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Weekend Racing Thread
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30-01-2015 10:46am#1Sandown Park 3:00 - Betfred Mobile Heroes Handicap Hurdle(Grade 3) (1) 2m6f
Tony McCoy rode Arabian Revolution to victory for John Ferguson here at Sandown earlier this month and I find it interesting that he has been acquired to ride MIJHAAR for the same connections this weekend. The 7 year old Shirocco gelding will have the burden of top weight but he has shown enough to suggest he is up to taking a race of this nature. He ran a good race when 3rd behind Dawalan in a very decent Aintree handicap back in December over 2m4f. He seems to really enjoy a bit of cut in the ground and he found just one too good on heavy ground at Ayr last time out when 2nd over 2m5f. This is a step up in grade, but this horse looks like he can improve as he goes up in trip so take the 12/1 with Bet Victor.
The very progressive looking Polamco heads the betting for the bang in form Harry Fry yard who have got the year off to a flyer. The 6 year old won handicaps at Newbury and Wincanton and will be looking for his hat-trick this weekend but at the prices he doesn't offer much value in my opinion, for all he is improving. At a big price, the Sophie Leech trained Anteros is not ruled out as he has no stamina or ground concerns. The 7 year old was well beat when 2nd behind Blaklion at Cheltenham over 3 miles recently but that was still an eye-catching run and a repeat puts him bang in the mix here. He again ran an ok race when 4th in a Grade 2 at Warwick last time out, on very heavy ground.
The ultra consistent Saffron Wells might look an each-way bet to nothing here and I couldn't put anyone off him. The 7 year old has shown some smart form, including a 2nd behind Brave Vic in a Grade 2 here at Sandown last March. He ran a good race behind Polamco at Newbury just after Christmas when 3rd and he backed that up with another solid run behind the extremely impressive winner Tea For Two at Kempton when last seen. My money is on the John Ferguson trained Mijhaar though with Tony McCoy booked to ride. He seemed to appreciate the step up in trip last time out and I think the further step up in trip will suit. I don't think the 12/1 will last about the horse.
Mijhaar - 1 Point each-way @ 12/1 Bet Victor1
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Sandown Park 2:25 - Betfred Tv Scilly Isles Novices' Chase(Grade 1) (1) 2m4f 110yds
I am really looking forward to this five runner Grade 1 tomorrow, as all five runners have solid claims in my opinion. I am pretty surprised to see the Alan King trained GRUMETI as big as 11/1 with Betway though, I thought he would be half that price. On the figures, he does have a few pounds to find with some of his rivals but he stayed on strongly in the mud at Plumpton last time out to beat Chris Pea Green and Sail By The Sea. The David Pipe horse, Sail By The Sea, hacked up by 10 lengths at Chepstow today so the form has been franked nicely. The step up to just shy of 2m5f should be in Grumeti's favour tomorrow and he already looks a much better chaser than hurdler, winning two of his first three over the bigger obstacles.
Splash Of Ginge won a very tough Grade 3 handicap at Cheltenham on New Year's Day, beating Hunt Ball by just under 4 lengths. He has to come here with a good chance on the back of that run, but he is much more suited to a more testing track like Cheltenham, and he adores the hill there. In saying that, he is a former Betfair Hurdle winner, is guaranteed to get the trip and will enjoy the ground so has to be feared. Willie Mullins sends Gitane Du Berlais over to take his chance but because Willie has a shocking record over fences in the UK, I am willing to take him on. The stats say back his hurdlers in the UK, but not his chasers and although he has solid form claims, I'll go against him for value reasons.
Champagne West only found the very smart Ptit Zig too good at Cheltenham last time out but the Philip Hobbs runner still comes here with a major chance on the back of that run. He stays all day, but possibly would prefer a bit further on a track like Cheltenham to bring out the best in him. He has never run at Sandown before so there are slight question marks as to how he will handle it. Irish Saint has won here before which has to be a plus and is in form but the price isn't too appealing. I had a small bet on Grumeti who looks a big price at 11/1 in my opinion. He has looked a different prospect since he has been sent chasing and he might surprise a few tomorrow I reckon.
