Dublin West General Election - SEE MOD NOTE POST 19.

chucknorris

Arciphel wrote: »

One thing that I was surprised about was that the margin of the victory for Chambers was 2:1 - "Mr Chambers is understood to have received 88 out of the almost 130 eligible votes, with Mr McGuinness trailing with 48 votes." Now that to me sounds like there has been for a while a knowledge that they were never going to back McGuinness to be the candidate in the elections.

Correct. In fact in 2011 after Brian Lenihan died, David was 25 votes and so was Edward Mcmanus. David won on the flip of a coin to contest that by-election where he took 22% of the vote. So nothing has ever been easy.

Arciphel wrote: »

The stuff about Castleknock mafia etc is all pure hyperbole however - candidates in Mulhuddart use this line all the time, "vote for me, shur why would you vote for the lads in Castleknock". The hard done by lines about being from the wrong side of the tracks etc as an attempt to get some support also rankle with me, if you are good enough then it doesn't matter where you from.

Correct. The term is used by people who are in political circles. No one else outside of those curcles would know or care about that stuff.

Arciphel wrote: »

Correct me if I am wrong but as I understand it David no longer works in the Corduff area and no longer lives there either, now the fact that he has done a lot of work in the area and represents the people there is fine - but I think nowadays people want more from their TDs than just parish pump politics, that is what county councillors are for.

Correct. David bought a house and lives in Tyrrelstown with his partner and son. He works in Donaghmede.

He does a lot of representative work for people in Corduff, Blanchardstown, Hartstown, castleknock Mulhuddart, Clonee, Clonsilla etc. He would have to now take on commitments for the Navan road also.

Arciphel wrote: »

The stuff about the daddy doesn't surprise me in the least, Ireland in 2015 still the same as it ever was... would now fully expect McGuinness to capture a higher vote as an independent and get a seat.

Correct. I believe there is a hugh middle of the road vote there to be earned and worked for.

dodzy

Gaspode wrote: »

I know I should be more interested in politics but that sort of crap ^^ reminds me why I'm not.
Nepotism, backhanders, backstabbing, lies and deceit are part and parcel of the 'game' politicos play, and see as the norm.
Then we're expected to trust these goons to run the country? There are not many jobs out there where the candidates have no training to do the job, no qualifications are expected of them, and if they make a balls of it (which they generally do) there are no consequences for them. Even the ones with a known track record of messing up or taking bribes can still be put up for election. And yet being a TD supposed to be the one of the most important jobs in the country?

The way I see it, it doesn't matter who is in government, they don't give two hoots about me or this country, they're there to line their own pockets and sort out their buddies/family as well. Nothing changes when the government changes so picking faces on a ballot sheet may as well be done blindfolded from what I've seen since I started voting in the 80s.

BTW, I'm only reading this thread because I'm a mod here - I know it's of great interest to a lot of you, but it's just getting me annoyed!

Jeez Gaspode, why don't you just say how you feel and stop beating around the bush

ThisRegard

athtrasna wrote: »

Surprised and not surprised at the same time. McGuinness has put all the hard work in over the last decade and has been screwed over by his own Party.

This I agree with, I've no idea who Chambers is, his name has never come up on my radar locally. I know McGuinness has done a local work in the community and wasn't he runner up last time around ? It's bizarre.

oblivious

Wow I can't believe they went with chambers, David was the only possible reason I would ever vote FF again. He works hard in the community with a good track record.

chucknorris

Is there an appetite for a strong independent representative?

Some T.D's are hands off representatives. They go to the Dail and do what ever it is they do in there,

Would it be good, bad or indifferent to have a T.D who is hands on locally as a T.D?

ThisRegard

oblivious wrote: »

David was the only possible reason I would ever vote FF again. He works hard in the community with a good track record.

I would think this is true for a lot of people, and I think it has been massively underestimated by the party.

January

chucknorris wrote: »

Is there an appetite for a strong independent representative?

Some T.D's are hands off representatives. They go to the Dail and do what ever it is they do in there,

Would it be good, bad or indifferent to have a T.D who is hands on locally as a T.D?

