Aer Lingus Fleet/Routes Discussion

Tenger

Van.Bosch wrote: »

I still reckon this is a PR move, for IAG to get a better deal from Airbus and Boring to get some good news re the max. Seems huge to move Vueling to a 737 operation.

Saying that, does that mean a single fleet operator can never change, which seems wrong.

Indeed. A letter of intent is not quite a firm order.
This could well be Deal between IAG and Boeing. Boost B737 sales, get a deal off B777x and/or B787s, get favorable slots on the B777x, (of which BA have 18 on order), and still have a large option in B737 to offer Level, Iberia or BA.

Lots of guesswork here, but we may never know the real tale for 4-5 years.

kevinandrew

Van.Bosch wrote: »

I still reckon this is a PR move, for IAG to get a better deal from Airbus and Boring to get some good news re the max. Seems huge to move Vueling to a 737 operation.

Saying that, does that mean a single fleet operator can never change, which seems wrong.

You could be right, Airbus today confirmed they didn't even receive a request to bid for the order suggesting it was most definitely an orchestrated move by IAG to squeeze Boeing at a tough time. Airbus are now actively interested in winning the order back from Boeing. 

I think this order could go either way;

- Airbus offers a killer deal on 200+ A320neo Family aircraft + A220 Family as a cherry on top. Boeing scorned. 
- IAG sticks with Boeing, it's a good deal, keeps Boeing sweet and allows the group to diversify its fleet requirements making future orders even more competitive. Most of the large American carriers follow a similar strategy. 

I think overall this deal makes perfect sense for IAG in the long term but then so does sticking with Airbus.

L1011

Airbus don't have the delivery slots - Boeing have quite a few from recently failed airlines that were due to take deliveries and there will almost certainly be cancellations that are still being suppressed from the whole grounding debacle. If you want that size of aircraft in that volume quick there's no point talking to Airbus.

Jamie2k9

Kcormahs wrote: »

We may see Agadir again and a new route to Marrakesh with Aer Lingus soon enough, accordingly to a few sources:

https://www.infomediaire.net/aerien-aer-lingus-va-bientot-atterrir-au-maroc/

http://northafricapost.com/31935-for-ireland-morocco-is-gateway-to-african-markets.html

Interesting, must be some form of marketing support on offer if they happen.

kevinandrew

Kcormahs wrote: »

We may see Agadir again and a new route to Marrakesh with Aer Lingus soon enough, accordingly to a few sources:

https://www.infomediaire.net/aerien-aer-lingus-va-bientot-atterrir-au-maroc/

http://northafricapost.com/31935-for-ireland-morocco-is-gateway-to-african-markets.html

This would be a welcome return to North Africa, I'll believe it when I see but I was definitely disappointed when Aer Lingus axed Agadir after operating it for the best part of a decade. 

Agadir was first announced as part of the 2007 winter schedule, it was accompanied by Helsinki, Bucharest, Copenhagen and Funchal along with Vilnius which became year round and Cork to Munich. None of these routes are still in operation today.

tanya1987

kevinandrew wrote: »

This would be a welcome return to North Africa, I'll believe it when I see but I was definitely disappointed when Aer Lingus axed Agadir after operating it for the best part of a decade. 

Agadir was first announced as part of the 2007 winter schedule, it was accompanied by Helsinki, Bucharest, Copenhagen and Funchal along with Vilnius which became year round and Cork to Munich. None of these routes are still in operation today.

Yeah same, I believe it when I see it. Arabia air marroco already flies to AGA not sure if its year around and Ryanair to Marrakesh. Id be surprised if EI goes back to this market unless there is a government incentive since they are investing in trade links between the two countries as said on those sources incld. a new Irish embassy in Agadir

Sexual Chocolate

Does anyone believe that EI will eventually look at flying long haul other than the US or Canada in the next number of years? Is it fair to say that they missed an opportunity with Hong Kong giving how popular it's became for Cathay ?

GM228

Van.Bosch wrote: »

still reckon this is a PR move, for IAG to get a better deal from Airbus and Boring to get some good news re the max. Seems huge to move Vueling to a 737 operation.

Saying that, does that mean a single fleet operator can never change, which seems wrong.

