Dublin West General Election - SEE MOD NOTE POST 19.

January

ThisRegard wrote: »

I see on the news that she was there with a crew. I don't have an issue anyway, politicians will take whatever photo ops where ever they can.

It's ridiculous to say she doesn't care about children though.

I said she doesn't care about children with health issues and I'm not far wrong and the rest of the past government were the same. If they did give a jot then they wouldn't have made Crumlin hospital rebuild the hospital with donations from the public, or denied children with Down's Syndrome and cancer medical cards. 3 year long waiting lists to see a consultant or for occupational therapy, it's just not on.

ThisRegard

Everyone knows about the long term issues with the HSE, despite the money thrown at it (there's 2 nurses in my extended family, and a close friend in the HSE). It's extremely unfair to try pin them on any one member of the current government, particularly one from the minority party which never even had the health portfolio.

amdublin

January wrote: »

Joan Burton doesn't give a jot about children with health issues yet she used her time at the Centre today, with her camera crew, for a photo op with a charity who are trying desperately to raise awareness for Congenital Heart Defects.

Maybe you find nothing wrong with those pictures but as a parent with children with health issues I'm fuming mad. She's lucky it wasn't me down there fund raising today, and it nearly was, only I couldn't organise a sitter for the baby because she'd have been told (and in a nice way I'm not confrontational) to jog on.

I am sure she used her time at the towncentre today for a photo op with a load of other people too. I doubt she said let's go up, I hear HCI are there I'll get some photos with them. And what was she supposed to do just sweep past those kids??


Appreciate you have personal connections and there are sensitivities there but honestly I think you are way over thinking this. BUT I understand, I bet if I were in your shoes I would be too. I hope you have got or get your appointment soon.

handlemaster

Theres so many issues and self interests in having funding for one medical condition over another no government is going to be a winner.

January

handlemaster wrote: »

Theres so many issues and self interests in having funding for one medical condition over another no government is going to be a winner.

Oh no I do know that, believe me, I'm not only going on about congenital heart defects but all conditions. It's just at a ridiculous level country wide.

You are right though amdublin, I probably am over thinking it too much and a bit too emotionally involved to not be angered by it. When you have to wait three years to find out if your child could need quite a big surgery, it becomes all you think about. Thankfully yes, our appointment is coming up within the next couple of weeks and we will have some answers finally.

handlemaster

January wrote: »

Oh no I do know that, believe me, I'm not only going on about congenital heart defects but all conditions. It's just at a ridiculous level country wide.

You are right though amdublin, I probably am over thinking it too much and a bit too emotionally involved to not be angered by it. When you have to wait three years to find out if your child could need quite a big surgery, it becomes all you think about. Thankfully yes, our appointment is coming up within the next couple of weeks and we will have some answers finally.

The big socialist Gerry was flown to the USA for treatment . Im sure they have a plan on the back of the beer mat to do something similar with tax payer s money if they ever get in.

chucknorris

Anyone interested in info from the canvass over the weekend?

Past30Now

Chuck,

Keep us updated on stories from the campaign trail. There are a lot of people very interested in the election, even if they haven't got a particular leaning towards one candidate/party.

Past30

chucknorris

OK, This is just a muttering of things rather than solid info.

- First off, Sinn Fein's support is undeniable and it has the AAA extremely worried. It seems apparent now that enough of Labour's support from 2011 is now with SF and the Labour folks i spoke to at the churches confirmed as much.

- Catherine Noone is running a solo campaign. Her posters, if you look very carefully, have Varadkar rubbed out at the bottom of them. Her canvass team are non D15 based and their line is simple - Noone is more conservative than Varadkar so you can see where they are targeting.

- A bit of craic at the churches, to the extent that Labour canvassers were introducing David McGuinness as dublin wests Independent candidate. The church goers were enjoying it as they know the canvassers very well over the years.

- One superb conversation from a church going man at Laurel lodge. he came up to David's mother and said that Chambers team knocked on his door. His first line to them was 'you really got McGuinness didn't you' with a smile and their response was 'yea we got him good', to which this man replied 'wrong answer' and shut the door in their face. Justice served.

- Word came back also from laurel lodge that a regular reader here was inquiring who Chuck Norris was. I can assure you - chuck wasn't at laurel lodge

- Something a little more serious. Last weeks poll is being dismissed by all quarters as a ready up. People in a few parties have a suspicion as to who commissioned the poll and in particular the SF party machine are adamant that FF are not on 17% by any means. Some suspect Labour are responsible for the poll to galvanise their support base.

- Newstalk are not totally ruling out an independent seat and the secret is out - David is doing very well. https://www.newstalk.com/election2016/Dublin-West

Larsso30

No Offence to any, but cant understand the clamour for Chambers, hes achieved so little and doesnt speak!! Sounds like we are returning to the good old days of nepotisim!

*Ive no horse in this election in any way just to be clear.

JoyPad

chucknorris wrote: »

- Newstalk are not totally ruling out an independent seat and the secret is out - David is doing very well. https://www.newstalk.com/election2016/Dublin-West

How do they go from "Ruth Coppinger should retain the seat" to a possible result without her?

