Dublin West General Election - SEE MOD NOTE POST 19.

MrMorooka

Grudaire wrote: »

Without going too off topic (there's a long but interesting thread in the sustainability forum, and my own understanding is that it is safe, but the cost, scale relative to grid and lead- in times make it a non runner here in Ireland)

Eamon Ryan has openly called for a proper debate on this issue.

Tue, I had a look at their site after writing that post and I may have been a bit harsh. They say as you do, that the scale is not appropriate to the size of Ireland, but I don't claim to know enough to argue either way. I just feel it is wrong to rule out nuclear at the offset, though I think obviously Ireland has much better options with wind/hydo than we are currently exploiting. But we should still be open to nuclear as a backbone, and not just dismiss it.

Anyway, back on topic.

Grudaire

chucknorris wrote: »

If you watch #dubw closely on Twitter, you'll see the green support give very little time for FF.

Perhaps once bitten-twice shy


But seriously, I was very disappointed with all the parties represented last night when the environment, sustainability and planning were effectively ignored.. How did the flooding that cost so much not get a mention!?

chucknorris

Grudaire wrote: »

Perhaps once bitten-twice shy


But seriously, I was very disappointed with all the parties represented last night when the environment, sustainability and planning were effectively ignored.. How did the flooding that cost so much not get a mention!?

Mental health was totally lacking also in the discussion.

Godge

Grudaire wrote: »

Make sure to use your preferences - after seeing Joan on the leaders debate I don't think she'll be coasting to victory - even past a significantly inexperienced candidate.

This will go to several counts, and if it does then transfer friendliness is the name of the battle. McGuinness should be more transfer friendly than Chambers, and even more so O'Gorman would be transfer friendly if he gets enough votes to get over the early culls.

I agree, this election is getting very hard to predict.

Varadkar is a certainty. Donnelly looks like one too.

Chambers may come third but where will he get transfers from?

Coppinger, Burton and McGuinness may fight him for the last two seats. Greens don't appear to be doing well enough for O'Gorman to feature but we can keep hoping.

chucknorris

Worth a listen folks. Works on a PC and Android, but apple IOS seems not to be able to play it.

https://www.mixcloud.com/925PhoenixFM/david-mcguinness-indipendent-on-dublin-west-decides/

amdublin

chucknorris wrote: »

Yesterday morning we did Clonsilla train station from 7am and we had it to ourselves.

This morning we did Coolmine form 7am and essentially had it to ourselves, but apparently four parties were going hell for leather back at Clonsilla this morning trying to get a leaflet in to the hands of voters.

First up - best dressed;)

Not being smart who is "we"? I don't recall anyone at clonsilla station yesterday (around8am).

This morning at clonsilla:
Paul Donnelly, Ruth Coppinger aaaand Leo Varadkar.

chucknorris

amdublin wrote: »

Not being smart who is "we"? I don't recall anyone at clonsilla station yesterday (around8am).

This morning at clonsilla:
Paul Donnelly, Ruth Coppinger aaaand Leo Varadkar.

David McGuinness and two canvassers were at Clonsilla train station from 7am to 8:30am yesterday morning. He even tweeted from the station - managed to get out over 200 canvass flyers. Bitter cold - you could not have got through the door without seeing him.

angryIreGamer

amdublin wrote: »

Not being smart who is "we"? I don't recall anyone at clonsilla station yesterday (around8am).

This morning at clonsilla:
Paul Donnelly, Ruth Coppinger aaaand Leo Varadkar.

Chuck is David McGuinness's brother (i think, he says it in a few spots) so Id assume Chuck and David.

amdublin

chucknorris wrote: »

David McGuinness and two canvassers were at Clonsilla train station from 7am to 8:30am yesterday morning. He even tweeted from the station - managed to get out over 200 canvass flyers. Bitter cold - you could not have got through the door without seeing him.

Um it might be ringing bells with me now!!!!!!

amdublin

^^^
But it is a sign of how they all begin to merge into each other

*or else it's my awful memory

chucknorris

angryIreGamer wrote: »

Chuck is David McGuinness's brother (i think, he says it in a few spots) so Id assume Chuck and David.

Close but no cigar.

angryIreGamer

there are no social democrats in D15? SD impressed me far more than i was expecting last night.

Grudaire

Godge wrote: »

I agree, this election is getting very hard to predict.

Varadkar is a certainty. Donnelly looks like one too.

Chambers may come third but where will he get transfers from?

Coppinger, Burton and McGuinness may fight him for the last two seats. Greens don't appear to be doing well enough for O'Gorman to feature but we can keep hoping.

Looking at the results from the last few times (the first bye-election isn't showing up right):
http://electionsireland.org/result.cfm?election=2011&cons=112
http://electionsireland.org/result.cfm?election=2011B&cons=112&ref=129

It could be a dog fight for the last spot, but remember the quota is 20%..
Leo is likely to improve (or at least stay steady) on 19% - this should only hurt Chambers.
Based on the bye-election result Coppinger and Donnelly could get as much as 20% each - both of which will be used up as a quota (No transfers). Unless something significant happens both should be challenging for the second seat. (McGuinness could take some of both their votes, but I can't see either getting less than 17% which should see them comfortably over the line)

As for the last seat:
Joan is unlikely to get 22% - where those voters go will really influence the end shake up
It's hard to know what amount was a DMcG loyal vote and what was a FF loyal vote - 15% for Lenihan, up to 17% for McGuinness, that vote is likely to split.