Indeed, Airbus have called for a chance to bid.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-france-airshow-idUKKCN1TL0TR

Kev11491

Sexual Chocolate wrote: »

Does anyone believe that EI will eventually look at flying long haul other than the US or Canada in the next number of years? Is it fair to say that they missed an opportunity with Hong Kong giving how popular it's became for Cathay ?

They are focussing on North America, that's their business plan.

Locker10a

Sexual Chocolate wrote: »

Does anyone believe that EI will eventually look at flying long haul other than the US or Canada in the next number of years? Is it fair to say that they missed an opportunity with Hong Kong giving how popular it's became for Cathay ?

With the new aircraft they have coming, which will bring new economics to their operation, anything is possible I suppose

Nijmegen

Work at what you know. Diversifying the network within the US is as good as trying to diversify it to countries you've never successfully operated to before. EI has deep links there, eg with the United tie up. Geography plays a big role, Ireland is a good place to stop over going Europe-US and vice versa but it is not a good place vs Frankfurt or Amsterdam to connect from Asia or Africa into Europe for example.

Jack1985

kevinandrew wrote: »

This would be a welcome return to North Africa, I'll believe it when I see but I was definitely disappointed when Aer Lingus axed Agadir after operating it for the best part of a decade. 

Agadir was first announced as part of the 2007 winter schedule, it was accompanied by Helsinki, Bucharest, Copenhagen and Funchal along with Vilnius which became year round and Cork to Munich. None of these routes are still in operation today.

Just to point out ORK-MUC is winter ski seasonal. Aer Lingus didn't have the cost base to operate the above routes, they faced competition in HEL by DY (Much more established in Finland and known for Finnish travellers), Bucharest (Blueair and Ryanair sowed that up), Copenhagen (Competition from DY/SAS and FR).

Agadir previously tied up an airframe from late afternoon to midnight and the company wanted to send that frame elsewhere for increased sectors, Funchal wasn't as busy as most expected when it launched, it would probably be wise to start that at 1 weekly and go from there instead of the 4 weekly it launched at.

The companies goals are clear a thriving long-haul operation supported by a profitable short-haul business, nothing will compromise that however fancy the destination may sound.

kevinandrew

Jack1985 wrote: »

kevinandrew wrote: »

This would be a welcome return to North Africa, I'll believe it when I see but I was definitely disappointed when Aer Lingus axed Agadir after operating it for the best part of a decade. 

Agadir was first announced as part of the 2007 winter schedule, it was accompanied by Helsinki, Bucharest, Copenhagen and Funchal along with Vilnius which became year round and Cork to Munich. None of these routes are still in operation today.

Just to point out ORK-MUC is winter ski seasonal. Aer Lingus didn't have the cost base to operate the above routes, they faced competition in HEL by DY (Much more established in Finland and known for Finnish travellers), Bucharest (Blueair and Ryanair sowed that up), Copenhagen (Competition from DY/SAS and FR).

Agadir previously tied up an airframe from late afternoon to midnight and the company wanted to send that frame elsewhere for increased sectors, Funchal wasn't as busy as most expected when it launched, it would probably be wise to start that at 1 weekly and go from there instead of the 4 weekly it launched at.

The companies goals are clear a thriving long-haul operation supported by a profitable short-haul business, nothing will compromise that however fancy the destination may sound.

I understand the reasoning behind why there routes (and around half a dozen others) have been axed in recent years but it raises the question, when does this lack of competitiveness become unacceptable?

The failures of individual routes can be explained away quite easily but the underlying issues always appear to be the same.

sandbelter

Interesting Aer Lingus twitter reply on June 19th.

Q: You still looking into the A330neo aircraft?

To which EI replied:

We are indeed! We should be announcing more news about them soon!

Maybe I'm missing something, But I didn't think EI was that close to a decision.

https://twitter.com/FullBatteryStu/status/1141251294302298112

alancostello

sandbelter wrote: »

Interesting Aer Lingus twitter reply on June 19th.

Q: You still looking into the A330neo aircraft?

To which EI replied:

We are indeed! We should be announcing more news about them soon!

