Premier League Relegation Thread

Paully D

We had one of these last year which was quite good (especially with Sunderland's great escape run ) so I thought I'd set one up again for this year. Here's last year's thread if anyone wants to have a look back.

Anyway, with 14/15 games to go, the table looks like the below:



Bookmakers odds shape up as follows:



A bit of news coming out of QPR after yesterdays defeat to Southampton is that top scorer Charlie Austin left Loftus Road on crutches with a suspected broken foot which would be huge to the relegation battle.

Harvey Low Fat Milk

Leicester

QPR are awful and have been terribly managed for a long time so can't see them getting out of it, particularly without Austin.

Leicester just don't seem to have the quality to stay up.

Burnley have awful fixtures over the next three months. They have Pulis' WBA, Man Utd, Chelsea, Swansea, Liverpool, Man City, Southampton, Spurs, Arsenal and Everton. Can't see them picking up enough points during this period to stay up

machiavellianme

Leicester

It'll likely be QPR, Burnley and Leicester but I wish it was QPR, Everton and Villa. Sick of dropping points against them every year. :pac:

Paully D

Only once in the Premier League era have all 3 promoted teams gone straight back down. It does look increasingly likely to happen again this year though.

Laois_Man

Leicester

It really looks like a damp sqib of a run in to the end of the season in every respect

Chelsea will keep a comfortable buffer between themselves and City (the Costa suspension will probably end up helping them)

I don't think the bottom 3 will change from what it is now - can't see any of them making a run. Hull at least show a bit of fight and ability to pull out results in difficult fixtures

The only possible "excitement" will be the race to the 3rd/4th place trophies and particularly, if Southampton are still up there in 2 months time, how the referee's will suddenly start making loads of "mistakes" in their games to Southampton's disadvantage. I may be cynical, but I'm right! But 6 clubs fighting for 2 places, and if you consider it a possibility that Man City could drop back, 7 clubs fighting for 3 positions. It's the only remotely interesting thing about this season.

Harry Palmr

Leicester

Villa, Hull and QPR are my picks but I could just have easily picked Burnley and Leicester over two of them. I think this season should see 5 go down and 5 come up. The Championship is very good this year.

Skylinehead

Burnley

I haven't seen much from Leicester at all this season, so they'll stay 20th. Steve Bruce is an utter chancer who's time is up, so Hull to go down as well. I picked Villa third for now, they have the squad to stay up ahead of QPR or Burnley but at this rate they're running out of time.

Tactics Tim to keep QPR up with an actual away win.

Guy:Incognito

Villa will throw a run of a couple of wins and a draw together and be 7 or 8 points clear of relegation and everyone will wonder what the fuss was about.

Turtyturd

Hopefully Villa end up in there.

QPR and Leicester in there as well.

Alfred Borden

Leicester

Leicester, QPR and Villa. Burnley arent great but have a very good manager so they should be ok.

Knex*

Leicester

Went with Leicester, QPR, and Hull, but I'm not so certain on the last pick.

Paully D

Burnley blow a big chance to put a further 2 points on the board after blowing a 2-0 lead at home to West Brom.

Their next 9 games: Man Utd (A), Chelsea (A), Swansea (H), Liverpool (A), Man City (H), Southampton (A), Spurs (H), Arsenal (H), Everton (A).

Bounty Hunter

Leicester

West Brom, Sunderland, Aston Villa, Crystal Palace & perhaps even Hull to survive not due to doing particularly well but simply cos Leicester, Burnley & QPR are just that bit sh!tter than them.

That run of fixtures highlighted above for Burnley is dreadful and it being the next 9 is almost even worse cos by the time they get to winnable games those around them will suddenly start picking up points in unlikely places as teams at the bottom tend to during a run in when they are fighting for their lives

Wasn't there something about If / when QPR go down... like does the club implode due to financial rulings / fines etc or something?

COYVB

Leicester

Vote Burnley and QPR, I don't think either will be able to get out of it - particularly Burnley given their up coming fixtures

As for the third, I have no idea. Villa's game with Hull on Tuesday is a massive one, whoever wins there would have to be fancied to pull away from the other, but a draw and it's still up in the air. Villa win puts them 5 clear of Hull with a (relatively) favourable next 5 games. Hull win will most likely destroy all hope in the Villa camp and drop us right in the brown stuff. As a Villa fan, I can't see us staying up if Hull win that game

Guy:Incognito

COYVB wrote: »

Vote Burnley and QPR, I don't think either will be able to get out of it - particularly Burnley given their up coming fixtures

As for the third, I have no idea. Villa's game with Hull on Tuesday is a massive one, whoever wins there would have to be fancied to pull away from the other, but a draw and it's still up in the air. Villa win puts them 5 clear of Hull with a (relatively) favourable next 5 games. Hull win will most likely destroy all hope in the Villa camp and drop us right in the brown stuff. As a Villa fan, I can't see us staying up if Hull win that game

Not a mention of Leicester at all? I find that odd tbh.

