The Masters 2015 **MOD warning in OP**

diomed

In the 15 year from 2000 Tiger won 3, Phil Mickleson 3, Bubba 2, so 8 of 15. You can't expect 100% domination.

Schwartzel won in 2011 from Jason Day and Adam Scott.
Cabrera won in 2009 (a one-off winner), lost a play-off in 2013 to Adam Scott.
Tiger Woods was runner-up in 2007 to Zach Johnson, and in 2008 to Trevor Immelman.
Retief Goosen was 2nd in 2002 and 2007.

Rikand

diomed wrote: »

People say first-timers seldom win at Augusta. My thinking is that some players have dominated there and that it is the type of player that counts, not their experience.
78 tournaments, 47 won by repeat winners, 31 won by once only winners. The repeaters are a mix of exceptional drivers, robot-like players, and exceptional putters.
Arnold Palmer (4), Ben Crenshaw (2), Ben Hogan (2), Bernhard Langer (2), Bubba Watson (2), Byron Nelson (2), Gary Player (3), Horton Smith (2), Jack Nicklaus (6), Jimmy Demaret (3), José María Olazábal (2), Nick Faldo (3), Phil Mickelson (3), Sam Snead (3), Seve Ballesteros (2), Tiger Woods (4), Tom Watson (2).

I'd fancy bubba to make it 3

First Up

Only three players have won it on their first visit. One (obviously) was the first time it was played and another was the second time it was played. The only other was 36 years ago.
Every other winner had experience of the course and I can't think of another course (especially in the US) where experience and local knowledge is as valuable.

It also suits people who can draw the ball and length is more important than precision off the tee, although knowing where to land it comes in handy on the (many) hilly parts.

When you throw in the number of former winners who are there for fun and a few other tokens and you can reduce the number of likely potential winners by quite a bit.

HighLine

diomed wrote: »

People say first-timers seldom win at Augusta. My thinking is that some players have dominated there and that it is the type of player that counts, not their experience.
78 tournaments, 47 won by repeat winners, 31 won by once only winners. The repeaters are a mix of exceptional drivers, robot-like players, and exceptional putters.
Arnold Palmer (4), Ben Crenshaw (2), Ben Hogan (2), Bernhard Langer (2), Bubba Watson (2), Byron Nelson (2), Gary Player (3), Horton Smith (2), Jack Nicklaus (6), Jimmy Demaret (3), José María Olazábal (2), Nick Faldo (3), Phil Mickelson (3), Sam Snead (3), Seve Ballesteros (2), Tiger Woods (4), Tom Watson (2).

Yeah... and it is said for good reason. You left out the very stat that would back up your point... namely... the amount of 1st time winners as posted above by First Up.

Personally, I'm really hoping Buba doesn't make it number 3.

diomed

HighLine wrote: »

Yeah... and it is said for good reason. You left out the very stat that would back up your point... namely... the amount of 1st time winners as posted above by First Up.

One of the biggest reasons there are few first-time winners escapes most people. This reason makes it a dubious stat - amateurs.
Six amateurs are invited to the US Masters annually. These are the best amateurs in the world, mostly young players, three of them winners of major US amateur titles. This policy imo spikes the chances of a first-time win for many players as they are inexperienced amateurs.

Of the 52 winners since 1963 24 had their first experience at Augusta as amateurs: Jack Nicklaus (6); Tiger Woods (4); Phil Mickleson (3); Jose-Maria Olazabal (2); Ben Crenshaw (2); Tom Watson (2); Mark O'Meara (1); Craig Stadler (1). * Edit: also played as amateurs
Tommy Aaron 1973 (1), Charles Coody 1971 (1), and Trevor Immelman 2008 (1).

Since first-time winner Fuzzy Zoeller 36 years ago in 1979 there have been 14 non-USA winners, 16 winners who played first as amateurs, and Larry Mize; Fred Couples; Zach Johnson; Bubba Watson.

jjll

loadwire wrote: »

Roe's an awful commentator IMO. Someone should tell him that saying 'really' lots of times (as in 'that is a really really really good shot') does not equal good analysis.

Also comments like that with his talent thats only a 7/10 and on a sunday he always says i fancied him to do well on this course this week when the person is winning

Johnny_Fontane

gotta be able to move the ball both ways and hit it a mile.

My other rationale, is must be in form early season (and have ideally won).

Therefore I like Day, Spieth and as an outsider JB Holmes.

Johnny_Fontane

jjll wrote: »

Also comments like that with his talent thats only a 7/10 and on a sunday he always says i fancied him to do well on this course this week when the person is winning

ha ha....wait until monty hits the airwaves at the masters!

diomed

First time winners of majors just for info

British Open
2003 Ben Curtis
1975 Tom Watson
1964 Tony Lema
1953 Ben Hogan
(from 1934)

US Open
1913 Francis Ouimet

US PGA
2011 Keegan Bradley
2003 Shaun Micheel
1991 John Daly
1986 Bob Tway
(didn't check before 1958 as it was match-play)

abff

diomed wrote: »

One of the biggest reasons there are few first-time winners escapes most people. This reason makes it a dubious stat - amateurs.
Six amateurs are invited to the US Masters annually. These are the best amateurs in the world, mostly young players, three of them winners of major US amateur titles. This policy imo spikes the chances of a first-time win for many players as they are inexperienced amateurs.

Tiger Woods won the Masters in his first appearance as a professional, having played it twice as an amateur. Does anyone know if anyone else achieved this feat?

diomed

abff wrote: »

Tiger Woods won the Masters in his first appearance as a professional, having played it twice as an amateur. Does anyone know if anyone else achieved this feat?

