The Tiger Woods Thread

HighLine

Thought at the time that Tiger should have went with something more off the tee. That said, Reed went with driver and look what happened him.

https://twitter.com/chambleebrandel/status/973230643139158016

First Up

ThunderCat wrote: »

Wombatman wrote: »

No water down the right.

He got Par all four days with iron off the tee. Needs a bird. That formula is not working.

Most people played iron off the tee on 18th all week because they weren't in a match play situation at that point and were happy with par. Tiger was in round 4.

His combined %'s for birdie (FH, GIR, Putt make %) are better with driver.

He hit 7 Iron in from the middle of the fairway on 18. It's not like he had to hit another 2 Iron in or something.

Hitting a 2 iron or rescue off the tee for strategic reasons is absolutely fine. Doing so because you can't trust your driver is another matter. Lets wait and watch what happens as different situations play out.

Russman

HighLine wrote: »

That said, Reed went with driver and look what happened him.

To be fair, it was hardly because of his tee shot that Reed messed up.

I can see how TW was playing the percentages, and maybe he felt it was the best way for him to make the birdie, but I think long term, purely IMO, he'll struggle against good fields if he has to be that defensive on a few holes in a given round. A bit like when Rory won at Kiawah in the high winds (can't remember if it was R3 or R4), when Tiger at the time was only able to hit a cut off the tee, whereas Rory was able to hit draws through the wind a little better.

HighLine

Russman wrote: »

To be fair, it was hardly because of his tee shot that Reed messed up.

Fair point but when you think about that pin position, maybe going at it with a wedge wasn't the best play. Not much room past to pin to allow for the inevitable spin you would get with a wedge whereas you obviously wouldn't get spin with a longer iron.

Russman

HighLine wrote: »

Fair point but when you think about that pin position, maybe going at it with a wedge wasn't the best play. Not much room past to pin to allow for the inevitable spin you would get with a wedge whereas you obviously wouldn't get spin with a longer iron.

True enough. I suppose its all too easy for us to be the hurlers on the ditch and second guess one of the best players of all time.
Although I think if you'd offered TW a shot from 135, or a shot from 185 at that pin, he's taking 135 all day long !:D

RoadRunner

Russman wrote: »

if you'd offered TW a shot from 135, or a shot from 185 at that pin, he's taking 135 all day long !:D

He had confidence in his 2i and then his mid-iron in. That it didn't produce the birdy that was needed does not mean he made the wrong decision.

The potential second shot from 135y had a 6 in 10 chance of missing the fairway based on the stats of the rest of the field.

Forcing these type of hard decisions on the longest players in the game is in my opinion good. Some of this kind of stuff was discussed in the ball goes too far thread where some said this is exactly what pro golf needs. It's difficult to watch criticisms stack up on one the top players and biggest hitters when they make one single decision where they decide the best play for them is the precision one versus power blasting.

First Up

RoadRunner wrote: »

He had confidence in his 2i and then his mid-iron in. That it didn't produce the birdy that was needed does not mean he made the wrong decision.

The potential second shot from 135y had a 6 in 10 chance of missing the fairway based on the stats of the rest of the field.

Forcing these type of hard decisions on the longest players in the game is in my opinion good. Some of this kind of stuff was discussed in the ball goes too far thread where some said this is exactly what pro golf needs. It's difficult to watch criticisms stack up on one the top players and biggest hitters when they make one single decision where they decide the best play for them is the precision one versus power blasting.

We can argue the merits of how he chose to play the 18th ad nauseam but surely nobody is denying that he is hitting irons off some tees only because he doesn't trust his driver. That is costing him distance; maybe his long iron approaches will be good enough to compensate but its a big ask in a game of fine margins. It is also likely to take some par 5s outside of two shot range.

On the evidence of the last two weeks, he is certainly able to compete and presumably (health permitting) he will get better. How far that takes him will be interesting to see but I think Jack's 18 majors is safe.

RoadRunner

First Up wrote: »

I think Jack's 18 majors is safe.

I don't

Wombatman

RoadRunner wrote: »

He had confidence in his 2i and then his mid-iron in. That it didn't produce the birdy that was needed does not mean he made the wrong decision.

The potential second shot from 135y had a 6 in 10 chance of missing the fairway based on the stats of the rest of the field.

Conversely he has a 40% chance of putting himself in a much better position to win using the driver.

If someone offers you 4/1 odds to flip a coin twice and get heads twice, it is the wrong decision not to take the bet irrespective of the outcome. You will lose more often than win, but when you win, you win big.

Russman

First Up wrote: »

I think Jack's 18 majors is safe.

I think if Jack only had 15 it would still be safe !!:D

RoadRunner

Russman wrote: »

I think if Jack only had 15 it would still be safe !!:D

Just to remind you had his putt on the 72th green dropped he was in a playoff for the win against the best on earth. This was, like, his debut +1?