I think everyone is looking for a hands on TD sure what's the point otherwise.

chucknorris

January wrote: »

I think everyone is looking for a hands on TD sure what's the point otherwise.

I might offend some people by asking and suggesting otherwise, but here goes regarding existing TDs.

Leo is not hands on locally, although I think he is an excellent and honest politician. He does not do the constituency stuff and doesn't wander in to local authority estates. he has his base and he'll stick to the hands off approach.

Joan is definitely not in to the local stuff. She has been a career politician for a long time, but certainly not hands on.

The two socialist TDs in Dublin west are also hands off the individual stuff. They do the big ticket protest items as opposed to the 101 day to day items, but again, they have a support based on the big protest agenda.

January

chucknorris wrote: »

I might offend some people by asking and suggesting otherwise, but here goes regarding existing TDs.

Leo is not hands on locally, although I think he is an excellent and honest politician. He does not do the constituency stuff and doesn't wander in to local authority estates. he has his base and he'll stick to the hands off approach.

Joan is definitely not in to the local stuff. She has been a career politician for a long time, but certainly not hands on.

The two socialist TDs in Dublin west are also hands off the individual stuff. They do the big ticket protest items as opposed to the 101 day to day items, but again, they have a support based on the big protest agenda.

I don't think that's necessarily true of Ruth Coppinger anyway (and what I'm about to say doesn't mean I support her either), I know she helped a friend greatly in getting a house from the council when she was made homeless before Christmas. I will preface that by saying it was during the time coming up to the by-election so there could have been some hidden agenda there but she helped.

I haven't heard anything from her since then though.

ThisRegard

January wrote: »

I don't think that's necessarily true of Ruth Coppinger anyway .........was during the time coming up to the by-election so there could have been some hidden agenda there but she helped.

I haven't heard anything from her since then though.

I think you answered your own question. She was forever around telling people in my area not to pay their management fees, come election, I don't think the idea of them even crossed her mind.

She's as self serving as they come, in my opinion.

chucknorris

January, the same thing happened during the 2011 by-election. There was a Blanch hospital campaign created during the build up to the by-election by the socialists. It was dubbed the issue of the election, with demo's, public meetings, protests etc to save the hospital.

They never engaged in it again since.

That's not good enough as far as I'm concerned, but the electorate don't really see this for what it is.

Larbre34

chucknorris wrote: »

Is there an appetite for a strong independent representative?

Some T.D's are hands off representatives. They go to the Dail and do what ever it is they do in there,

Would it be good, bad or indifferent to have a T.D who is hands on locally as a T.D?

Absolutely, and certainly for one to the right of Karl Marx.

Patrick Nulty had some of that sort of profile, albeit he was on the left flank of Labour, then out of it, then took leave of his senses.

A pragmatic centrist with a good base and local origins, not under a whip, would improve the mix locally i feel.

Murt10

Vote FF!!!

Hell will freeze over before I ever vote for that crowd again.

Mickey Martin, who sat at the Cabinet table all through the Celtic Tiger and the destruction of the Country, still at the head of the party. Things have changed !!! Really????

The party should have dissolved and started again, or at the very least completely culled their leadership.

I hope in the next election that the people of Dublin give FF the same number of TDs as they have right now.

FF... F Off

Godge

chucknorris wrote: »

That's politics for you. It's ruthless.

David will need to take stock of a few things before making any rash decisions. Running in a general election is not only demanding, it's also expensive.

Essentially the work he does and did day to day since he was elected to the local council in 2009, at the age of 22, was basically him and him alone from a day to day point of view. In the by-election last year, none of the Castleknock FF membership (Or the Deerpark mafia as we know them :-), would assist the by-election campaign. They played the long game, by only canvassing and dropping leaflets for JC in the locals, with the hope that a strong enough vote in the Castleknock LEA would set-up a situation that happened last night at convention.

What occurred last night is something that was feared might happen.

There was and still is an opinion that Humpty Dumpty could run in castleknock for FF and command 2500 to 3000 votes. Outside Castleknock is a different proposition and that's where the real battle ground will be won and lost.

Personally I think a strong Independent would be in demand in large swaths of Dublin west, so who knows.

