Dublin West General Election - SEE MOD NOTE POST 19.

Larbre34

AGC wrote: »

Vincent Browne next week will be a different story.

It wont be Vinnie, he's ill and taking the GE off.

chucknorris

This image backs up exactly how I see things.

Independent support is probably stronger than this Labour may fall even more.

If this transpires to be the case, David McGuinness will receive more transfers than Ruth from the Labour party.

A strong showing from David on Vincent Browne may be the key.

PS: This east and west of the M50 is bizarre as a measurement.

gabsdot40

I got a Paul Donnelly flier flier through the door. It claims he topped the poll in the 2014 by election. Ruth Coppinger won that by election. How can Donnelly claim he topped the poll?
Genuinely curious

chucknorris

gabsdot40 wrote: »

I got a Paul Donnelly flier flier through the door. It claims he topped the poll in the 2014 by election. Ruth Coppinger won that by election. How can Donnelly claim he topped the poll?
Genuinely curious

He received the most first preferences. He lost out due to being less transfer friendly.

Gaspode

chucknorris wrote: »

PS: This east and west of the M50 is bizarre as a measurement.

East of the M50 is a small proportion of the constituency population so a bizarre measure alright. It's just Castleknock, parts of Ashtown and the Phoenix park.

oblivious

Gaspode wrote: »

East of the M50 is a small proportion of the constituency population so a bizarre measure alright. It's just Castleknock, parts of Ashtown and the Phoenix park.

possibly why chambers polled so well

Godge

chucknorris wrote: »

PS: This east and west of the M50 is bizarre as a measurement.

Gaspode wrote: »

East of the M50 is a small proportion of the constituency population so a bizarre measure alright. It's just Castleknock, parts of Ashtown and the Phoenix park.

When it shows such differences between the two ends of the constituency, it is hardly bizarre.

Given the maths, it obviously used less people to the east of the M50 which as Gaspode points out is a smaller part of the constituency.

However, the fact that they were using the measure makes me wonder whether the poll was representative or not, i.e. if the west of the M50 used votes from Mulhuddart/Corduff and not from Blanchardstown/Clonsilla the overall poll may not be representative.

chucknorris

oblivious wrote: »

possibly why chambers polled so well

Most likely, however that now sets a narrative. I hope that narrative does not stick. Whatever way it goes, I believe Joan is damaged beyond repair.

That 4th seat is all to play for.

holly_johnson

chucknorris wrote: »

PS: This east and west of the M50 is bizarre as a measurement.

I think it's a veiled way of polling supposed "wealthy middle class" areas vs "poorer working class" areas. Would love to know who got polled, I don't know anyone who was and I live in Blanch village.

Past30Now

chucknorris wrote: »

Most likely, however that now sets a narrative. I hope that narrative does not stick. Whatever way it goes, I believe Joan is damaged beyond repair.

That 4th seat is all to play for.

Chambers still has a long way to go before he crosses the line. He's very young and inexperienced, and every candidate will get plenty of opportunities to point this fact out over the coming fortnight. There was 14% undecided on that poll this morning, and my guess is that if you were inclined to vote for Coppinger your mind would be made up by now. The likely beneficiaries are the more established parties, which will confirm Varadkar if he's not already across the line, assist Chambers and may even help Burton. That should probably be enough to get Chambers across the line.

This mornings poll is a great boost to McGuinness. He now knows for certain that he's in this contest. He'll be transfer friendly from all sides of the electorate.

My guess is that both Burton and McGuinness will be a lot closer to Coppinger by the time the polls open, and closer still by the time any Varadkar/Donnelly surplus is distributed and the second preferences of the eliminated candidates (Clare, Noone, O'Gorman etc) are distributed. The key is not to be in third place between those three at that stage. If McGuinness is third, I'd suggest that any lead Coppinger has over Burton will be enough to see her (Coppinger) home. If Burton is third, Coppinger would need a significant lead to hold off McGuinness. In the unlikely event that Coppinger finishes third, I can't see Burton staying ahead of McGuinness.

Joan being damaged beyond repair seems a correct assertion.

Bookies (paddypower) have Coppinger as odds on, Burton evens, and McGuinness a long shot. I hope they are wrong.

rockatansky

Zaph wrote: »

You only have to look at her election posters to see this. While everyone else's is the usual bland, inoffensive headshot, the picture on Coppinger's posters makes her look like she's about to launch into another of her shrill tirades. You'd have thought they'd have been able to find a better picture, wouldn't you?

Think she's trying to let people know that she's as angry about things as they are. It sort of reminds me of when I was a kid and used to see Claire Dalys elections posters around the place. They were always dull grey and she had a big miserable head on her. If you looked at them too long you became despondent very quickly. Seems to be common with the smaller parties and independent left, look either angry, miserable, or pretend you're standing outside a big factory with a megaphone in your hand shouting into a crowd of disgruntled employees.

AGC

PP certainly reacted to the opinion poll with Chambers into 1/7 and Joan going to evens

Grudaire

I think the poll is not reliable, I can't see the postmaster candidate outpole an active, and reasonably well known councillor like Roderic. Also Renua not included in the poll. (Do we know who sponsored the poll?)

Dartz

I don't even know who any of these people are anymore.

Swan Curry

Canvasser for Jack Chambers told a friend that she should vote for him because he's good looking. I hope he thinks more of women than his canvasser does.