Look, I think your argument is that moving forwards T.W. is in trouble because he was forced to play conservatively because his driver can be wild and this cost him the win. That's cool and all and I hear you. But it's not like he struggled his way around behind everyone else, a disheveled shell of a man without hope. He placed 2nd. Playing to his strengths he showed maturity. He's in bookies joint 2nd favorite position just behind DJ and level with Speith for literally the next major on the calendar.

GreeBo

Wombatman wrote: »

Conversely he has a 40% chance of putting himself in a much better position to win using the driver.

Which is a 60% change of taking himself out of it by missing the fairway.

I'd fancy Tiger for an up and down with a 7 iron from the fairway more times than with less club but from the rough/trees.

The hole averaged over par (4.12) with only 9% birdies, so odds were against him no matter what he did.

He was right IMO, to give himself a chance at a birdie putt rather than take himself out of it with a wayward drive.

CalamariFritti

Guys, it took him 4 tournaments and one missed cut to get back to the top end. Nearly won, just couldn't get anything going on the last day. That happens

If I didn't want him to win another major or another tournament even I wouldn't feel so confident right now.

I can't believe this is happening. He's actually back! :eek:

Russman

RoadRunner wrote: »

Just to remind you had his putt on the 72th green dropped he was in a playoff for the win against the best on earth. This was, like, his debut +1?

Look, I think your argument is that moving forwards T.W. is in trouble because he was forced to play conservatively because his driver can be wild and this cost him the win. That's cool and all and I hear you. But it's not like he struggled his way around behind everyone else, a disheveled shell of a man without hope. He placed 2nd. Playing to his strengths he showed maturity. He's in bookies joint 2nd favorite position just behind DJ and level with Speith for literally the next major on the calendar.

Agreed.
It's not even so much that I think he'll be in trouble because of the driver in the future. Look, obviously I was half joking about 15 majors being safe. Do I think he'll win regular tournaments again ? Absolutely, I can easily see him add another few to his total over the next number of years. Do I think he'll win another major ? Not sure, maybe. I guess he might pick up a Masters as the field is small and the number who can realistically win it is very small and experience is so important around Augusta. Maybe a bad weather Open too. Do I think he'll get Jack's major record ? No, I don't think so.
I just think that there's too many really good top players around now who hit it further, straighter and putt as good, and importantly weren't around in TW's heyday so aren't intimidated like Vijay, Ernie, Phil etc often were. I suspect he needs too many players to have an off week in a major nowadays that I just don't see him getting another 5. A bit like why Fowler won't ever get one.

Could I be wrong ? 100%. It's all opinion and time will tell. He could win the grand slam for all we know.
I think there's even an argument to be made that coming back from the surgery he had and finishing 2nd in a tour event is one of his greatest accomplishments.

zuutroy

It's like an embarrassment of riches that he's playing again in less than 48 hours.

ForeRight

He didn't want to win that's why he layed back and he will drop the hands again this week to allow the first win to be the Masters

stockdam

Wombatman wrote: »

RoadRunner wrote: »

He had confidence in his 2i and then his mid-iron in. That it didn't produce the birdy that was needed does not mean he made the wrong decision.

The potential second shot from 135y had a 6 in 10 chance of missing the fairway based on the stats of the rest of the field.

Conversely he has a 40% chance of putting himself in a much better position to win using the driver.

If someone offers you 4/1 odds to flip a coin twice and get heads twice, it is the wrong decision not to take the bet irrespective of the outcome. You will lose more often than win, but when you win, you win big.

The gains associated with winning far outweigh messing up and coming third. However he got himself into contention so he is entitled to play it the way he feels most confident.

stockdam

ForeRight wrote: »

He didn't want to win that's why he layed back and he will drop the hands again this week to allow the first win to be the Masters

I guess that you are being sarcastic.
Woods did much better than I or probably most others would have predicted. Time will tell whether this was a one-off or if he can compete long-term.
The problem that I have when Woods is playing is the amount of time he usually gets on TV. Even finishing 2nd he got more articles written about him than  Casey who won.
I also tend to dislike a lot of his followers. I posted on a forum that there were other players playing and then got called all the names of the day. It's as if you are an idiot not liking him. I don't dislike the guy and as much as I like watching him when he's playing well, I also like watching other players.
He's done very well to get himself back into form and I'm sure he'll contend again. His putt on 17 was remarkable as it was a very hard putt.

slave1

A lot of pros getting asked about Tiger being back, is it good for the game, will he win again, will he win a major. None missed a heartbeat replying to the last one.
He will win at least one more major and once that first new one is won more will follow.
He the man...

Wombatman

slave1 wrote: »

A lot of pros getting asked about Tiger being back, is it good for the game, will he win again, will he win a major. None missed a heartbeat replying to the last one.
He will win at least one more major and once that first new one is won more will follow.
He the man...

Playing the way he played last week he is likely to win again.

It's all down to how his body holds up though. One swing could spell the end considering all the repair work he has been through. Very few high profile pros have this hanging over them.

I know his club head speed is off the charts but does anybody else think some of his movements are a little stiff looking? Like when he pick up a tee. He keeps his legs straight, then bends over at the waist 90 degrees. Looks so odd.