At 28, McGuinness has a long future ahead of him. Shouldn't make rash decisions. If FF don't take a seat in Dublin West next time out, he is in prime position to say "I told you so" and given the possible instability in the next government, it mightn't be five years before he gets another chance.

Godge

chucknorris wrote: »

I might offend some people by asking and suggesting otherwise, but here goes regarding existing TDs.

Leo is not hands on locally, although I think he is an excellent and honest politician. He does not do the constituency stuff and doesn't wander in to local authority estates. he has his base and he'll stick to the hands off approach.

Joan is definitely not in to the local stuff. She has been a career politician for a long time, but certainly not hands on.

The two socialist TDs in Dublin west are also hands off the individual stuff. They do the big ticket protest items as opposed to the 101 day to day items, but again, they have a support based on the big protest agenda.

Isn't that a good thing though?

Shouldn't we be electing county councillors for the small everyday things and electing TDs to legislate and debate the big issues and not get involved in who is getting a medical card or local authority house?

chucknorris

Godge wrote: »

Isn't that a good thing though?

Shouldn't we be electing county councillors for the small everyday things and electing TDs to legislate and debate the big issues and not get involved in who is getting a medical card or local authority house?

Yep, I agree with you. I'm not really referring to those Councillor level issues. D15 is a town in its self with a population in the region of 100,000 people.

I just wonder if the elected TD's should also have a hands on approach to big issues in Dublin west that are not essentially national issues.

oblivious

chucknorris wrote: »

Yep, I agree with you. I'm not really referring to those Councillor level issues. D15 is a town in its self with a population in the region of 100,000 people.

I just wonder if the elected TD's should also have a hands on approach to big issues in Dublin west that are not essentially national issues.

There is a chance that the next government will be FG and Independents, just saying

wardie101

http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/mcguinness-critical-of-ff-candidate-selection-31026268.html

chucknorris

wardie101 wrote: »

http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/mcguinness-critical-of-ff-candidate-selection-31026268.html

Essentially members votes were 'secured'. Not only that, their membership was renewed and paid for by a prominent individual and more.

Of course I've to be careful in what I say.

oblivious

chucknorris wrote: »

Essentially members votes were 'secured'. Not only that, their membership was renewed and paid for by a prominent individual and more.

Of course I've to be careful in what I say.

Why even have the vote, it looks like he could never win

chucknorris

oblivious wrote: »

Why even have the vote, it looks like he could never win

You have to let them shaft you. Give them the rope.

The people that voted against him, refused to assist him in the by-election last year. Instead they worked to get their man as high as they could in votes to allow what happened on Wednesday to happen.

IN that process last year, they could have brought Edward McManus over the line, but shafted him too. Edward left the party soon after and joined Sinn Fein.

During the by-election, the chambers camp had more local election posters on polls than any of the by-election candidates such is the resources available.

The real interesting thing was, what the Chamebrs crew received from the Castleknock LEA, was identical to what David McGuinness received in the same area, at the same time, in the by-election.

That tells you the FF vote is fairly even at around 2650 votes in that area. The question is, will they lose any of that vote in the GE?

Sid7

Politics is a dirty game, if he can’t take it, he should play another game. He lost. He knew it was a dirty game before he signed up to enter Poiltics. That's the way it goes. He should stop crying and move on.

chucknorris

Sid7 wrote: »

Politics is a dirty game, if he can’t take it, he should play another game. He lost. He knew it was a dirty game before he signed up to enter Poiltics. That's the way it goes. He should stop crying and move on.

I think he is moving on.

Sid7

chucknorris wrote: »

I think he is moving on.

Good luck to him. He's a young man. He's hard working, though that should be expected. I'm sure he will go Independant. Something he probably should have done long ago. FF wanted Chambers and that's the bottom line.

ThisRegard

ChuckNorris has never hid who he is. And you may notice that it's mostly 'normal' people voicing their bemusement.

Ive been keeping an eye on all the general muppetry that goes on behind the scenes in D15 politics, particularly on Facebook and Twitter, and the tone of your post is strangely familiar.

Put your money where your mouth is and tell us who you are, or are you just happy mud slinging with nothing constructive to add to the discussion?



