Dublin West General Election - SEE MOD NOTE POST 19.

damemcd

And where is she going to pick up votes from?

ThisRegard

holly_johnson wrote: »

Ah I get you now. It could be based on where she lives?

Possible, but I always thought she was more South Dublin based, i.e. DLR. But doing a quick bit of research I see she has been active enough in the area so that's fair enough.

Anyway, just back from my lunchtime run and I see that from Mulhuddart down the N2-N3 link road, past Tyrrelstown and towards Hollystown, and around the back of the business parks is gloriously poster free, apart from one rogue AAA one for a 'public meeting'. Shame it will probably be all changed from this evening.

January

Tj clare and jack chambers getting their posters up in mulhuddart.

AGC

So what is the official rule? Midnight tonight?

Grudaire

Mary Fitzpatrick has one down in a front garden on the Navan Road - it's bad enough all the posters from candidates actually in the damn constituency! :P

I hope they do manage to get the candidates to answer the (many) questions posted in the other thread

angryIreGamer

AGC wrote: »

So what is the official rule? Midnight tonight?

for posters, its 30 days before the election, or after the polling order is signed. Which ever is the shorter.

athtrasna

Grudaire wrote: »

Mary Fitzpatrick has one down in a front garden on the Navan Road - it's bad enough all the posters from candidates actually in the damn constituency! :P

I hope they do manage to get the candidates to answer the (many) questions posted in the other thread

She always had that one

AGC

Tanaiste is getting additional Garda protection when campaigning

chucknorris

AGC wrote: »

Tanaiste is getting additional Garda protection when campaigning

From what I'm seeing on the doors, she'll get a bit of ear-bashing but really when a candidate comes to a door, people become more polite than they said they would.

I'm sure there must be votes for her in mature, middle of the road areas and maybe also in the upper classes.

AGC

chucknorris wrote: »

From what I'm seeing on the doors, she'll get a bit of ear-bashing but really when a candidate comes to a door, people become more polite than they said they would.

I'm sure there must be votes for her in mature, middle of the road areas and maybe also in the upper classes.

I think she will scrap it, it will be close but hopefully she gets in ahead of Coppinger.

I agree people become more polite, tough questions fair enough.

To need additional protection shows what mutants are around the country.

Grudaire

athtrasna wrote:

She always had that one

Yeah, but usually the Navan Road is her constituency!

chucknorris

AGC wrote: »

I think she will scrap it, it will be close but hopefully she gets in ahead of Coppinger.

I agree people become more polite, tough questions fair enough.

To need additional protection shows what mutants are around the country.

As I see it and i mean this genuinely - I think herself, david and jack will battle for the last seat and whomever of those three go out will first will push one of the reminders over the line.

AGC

chucknorris wrote: »

As I see it and i mean this genuinely - I think herself, david and jack will battle for the last seat and whomever of those three go out will first will push one of the reminders over the line.

I think David will miss out with also one of Burton, Chambers & Coppinger missing out.

Where do you see David's transfers going? I would have thought Donnelly/Coppinger??

My 4 for what its worth is Leo, Donnelly, Chambers, Burton....If I used my head I would have Coppinger instead of Burton but just don't want her getting in!

chucknorris

AGC wrote: »

I think David will miss out with also one of Burton, Chambers & Coppinger missing out.

Where do you see David's transfers going? I would have thought Donnelly/Coppinger??

My 4 for what its worth is Leo, Donnelly, Chambers, Burton....If I used my head I would have Coppinger instead of Burton but just don't want her getting in!

I think its obvious that we live in a left leaning constituency so I'm sorry to say SF and Socialists are a shoe in. Two by-elections and the recent local elections don't lie on that front.

Leo is a shoe in.

If Joan maintains her core vote she is in with a chance, but i have not picked it up in all of the mature Blanch area such as Roselawn and the Clonsilla road etc.

Jack will get a vote out of Castleknock but just not picking him up as you move to Blanch or Clonsilla.

Call me biased but it seems David is retaining plenty of his previous vote, which cannot be good for chambers, but also the defacto Independent vote. I'm never lied here when it came to what i'm seeing on the canvass in 5 elections with him so all i'm saying is, Independents are close to 30% in Dublin and FF on 10% so who knows.

Food for thought. Castleknock gave David around 2600 votes in the last by-election and Chambers got 2650 in the locals at the same time from the same place. Is that FF's limit when it comes to votes from Castleknock? If so, how many of those could David take?

AGC

chucknorris wrote: »

I think its obvious that we live in a left leaning constituency so I'm sorry to say SF and Socialists are a show in. Two by-elections and the local elections don't lile

Leo is a shoe in.