I'm surprised he is playing as much as he is. I would have said maybe once a month with plenty of recovery time would have been pushing it.

HighLine

Good press conference with Tiger a short while ago below. Addresses the 2 iron on 18 again towards the end.

https://www.pscp.tv/w/1ynJOAraByrKR

CalamariFritti

HighLine wrote: »

Good press conference with Tiger a short while ago below. Addresses the 2 iron on 18 again towards the end.

https://www.pscp.tv/w/1ynJOAraByrKR

Nice breakfast entertainment. Very good questions in it.
He must have really been rock bottom and truly thinking I never gonna play again. You can see that between all the hype about his play getting healthy is the biggest thing of all for him.

What I found interesting also was what he called our misconception about his back condition. That it never was that flat out driver swing that was killing him but chipping and putting. And the hours and hours required of being bent over practicing it.

Wombatman

For the stats deniers.

"Did Tiger Woods screw up by hitting iron off the tee at the 72nd hole?"

http://www.golfwrx.com/501294/did-tiger-woods-screw-up-by-hitting-iron-off-the-tee-at-the-72nd-hole/

bren2001

Wombatman wrote: »

Tiger on 18th

Tee Driver
FH 30% - Iron to within 20ft 50% = 15%
FM 70% - Iron to within 20ft 5% = 3.5%

So 18.5% chance of sticking it within 20ft

Tee Iron
FH 85% - Iron to within 20ft 15% = 12.75%
FM 15% - Iron to within 20ft 2% = .3%

So 13% chance of sticking it within 20ft

Go with the driver Tiger on these numbers.

Wombatman wrote: »

For the stats deniers.

"Did Tiger Woods screw up by hitting iron off the tee at the 72nd hole?"

http://www.golfwrx.com/501294/did-tiger-woods-screw-up-by-hitting-iron-off-the-tee-at-the-72nd-hole/

I don't think anyone is denying the stats but throwing down random numbers doesn't really do much. Its clear what your point is and other people have differing views. You're point is effectively: (I agree with this approach)

For the first 3 rounds, par on 18 was a good score. Taking the 2-iron off the tee means he was more likely to find the fairway, more likely to hit the green and thus leave himself a long 2 putt for par. A bogey-avoidance strategy and correct on days 1-3.

When needing a birdie, you have to "go for it". It doesnt matter if you get bogey, double etc. Anything worse than a birdie means he loses the tournament i.e. he has to stick it as close to the pin with his second shot. In this case, the strategy would typically be "best case scenario", where you chose the club that gives you the greatest chance of making a birdie. If he htis the fairway with his driver, he greatly improves his chances of getting the birdie. This should have been his play.

i.e. you play the percentages the first 3 days but you can't when its your last hole.

WHIP IT!

Random question, but is there any chance anyone knows what the PGA Tour test for when they test players and how often players get tested?

Russman

WHIP IT! wrote: »

Random question, but is there any chance anyone knows what the PGA Tour test for when they test players and how often players get tested?

http://www.golfchannel.com/article/rex-hoggard/new-era-pga-tour-drug-testing-begins-safeway/

Doesn't really go into the specfics you've asked but interesting all the same.

GreeBo

Wombatman wrote: »

For the stats deniers.

"Did Tiger Woods screw up by hitting iron off the tee at the 72nd hole?"

http://www.golfwrx.com/501294/did-tiger-woods-screw-up-by-hitting-iron-off-the-tee-at-the-72nd-hole/

18th was the hardest hole on the course on Sunday, 3 times as many over par as under it. (7 birdies, 21 bogeys or worse)

The drive doesnt suit him, he freely admits this.

You can hole a birdie putt from anywhere, unless of course you dont make the green in 2 because your drive is behind a tree, buried in a bunker or somewhere off the planet. Or maybe just even in the rough.

If he had hit driver and bailed it the stats would show that he was wrong to hit driver as he hasnt been hitting it well and already had trouble finding this particular fairway with an iron. It would be "obvious" that it was the wrong choice as he wouldnt have even given himself a putt at the win.

His best chance of making a putt was hitting it close to the pin.
His best chance of hitting it close to the pin was if he played from the fariway.
His best chance of hitting the fairway was if he followed the strategy he had been using all week.

Taking isolated individual shot stats is no good, you have to take all the shots into consideration since you arent allowed to parachute the ball onto the green 8ft from the pin, you gotta get it there from the tee.

Stats are useful after the fact, but dont tell you squat about how the player was feeling or what they were comfortable with.

Bottom line; I'll take the course management of Tiger Woods over pretty much anybody else on the planet, certainly over a statistician.

lowelife

Took him 5 events to win as a pro, could that be the magic number again? :cool:

slave1

Little reminder, the US have already had their daylight adjustment so for those with access the coverage starts from 6pm today instead of the usual 7pm

PokeHerKing

Featured group on all day also. Wall to wall Tiger just like last week. For those who "work"...