February 2015 Boards forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

Sorry to say that we are running late with the entry form, I have put in a request, but as the deadline is looming, let's go ahead with the thread, you can choose any of these options for entering -- just post the old-fashioned way on the thread, post in the January form (page one of the Jan contest) and I will transfer your forecast to this thread, or wait and see if a form appears and then use that later today or on Saturday, Sunday etc.

As soon as I see a new entry form in the link, or maybe as soon as one of you sees it, we'll post it here.

So meanwhile, here are the questions, at least you can think about the answers even if you want to wait a day to post in the entry form.

(the usual five plus a bonus) ...

1. Predict the IMT for the mean temperature at five locations, Claremorris, Mullingar, Casement, Oak Park (Carlow) and Shannon. The 1981-2010 mean or average was 5.2 C.

2. Predict the MAX (highest temperature of the month) at any of the listed Met-Eireann stations as reported in the Monthly Summary.

3. Predict the MIN (lowest temperature of the month) at any of the listed Met-Eireann stations as reported in the Monthly Summary.

4. Predict the PRC (precipitation) as a percentage of normal at the eleven stations used by Met-E in their Monthly Summary report.

5. Predict the SUN (sunshine) as a percentage of normal at the six stations used by Met-E in their Monthly Summary report.

6. Bonus -- For Valentines' Day (14 Feb) predict both the highest maximum and the lowest minimum temperatures, and give locations that could earn you 2 or 3 extra points if you're correct. The majority of the points will be awarded for the correct temperatures.

This template could be used by anyone who wants to enter directly in the thread:

IMT __ MAX __ MIN __ PRC __ SUN __ Max14 (loc) __ Min14 (loc)

Just to clarify one point, the minimum on the 14th would be the lowest overnight minimum, not the lowest daytime max.

Once again, sorry about the delay and I hope we get this straightened out later today.

The deadline in any case will be 0300h Monday 2 Feb, so you have the weekend to ponder these weighty matters (and avoid freezing to death).

Good luck !

dacogawa

Hey M.T. Thanks for all your hard work on the competition (as always) just checking I take it you meant Monday the 0300h 5th for the closing date?

M.T. Cranium

Awkward, no I meant Monday the 2nd at 0300h, you must be looking at a January calendar. (I am a bit thick and sensing that I just didn't quite get a joke there, sorry if so) -- penalties begin 2nd at 0300h but folks can enter as late as they want, given that scores are reduced 5% every half-day from then to the end of entries.

Still no new entry form but I have posted in the January entry form so you can pretend that's for February and your posts would appear under my "this is February" notice with appropriate time stamps. We'll sort it out later.

Once again, to access the January entry form, go to page one of January's thread. Then proceed as if you had the right form, I will find your entries there and bring them into the table and the new entry form if we ever get one.

Harps

Done...

Entered via the January thread

pauldry

Ill just post here

4.5 ...12...-6...105...109...9sherkin ...-1 mullingar

M.T. Cranium

This will be my entry, hopefully we will have the entry form up really soon, but you can do what Harps did and enter in the January form if you wish.

IMT 2.3

MAX 12.5

MIN -9.5

PRC 40%

SUN 205%

on the 14th, max of 9.2 at Valentia and min of -3.5 at Mountdillon.

Good luck everyone. Sorry if I came off a bit sarcastic above, wasn't sure if I maybe missed a joke there.

Schadenfreudia

IMT __ 5.1
MAX __13.1
MIN __-7.5C
PRC __88
SUN __ 118
Max14 7.8 Valentia
Min14 0.9 Ballyhaise

jd

IMT __ 5.3
MAX __12.8
MIN __-7.3C
PRC __92
SUN __ 107
7.9 Valentia
-3 Oak Park

DOCARCH

4.8 __ 13.6 __-7.2 __ 88% __ 108% __ 9.8 (Valentia) __-0.8 (Casement)

dasa29

5.0 __ 13.0 __-7.5 __ 95% __ 110% __ 12.5 (Valentia) __-3.0 (Mullingar)

Jpmarn

IMT 5.2

MAX 12.8

MIN -7.4

PRC 85%

SUN 135%

on the 14th, max of 8.1 at sherkin island and min of -3.8 at Dublin Airport.