Kiwi_knock

JoyPad wrote: »

How do they go from "Ruth Coppinger should retain the seat" to a possible result without her?

I presume the independent they predict to get a seat is meant to be her.

chucknorris

JoyPad wrote: »

How do they go from "Ruth Coppinger should retain the seat" to a possible result without her?

A question I asked myself also. You see what you've got there is the conventional wisdom that because Joe Higgins was so popular and that Ruth won the recent by-election, that a seat should be safe. Then you think logically and know that SF are on the rise here in Dublin west, when usually poll 7%, but estimated to get 20% this time around.
Do the Shinners swap places with the AA/Socialists/PBP ? No one actually knows but that 13% increase is not coming from think air.

Conventional wisdom says FF will take a seat because it was the only Dublin constituency to return a TD in 2011 in the form of Brian Lenihan. Brian received 16.5% of the vote that time and lets be honest - Jack Chambers is not Brian Lenihan by any stretch but serious money and P.R is perhaps making up for a lack of experience so who knows? I don't and the media are still going with the conventional wisdom that FF will take a seat. The independent has again referred to Chambers as a medical graduate when we all know he is a medical college drop out and has not attended college in two years. Its like saying a 4th year secondary student is a leaving cert graduate.

What conventional wisdom seems to be ignoring is that Independent support in Dublin is between 26 and 32% give or take. Some people will simply not vote for any party. Who knows - I certainly don't but if 25% go Independent on election day in this constituency, who knows what will happen.

I think Newstalk are on the ball. They simply cannot ignore that the Independent candidate has ran in two dail elections and polled 21% and 18% respectively. I've said here a few times - he is retaining some of that support.

Can conventional wisdom apply in an election where the media seem to all unanimously think that a majority government cannot be formed. That means anything can happen.

chucknorris

Kiwi_knock wrote: »

I presume the independent they predict to get a seat is meant to be her.

Possibly yes but I know privately they are worried. They have lost 1000 votes from Swords, they don't get it back from the Navan road and they won't get any transfers from SF this time around so that's bad news and voters are there to be won by all who originally voted for Joe Higgins.

She will not be on the ballot paper as non party but as a party.

She may very well do it but no one actually knows.

Kiwi_knock

chucknorris wrote: »

Possibly yes but I know privately they are worried. They have lost 1000 votes from Swords, they don't get it back from the Navan road, they won't get any transfers from SF this time and voters are there to be won who originally voted for Joe Higgins.

She will not be on the ballot paper as non party.

She may very well do it.

I'm wrong, because I checked Dublin South-West on Newstalk and they have AAAPBP down as a party for Paul Murphy. So they must be referring to McGuinness as the independent.

chucknorris

Kiwi_knock wrote: »

I'm wrong, because I checked Dublin South-West on Newstalk and they have AAAPBP down as a party for Paul Murphy. So they must be referring to McGuinness as the independent.

Hopefully parties don't kop on as its getting to a time when an attack on him will be too late. His Social media has gone through the roof and although that in its self won't win an election, it is a tool that is handy when people won't answer doors on cold winter nights.

Vincent Browne is going to be interesting on Thursday. It can make or break a candidate.

Chambers was awful on RTE news last Friday. Every other candidate was filmed in their place of work while Jack had to be seen in a small bingo hall and his only generic line was 'People are gravitating back to Fianna fail'.

I don't think I ever gravitated in my life - unless it was coming out of the greyhound after Liverpool beat United

Anyway, the point being, as he appears on TV and heard on radio it becomes clear the lad is inexperienced. For die hard FF voters, that won't matter at all but he needs more than the core for the GE.

amdublin

People still go to mass these days???
People canvass outside church???

chucknorris

amdublin wrote: »

People still go to mass these days???
People canvass outside church???

Honestly, only the old fogies and they all vote. They are almost always party supporters but not yesterday. They are not happy.

Chardee MacDennis

chucknorris wrote: »

- One superb conversation from a church going man at Laurel lodge. he came up to David's mother and said that Chambers team knocked on his door. His first line to them was 'you really got McGuinness didn't you' with a smile and their response was 'yea we got him good', to which this man replied 'wrong answer' and shut the door in their face. Justice served.

i don't get it, coz McGuinness was a previous FF candidate?

chucknorris

Chardee MacDennis wrote: »

i don't get it, coz McGuinness was a previous FF candidate?

Yes but he was shafted by what remained of the local organisation in favor of the son of the chairman of FF in Dublin west. That was the point.

Gaspode

If Chambers were to get elected, would they vindicated then for removing David?

chucknorris

Gaspode wrote: »

If Chambers were to get elected, would they vindicated then for removing David?

Absolutely! All is well that ends well.

Past30Now

chucknorris wrote: »

Absolutely! All is well that ends well.