If Joan maintains her core vote she is in with a chance, but i have not picked it up in all of the mature Blanch area such as Roselawn and the Clonsilla road etc.

Jack will get a vote out of Castleknock but just not picking him up as you move to Blanch or Clonsilla.

Call me biased but it seems David is retaining plenty of his previous vote, which cannot be good for chambers, but also the defacto Independent vote. I'm never lied here when it came to what i'm seeing on the canvass in 5 elections with him so all i'm saying is, Independents are close to 30% in Dublin and FF on 10% so who knows,

I hope you have a good bet on him so at 5's!

I agree with you on Coppinger, she could maybe work in David's favour as surely a lot of people won't give her the support that Joe got so if he can gather those votes he'll get closer.

angryIreGamer

one thing about Chambers is he seems really reluctant to commit to an answer on a few areas especially when asked follow on questions about them. Since hes the only one to be to my door so far, only one i can comment on.

chucknorris

angryIreGamer wrote: »

one thing about Chambers is he seems really reluctant to commit to an answer on a few areas especially when asked follow on questions about them. Since hes the only one to be to my door so far, only one i can comment on.

He is avoiding all public debate. He has Q4 public relations working on his behalf. He is being kept in cling film with the hope he slides in to the seat, it might work and it might not.

chucknorris

AGC wrote: »

I hope you have a good bet on him so at 5's!

I agree with you on Coppinger, she could maybe work in David's favour as surely a lot of people won't give her the support that Joe got so if he can gather those votes he'll get closer.

AGC I've never, ever spoofed on here. we did a large estate off the Clonsilla road last night. It was out the door support for him. There is a consistent theme too - that what FF done on him was shameful. David is openly now saying he has more support on the doors than he had with FF. perhaps he is the safe port of call for undecided - maybe but time will tell.

A lot of what was picked up outside of castleknock is that Chambers is too young. Nothing we say here influences the election so i'm not trying to portray lies for some gain. There is no gain on this forum.

David has no quibbles about it. When people on the doors say he was treated 'shabbily', he tells them that he went independent because he could not support a candidate who has very little real life experience or who hasn't worked a day in his life. Now you might say you don't like that but guess what, the people on the doors know this already.

I was on a canvass at Tesco a few days ago and there are plenty of retired public servants in that area and they all know this. These people ate not stupid.

Look - who knows what will happen but David is doing extremely well on the doors - better than before but we also know humpty dumpty would get a core FF vote if put forward so he most likely loses a lot but needs to make that up, perhaps from undecided and lost Labour voters. .

AGC

chucknorris wrote: »

AGC I've never, ever spoofed on here. we did a large estate off the Clonsilla road last night. It was out the door support for him. There is a consistent theme too - that what FF done on him was shameful. David is openly now saying he has more support on the doors than he had with FF. perhaps he is the safe port of call for undecided - maybe but time will tell.

A lot of what was picked up outside of castleknock is that Chambers is too young. Nothing we say here influences the election so i'm not trying to portray lies for some gain. There is no gain on this forum.

David has no quibbles about it. When people on the doors say he was treated 'shabbily', he tells them that he went independent because he could not support a candidate who has very little real life experience or who hasn't worked a day in his life. Now you might say you don't like that but guess what, the people on the doors know this already.

I was on a canvass at Tesco a few days ago and there are plenty of retired public servants in that area and they all know this. These people ate not stupid.

Look - who knows what will happen but David is do extremely well on the doors - better than before but we also know humpty dumpty would get a core FF vote if put forward. .

Agree with most of that - I know David and have voted for him under FF last 2 times, I am sure he will remember a specific question I asked him when he does call....certainly now as an independent!!

I really do hope he gets in, I am certainly not anti-him. I fear he may fall just short that's all.

chucknorris

AGC wrote: »

Agree with most of that - I know David and have voted for him under FF last 2 times, I am sure he will remember a specific question I asked him when he does call....certainly now as an independent!!

I really do hope he gets in, I am certainly not anti-him. I fear he may fall just short that's all.

As a young family man, turning 30 in July, he ticks a lot of boxes for some.

I honestly and truly cannot see where Chambers gets the votes that Lenihan got in Blanch, Mulhuddart and so forth that gave him the 4th seat in 2011. And at 16.5% of the vote then, he did well to get that last seat. Everyone knew Brian was very unwell too.