Schadenfreudia

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

IMT 2.3

MAX 12.5

MIN -9.5

PRC 40%

SUN 205%

You are going for a repeat of the phenomenally cold, sunny, frosty but snow-less Feb 1986! That means a lot of East wind??

omicron

4.2 __ 13.5 __-7.0 __ 90% __ 110% __ 11.0 (Valentia) __-2.0 (Ballyhaise)

Bsal

IMT 5.0

MAX 13.3

MIN -5.5

PRC 102%

SUN 105%

on the 14th, max of 9.8 at Sherkin and min of -1.1 at Gurteen.

M.T. Cranium

Thus far, no changes in the entry form mystery (my assistant may be on holiday perhaps, if I try to change the forms around it will likely screw up the whole system so maybe next month, for now let's all enter here then ... )

As Harps was the only entrant to use the January form, this is the entry as shown there:

(Harps) ___ 4.8 __ 12.9 __ -6.2 __ 70 __ 110 ___ 7.2 (Valentia) and -1.2 (Ballyhaise)

If anyone else uses that form, I will post those entries over here too.

As to the 1986 analogy, might be so, although I am thinking very cold first half mostly under almost calm winds then a milder spell and some very cold days near the end, otherwise I would maybe have predicted 3.5 to 4.0, but suspect this winter is very much back-loaded like 2012-13 was.

waterways

4.3 __ 13 __ -7.8 __ 51__ 127 __ 11 (Shannon) __ 0 (Ballyhaise)

Rikand

5.0 ..... 14.0 ...... -5.0 ...... 90 ....... 120 ........ 8.0 (Johnstown Castle) ........ -2.5 (Mt. Dillon)

mickger844posts

IMT 4.1 MAX 14.1 MIN -7.8 PRC 85 SUN 120 Max14 Valentia 11.1 Min14 Oak Park -1.2

sunflower3

4.8 __ 14.4 __ -6.2 __ 62__ 125 __ 12.2 (Shannon) __ 2.1 (Oak Park)

rameire

5.1 __ 12.7 __ -5,6 __ 134 __ 103 __ 9.1 MOOREPARK CORK __ -2.0 MARKREE SLIGO

mrskinner

4.4____13.1____-7____83%____107%____8.2 Valentia____3.4 Mullingar

kindredspirit

5.2 13.0 -6 80 110 10 Valentia -2 Ballyhaise

Joe Public

IMT 2.9

MAX 15.5

MIN -8.9

PRC 60%

SUN 159%

on the 14th, max of 11.9 at Roche's Pt. and min of -2.9 at Gurteen.

Lumi

4.7 ..... 13.5 ...... -7.0 ...... 100 ....... 102 ........ 10.0 (Valentia) ........ -1.5 (Oak Park)

Tae laidir

5.3...14.0...-5.5...75...115...11.5 (Valentia)...4.4 (Knock Airport)

dacogawa

Apologies M.T. I was looking at the January calender my bad, sorry!

IMT 4.9 MAX 13.1 MIN -7.0 PRC 72% SUN 122% Max 8.6 (Markree) Min -3.2 (Oakpark)

M.T. Cranium

No worries, this whole contest thread has been a bit of a trainwreck so far, waiting for the IMT to soar to 8 C now.

I will wait for a day or so then post a table of forecasts, as one or two regulars seem to be a little bit late. (penalty time just started)

John mac

5.1 __ 14 __ -4.7 __ 110__98 __ 11 (sherkin) __ oak park (-1)

BLIZZARD7

IMT 3.3C MAX 12.4C MIN -14.2C PRC 85% SUN 120% Max14 __ 6.9C (Valentia) Min14__ -10.5C (Birr)

Rikand

In hindsight, I think February will be one of the months I discount from my total at the end of this year

M.T. Cranium

Birr no longer reports so I will change that to Gurteen which is fairly close. The January forecast contest is now scored after some minor adjustments to the provisional numbers.

Here's a table of entries for February so far ... can be edited if we get any later ones.

