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The Tiger Woods Thread

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    #2132
    GreeBo
    Registered Users Posts: 27,163 ✭✭✭✭GreeBo


    Deleted User wrote: »
    150 of the worlds best players would be harder yes his % chance to win would reduce. There is a point where the number of players added wouldnt reduce any further but it sure aint 30

    Wouldnt the FedEx cup rankings going into the Tour Championship show that that is not actually the case?
    Poulter at 50th was over 4 thousand points beyond Bryson before the reset, to me at least, that shows that these guys are not contending on a regular basis so are unlikely to contend in the last event of the year.
    Sure there can be an odd fluke, but if you are relying on a fluke by someone who has played poorly all year then I think that almost proves the point.


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    #2133
    First Up
    Registered Users Posts: 14,822 ✭✭✭✭First Up


    GreeBo wrote: »
    Wouldnt the FedEx cup rankings going into the Tour Championship show that that is not actually the case?
    Poulter at 50th was over 4 thousand points beyond Bryson before the reset, to me at least, that shows that these guys are not contending on a regular basis so are unlikely to contend in the last event of the year.
    Sure there can be an odd fluke, but if you are relying on a fluke by someone who has played poorly all year then I think that almost proves the point.

    Was Woods coming from 80th to win it one of the odd flukes?


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    #2134
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    GreeBo wrote: »
    Wouldnt the FedEx cup rankings going into the Tour Championship show that that is not actually the case?
    Poulter at 50th was over 4 thousand points beyond Bryson before the reset, to me at least, that shows that these guys are not contending on a regular basis so are unlikely to contend in the last event of the year.
    Sure there can be an odd fluke, but if you are relying on a fluke by someone who has played poorly all year then I think that almost proves the point.

    Your way off on this on any given weekend any top pro can turn up and have a great week it happens regularly the more who show up the higher the chance of it happening and the less chance of 1 chosen individual to be the winner.

    And the 30 left arent the best or most in form golfers kizzire made the last 30 and he hasnt done anything of note since before xmas.

    There is no way you can convince me its harder to beat 30 pros then it is to be 150 pros and id be surprised if you really believed that


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    #2135
    downthemiddle
    Registered Users Posts: 3,036 ✭✭✭downthemiddle


    GreeBo wrote: »
    The 29 best current players are whats hard to beat, not the next 100 or so who rarely contend or win.

    Do you think it would be significantly harder to win a tournament if there were 1000 players in it?

    I don't, because the more players you add, the worse they are.
    To clarify, are you saying it is more difficult to win an event with 30 entrants that one with a 1000?


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    #2136
    HighLine
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,378 ✭✭✭HighLine


    https://twitter.com/PhilMickelson/status/1044618306575974401


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    #2137
    Niles Crane
    Closed Accounts Posts: 537 ✭✭✭Niles Crane


    GreeBo wrote: »
    The 29 best current players are whats hard to beat, not the next 100 or so who rarely contend or win.

    Do you think it would be significantly harder to win a tournament if there were 1000 players in it?

    I don't, because the more players you add, the worse they are.

    It would be more difficult, that is inarguable. One of those 970 other players could have a great week and shoot the lights out.

    I'm pretty sure the betting odds on the top 30 players were shorter this week than they would have been in the PGA championship.


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    #2138
    zuutroy
    Registered Users Posts: 6,854 ✭✭✭zuutroy


    It's simple. He was 12/1 to win the TC, and he was about 24/1 to win his last full field tournament so the bookies reckon his chances to win based on this reduced field (and his decent form since the last full field event) that his chance to win doubled.


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    #2139
    First Up
    Registered Users Posts: 14,822 ✭✭✭✭First Up


    zuutroy wrote:
    It's simple. He was 12/1 to win the TC, and he was about 24/1 to win his last full field tournament so the bookies reckon his chances to win based on this reduced field (and his decent form since the last full field event) that his chance to win doubled.


    Yes, bookies can do the sums.


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    #2140
    CalamariFritti
    Registered Users Posts: 5,631 ✭✭✭CalamariFritti


    I'm no expert but I understand while there will be a base price on a player based on who he is ultimately the odds are determined by the money that goes onto a player?