This time is harder. Chambers is no Lenihan and he doesn't have a sweeper that Lenihan had in 2011 (McGuinness). FF opinion polls have not improved and are the same level as they were in 2011 for Dublin. Add that to the fact that Sinn fein are stronger than they ever were in Dublin west and that Independents are strong in Dublin opinion polls consistently, not to mention that the only prominent Independent in Dublin west is David and he was dumped, all chip at a FF vote as I see it.

I don't factor SF or Socialist votes in there as David never challenged for those in all fairness.

ThisRegard

I don't think Burton would lose her seat.

chucknorris

ThisRegard wrote: »

I don't think Burton would lose her seat.

If she keeps it, David McGuinness and jack lose out. It's really that simple.

chucknorris

Just seen this.

https://twitter.com/PlastererPaddy/status/694906005851893760

holly_johnson

chucknorris wrote: »

As a young family man, turning 30 in July, he ticks a lot of boxes for some.

I honestly and truly cannot see where Chambers gets the votes that Lenihan got in Blanch, Mulhuddart and so forth that gave him the 4th seat in 2011. And at 16.5% of the vote then, he did well to get that last seat. Everyone knew Brian was very unwell too.

This time is harder. Chambers is no Lenihan and he doesn't have a sweeper that Lenihan had in 2011 (McGuinness). FF opinion polls have not improved and are the same level as they were in 2011 for Dublin. Add that to the fact that Sinn fein are stronger than they ever were in Dublin west and that Independents are strong in Dublin opinion polls consistently, not to mention that the only prominent Independent in Dublin west is David and he was dumped, all chip at a FF vote as I see it.

I don't factor SF or Socialist votes in there as David never challenged for those in all fairness.

I agree to a certain extent, but I'm afraid that Chambers might do well based on the Daddy vote. Certainly I haven't seen him canvassing but I have seen Daddy making the most of his FF connections. Sickens me.

angryIreGamer

holly_johnson wrote: »

I agree to a certain extent, but I'm afraid that Chambers might do well based on the Daddy vote. Certainly I haven't seen him canvassing but I have seen Daddy making the most of his FF connections. Sickens me.

He has personally been to mine. Could well be a case of him sticking to areas hes comfortable in too though.

angryIreGamer

chucknorris wrote: »

Just seen this.

https://twitter.com/PlastererPaddy/status/694906005851893760

The next tweet about chambers there is far more interesting.

Godge

chucknorris wrote: »

If she keeps it, David McGuinness and jack lose out. It's really that simple.

I am not so sure. I have thinking about the changes to the constituency and reconsidering the effects.

Bringing in the Navan Road and losing the part around Swords could change the constituency. In other areas they are saying losing the Navan Road hurts FF and FG in Dublin Central and adding the bit around Swords helps Clare Daly in Dublin Fingal. If that is true, those changes benefit FF/FG and hit Coppinger in Dublin West.

It is possible that Varadkar could have enough to bring in Burton especially if she stays ahead of Noone, as I would expect. Even if not, there could well be a seat for the established parties between Chambers, Noone and Burton. If Chambers is as bad as you lot say, he could just end up as a sweeper for FG/Labour.

Donnelly will have around three--quarters of a quota, he will pick up enough to get there in the end. I also think he will poll more strongly than Coppinger.

That would leave the final seat between McGuinness and Coppinger with transfers deciding it. The biggest problem for McGuinness will be staying in the contest long enough. He will pick up transfers but if he is eliminated too early that won't matter.

The fascinating thing is that this could all change as the election pans out.

athtrasna

chucknorris wrote: »

Just seen this.

https://twitter.com/PlastererPaddy/status/694906005851893760

Illegally low by the look of it. Think the bottom of the poster has to be 2m off the ground or thereabouts, that one is eye level and a law suit waiting to happen...

smallerthanyou

I'm relatively young but just can't imagine voting for a 22 year old with limited life experience to form opinions of his own. I'm sure he has opinions, I just doubt they are his own. I think I'd give Mcguinness a preference though. Probably wouldn't have if he was still ff.

Sf and noone posters up at clonsilla train station this morning.

Zaph

Godge wrote: »

Donnelly will have around three--quarters of a quota, he will pick up enough to get there in the end.

This depresses me. Bad and all as it is having Ruth Coppinger as a TD, I always took some comfort from the fact that the electorate here never gave SF a look in. That seems to be changing quite quickly though.

athtrasna wrote: »

Illegally low by the look of it. Think the bottom of the poster has to be 2m off the ground or thereabouts, that one is eye level and a law suit waiting to happen...

Illegally low seems to be the default for a lot of the posters that are put up. Coppinger and her mob were the worst for it last time around iirc, but they certainly didn't have a monopoly on it.