Agent Coulson

Leicester

Hull, QPR & Leicester.

COYVB

Leicester

Guy:Incognito wrote: »

Not a mention of Leicester at all? I find that odd tbh.

I think they'll finish outside it tbh

jamesbere

Leicester

Agent Coulson wrote: »

Hull, QPR & Leicester.

Can't argue with that, qpr can't win away from home and are over depending on Austin. Leicester don't have enough quality to mount a good enough fight.

I think hull will push it close but with no cconsistency coming from there striker's it will cost them in key matches

Johner

Pearson has just been sacked.

Paully D

Shaping up to be another ridiculously close battle this year it seems. Sunderland capitulate at home to QPR as they generally do against teams they should be beating, while Hull beat Villa. Burnley go to Old Trafford tomorrow while West Brom entertain Swansea.

retalivity

Villa look shocking and will surely go down if Lambert doesn't go.

COYVB

Leicester

Yup, villa good as gone if Lambert stays

COYVB

Leicester

COYVB wrote: »

Yup, villa good as gone if Lambert stays

There's hope yet!

Paully D

COYVB wrote: »

There's hope yet!

Who comes in? The candidate pool that us bottom half teams generally choose from looks absolutely atrocious. Maybe Villa will surprise and make an ambitious appointment from abroad which more lower ranked Premier League teams should try to do far more often.

COYVB

Leicester

Paully D wrote: »

Who comes in? The candidate pool that us bottom half teams generally choose from looks absolutely atrocious. Maybe Villa will surprise and make an ambitious appointment from abroad which more lower ranked Premier League teams should try to do far more often.

Like I said in the Villa thread, 6 month deal for whoever comes in, then search properly in summer. I'd take Sherwood. I'd take a soggy paper bag TBH

Paully D

COYVB wrote: »

Like I said in the Villa thread, 6 month deal for whoever comes in, then search properly in summer. I'd take Sherwood. I'd take a soggy paper bag TBH

No manager worth his salt is going to take that sort of deal though. You'll stay up anyway.

COYVB

Leicester

Managers have egos. Dangle the carrot, and a lot will bite

Alfred Borden

Leicester

Anyone but Harry!

Harry Palmr

Leicester

I don't want that job! :eek:

dr.kenneth noisewater

Leicester

Cant see Leicester or QPR escaping tbh, its between Hull and Burnley then. I think Sherwood and Pulis will pull WBA and Villa away and Sunderland should be fine as well. Horrible run coming up for Burnley which could bury them

Harry Palmr

Leicester

Joey Barton red carded for violent conduct - three games off. OPR 1-0 down.

Paully D

Villa 1-2 Stoke, Chelsea 1-1 Burnley, Sunderland 0-0 WBA, Palace 1-2 Arsenal and Hull 2-1 QPR. Leicester go to Everton tomorrow.

764dak

It's kind of funny that Leicester has yet to lose by a 3 goal margin.

Sheepy99

Leicester

Strange one that. Win for them tomorrow would make things interesting, and incredibly tight up as far as 12th.

Paully D

Palace and West Brom may think they've just about done enough now after wins today moved both 8 points clear. Sunderland, Burnley, Villa and Hull all lose, but Burnley's loss may prove to be the biggest dagger ahead of their run in.

Paully D

Another gameweek has passed. Villa were the big winners this week as they were the only side in the bottom half to win a game and subsequently jump out of the relegation zone. Hull and Sunderland will probably be looking at their draw as a good result now as they were the only other two sides in that group to avoid defeat and gain a point apiece on their relegation rivals. Leicester, QPR, Burnley, Everton, West Brom and Palace all lost.

The table now looks as follows:



Very difficult to see Leicester getting out of trouble now despite favourable fixtures. Their game in hand is against Chelsea too so unlikely to pull any closer with that one.