Edit, dang it and my slow typing, I'm sure the person involved knows who the post was aimed at.

Arciphel

Well I saw the post when it was still there, and I'm fairly sure the person who posted it said who they were?

Zaph

They did. However they also breached the site's Terms of Use regarding the naming of other posters, so the post was removed.

ThisRegard

Did they name themselves? If so, don't know how I missed it.

Rosser

Does anyone know if Edward McManus has now joined SF? Unlikely move but I'm certain I saw him in a picture of a canvassing team around Carpenterstown.

Zaph

Rosser wrote: »

Does anyone know if Edward McManus has now joined SF? Unlikely move but I'm certain I saw him in a picture of a canvassing team around Carpenterstown.

Yeah, chucknorris mentioned that he joined them in this post.

chucknorris

Edward worked hard in the locals and didn't receive any support from what he thought was his own supporters (as in local party members).

When Edward decided not to renew his membership, a fair number of members also did the same. The local party was parachuted with a hefty number of new people.

The final thing about that, before I move on to different matter is as follows:

http://www.independent.ie/opinion/columnists/eoghan-harris/fgs-binary-strategy-is-bad-for-our-democracy-31030753.html

"Fianna Fail's lack of bottle for battle was shown at the selection conference in Dublin West. The clear choice should have been Councillor David McGuinness, a young fighter from a working-class area who flew the Fianna Fail flag during dark days and kept Sinn Fein under pressure.

But the convention chose Jack Chambers, a medical student from posh Castleknock.

Fianna Fail delegates wanted their own doctor, their own media-friendly Leo Vardakar. My hunch is that both Fine Gael and Fianna Fail will be disappointed."

FalconGirl

How is Chambers going to represent the people of Dublin West to the best of his ability while he is in medical school? To put it simply he wont be able to. He'll be an absent T.D. in the unlikely event he is elected.

Utter bull****, I despise FF but from the outside can see how hard McGuinness works and really feel for the chap. He deserved his 2016 shot. If that failed they should have lined a graduated Chambers up for 2021.

holly_johnson

In noticed that McGuinness' sticky poster has been scraped off the window of his proposed clinic office in the old AIB in main street. Has he decided whether to leave FF?

I missed his interview on the radio the other day, must see if I can find a link to the podcast, I'd love to listen to it.

Very surprised re Jack Chambers getting the nod. When he called to my door for the local elections, he was very poor at demonstrating knowledge of Blanchardstown issues, the Fingal CoCo Development plan for the village or his intentions for office other than the reduction in property tax. When I questioned him re FF & the past, he stuttered and had no answer. An older man (his Dad?) stepped in to try & save his bacon, but the damage was well done.

A weak and immature candidate IMO and if he's still studying in college how on earth does he think he can also work the hours required to be a TD?

Not that I'm a FF voter, just thought it was interesting.

Morag

http://www.dublinpeople.com/article.php?id=4618&l=100

"POPULAR FIanna Fail councillor David McGuinness believes he was “shafted” by a core bunch of Fianna Fail members at last week’s party convention to select a candidate for the next general election."

wildlifeboy

holly_johnson wrote: »

In noticed that McGuinness' sticky poster has been scraped off the window of his proposed clinic office in the old AIB in main street. Has he decided whether to leave FF?

I missed his interview on the radio the other day, must see if I can find a link to the podcast, I'd love to listen to it.

Very surprised re Jack Chambers getting the nod. When he called to my door for the local elections, he was very poor at demonstrating knowledge of Blanchardstown issues, the Fingal CoCo Development plan for the village or his intentions for office other than the reduction in property tax. When I questioned him re FF & the past, he stuttered and had no answer. An older man (his Dad?) stepped in to try & save his bacon, but the damage was well done.

A weak and immature candidate IMO and if he's still studying in college how on earth does he think he can also work the hours required to be a TD?

Not that I'm a FF voter, just thought it was interesting.

couldnt have put it better myself...its laughable but i am VERY glad they chose him because theres no chance in hell he'll get in. i too questioned him in detail on various topics. i laughed him off my doorstep.