Grumeti - 1 Point WIN @ 11/1 Betway0 -
Wetherby 3:20 - Totepool Towton Novices' Chase(Grade 2) (1) 3m1f
Sue Smith has two runners here in this quality novices' race at Wetherby tomorrow but of the two the most interesting for me is RATTLIN. The 7 year old mare is the only course winner in the field so her experience around here could be an advantage. She has been nowhere near her best on her last two runs, beaten 118 lengths at Uttoxeter behind Top Totti back in December and beaten 28 lengths at Musselburgh last time out. A return to this course and distance might be just what is needed though, as she bolted up by 8 lengths here in December 2013. She ran a very good race here over an inadequate 2m4f when 4th behind Secrete Stream back in November and she certainly has a place chance if back to her best.
Alan King's Ned Stark has to be an interesting runner, a horse that will stay and is still very lightly raced, full of potential. The 7 year old completed a hat-trick at Newbury in November and travelled well for a long way when 4th behind Ptit Zig in the Dipper Chase at Cheltenham last time out. This race is slightly easier so it will be no surprise if he were to get his head back in front. Return Spring is a very classy horse on his day and for all he is inconsistent, if he is on a going day he would be very hard to beat. His jumping really let him down at Warwick last time out and as a consequence he was pulled up but the drop back in trip should be in his favour and he hails from a powerful yard.
Kaki De La Pree comes here with a big chance for the in-form Tom Symonds yard. The 7 year old was a clear second behind the sometimes very talented Gevrey Chambertain of the David Pipe yard at Newbury last time out. He was also a clear second in a Grade 2 behind Toubeera at Haydock on his final start of last season so he has to enter the reckoning. Top Totti and Tonvadosa also have claims, especially the McCain horse as the yard have come to life over the last couple of days. In what is a really tricky race to try and solve, I have plumped for Rattlin who showed some very decent form last season and I am hoping the return to this track will revitalise her.
Rattlin - 1 Point each-way @ 12/1 Sky Bet
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Ffos Las 2:05 - Betway Welsh Champion Hurdle(LIMITED HANDICAP) (2) 2m4f
Sophie Leech has had a few winners over the past month or so including RADMORES REVENGE who won here at Ffos Las on December 15th. He beat the Evan Williams trained Oscar Sunset by a neck that day so I can't understand who Radmores is as big as 20/1 with Bet365, but the Williams horse is as short as 6/1. Oscar Sunset has gone on to win at Taunton since, so the form has been franked and although it was probably a bit of a surprise that Radmores beat him that day, I think he looks too big a price to ignore. He is a 12 year old now, so obviously comes with risks attached as he is also an infrequent winner, but he battled on well here the last day and the step up in trip is likely to suit.
Silsol has the burden of 11-10 on his back tomorrow, being top wight, but Jack Sherwood takes off a valuable 7 pounds for the Paul Nicholls team. This horse was not at his best when 5th of 7 behind Rock On Ruby at Cheltenham on New Year's Day, but that was a very good race and this should be a bit easier. Prior to that run, he had been extremely consistent, not out of the first two for his seven previous runs. Jack has won on him twice already and he won a very good Newbury handicap back in November so if he comes here and gives his best he looks a cracking each-way bet at around the 8/1 mark. The only worry is that weight might just catch him out in the closing stages.
Rebecca Curtis has a brilliant 25% strike rate at her local track which is Ffos Las and it has to be interesting that she has acquired the very talented Paul Townend to ride Foryourinformation here. The 6 year old out of Kayf Tara has won both of his starts at Ffos Las, and when last seen Tony McCoy steered the horse to a neck victory over April Dusk. That was a rather poor race though so the horse will have to improve a good deal, but he is off a fair mark and is lightly raced. I have had a small each-way investment on the in-form Sophie Leech horse, Radmores Revenge, who is now a 12 year old which is far from a positive, but he battled on well here last time out to win and Killian Moore takes off a handy 3 pounds.
Radmores Revenge - 1 Point each-way @ 20/1 Bet3650 -
No time for a write up but Ned Stark i think is going to be a good horse. He paid the price for trying to follow Ptit Zig last time out. I fancy him for whatever handicap he goes for in Cheltenham.
Goes tomorrow forecast price is 11/2 so hopefully can get a decent price.0 -
No time for a write up but Ned Stark i think is going to be a good horse. He paid the price for trying to follow Ptit Zig last time out. I fancy him for whatever handicap he goes for in Cheltenham.
Goes tomorrow forecast price is 11/2 so hopefully can get a decent price.
Totally agree, looks very smart, was going to row in heavy last time but he was withdrawn.0 -
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Lorenzo do you write for an online tipping site?, because if you don't then you or the site is copying and pasting the tips you put up in this thread.