Maybe I'm missing something, But I didn't think EI was that close to a decision.

https://twitter.com/FullBatteryStu/status/1141251294302298112

I’m not sure how up to date someone who is likely a marketing intern or low-level social media rep would be on fleet development and major decisions, I wouldn’t read too much in to it.

cson

A 330neo announcement would probably tie in with off loading the A350 order to Iberia/BA. Likely get unplaced A330neos off one of the lessors, Avolon/CIT/ALC who've 60 odd ordered between them. Definitely a more appropriate aircraft for the direction the airline is heading.

sandbelter

cson wrote: »

A 330neo announcement would probably tie in with off loading the A350 order to Iberia/BA. Likely get unplaced A330neos off one of the lessors, Avolon/CIT/ALC who've 60 odd ordered between them. Definitely a more appropriate aircraft for the direction the airline is heading.

So is this evaluation being undertaken in parallel of the ongoing A330neo/B787 contest which is being undertaken at an IAG level or is it part of it?

Tenger

alancostello wrote: »

I’m not sure how up to date someone who is likely a marketing intern or low-level social media rep would be on fleet development and major decisions, I wouldn’t read too much in to it.

I on the other hand would suspect that the social media boss wouldn’t respond in such a way without approval from above. This post is quite different from the usual “sorry about your experience, please DM your booking details”

I could see EI taking delivery of their next A333 (end of the year) and at a same time making a statement about an order for the A330neo which is ”the future of the A330 program”. (This statement will include some hype for the “very successful introduction of the A321LR into our fleet”)

The IAG/EI statement about the XLR order said delivery in 2022-23. A potential A330neo delivery could be planned for 2021. (A321LR deliveries are 19-20, so there is a gap for delivery the following year)

1123heavy

kevinandrew wrote: »

This would be a welcome return to North Africa, I'll believe it when I see but I was definitely disappointed when Aer Lingus axed Agadir after operating it for the best part of a decade. 

Agadir was first announced as part of the 2007 winter schedule, it was accompanied by Helsinki, Bucharest, Copenhagen and Funchal along with Vilnius which became year round and Cork to Munich. None of these routes are still in operation today.

Ryanair currently operate a monopoly to Vilnius and tickets are not cheap with it often costing 100eu+ even when you book in advance. I once checked 2 months in advance and they were 96eu each way. I suppose the issue is that if Aer Lingus were to start Vilnius again then suddenly Ryanair would drop their prices to fend them off and then they'll be alone on the market again

Tenger

2 articles in Irish papers yesterday about the IAG order for the MAX. It appears Airbus want a chance to counter offer. Looks like WW achieved his aim (or at least one of them)

sdanseo

Tenger wrote: »

2 articles in Irish papers yesterday about the IAG order for the MAX. It appears Airbus want a chance to counter offer. Looks like WW achieved his aim (or at least one of them)

Indeed. Signing a (meaningless) LOI with Boeing suprised me. Mostly airbus in the group and perhaps Toulouse simply weren't playing ball on price.

The MAX is scarred and will take months or years after re-entry to service to fully recover its reputation. Walsh was a 737 captain, he knows better than the rest of us do that the aircraft's design was fundamentally a shortcut. That said,
some of his comments have been very favourable to Boeing in the last week. Maybe more so than if he intended to play them against Airbus.

Time will tell.

Sexual Chocolate

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pcr0expHnqo

john boye

Part of me thinks Airbus will struggle to beat or even match the deal that IAG supposedly got from Boeing.

Jack1985

As well as the two confirmed A330ceo's on the way in 19/20 for EI, two more second hand (newer models) frames have come on the market, these are being evaluated to facilitate two earlier than planned fleet exits.

Tenger

Jack1985 wrote: »

As well as the two confirmed A330ceo's on the way in 19/20 for EI, two more second hand (newer models) frames have come on the market, these are being evaluated to facilitate two earlier than planned fleet exits.

Are these the rumoured ex-Jet airways A330s?

1123heavy

Tenger wrote: »

Are these the rumoured ex-Jet airways A330s?

I thought Aer Lingus had new 330 ceos coming from Airbus themselves

Tenger

1123heavy wrote: »

I thought Aer Lingus had new 330 ceos coming from Airbus themselves

They do. Mentioned at the livery unveil. Delivery is either side of the New Year If I recall.