I've been thinking about the logic of that decision (from afar), and I think the logic was that they believed that they (FF DW) could have put up a plank of wood as a candidate in this election. and he/she/it would have come close to being elected. If DMCG had stood on the FF ticket, he'd be a shoe in for a seat, and in all probability would have retained the seat for the next couple of GE's, thus forcing JC to either stand as a second candidate, or to eventually move constituency. Instead they got rid of their incumbent challenger.

They made that call, and based on last weeks poll, look to be correct in their assertion. We'll see soon enough.

January

chucknorris wrote: »

Yes but he was shafted by what remained of the local organisation in favor of the son of the chairman of FF in Dublin west. That was the point.

Oh that's not what Jacks master told me when they were here the other week. Jack was voted as the candidate fair and square and that was that.

chucknorris

Past30Now wrote: »

I've been thinking about the logic of that decision (from afar), and I think the logic was that they believed that they (FF DW) could have put up a plank of wood as a candidate in this election. and he/she/it would have come close to being elected. If DMCG had stood on the FF ticket, he'd be a shoe in for a seat, and in all probability would have retained the seat for the next couple of GE's, thus forcing JC to either stand as a second candidate, or to eventually move constituency. Instead they got rid of their incumbent challenger.

They made that call, and based on last weeks poll, look to be correct in their assertion. We'll see soon enough.

You are correct. They wanted their man in once their was a sniff of a seat. David McGuinness was never their man - he was Brian Lenihans man.

RTE have absolutely dismissed that poll from last week and that's straight from sharon ni bheolain herself to us directly.
It's actually unclear who commissioned it and RTE would not reference it on 500 people.

Now, Maybe FF are on 17%, maybe they are on 20%, but the Shinners do very good polling form their canvasses and always do it very well. They have rubbished that FF are anywhere near 17%.

Who knows - I certainly don't.

chucknorris

January wrote: »

Oh that's not what Jacks master told me when they were here the other week. Jack was voted as the candidate fair and square and that was that.

Oh I know what they're saying and they are actually correct, however what they didn't say was, the new membership that his father brought in over the proceeding year was essentially what ensured that.

One of his masters got a hammering from a church goer right in front of us yesterday. It was quality watching. The only answer from his master was 'He's passionate about palatics'. Why didn't David think about that line

holly_johnson

Just had Senator Coughton & Senator Noone at my door. Sadly it was really weak. The minute I asked questions about reconciling the cost of the abolition of the USC, the unfairness of the M50 toll location, the pension levy etc, they couldn't get away fast enough. Really disappointed. The best she could come up with is that if you split her surname is says no. One! Truly tragic.

chucknorris

holly_johnson wrote: »

Just had Senator Coughton & Senator Noone at my door. Sadly it was really weak. The minute I asked questions about reconciling the cost of the abolition of the USC, the unfairness of the M50 toll location, the pension levy etc, they couldn't get away fast enough. Really disappointed. The best she could come up with is that if you split her surname is says no. One! Truly tragic.

She stated yesterday in a conversation that she will get about 2500 votes. I'm not so sure but she is extremely well spoken.

'reconciling the cost of the abolition of the USC' - good question and although I'd like to see it shrink as the country improves, I think that reconciliation should be dealt with in direct taxation. I don't think people mind paying for good services, but USC is and was always intended to be an emergency tax.

The tax base needs to be broadened.

holly_johnson

chucknorris wrote: »

She stated yesterday in a conversation that she will get about 2500 votes. I'm not so sure but she is extremely well spoken.

'reconciling the cost of the abolition of the USC' - good question and although I'd like to see it shrink as the country improves, I think that reconciliation should be dealt with in direct taxation. I don't think people mind paying for good services, but USC is and was always intended to be an emergency tax.

The tax base needs to be broadened.

Yeah but you're talking about €4bn. 4 BILLION. The USC brings in a massive amount of money. Nobody has any answers about where that money will come from if removed. Put it this way. I have insider knowledge through my job that this money is vital to the Exchequer. To remove this would mean that the economy would collapse. This isn't discretionary tax, this is vital in order to fund current services!

In other news, Chuck, you might enjoy this one. I was driving through the village today when I couldn't miss an 09 registered VW Golf plastered with Chambers logos driven by the man (child) himself. What was he doing? Texting while driving. I'm sorely tempted to report him to the guards and would do so if I thought anything would come of it!

chucknorris

holly_johnson wrote: »

Yeah but you're talking about €4bn. 4 BILLION. The USC brings in a massive amount of money. Nobody has any answers about where that money will come from if removed. Put it this way. I have insider knowledge through my job that this money is vital to the Exchequer. To remove this would mean that the economy would collpase. This isn't discretionary tax, this is vital in order to fund current services!

In other news, Chuck, you might enjoy this one. I was driving through the village today when I couldn't miss an 09 registered VW Golf plastered with Chambers logos driven by the man (child) himself. What was he doing? Texting while driving. I'm sorely tempted to report him to the guards and would do so if I thought anything would come of it!

The man child :-)

I hear you on the USC but there isn't a single party or candidate talking about abolishing it out right. I think anyone who would like to see it go, does so on a year by year basis, where direct taxation slowly replaces it as direct taxation is broadened.

I agree, it cannot simply be removed outright.