Grudaire

wildlifeboy wrote: »

couldnt have put it better myself...its laughable but i am VERY glad they chose him because theres no chance in hell he'll get in. i too questioned him in detail on various topics. i laughed him off my doorstep.

Unfortunately there's every chance he'll be elected. There's a lot of strong candidates in the constituency, and transfers ate hard won.

Unless voters decide to transfer to Joan i think he'll get in comfortably.

wildlifeboy

Grudaire wrote: »

Unfortunately there's every chance he'll be elected. There's a lot of strong candidates in the constituency, and transfers ate hard won.

Unless voters decide to transfer to Joan i think he'll get in comfortably.

but he's fianna fail, are there many that many dumbass's in D15? Surely not! If Fianna Fail get in I am never voting again. Are people really that stupid? do tyhey not have any memory? do they liked being robbed blind, lied to shafted? I dont

chucknorris

holly_johnson wrote: »

In noticed that McGuinness' sticky poster has been scraped off the window of his proposed clinic office in the old AIB in main street. Has he decided whether to leave FF?

I missed his interview on the radio the other day, must see if I can find a link to the podcast, I'd love to listen to it.

Very surprised re Jack Chambers getting the nod. When he called to my door for the local elections, he was very poor at demonstrating knowledge of Blanchardstown issues, the Fingal CoCo Development plan for the village or his intentions for office other than the reduction in property tax. When I questioned him re FF & the past, he stuttered and had no answer. An older man (his Dad?) stepped in to try & save his bacon, but the damage was well done.

A weak and immature candidate IMO and if he's still studying in college how on earth does he think he can also work the hours required to be a TD?

Not that I'm a FF voter, just thought it was interesting.

Clinics will be confined to resource centers in respective communities as the resources to keep the office open are impossible under the circumstances.

He has a lot of soul searching to do. It was a right kick in the teeth last week.

holly_johnson

chucknorris wrote: »

Clinics will be confined to resource centers in respective communities as the resources to keep the office open are impossible under the circumstances.

He has a lot of soul searching to do. It was a right kick in the teeth last week.

Oh I bet he does. Not surprised he can't afford the rent on the place now, although I presumed he signed a lease.

It's a strange state of affairs. Kind of proves that FF are running scared with a year to go. It'll be interesting to see how young Chambers attempts to raise his profile outside of leafy Castleknock into Blanch village and the rest of the constituency.

The constituency is becoming more and more Castleknock biased. If you exclude SF & AAA (which I thoroughly intend to do), Varadkar, Coughlan (please God no), Chambers et al from the more mainstream parties are all from that area. Makes it pretty plain whose votes matter to these parties and that they think all of the rest of us are a bunch of "radical" loons.

chucknorris

holly_johnson wrote: »

Oh I bet he does. Not surprised he can't afford the rent on the place now, although I presumed he signed a lease.

It's a strange state of affairs. Kind of proves that FF are running scared with a year to go. It'll be interesting to see how young Chambers attempts to raise his profile outside of leafy Castleknock into Blanch village and the rest of the constituency.

The constituency is becoming more and more Castleknock biased. If you exclude SF & AAA (which I thoroughly intend to do), Varadkar, Coughlan (please God no), Chambers et al from the more mainstream parties are all from that area. Makes it pretty plain whose votes matter to these parties and that they think all of the rest of us are a bunch of "radical" loons.

I genuinely think there is a spot in the GE for a middle of the road independent to run. You hit the nail on the head in that there are two to the very right (that the decision dictated), in FF and FG and two to the very left in SF and socialists.

Labour is a hard one to work out. Might people go back to Burton to avoid going so far to the left and refuse to go so far to the right?

AGC

holly_johnson wrote: »

The constituency is becoming more and more Castleknock biased. If you exclude SF & AAA (which I thoroughly intend to do), Varadkar, Coughlan (please God no), Chambers et al from the more mainstream parties are all from that area. Makes it pretty plain whose votes matter to these parties and that they think all of the rest of us are a bunch of "radical" loons.

Coppinger got in over McGuinness and she got a large Castleknock vote.