In addition there was a rumor of possible 2nd hand ex-Jet Airways A330s. Hence my query above.

kevinandrew

Are they -200 or -300 variants? Either way, this could kick the A330neo down the road a bit longer.

goingnowhere

-300 HGW models

Tenger

kevinandrew wrote: »

Are they -200 or -300 variants? Either way, this could kick the A330neo down the road a bit longer.

Maybe not. IAG/EI have sketched out their future fleet but over the last 3-4 years we have seen unexpected additions (GEY) when the opportunity arose.
Going on past statements, EI had planned 1 new route per year, IAG doubled that expansion rate.
The new build A330s are (presumably) already planned for use in 2020. Any additional A330s could accelerate another route launch or increase existing frequency.

And as I speculated previously there is a 2021 sized gap in the currently planned delivery schedule. (At leafy based on official statements by IAG/EI)
Could suit an initial A330neo delivery for replacement of a -200?
When do EWR and GEY finish their lease?

IAG certainly have the purchasing power to get favorable delivery slots from Airbus. EI alone were always going to be far down the pecking order, regardless of loyalty.


All just speculation of course.

goingnowhere

One -200 is going in 2020, so we can assume the new -300 HGW come with the crew rest option fitted

Question is which -200 is going

EWR lease is up (?) and is not crew rest fitted
GEY is the oddball in the fleet but suggested to be refitted late 2019
LAX is the oldest and it is suggest a need for some major work, too many jet-bridge and other ground damage, but EI own her outright so no saving to be had and likely would be a scrap job

tanya1987

Is YUL (Montreal) meant to start or it’s like OPO where Aer Lingus cancelled the route completely before starting?
If its meant to start, any specific date?

kevinandrew

Aer Lingus to operate the A321LR on SNN-JFK from 12 March 2020

Wonder if they'll squeeze in a LHR rotation here as well.

California Dreamer

The only advantage to my TLS-DUB delay is the view of the Airbus factory and there among the built, painted, primer, defunct airlines is the EI A321. Plane spotters dream here. 2 WOW A330s sitting there with no engines and a 32 year old A320 in company colours.

Nijmegen

IAG are pretty consistent in saying that expansion is based on getting the right frames at the right price. Indeed that’s the line from most profitable growing airlines around the world. So you could see some opportunistic moves.

Shamrockj

Going by the schedule next may MSP is operated on the A330-200 Tue Thur Sat and SEA will be daily. Amazing to see a route only launched last year doing so well already. Being so far away things could change but looking like a busy schedule with LAX on the A330-300 and IAD also

kevinandrew

California Dreamer wrote: »

The only advantage to my TLS-DUB delay is the view of the Airbus factory and there among the built, painted, primer, defunct airlines is the EI A321. Plane spotters dream here. 2 WOW A330s sitting there with no engines and a 32 year old A320 in company colours.

The new A321LR? Those are being built in Hamburg Finkenwerder (XFW) so you may have seen another aircraft or maybe even one of the new A330s in the crowd, although it’s probably too early for them to be appearing.

TLS is an interesting airport, one half a busy passenger airport and the other a factory churning out dozens of aircraft a month. I think the two Wow aircraft may have been A330neo’s, the airline collapsed before they could be delivered and I don’t think they’ve found a home yet. Maybe they’ll find their way to Dublin...

California Dreamer

kevinandrew wrote: »

The new A321LR? Those are being built in Hamburg Finkenwerder (XFW) so you may have seen another aircraft or maybe even one of the new A330s in the crowd, although it’s probably too early for them to be appearing.

TLS is an interesting airport, one half a busy passenger airport and the other a factory churning out dozens of aircraft a month. I think the two Wow aircraft may have been A330neo’s, the airline collapsed before they could be delivered and I don’t think they’ve found a home yet. Maybe they’ll find their way to Dublin...

You could be right, I think it was a new level A330. Just came back from a test flight.

Jack1985

Tenger wrote: »

Are these the rumoured ex-Jet airways A330s?

I don’t actually know but being told they are pursuing two further A330 acquisitions in addition to the two on the way, also not sure are they 200 or 300 models, as pointed out the two confirmed on the way are 300HGW.

Jamie2k9

Update from mid May 2020:
A321LR:
DUB-PHl (B752)
DUB-BDL (B752)
SNN-BOS (B752)
SNN-JFK (B752)
*4 more due in 2020 unallocated.