O'Gorman is relying on bettering the bye-election result of 6.5% and getting a bounce from transfers, he needs to overtake the weakest of the other three though.

chucknorris

Grudaire wrote: »

Looking at the results from the last few times (the first bye-election isn't showing up right):
http://electionsireland.org/result.cfm?election=2011&cons=112
http://electionsireland.org/result.cfm?election=2011B&cons=112&ref=129

It could be a dog fight for the last spot, but remember the quota is 20%..
Leo is likely to improve (or at least stay steady) on 19% - this should only hurt Chambers.
Based on the bye-election result Coppinger and Donnelly could get as much as 20% each - both of which will be used up as a quota (No transfers). Unless something significant happens both should be challenging for the second seat. (McGuinness could take some of both their votes, but I can't see either getting less than 17% which should see them comfortably over the line)

As for the last seat:
Joan is unlikely to get 22% - where those voters go will really influence the end shake up
It's hard to know what amount was a DMcG loyal vote and what was a FF loyal vote - 15% for Lenihan, up to 17% for McGuinness, that vote is likely to split.

O'Gorman is relying on bettering the bye-election result of 6.5% and getting a bounce from transfers, he needs to overtake the weakest of the other three though.

Folks, the socialists won't get the vote they got in the last by-election. SF are eating them alive. This is unquestionable.

Joan Burton will be lucky to exceed 10% - that leaves it wide open.

FF getting 17% would mean they get every single vote they got in the last by-election - i'd like to say it won;t happen but i don't know.

Arciphel

Interesting website - http://www.irishelectionstats.com/constituencies/dublin-west/

Grudaire

Noone above McGuinness and Roderic!? Nah that's total guesswork being used on that website!

Zaph

Grudaire wrote: »

Noone above McGuinness and Roderic!? Nah that's total guesswork being used on that website!

I agree. Look at their assessment of Kerry and compare it to the TG4 poll just released. According to TG4 Martin Ferris has only 7% of the vote. That site has him as a dead cert for a seat. Someone is very wrong.

chucknorris

Is anyone going to the Vincent Browne show tomorrow? Any hand grenades going to be thrown?

hardCopy

chucknorris wrote: »

Is anyone going to the Vincent Browne show tomorrow? Any hand grenades going to be thrown?

I'm tempted to go for a look. The TV3 website says no ticket required.

chucknorris

hardCopy wrote: »

I'm tempted to go for a look. The TV3 website says no ticket required.

All you have to do is get there for 6:30 or so. if you want me to copy and paste the email in here, just let me know.

horse7

Do any of the candidates going up have a policy to change the residential property tax to one of the tax related to your income.

horse7

I don't know why they think Leo will get in. It's not that he's done anything wrong, its just that he's not done anything.

[CrimsonGhost]

Only just started following this thread. Not sure I'll bother catching up on more than 4-5 pages of stuff but will continue to follow it.
Anyway, here's a public twitter list of all the candidates tweets, been using it to follow who has been saying what on twitter in the constituency. Hope it's of some use to someone. https://twitter.com/davegillen/lists/dublinwest

chucknorris

Where will social media play a part in the election on this occasion compared to leaflets, posters, bill boards etc?

5 years ago it did not break the usual scenario in Dublin west in terms of party support but more people are on social media than ever before. Will it have influence where some use it and others don't.

MrMorooka

Well, as someone is is not actually living in the constituency day-to-day but still votes there(one of the things about impermanence of renting in Ireland, it seems like too much effort to go to a garda station with a form potentially every year), social media, this thread, and talking with family occasionally is the only way I can be informed on who's who.

Gaspode

Other than boards, I look at no politics on social media or follow any politicians. Could be a generation thing, so maybe the younger folks might make use of it. The funny pics or gaffes that get passed around get a look though.

athtrasna

I find that people get very agitated about politics on fb and Twitter, indeed on the politics fora here too but this thread and it's predecessors for the very most part are civilised. Reasoned debate and people sharing experiences. In some cases I've found out more about candidates on this thread than elsewhere and I'd consider myself to be very informed.

Social media won't affect how I vote, this thread has helped me reorder some preferences, none of which will be going to daddy's boy or tennis barbie

ThisRegard

Yeah, I stay out of the more general GE threads on this site because basically they're usually a mess. The local ones avoid that, thankfully.

horse7

[CrimsonGhost] wrote: »

Only just started following this thread. Not sure I'll bother catching up on more than 4-5 pages of stuff but will continue to follow it.
Anyway, here's a public twitter list of all the candidates tweets, been using it to follow who has been saying what on twitter in the constituency. Hope it's of some use to someone. https://twitter.com/davegillen/lists/dublinwest

Getting page does not exist?

chucknorris

horse7 wrote: »

Getting page does not exist?

You need a Twitter account but it works for me fine.