    In any case I know sheer numbers do play a role but I'd struggle to call the tour championship consisting of the best 30 players of the season a weakened field, even if I wasnt a Tiger fan.


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    #2141
    ForeRight
    Registered Users Posts: 3,695 ✭✭✭ForeRight


    Ok so let me get this straight....

    Tiger won’t be back until he wins the Valspar or the Farmers.....

    Gotcha


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    #2142
    CalamariFritti
    Registered Users Posts: 5,631 ✭✭✭CalamariFritti


    ForeRight wrote: »
    Ok so let me get this straight....

    Tiger won’t be back until he wins the Valspar or the Farmers.....

    Gotcha

    ...but he could he do it on a wet windy Sunday morning in Tramore?

    ;)


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    #2143
    Niles Crane
    Closed Accounts Posts: 537 ✭✭✭Niles Crane


    ForeRight wrote: »
    Ok so let me get this straight....

    Tiger won’t be back until he wins the Valspar or the Farmers.....

    Gotcha


    I would think most people would say he won't be back fully until he wins a major.

    He's based his entire career around winning them and they are really the only events that every single participant is 100% motivated to win.

    He's won 15 times since his last major win so I think most people thought he would win a PGA tour event at some stage.


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    #2144
    valoren
    Registered Users Posts: 5,481 ✭✭✭valoren


    He holds the all time record for wins. Some of Snead's verified victories were in very limited fields and 36 hole tournies.

    https://www.golfdigest.com/story/forget-sam-snead-tiger-woods-already-has-the-tour-record-for-wins-seriously


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    #2145
    downthemiddle
    Registered Users Posts: 3,036 ✭✭✭downthemiddle


    valoren wrote: »
    He holds the all time record for wins. Some of Snead's verified victories were in very limited fields and 36 hole tournies.

    https://www.golfdigest.com/story/forget-sam-snead-tiger-woods-already-has-the-tour-record-for-wins-seriously

    At a time when they played far fewer events.


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    #2146
    Kauto
    Registered Users Posts: 823 ✭✭✭Kauto


    zuutroy wrote: »
    It's simple. He was 12/1 to win the TC, and he was about 24/1 to win his last full field tournament so the bookies reckon his chances to win based on this reduced field (and his decent form since the last full field event) that his chance to win doubled.

    If Tiger teed it up in a major next week, he would be 12/1 or 14/1 max. Playing much better than he was even a few months ago, so that is not accurate.


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    #2147
    prawnsambo
    Registered Users Posts: 13,375 ✭✭✭✭prawnsambo


    Kauto wrote: »
    If Tiger teed it up in a major next week, he would be 12/1 or 14/1 max. Playing much better than he was even a few months ago, so that is not accurate.
    Yeah. But it would be hard to know if that price (or whatever it will be) purely reflects his chances or a combination of that and the amount of money going on him.


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    #2148
    Kauto
    Registered Users Posts: 823 ✭✭✭Kauto


    prawnsambo wrote: »
    Yeah. But it would be hard to know if that price (or whatever it will be) purely reflects his chances or a combination of that and the amount of money going on him.

    It would. Betfair price would be a pure as it would get. Near enough a 100% margin market.

    Greenbo was spot on in what he was saying above. F uck all of the lads who were not playing last week would have had a chance.


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    #2149
    HighLine
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,378 ✭✭✭HighLine


    Honestly find it surprising that after Tiger winning the Tour Championship and completing one of the best sporting comebacks of all time, people on here are bickering about the strength of the field.

    15 months ago he was mumbling his own name to police officers. 12 months ago he could only hit the ball 60 yards. 3 days ago he beat 30 of the world's best golfers after rightfully earning his place over the course of the season to compete at the Tour's grand finale.


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    #2150
    Russman
    Registered Users Posts: 5,885 ✭✭✭Russman


    Kauto wrote: »
    F uck all of the lads who were not playing last week would have had a chance.