Forecasts for February 2015

FORECASTER _________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ MAX and MIN 14th

Tae laidir ____________ 5.3 _ 14.0 _ -5.5 _ 075 _ 115 __11.5 VAL _ +4.4 KNO
jd __________________ 5.3 _ 12.8 _ -7.3 _ 092 _ 107 ___7.9 VAL _ -3.0 OAK
kindredspirit __________5.2 _ 13.0 _ -6.0 _ 080 _ 110 __10.0 VAL _ -2.0 BAL
Jpmarn ______________5.2 _ 12.8 _ -7.4 _ 085 _ 135 ___8.1 SHE _ -3.8 DUB
John mac __ (-5) ______5.1 _ 14.0 _ -4.7 _ 110 _ 098 __11.0 SHE _ -1.0 OAK
Schadenfreudia _______ 5.1 _ 13.1 _ -7.5 _ 088 _ 118 ___7.8 VAL _ +0.9 BAL
rameire _____________ 5.1 _ 12.7 _ -5.6 _ 134 _ 103 ___9.1 MOO _ -2.0 MAR
Rikand ______________ 5.0 _ 14.0 _ -5.0 _ 090 _ 120 ___8.0 J.C. _ -2.5 MTD
Bsal ________________ 5.0 _ 13.3 _ -5.5 _ 102 _ 105 ___9.8 SHE _ -1.1 GUR
dasa29 ______________5.0 _ 13.0 _ -7.5 _ 095 _ 110 __ 12.5 VAL _ -3.0 MUL
dacogawa ___________ 4.9 _ 13.1 _ -7.0 _ 072 _ 122 ___ 8.6 MAR _ -3.2 OAK
sunflower3 ___________4.8 _ 14.4 _ -6.2 _ 062 _ 125 __12.2 SHA _ +2.1 OAK

Con Sensus __________ 4.8 _ 13.1 _ -7.0 _ 085 _ 110 __ 9.8 VAL _ -1.5 OAK

DOCARCH ____________4.8 _ 13.6 _ -7.2 _ 088 _ 108 ___9.8 VAL _ -0.8 CAS
Harps _______________ 4.8 _ 12.9 _ -6.2 _ 070 _ 110 ___7.2 VAL _ -1.2 BAL
Lumi ________________4.7 _ 13.5 _ -7.0 _ 100 _ 102 __10.0 VAL _ -1.5 OAK
Pauldry ______________4.5 _ 12.0 _ -6.0 _ 105 _ 109 ___9.0 SHE _ -1.0 MUL
Mrskinner ____________4.4 _ 13.1 _ -7.0 _ 083 _ 107 ___8.2 VAL _ +3.4 MUL
waterways ___________ 4.3 _ 13.0 _ -7.8 _ 051 _ 127 __11.0 SHA __0.0 BAL
omicron _____________ 4.2 _ 13.5 _ -7.0 _ 090 _ 110 __11.0 VAL _ -2.0 BAL
mickger844posts ______ 4.1 _ 14.1 _ -7.8 _ 085 _ 120 __11.1 VAL _ -1.2 OAK
BLIZZARD7 ___(-5) ____3.3 _ 12.4 _-14.2 _ 085 _ 120___6.9C VAL_-10.5 GUR
Joe Public ____________ 2.9 _ 15.5 _ -8.9 _ 060 _ 159 __11.9 ROC _ -2.9 GUR
M.T. Cranium _________ 2.3 _ 12.5 _ -9.5 _ 040 _ 205 ___9.2 VAL _ -3.5 MTD
_________________________________________________________

23 forecasts, median for consensus is 12th ranked value in each case.

The consensus is for a rather cold, dry and sunny month in general. For the max and min on the 14th, these were the preferred locations:

LOCATION ___________ MAX ___ MIN

Valentia _____________13 _____ 0
Sherkin ______________4 _____ 0
Shannon _____________2 _____ 0
Roche's Point _________ 1 _____ 0
Johnstown Castle ______ 1 _____ 0
Moorepark____________ 1 _____ 0
Markree ______________1 _____ 1
Knock _______________ 0 _____ 1
Casement ____________ 0 _____ 1
Dublin _______________ 0 _____ 1
Mountdillon ___________ 0 _____ 2
Mullingar _____________ 0 _____ 3
Gurteen ______________0 _____ 3
Ballyhaise ____________ 0 _____ 5
Oak Park _____________ 0 _____ 6

Interesting, because some of the preferred cold spots could be warmest but they were not chosen as such, looks like the field generally thinks the persistent anticyclone shown on recent charts will still have some influence by the 14th.