Ben Crenshaw won leading amateur two years in a row.
Tiger was leading amateur in his first year (finished 41st), cut in his second year.
Jack Nicklaus was leading amateur in the Masters in 1960 (finished 13th), leading amateur in the US Open in 1960 (finished 2nd), 1961 (finished 4th), and won the US Open in 1962. Jack Nicklaus was 7th in the US masters in 1961 as an amateur but the leading amateur was Charlie Coe, who finished 2nd with Arnold Palmer, a shot behind Gary Player. So much better than Tiger.

vienne86

Johnny_Fontane wrote: »

gotta be able to move the ball both ways and hit it a mile.

My other rationale, is must be in form early season (and have ideally won).

Therefore I like Day, Spieth and as an outsider JB Holmes.

Spieth would be the guy I fancy for the Masters, but I would like to see Day get it. I just hope Lowry makes the cut.

slave1

vienne86 wrote: »

...I just hope Lowry makes the cut...

I think that would be an achievement, his putting is very poor at the minute, off the tee and GIR he is very happy with but by his own admission (forget where I read it) he needs something to happen with his putting...

I'm yet again saying (as an outsider) Poults!

slave1

FixdePitchmark wrote: »

Who would have pick Bubba say 3 years ago.

Since 2000 - you also have 7 players who won - and hardly featured again .

So - 1/2 the years since 2000 - there was no domination.

So , 1/2 is 50 % - tossing a coin is 50 % .

Since Tiger's demise post 2008 all the Majors have been a free for all, his 'absence' has allowed a large dispersion of winners...

rooney30

slave1 wrote: »

I think that would be an achievement, his putting is very poor at the minute, off the tee and GIR he is very happy with but by his own admission (forget where I read it) he needs something to happen with his putting...

I'm yet again saying (as an outsider) Poults!

Poults has very little chance in my opinion. He is a bit of a choker if you ask me. Has only won once on the PGA ( outside of matchplay events) after all these years. His collapse at the Honda will leave him scarred . He is not long enough either !

slave1

rooney30 wrote: »

Poults has very little chance in my opinion. He is a bit of a choker if you ask me. Has only won once on the PGA ( outside of matchplay events) after all these years. His collapse at the Honda will leave him scarred . He is not long enough either !

All the better for his odds :pac:

benny79

Zach Johnston won before and his starting to hit a bit of form

slave1

rooney30 wrote: »

...He is not long enough either !

benny79 wrote: »

Zach Johnston won before and his starting to hit a bit of form

Zach ain't long, neither was Weir.
Get your points though, perhaps better to consider Poults each way, that's what I do anyhow...not that I'm discussing betting here, just folks chances of winning.

benny79

poults bottled it in the Honda imagine what he'd do coming down the stretch in a major! Personally I think Rory is nailed on. but Zach is a good outsider

PARlance

I know he's still practicing with both, but has Scott made a definite statement about which putter he'll use?

He's my *** if he ditches the short short stick which I think he'll do.

FixdePitchmark

I wouldn't like to see Bubba win it - don't like him to start.

But -
I think The following would be my call

Mcilroy
Speith
Day

The course could suit Reed - but Reed looked weak towards end of Honda.

Dustin to me is the unpredictable - he has a shocking record in majors. Not to mention no record here at all.

So also ruling him out.

So I'm going for 3 above - hoping Bubba does not play like last year - because he looked miles ahead of everyone there. The course looks tight on tv - but clearly isn't.

People go on about how strong golf is ( I have too) - but when you go below the top 5/6 , there are not many you fancy at all.
Kaymer - Garcia are great golfers - but....

It is a strange major in a way.

FixdePitchmark

MODS ??

Was there a thread for betting tips

This non betting stuff is a bit daft (IMO)

Can we talk about it in feedback - or open a Masters Betting thread ?

scrubber72

My picks.
Winner Louis Oosthuizen
Top 5 Bubba Watson.
Top US Jordan Speith
Top European Henrik Stenson.
Top Rest of world. Jason Day

Rikand

There is a "golf tips thread" in the Gambling forum for anyone who's interested in that sort of thing ::

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056896763

I dont know whether they'll open a US masters one, but if they do, that would be the forum to head for I suppose.

FixdePitchmark

Rikand wrote: »

There is a "golf tips thread" in the Gambling forum for anyone who's interested in that sort of thing ::

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056896763

I dont know whether they'll open a US masters one, but if they do, that would be the forum to head for I suppose.

What is wrong with one here - was there talk of (at the time) - there would be some bit of gambling golf thread.

No interest in gamblers talking about golf.

I would like golfers talking about gambling.

Rikand

Well, there is the golf betting mega thread - hang on and I'll dig it out and bump it up

FixdePitchmark

Rikand wrote: »

Well, there is the golf betting mega thread - hang on and I'll dig it out and bump it up

Would it be better if we had a thread (Masters Betting Thread) ?

Will help flow during the final crazness .

We can also send non golf dudes straight to there if they come on going

"PHHHHIILLLL" ya Bollix - I had you at 50/1

Rikand

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056948763

Thats the link to it there and I have bumped it to the front page as well

Rikand

FixdePitchmark wrote: »

Would it be better if we had a thread (Masters Betting Thread) ?

Will help flow during the final crazness .

We can also send non golf dudes straight to there if they come on going

"PHHHHIILLLL" ya Bollix - I had you at 50/1

Would constitute a change in the charter I suppose.... I'll let you lead the torches and pitchforks on that one FDP

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=320620

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