    Are you suggesting that players from say, 30-50 on the rankings wouldn't have had a chance to win at East Lake had they teed it up ? The likes of Spieth, Snedeker, Kisner etc. ?
    I'm not arguing that they deserved to be there or anything, clearly they didn't. Nor am I suggesting that Tiger's win is devalued in any way, just that the performance might not be quite the superhuman one that some commentators are going on about. Somebody wins the Tour Championship every year. Yes, its an amazing comeback from injury/surgery, and even as a non-fan I'm genuinely happy he's healthy and able to play, but a bit of perspective.


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    #2151
    Kauto
    Registered Users Posts: 823 ✭✭✭Kauto


    Russman wrote: »
    Are you suggesting that players from say, 30-50 on the rankings wouldn't have had a chance to win at East Lake had they teed it up ? The likes of Spieth, Snedeker, Kisner etc. ?
    I'm not arguing that they deserved to be there or anything, clearly they didn't. Nor am I suggesting that Tiger's win is devalued in any way, just that the performance might not be quite the superhuman one that some commentators are going on about. Somebody wins the Tour Championship every year. Yes, its an amazing comeback from injury/surgery, and even as a non-fan I'm genuinely happy he's healthy and able to play, but a bit of perspective.

    Of course they would have had a chance but a guy was quoting odds earlier in thread and i replied that Tiger wouldn't be more than 14-16/1 for a major if he teed it up now. IMO, he had the tournament won after 1 hole of the final round and won pulling up


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    #2152
    Russman
    Registered Users Posts: 5,885 ✭✭✭Russman


    Kauto wrote: »
    Of course they would have had a chance but a guy was quoting odds earlier in thread and i replied that Tiger wouldn't be more than 14-16/1 for a major if he teed it up now. IMO, he had the tournament won after 1 hole of the final round and won pulling up

    Agree with this alright. He'll probably go off 2nd or 3rd favourite for the Masters (maybe even outright favourite if he wins in Bay Hill and/or Torrey).
    Yes, it was definitely a done deal after the 1st hole of round 4, it was probably a done deal after he hit his 2nd shot on the first.


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    #2153
    GreeBo
    Registered Users Posts: 27,163 ✭✭✭✭GreeBo


    downthemiddle wrote: »
    To clarify, are you saying it is more difficult to win an event with 30 entrants that one with a 1000?
    Deleted User wrote: »
    There is no way you can convince me its harder to beat 30 pros then it is to be 150 pros and id be surprised if you really believed that

    I'm not trying to convince of you that. I'm saying that i dont believe its significantly harder to win an event with the top 100 vs the top 30.

    Deleted User wrote: »
    Your way off on this on any given weekend any top pro can turn up and have a great week it happens regularly the more who show up the higher the chance of it happening and the less chance of 1 chosen individual to be the winner.

    And the 30 left arent the best or most in form golfers kizzire made the last 30 and he hasnt done anything of note since before xmas.
    As I already said, the top 30 are the top 30 because they were pretty much the most consistent players or contended the most all year.

    Spieth (as an example) would have made it if he had played better all year, he didnt.
    So the chances of him turning his season around in one event are pretty slim.

    If Kizzire is so rubbish why didnt Spieth or any of the others pass him out? They had since Christmas to do it.


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    #2154
    Russman
    Registered Users Posts: 5,885 ✭✭✭Russman


    GreeBo wrote: »
    I'm not trying to convince of you that. I'm saying that i dont believe its significantly harder to win an event with the top 100 vs the top 30.



    As I already said, the top 30 are the top 30 because they were pretty much the most consistent players or contended the most all year.

    Spieth (as an example) would have made it if he had played better all year, he didnt.
    So the chances of him turning his season around in one event are pretty slim.

    If Kizzire is so rubbish why didnt Spieth or any of the others pass him out? They had since Christmas to do it.

    Its all relative though Greebo. At that highest level of golf, pretty much anyone in the field can win any time. Yes, the top 30 have been the most consistent (although maybe someone just had a couple of hot weeks and wasn't consistent at all), but they're not necessarily any more likely to win a given event than the 40th player.

    Why are the chances of a player outside the top 30 (eg Spieth) turning things around in one event pretty slim ? That makes no sense. He's capable of winning any time he tees it up. Most of these players are only the smallest thing away from good form, be it a "feel" on the range, a change of attitude etc.