As you can see here http://ymlp.com/zD6Orl0 -
Yes, I write for PuntersLounge, and I share them on here. I am not spamming in any way, shape or form.
Is that ok Inspector?0 -
A few do it on here I visit a variety of tipping sites each Saturday morning and very often I have a deja vu experience. Well I go back through my browsing history and sure enough the same advice and stake to the letter.
Some people must think a lot of us on here were born yesterday.0 -
My apologies Lorenzo.0
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salfordseven wrote: »My apologies Lorenzo.
My name is Adrian Wall.
I write for PuntersLounge, and i just like to share my stuff on here with no other intentions other than the fact I like the place, I am Irish, and I like the forum.0 -
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No time for a write up but Ned Stark i think is going to be a good horse. He paid the price for trying to follow Ptit Zig last time out. I fancy him for whatever handicap he goes for in Cheltenham.
Goes tomorrow forecast price is 11/2 so hopefully can get a decent price.
Had a few bottles last night and forgot the 5/1. Lashed 11/4 before the off to get me back level but still sickened.
I really like the horse he showed a great attitude he will get my money whatever handicap he enters in Cheltenham.0 -
Good call on Ned Stark Nuts. Looked a winner a long way from home.0
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Leopardstown 3:50 - Hennessy Gold Cup(Grade 1) 3m
Jim Culloty will be looking for a step forward from LORD WINDERMERE in the build up to the Cheltenham Gold Cup and this looks exactly the kind of race that he should be up to taking en route to the big day. The 9 year old caused a surprise to some when landing the Gold Cup last year at 20/1. Although he has shown nowhere near his best in his two runs this season, there is no doubt he is a spring horse so improvement is imminent. He was 3rd behind Don Cossack in the John Durkan on seasonal reappearance which turns out to be quite decent form as the Gigginstown horse looks a sublime horse this season. I have no doubt Lord Windermere's main target will be the Gold Cup but this doesn't look a very difficult race for him.
Lord Windermere will be looking for a third successive win at the Festival this year, as he also won the RSA Chase in 2013. Connections fancied the horse to run a big race in the Lexus at Christmas but he could only manage a 7th place finish behind the winner Road To Riches who has looked top notch this season. Davy Russell is adamant that run was just a blip and given the horses' hold up nature, things do have to drop right for him. I think the 7/1 on offer with 888Sport is a very good price and hopefully he can land this before heading off to Cheltenham. I am expecting a good clip up front with On His Own and Home Farm likely to set the pace so it could set it up for Lord Windermere nicely.
Willie Mullins has two runners in the race at the moment in Boston Bob and On His Own and to be honest, Boston Bob has been rather disappointing this season. Of the two, I would fancy On His Own to perform the best as he was eye-catching when 2nd behind Road To Riches in the Lexus, and afterall he did finish 2nd in last years' Gold Cup. Carlingford Lough is a possible improver for JP McManus and Foxrock should find this too tough jumping out of handicap company. You can rule out the rest, so at the prices, Lord Windermere really appeals to me as the value in the race. It depends how hard they will be trying but the nature of the race should set it up for a finisher.
Lord Windermere - 2 Points WIN @ 7/1 888Sport0 -
Sunday 8th February Flogas Novice Chase
It's a rematch from their meeting earlier in the season for the top two in the betting Valseur Lido and Apache Stronghold. In their previous meeting Valseur came out on top by 8 lengths.
What was obvious from that day was Apache didn't like going left handed around Leopardstown. He jumped out to the right the whole way losing lengths and jumping poorly. He was still swinging on the bit two out before he ran out of gas after his poor jumping.
Next time out he was very much at home going right handed at Fairyhouse where he chased home Don Poli. In a top class field he jumped and travelled like the best horse in the race. With the two well clear he just got outstayed by a top class 3miler.
The weekend back over 2m4f and going right handed i fully expect him to reverse the form with Valseur Lido. From here he can go on to better things and win the JLT this year. I will be backing him for the JLT before he shortens if he wins well Sunday.
3pts win Apache Stronghold 9/20 -
Newbury 3:35 - Betfair Hurdle(HANDICAP) (Grade 3) (1) 2m 110yds
John Quinn won this prestigious handicap back in 2011 with Recession Proof and he has two horses running for him in this weekend's Betfair Hurdle. Of the two, I think FORCED FAMILY FUN is a very big price at 40/1 with Bet365 who are offering 5 Places. Recession Proof was rated 134 when he won this race, and Forced Family Fun has to same rating, and John Quinn is pretty optimistic about this horses' chances even if the price says otherwise. This horse runs over both jumps and on the flat but he showed a really good turn of foot to win a Class 3 handicap at Wetherby back in November. He was given a spin on the flat at Southwell in January, a prep for this I would imagine and comes here with a live chance off a low weight.