One thing I always find of use at this time of year is points per game average. I'm going to ignore Palace and West Brom as 5 points will probably keep them up in all honesty and I feel their out of trouble now. The old adage that 40 points are needed to stay up is long gone as 35, 34 and 34 would have kept teams up over the last 3 seasons, so I'm going to use 35 as the benchmark for survival again this year. It shouldn't be too far off and it's something to review anyway, so I quickly calculated the below:



Of course it doesn't take into account things like the fixture list, refereeing decisions etc but regardless of any of that it would seem like a huge stretch for Leicester and Burnley to be able to hit on 1.36 and 1.3 points per game averages over the next 10/11 gameweeks which would be a significant improvement (0.7 and 0.5 PPG respectively) on what they have produced over a pretty big sample size.

For the lols, I hope Everton go down.

They will probably escape as the bottom 3 or 4 are quite poor

Shanotheslayer

Leicester

rarnes1 wrote: »

For the lols, I hope Everton go down.

They will probably escape as the bottom 3 or 4 are quite poor

You wouldn't want a Merseyside Derby? Find that strange, Usually a easy 6 pointer for you :pac:

Basically the above, we'll stay up because teams are more sh!t but even then in dodgy grounds. A Random QPR/Burnley result and we're in dire straits. Only team I'm 100% certain will go down is Leicester

LuckyLloyd

Leicester

Paully D wrote: »

Of course it doesn't take into account things like the fixture list, refereeing decisions etc but regardless of any of that it would seem like a huge stretch for Leicester and Burnley to be able to hit on 1.36 and 1.3 points per game averages over the next 10/11 gameweeks which would be a significant improvement (0.7 and 0.5 PPG respectively) on what they have produced over a pretty big sample size.

Plus it has been proven that sides facing the threat of relegation perform worse over the run in relative to their general ppg haul on average. That seems counter intuitive as we all love the stories of the teams that go on a great run to save themselves but anytime that happens it's an exception to a well engrained trend.

Patser

QPR

Just looking at fixtures left for the bottom 6 and if you ask me Hull could be in big trouble. Fair enough they've Leicester and Burnley to play but also Arsenal, Pool, Southampton, Utd, Spurs and Chelsea (Swansea and Palace are last ). That's as tough a run in as there is.

In contrast Sunderland's and Villa's are a miss mash of a few top teams, a few safe mid tablers and a few from the relegation zone.

Leicester are a bit adrift now and looking down to me, while Burnley have just started a nightmare run of fixtures losing to Pool but with City, Southampton, Spurs and Arsenal next up. So I can see them also falling away a bit. QPR have a mixed bag a top teams or bottom teams left so they're not safe. But for me if Hull don't get a win against Leicester in their next game they could sink like a stone.

Paully D

QPR 1-2 Spurs.

I watched the game and felt that QPR did well for large parts. Austin missed a sitter, then proceeded to hit the crossbar from arguably an even better chance and they were also denied what appeared to be a pretty clear penalty too. Definitely a game they'll have been disappointed not to take something from.

Anyway, the end result is that they are now in the exact same situation as Burnley, needing to hit 1.3 PPG (an improvement of 0.52 PPG on their current average) to reach 35 points.

Paully D

3 absolutely huge games today in the battle to avoid the drop - Leicester v Hull, Sunderland v Villa and Palace v QPR. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see all 3 end level. A 42/1 treble for the 3 draws is a nice bet.

eagle eye

Leicester

I fancy a high scoring game between Palace and QPR.

I picked Burnley to go down because I despise them, Leicester because of their manager and QPR because they look clueless most of the time despite Charlie Austin's best efforts.

Austin will be playing for a top ten side next season I'd guess.

Unearthly

That looked horribly painful

Harry Palmr

Leicester

Palace 2-0. QPR seem to be utterly clueless and lacking any sort of conviction

JPA

2 nil Palace. QPR doing absolutely nothing.

Harry Palmr

Leicester

make that 3-0!

HT 3-0

Just looked at their remaining games - boy they are as good as down.

Harry Palmr

Leicester

Sunderland in bother!

Paully D

Harry Palmr wrote: »

Sunderland in bother!

Sunderland will likely have a 4 point gap between them and 18th (presuming City defeat Burnley later) with 9 games to go. The only thing that will keep them up is if QPR, Burnley and Leicester continue to be as poor as they have been as Sunderland aren't winning another game this season under Poyet.

Patser

QPR

Harry Palmr wrote: »

Sunderland in bother!

Understatement of the year

4 - 0 down to relegation rivals.

Guy:Incognito

Guy:Incognito wrote: »

Villa will throw a run of a couple of wins and a draw together and be 7 or 8 points clear of relegation and everyone will wonder what the fuss was about.

Boom!. Villa are crap but also predictable.