Grudaire

Dartz wrote:

I don't even know who any of these people are anymore.

In fairness most of the candidates (especially those in contention) have stood in the constituency several times.

chucknorris

I know i'll be called biased for repeating it, but Independent support is above Labour and if that does increase as we near the election and independent support gets even closer to the AAA, Labour's transfers will be key.

Gaspode

Well I think we all already know you are biased Chuck!

hardCopy

I thought that poll really really hampered Joan Burton on the leaders' debate last night.

The others were talking party policy but she opened by talking about her own upbringing. Then Pat Kenny questioned her on the poll and later when discussing health she told us how she had delivered three primary care centres in her own constituency. I think it was the only time any leader mentioned their constituency.

chucknorris

Gaspode wrote: »

Well I think we all already know you are biased Chuck!

This is true but the feeling is based on how the polling is going.

When the polls first came out, AAA were odds on for the 3rd seat. Now they are in for the 4th seat. Joan was in for the 4th seat, she is now odds even on PP.

Momentum!

ThisRegard

Swan Curry wrote: »

Canvasser for Jack Chambers told a friend that she should vote for him because he's good looking. I hope he thinks more of women than his canvasser does.

Is this what they mean by getting women more involved in politics?

AlanG

Larbre34 wrote: »

That may be the most moronic thing I've ever read on boards. And I browse After Hours...

Please explain what part is moronic.

It is a fact that Adams facilitated child abuse within his own family at least as much as the church hierarchy that SF used to condemn so freely. You do know his brother was convicted of child abuse and Adams moved him around to protect the party. Do you think the conviction was wrong? Adams claimed he was going to take legal action against the papers who printed that he knew about the abuse but he never did - I wonder why?

It is also a fact that if this poll was taken in the wealthier parts of the constituency then SF have a good chance of topping the poll.

Perhaps you just think it is moronic that a person would be concerned that large parts of the electorate still don't care about child abuse. That is how the church got away with it for so long and it seems there may be parts of a new generation with the same attitude.

So let me know what is moronic about my concerns and why you are not concerned about Adams covering up of his brothers child abuse.

AlanG

O'Gorman was at Castleknock station on his own this morning. Seems like a good guy and is certainly putting in a lot of work considering he hasn't a chance. It's got to be tough to campaign alone without anyone to shield you from the nutters.

Larsso30

Wouldn't vote green but ogorman always comes off as a genuine nice guy.

I'm at a loss as to why chambers is polling so highly, really struggling to get head round it

handlemaster

What are the local candidates saying about crime ? What are they doing or going to do about it ?

AGC

handlemaster wrote: »

What are the local candidates saying about crime ? What are they doing or going to do about it ?

McGuinness made the point of the complete lack of resources and internal promotions to specialised units within AGS on the drivetime debate.

Chambers has spoken about the same lack of resources, FG/LAB are saying how they are recruiting Gardaí again, 600 a year and how Templemore has re-opened. They duck the closure of stations though.

handlemaster

AGC wrote: »

McGuinness made the point of the complete lack of resources and internal promotions to specialised units within AGS on the drivetime debate.

Chambers has spoken about the same lack of resources, FG/LAB are saying how they are recruiting Gardaí again, 600 a year and how Templemore has re-opened. They duck the closure of stations though.

Nothing about what happens when criminals are caught and the revolving door justice system we have in ireland.

AGC

handlemaster wrote: »

Nothing about what happens when criminals are caught and the revolving door justice system we have in ireland.

Nothing has happened with the last number of Governments and nothing will with any new government. You won't have anyone making promises on tougher sentencing. They might say they will look for it at best.

handlemaster

AGC wrote: »

Nothing has happened with the last number of Governments and nothing will with any new government. You won't have anyone making promises on tougher sentencing. They might say they will look for it at best.

Why is that ? Its surely what the people want these criminals off the streets for longer or permanently

Larbre34

AlanG wrote: »

Please explain what part is moronic.

It is a fact that Adams facilitated child abuse within his own family at least as much as the church hierarchy that SF used to condemn so freely. You do know his brother was convicted of child abuse and Adams moved him around to protect the party. Do you think the conviction was wrong? Adams claimed he was going to take legal action against the papers who printed that he knew about the abuse but he never did - I wonder why?

It is also a fact that if this poll was taken in the wealthier parts of the constituency then SF have a good chance of topping the poll.

Perhaps you just think it is moronic that a person would be concerned that large parts of the electorate still don't care about child abuse. That is how the church got away with it for so long and it seems there may be parts of a new generation with the same attitude.

So let me know what is moronic about my concerns and why you are not concerned about Adams covering up of his brothers child abuse.

Firstly, I've no time for Gerry Adams, for both his past associations or his economic beliefs.

Secondly, regardless of their policies, Sinn Féin would do much better to have got rid of Adams in advance of this election, in order to make a leap forward. Again, I wouldn't be voting for them, but their candidates deserve to compete and the voter will be the judge.

Thirdly, no one is responsible for the sins of the father (or brother) in this case. Family loyalty is often tested and people find themselves having to defend almost the indefensible at times, e.g. Michael Lowry, David Drumm etc

The candidate for Sinn Féin in Dublin West is Paul Donnelly, a man for whom I have no reason on this earthly world to suspect of being a risk to children. For you to casually fire out statements like "lock up your kids" in any context connected to the Sinn Féin party and/or candidates, is all of moronic, lazy and dangerous. Take your pick.