The other horse that really interested me and I was very close to backing him, is the Harry Fry trained Activial who will be partnered by Noel Fehily. This lightly raced 5 year old hosed up in a Grade 2 at Kempton this time last year but could not follow up when 8th behind Guitar Pete in a Grade 1 at Aintree in April. He travelled powerfully into the race in the Ladbroke Hurdle at Ascot when last seen in December and he is bound to come on a good deal for that run. Harry Fry has had 8 winners from his 17 runners he sent to Newbury and that is an amazing 47% strike-rate at the track so far. Fehily is a terrific jockey, especially on the big day, and at around 7/1 you could do worse bets.
The lightly raced Paul Nicholls 5 year old, Calipto, heads the market for the most prestigious handicap in Europe at around the 11/2 mark. The French import beat Activial on UK debut at Newbury at the end of 2013 and went on to finish 4th in the Triumph at Cheltenham behind Tiger Roll. He again ran a quality race when 3rd behind Guitar Pete at Aintree. He was beat by Tiger Roll again after a break at Cheltenham in October and should strip fitter for this but I don't like his price. I have had a small each-way on Forced Family Fun of the Quinn yard, a trainer who knows how to win this race. The horse has a very similar profile to his 2011 Betfair Hurdle winner Recession Proof.
Forced Family Fun - 1 Point each-way @ 40/1 Bet365 - 5 Places0 -
Newbury 2:25 - Betfair Denman Chase(Grade 2) (1) 3m
Although HARRY TOPPER would prefer the ground to be heavy, conditions should be no problem for Kim Bailey's warrior who is looking to win this race two years on the trot. Newbury really suits this horse, as it is a big galloping track and this horse won his novices chase on good to soft here at Newbury in the past. Last year he was breath-taking, beating Al Ferof by 25 lengths and if he can come here in that sort of form, he will take a bit of beating. He was pulled up on his first run of the season at Haydock, in a race that Silviniaco Conti went on to win. Kim Bailey should have him in much better shape now and the horse has won two of his three races run in the month of February.
Houblon Des Obeaux is one of the deserved market leaders after some very solid runs in recent outings. The Venetia Williams trained 8 year old just found Many Clouds too good in the Hennessy Gold Cup back in November and again ran a very good race behind The Young Master last time out at Ascot. The form of the run behind Many Clouds has worked out particularly well as he went on to follow up in the Betbright Cup and now looks a leading contender for the Cheltenham Gold Cup. Venetia has a great record with her staying chasers in recent years and this horse looks much improved. I am not too fond of the price-tag of 7/2 though which has turned me off backing him.
Unioniste I thought would have a big chance this weekend after bolting up by 10 lengths at Sandown last time out. There was a big gamble on the horse that day, so it was expected and there are rumours connections are very interested in the Grand National. I'm not sure how strong that race was last time out, and he will have to repeat that run to have any chance against much better opposition, but it was a big step in the right direction. Coneygree is another big improver after routing the field last time out but I will stick to Harry Topper who normally comes good this time of year. He also loves it here at Newbury, won this race last year by 25 lengths and if on song looks a big price at 8/1.
Harry Topper - 2 Points WIN @ 8/1 Boylesports0 -
Sunday 8th February Flogas Novice Chase
It's a rematch from their meeting earlier in the season for the top two in the betting Valseur Lido and Apache Stronghold. In their previous meeting Valseur came out on top by 8 lengths.
What was obvious from that day was Apache didn't like going left handed around Leopardstown. He jumped out to the right the whole way losing lengths and jumping poorly. He was still swinging on the bit two out before he ran out of gas after his poor jumping.
Next time out he was very much at home going right handed at Fairyhouse where he chased home Don Poli. In a top class field he jumped and travelled like the best horse in the race. With the two well clear he just got outstayed by a top class 3miler.
The weekend back over 2m4f and going right handed i fully expect him to reverse the form with Valseur Lido. From here he can go on to better things and win the JLT this year. I will be backing him for the JLT before he shortens if he wins well Sunday.
3pts win Apache Stronghold 9/2
Delighted with that considering him jumping was not at it's best today that's some performance as short as 6/1 now for JLT.0
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