Chambers is IMO a good candidate and the people saying he is still in college etc... I believe his plan is to take a break if elected.

To be honest, regardless of party it is good to see someone come through who is confident enough at his age. The constituency has been dominated by the same group (except Coppinger) for long enough now.

chucknorris

AGC wrote: »

Coppinger got in over McGuinness and she got a large Castleknock vote.

Chambers is IMO a good candidate and the people saying he is still in college etc... I believe his plan is to take a break if elected.

To be honest, regardless of party it is good to see someone come through who is confident enough at his age. The constituency has been dominated by the same group (except Coppinger) for long enough now.

Not true. Chambers plans on pulling out of his studies now, after his father paid for him to enter the college of surgeons. He is giving them up before completing them and taking it as a given that he has the seat in the bag based on the relative success of the previous FF candidate, coupled with his own.

It's risky, but if you don't have to worry about money, like most of the electorate do, then it's a risk you really should have the confidence to take all day long.

PS: If McGuinness does decide to run in he GE, only he and Varadkar will be candidates who are born and bred in the Dublin west constituency. That won't be important to everyone, but it will be a factor for some. O'Gormon could be a possible other.

The only unknown is, Chambers never pulled a vote out of Mulhuddart as he never ran in al election in Mulhuddart and under the current left climate, it's a big risk.

wildlifeboy

holly_johnson wrote: »

Oh I bet he does. Not surprised he can't afford the rent on the place now, although I presumed he signed a lease.

It's a strange state of affairs. Kind of proves that FF are running scared with a year to go. It'll be interesting to see how young Chambers attempts to raise his profile outside of leafy Castleknock into Blanch village and the rest of the constituency.

The constituency is becoming more and more Castleknock biased. If you exclude SF & AAA (which I thoroughly intend to do), Varadkar, Coughlan (please God no), Chambers et al from the more mainstream parties are all from that area. Makes it pretty plain whose votes matter to these parties and that they think all of the rest of us are a bunch of "radical" loons.

Varadkars from Roselawn Road which is certainly not Castleknock

ThisRegard

AGC wrote: »

Coppinger got in over McGuinness and she got a large Castleknock vote.

Chambers is IMO a good candidate and the people saying he is still in college etc... I believe his plan is to take a break if elected.

To be honest, regardless of party it is good to see someone come through who is confident enough at his age. The constituency has been dominated by the same group (except Coppinger) for long enough now.

He has no life experience to represent me anyway, in fact I'd say he has led a pretty closeted life.

January

Chambers is the furthest thing from a good candidate.

rockatansky

chucknorris wrote: »

Not true. Chambers plans on pulling out of his studies now, after his father paid for him to enter the college of surgeons. He is giving them up before completing them and taking it as a given that he has the seat in the bag based on the relative success of the previous FF candidate, coupled with his own.

It's risky, but if you don't have to worry about money, like most of the electorate do, then it's a risk you really should have the confidence to take all day long.

PS: If McGuinness does decide to run in he GE, only he and Varadkar will be candidates who are born and bred in the Dublin west constituency. That won't be important to everyone, but it will be a factor for some. O'Gormon could be a possible other.

The only unknown is, Chambers never pulled a vote out of Mulhuddart as he never ran in al election in Mulhuddart and under the current left climate, it's a big risk.

What relevance is it who paid for him to go to College?

rockatansky

ThisRegard wrote: »

He has no life experience to represent me anyway, in fact I'd say he has led a pretty closeted life.

I'm sorry but what exactly are you basing this on. Do you know him personally?

Can you define exactly what life experiences is required to represent you?

wildlifeboy

rockatansky wrote: »

I'm sorry but what exactly are you basing this on. Do you know him personally?

Can you define exactly what life experiences is required to represent you?

yeah more than 6 years over the voting age would be a good start

rockatansky

wildlifeboy wrote: »

yeah more than 6 years over the voting age would be a good start

Great, so next year he'll be ok so. Have you ruled out any other candidates based on age?

wildlifeboy

rockatansky wrote: »

Great, so next year he'll ok so. Have you ruled out any other candidates based on age also?

I ruled him out because he is standing for a party of Back stabbing pricks:pac: