February 2015 Boards forecast contest

Bsal

I heard Siobhan Moore say Dublin airport reached -8c at 8am Tuesday.

omicron

Bsal wrote: »

I heard Siobhan Moore say Dublin airport reached -8c at 8am Tuesday.

-7.7 at 7am was the min according to Ogimet.

Joe Public

It's down as -7.9C at Dublin Airport for 3rd Feb

200motels

I completely forgot about this month.

M.T. Cranium

So, just returning from a few days away, the IMT after nine days stood at 2.2 C and there has been almost no precip yet, sunshine looks to be well up there around 150% despite the odd cloudy day.

M.T. Cranium

IMT after 14 days was at 3.2 C

PRC after 14 days about 20% of normal

SUN after 14 days about 100% of normal (last five days generally rather cloudy)

Bonus -- 11.4 at VAL (Valentia) and --1.0 at MAR (Markree) are given as the extremes in the daily report.

Tae laidir (off only 0.1), omicron and mickger844posts will share in the (5+1) max points for the high, Joe Public, John mac and waterways will get 5 but no bonus, meanwhile for the min, the four closest (and ties) were Johnmac and Pauldry with exact forecasts, while bsal 0.1 out, then DOCARCH, harps and mickger844posts were all within 0.2, none of them had MAR, only rameire chose that location for the bonus point. Quite a few others will share the bonus point for choosing Valentia.

M.T. Cranium

MAX of 13.2 at Casement, Gurteen and Mullingar on Wed 18th.

Schadenfreudia

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

MAX of 13.2 at Casement, Gurteen and Mullingar on Wed 18th.

I beat that by 0.2 degrees! Any extra points for that?

M.T. Cranium

As that stands it would be worth 18 of the possible 20 points. I guess my 40% of normal precip is going to get washed away fairly soon but it was a good try -- would not be surprised if the final result is about 60-70.

M.T. Cranium

So after three weeks (not counting today's rain or milder temps) the values are

IMT 3.8 C (should finish around 4.0)

PRC 48% of normal (may take a run up to perhaps 70%)

SUN 98% (approximate) with this past week near 95%, more likely to go down than up it would appear

As far as I know, max is 13.2 and min -7.9 C. Neither looks overly threatened although with the rising normal values any mildish day could boost 13.2 a few tenths.

Therefore, a rather cold, dry month in climate terms although divided into a very cold and bone dry first ten days and a near normal and somewhat unsettled mid-month period with further storminess to come.

Rikand

March contest ?

Tis only a couple of days till March!

M.T. Cranium

Posting it now.

M.T. Cranium

14.2 on Wed 25th at Roches Point appears to be our new MAX.

M.T. Cranium

IMT finished at 4.4 C

PRC is 80% (will confirm from MS)

SUN estimate 95%

MAX and MIN so far would appear to be 14.2 and -7.9

Will post some scores on Tuesday when MS appears ... from a quick look at the forecasts, I think the highest score might be Mickger844posts who has about 87 give or take.

M.T. Cranium

Confirmed most of the above estimates, scoring to follow later this evening.

IMT 4.4 C

MAX 14.2 C

MIN -7.9 C

PRC 80%

SUN 102%

Bonus was discussed earlier in the thread (11.4 Valentia, -1.0 Markree)

Will post some scores in about two hours.

M.T. Cranium

Scoring for February 2015

FORECASTER _________IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN___Bonus max,min ___ TOTALS

mickger844posts ______ 22 _ 19 _ 19 _ 13 _ 06 __ 5+1 _ 5+0 _______ 90
DOCARCH ____________21 _ 14 _ 13 _ 12 _ 09 __ 4+1 _ 5+0 _______ 79
omicron _____________ 23 _ 13 _ 11 _ 12 _ 08 __ 5+1 _ 4+0 _______ 77
Lumi ________________22 _ 13 _ 11 _ 08 _ 10 __ 3+1 _ 4+0 _______ 72
Mrskinner ____________25 _ 09 _ 11 _ 14 _ 09 __ 1+1 _ 1+0 _______ 71

Con Sensus __________ 21 _ 09 _ 11 _ 13 _ 08 __ 4+1 _ 4+0 _______ 71

waterways ___________ 24 _ 08 _ 19 _ 05 _ 05 __ 5+0 _ 4+0 _______ 70
dasa29 ______________19 _ 08 _ 16 _ 10 _ 08 __ 4+1 _ 3+0 _______ 69
Schadenfreudia _______ 18 _ 09 _ 16 _ 12 _ 07 __ 1+1 _ 3+0 _______ 67
dacogawa ___________ 20 _ 09 _ 11 _ 12 _ 06 __ 2+0 _ 2+0 _______ 62
sunflower3 ___________21 _ 18 _ 03 _ 09 _ 05 __ 4+0 _ 1+0 _______ 61
jd __________________16 _ 06 _ 14 _ 11 _ 09 __ 1+1 _ 3+0 _______ 61
Tae laidir ____________ 16 _ 18 _ 00 _ 13 _ 07 __ 5+1 _ 0+0 _______ 60
Rikand ______________ 19 _ 18 _ 00 _ 12 _ 06 __ 1+0 _ 3+0 _______ 59
Harps _______________ 21 _ 07 _ 03 _ 12 _ 08 __ 0+1 _ 5+0 _______ 57
kindredspirit __________17 _ 08 _ 01 _ 15 _ 08 __ 3+1 _ 4+0 _______ 57
Jpmarn ______________17 _ 06 _ 15 _ 13 _ 04 __ 1+0 _ 1+0 _______ 57
John mac __ (-5) ______18 _ 18 _ 00 _ 05 _ 09 __ 5+0 _ 5+0 __ 60-5= 55
Bsal ________________ 19 _ 11 _ 00 _ 08 _ 09 __ 3+0 _ 5+0 _______ 55
Pauldry ______________24 _ 00 _ 01 _ 07 _ 09 __ 2+0 _ 5+0 _______ 48
Joe Public ____________10 _ 07 _ 10 _ 08 _ 00 __ 4+0 _ 3+0 _______ 42
rameire _____________ 18 _ 05 _ 00 _ 00 _ 10 __ 2+0 _ 4+1 _______ 40
BLIZZARD7 ___(-5) ____14 _ 02 _ 00 _ 13 _ 06 __ 0+1 _ 0+0 __ 36-5=31
M.T. Cranium _________04 _ 03 _ 04 _ 02 _ 00 __ 2+1 _ 1+0 _______ 17
_________________________________________________________

So, congrats to Mickger844posts with one of the higher scores recorded in these contests (90) followed by very respectable 79 from DOCARCH and 77 from omicron.

Meanwhile, I am doing my part to keep Con under some sort of control anyway.

Will post a combined annual and winter season table in about an hour or so.

M.T. Cranium

This table combines the winter seasonal scoring (including Dec 2014) with the annual 2015 scoring. The December and winter numbers will disappear when this returns at the end of March.

Scores are ranked by 2015 totals, winter points follow roughly similar order and the points are awarded as follows -- 10 for first, 7 for second, 6 for third, then following that progression to 1 for 8th, 9th and 10th places. Con Sensus is scored along with the actual forecasters but nobody under that score loses ranking points. You have to enter all three months to qualify for four seasons points.


FORECASTER ____________ Dec __ Jan __ Feb ___ Winter _ points ___ 2015 Total

DOCARCH ________________69 __ 75 __ 79 ______ 223 ____ 7 _____ 154
Rikand __________________ 81 __ 84 __ 59 ______ 224 ____10 _____ 143

Con Sensus ______________ 75 __ 70 __ 71 ______ 216 ____ 6 _____ 141

mickger844posts __________ 64 __ 50 __ 90 ______ 204 ____ 4 _____ 140
Lumi ____________________--- __ 68 __ 72 ______ ---- ____ -- _____ 140
jd ______________________ 80 __ 72 __ 61 ______ 213 ____ 6 _____ 133
Bsal ____________________ 63 __ 77 __ 55 ______ 195 ____ 2 _____ 132
sunflower3 _______________ 56 __ 69 __ 61 ______ 186 ____ 1 _____ 130
John mac ________________ 46 __ 73 __ 55 ______ 174 ____ -- _____ 128
Schadenfreudia ___________ --- __ 61 __ 67 ______ ---- ____ -- _____ 128
Harps ___________________ 85 __ 69 __ 57 ______ 211 ____ 5 _____ 126
Jpmarn __________________56 __ 64 __ 57 ______ 177 ____ -- _____ 121
kindredspirit ______________ 84 __ 63 __ 57 ______ 204 ____ 4 _____ 120
omicron __________________66 __ 41 __ 77 ______ 184 ____ 1 _____ 118
dasa29 __________________ 55 __ 47 __ 69 ______ 171 ____ -- _____ 116
Joe Public ________________ 65 __ 69 __ 42 ______ 176 ____ -- _____ 111
dacogawa ________________ 71 __ 48 __ 62 ______ 181 ____ 1 _____ 110
Pauldry __________________ 71 __ 51 __ 48 ______ 170 ____ -- ______ 99
rameire __________________ 57 __ 55 __ 40 ______ 152 ____ -- ______ 95
Tae laidir _________________63 __ 33 __ 60 ______ 156 ____ -- ______ 93
M.T. Cranium _____________ 41 __ 68 __ 17 ______ 126 ____ -- ______ 85
Mrskinner ________________--- __ --- __ 71 _______---- ____ -- ______ 71
waterways _______________ 75 __ --- __ 70 ______ ---- ____ -- ______ 70
lostinashford ______________56 __ 56 __ --- ______ ---- ____ -- ______ 56
delw ____________________ 59 __ 48 __ --- ______ ---- ____ -- ______ 48
blue5000 ________________ --- __ 45 __ --- ______ ---- ____ -- ______ 45
BLIZZARD7 ______________ --- __ --- __ 31 ______ ---- ____ -- ______ 31
200motels _______________ 55 __ 30 __ --- ______ ---- ____ -- ______ 30

only played December 2014

Okla ___________________ 63 __ --- __ --- ______ ---- ____ -- ______ ---
YouTookMyName _________ 43 __ --- __ --- ______ ---- ____ -- ______ ---

________________________________________________________

No worries if you have missed one month this year, the contest is based on your best ten out of twelve, tables will start to show this scoring system later in the year. Congrats to DOCARCH and rikand for staying ahead of the ever-chasing Con Sensus, and in the opposite order for finishing 1-2 in the winter seasonal points award.