout)

NorthStars

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

So you agree that the Irish governments economic recovery plan was better then the Greek's?

The Greeks were/are in a far worse position than us.
There's no comparison.
FYI, it wasn't the current governments economic recovery plan, it was a plan decided on by the troika and the previous government.