DUB-MSP going daily A330-200 (B752)
SEA daily A330-200 (x5)
LAX daily A330-300 (-200)
IAD daily A330-300 (-200, prev showing A321)

*MSP shows A332 start x3 but by mid May up to 6/7 weekly.

Only suprise to me is IAD, not sure it will be 300.

——

Current schedules show 4 A332 required (SEA, YYZ, MSP and MIA/MCO (x4). If MSP was only x3 weekly A330 then it would indicate only 3 required based on current schedules.

cson

IAD is probably taking some of the old WOW traffic ex BWI as EI are very competitive price wise on the unpacked Y fare.

banchang

Is the 2+2+2 configuration in business called EI-GEY ?

Travelling to Miami next Sunday & when I look at the Aer Lingus seat maps online

https://www.aerlingus.com/media/pdfs/aerlingus_seat_maps.pdf

I cant see a config which has 2+2+2 starting with Row 1 which I am supposedly in ?

Van.Bosch

banchang wrote: »

Is the 2+2+2 configuration in business called EI-GEY ?

Travelling to Miami next Sunday & when I look at the Aer Lingus seat maps online

https://www.aerlingus.com/media/pdfs/aerlingus_seat_maps.pdf

I cant see a config which has 2+2+2 starting with Row 1 which I am supposedly in ?

It’s not shown on that page but doing a dummy booking for Miami on Sunday shows 2/2/2 which is EI-GEY

Tenger

California Dreamer wrote: »

The only advantage to my TLS-DUB delay is the view of the Airbus factory and there among the built, painted, primer, defunct airlines is the EI A321. Plane spotters dream here. 2 WOW A330s sitting there with no engines and a 32 year old A320 in company colours.

Its certainly a location on my bucket list. When I was crew I loved operating into TLS. Got a pic one day of all the Guppys up. (Cant remember is they are 5 or 6 of them)

California Dreamer

Tenger wrote: »

Its certainly a location on my bucket list. When I was crew I loved operating into TLS. Got a pic one day of all the Guppys up. (Cant remember is they are 5 or 6 of them)

I saw 3/4 come and go over a few hours.

Karl8415

With the immediate arrival of additional A330-300’s would that give insight into EI’s future plans for wide bodied frames in relation to capacity because if it is then does that mean that the 200 model been fazed out over time now that they have access to bigger frames capable of covering US west coast

Karl8415

Karl8415 wrote: »

With the immediate arrival of additional A330-300’s would that give insight into EI’s future plans for wide bodied frames in relation to capacity because if it is then does that mean that the 200 model been fazed out over time now that they have access to bigger frames capable of covering US west coast

Yes Aer Lingus has previously said publicly their intention was to faze out the -200 for the -300 for the extra capacity.

1123heavy

Deleted User wrote: »

Yes Aer Lingus has previously said publicly their intention was to faze out the -200 for the -300 for the extra capacity.

Aren't they struggling for capacity on numerous TA routes? Used the LA route a few times and it was mostly empty, SFO does seem to perform better but travelled a few times with 180+ seats free ... good for the standby staff travel though

I can certainly see why a few years back they stripped everything but Chicago, NY and Boston, these seem to be consistently full whatever the weather

kevinandrew

Average load factors have remained steady or even increased slightly during the past five years of growth across the Atlantic so any witnessed low loads obviously aren’t a regular enough occurrence to impact the overall numbers.


The A333 is also cheaper to operate these days, I think it even has a cost advantage over the A332 on similar route profiles and loads. Also with the A333 now able to reach the west coast in its HGW variant the need for the A332 is diminishing at Aer Lingus and indeed other airlines as we’ve seen with the order book.

Shamrockj

1123heavy wrote: »

Aren't they struggling for capacity on numerous TA routes? Used the LA route a few times and it was mostly empty, SFO does seem to perform better but travelled a few times with 180+ seats free ... good for the standby staff travel though

I can certainly see why a few years back they stripped everything but Chicago, NY and Boston, these seem to be consistently full whatever the weather

Not really LA and SFO are both over booked today like most days. San Fran is daily year round on the A330-300 and always full