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    #2155
    GreeBo
    Registered Users Posts: 27,163 ✭✭✭✭GreeBo


    Russman wrote: »
    Most of these players are only the smallest thing away from good form, be it a "feel" on the range, a change of attitude etc.

    Well he had all year to find that feel and couldnt manage it, in fact everyone outside the top 30 did. So I think its unlikely that they were going to magically find it on the last tournament AND contend AND beat Tiger.


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    #2156
    downthemiddle
    Registered Users Posts: 3,036 ✭✭✭downthemiddle


    GreeBo wrote: »
    Well he had all year to find that feel and couldnt manage it, in fact everyone outside the top 30 did. So I think its unlikely that they were going to magically find it on the last tournament AND contend AND beat Tiger.

    And Tiger also had all year to find that feel and didn't magically manage to find it until the final tournament.

    People study logic, statistics and probability for a reason.


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    #2157
    GreeBo
    Registered Users Posts: 27,163 ✭✭✭✭GreeBo


    downthemiddle wrote: »
    And Tiger also had all year to find that feel and didn't magically manage to find it until the final tournament.

    People study logic, statistics and probability for a reason.

    The guy who went from 668th after the Hero to 13th after the Tour Championship didnt find it until the final tournament? :rolleyes:


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    #2158
    kiers47
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,564 ✭✭✭kiers47


    Kauto wrote: »
    It would. Betfair price would be a pure as it would get. Near enough a 100% margin market.

    Greenbo was spot on in what he was saying above. F uck all of the lads who were not playing last week would have had a chance.

    Ill try not to derail this with betting speak as i know its frowned upon but it is going to be equally a probability related post to betting.. But a quick point.
    While i do agree largely with what you are saying in relation to betfair. There is a huge amount of volatility in betting on golf. So while there is a collective view of the wisdom of crowds that basically come together with back and forth to bash the correct price/probability in to place. In relation to golf and i would even say Tiger in general there are huge discrepancies and variance at play.

    This isnt always born out in the betfair price at the off every week.

    There is also the idea of Tiger being this public figure that people will bet on religiously regardless of the price or chance. Which does quite often create a skew on him and his place in the market.

    I do know of a few punters who just bet tiger every time he tee'd it up back in the late 90's early 2000's and made an absorbent amount of cash and the market never really caught up with the actual likelihood of his chance.

    I do think the opposite has happened this year on the comeback and it is only in the last maybe 2 months where the market and tiger's game met in the middle somewhere to become a more accurate reflection of his chance imo. But there still could be some ambiguity in this and it is possible there could be a lag in the market somewhere. Just some food for thought. These things are never to be trusted 100%.


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    #2159
    Cork Boy 53
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,829 ✭✭✭Cork Boy 53


    Whatever about any more Majors, I would think that Tiger will beat Sam Snead`s record of 82 PGA Tour wins. Snead amassed that total in a 30 year span while Woods is now just two behind over 23 years.


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    #2160
    prawnsambo
    Registered Users Posts: 13,375 ✭✭✭✭prawnsambo


    Cork Boy 53 wrote: »
    Whatever about any more Majors, I would think that Tiger will beat Sam Snead`s record of 82 PGA Tour wins. Snead amassed that total in a 30 year span while Woods is now just two behind over 23 years.
    Yeah. I don't think Tiger has ever faced as many top class golfers in his career as he's facing now. You look at that list and it's hard to find a period in golfing history so stacked with talent: Spieth, Thomas, Koepka, Reed, DJ, Fowler, De Chambeau, McIlroy, Fleetwood, Rose...


    I'm leaving out loads like Molinari, Rahm, Garcia and others who have the capability to win at any time.


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    #2161
    GreeBo
    Registered Users Posts: 27,163 ✭✭✭✭GreeBo


    Cork Boy 53 wrote: »
    Whatever about any more Majors, I would think that Tiger will beat Sam Snead`s record of 82 PGA Tour wins. Snead amassed that total in a 30 year span while Woods is now just two behind over 23 years.

    Even though he was under no pressure on this win, I think it could be what he needed to remind himself of what he can do.

    He gave up a couple of chances of wins (Majors!) earlier this year that he never would have done before...hopefully this win sees the end of that sort of carry on!


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