Dublin West General Election - SEE MOD NOTE POST 19.

amdublin

No please. Enough with the pictures. Did you read my post at all.

Can you just focus on your own candidate.

chucknorris

amdublin wrote: »

No please. Enough with the pictures. Did you read my post at all.

Can you just focus on your own candidate.

Canvassing on this thread is banned. I may throw out opinions on other candidates, but I rarely promote the one I'm supporting. That's what the group is for.

On that note, the AAA are in a bit of difficulty unusually in this election.

oblivious

I for one like chuck's inside opinions on the various developments. Also at leas he is transparent on who he's supporting/working with. Maybe "other" could do he same.

ThisRegard

Chuck, has David canvassed in his own locality?

chucknorris

ThisRegard wrote: »

Chuck, has David canvassed in his own locality?

Most of it but not all of it. Remember he has not big canvass team to open the doors. he has a tight team and he is doing it door by door.

We canvassed Tyrrelstown from 6:30 to 8:30 last night.

angryIreGamer

got our second set of canvassers over the weekend. Nothing much to say other than their candidate was in trouble of not getting a seat and they would appreciate a transfer.

chucknorris

angryIreGamer wrote: »

got our second set of canvassers over the weekend. Nothing much to say other than their candidate was in trouble of not getting a seat and they would appreciate a transfer.

May I ask who they were from?

Kiwi_knock

I had canvassers for Joan and they said it was between her and Ruth for the last seat. They were quite worried.

chucknorris

Kiwi_knock wrote: »

I had canvassers for Joan and they said it was between her and Ruth for the last seat. They were quite worried.

Independents are on 41% in Dublin this morning. Labour on 6%.

They are worried. they need to stay ahead of Joan to have a chance because if David does, Joan;s transfers will spill him past ruth.

angryIreGamer

Kiwi_knock wrote: »

I had canvassers for Joan and they said it was between her and Ruth for the last seat. They were quite worried.

same as

Grudaire

I like how both candidates are trying to paint it as a Joan vs Coppinger election!

It'll be interesting to see how the numbers stack up since we're losing Swords and gaining the Navan Road. I don't think it's dramatic enough to lose a seat on the left..

chucknorris

Grudaire wrote: »

I like how both candidates are trying to paint it as a Joan vs Coppinger election!

It'll be interesting to see how the numbers stack up since we're losing Swords and gaining the Navan Road. I don't think it's dramatic enough to lose a seat on the left..

It is. They lose 1000 from Swords, don't get them back on the Navan road and Joe Higgins retires, and most importantly - They get NO transfers from Sinn Fein which would always be an extra 7 to 9% boost for Joe as they always went out first. That will not happen this time.

Ruth knows this and admitted it on Vincent Browne.

Grudaire

AGC wrote: »

Would like to know myself - I was surprised when I heard.

I haven't watched the full Vinny B back yet and have only seen clips online.

There does seem to be some truth in this, unfortunately similar to Chambers at the debate, nobody could explain this to me! (Roderic had to run off to the phoenixFM debater before I had a chance to ask).

AGC

Grudaire wrote: »

There does seem to be some truth in this, unfortunately similar to Chambers at the debate, nobody could explain this to me! (Roderic had to run off to the phoenixFM debater before I had a chance to ask).

Thanks

Actually went into the constitution for a look and it says:

'The State shall provide for free primary education
and shall endeavour to supplement and give
reasonable aid to private and corporate
educational initiative, and, when the public good
requires it, provide other educational facilities or
institutions with due regard, however, for the
rights of parents, especially in the matter of
religious and moral formation.'

Stroke Politics

AGC wrote: »

Thanks

Actually went into the constitution for a look and it says:

'The State shall provide for free primary education
and shall endeavour to supplement and give
reasonable aid to private and corporate
educational initiative, and, when the public good
requires it, provide other educational facilities or
institutions with due regard, however, for the
rights of parents, especially in the matter of
religious and moral formation.'

Yeah. You'd need the gimlet eye to go over that...

But in practice, the child is not allowed to practice their religion, if it conflicts with the ethos of the school. I know of a school where a 6th class boy asked to be allowed to bring in a prayer mat and practice his religion in one of several rooms that were empty in his school. The B.O.M. refused this to him. What would Jack do here....?

Kiwi_knock

AGC wrote: »

Thanks

Actually went into the constitution for a look and it says:

'The State shall provide for free primary education
and shall endeavour to supplement and give
reasonable aid to private and corporate
educational initiative, and, when the public good
requires it, provide other educational facilities or
institutions with due regard, however, for the
rights of parents, especially in the matter of
religious and moral formation.'

I wouldn't read into that Article that it provides for the protection of the role of religion in schools, which is what Jack seemed to be arguing.

AGC

Stroke Politics wrote: »

Yeah. You'd need the gimlet eye to go over that...

But in practice, the child is not allowed to practice their religion, if it conflicts with the ethos of the school. I know of a school where a 6th class boy asked to be allowed to bring in a prayer mat and practice his religion in one of several rooms that were empty in his school. The B.O.M. refused this to him. What would Jack do here....?

That was just a quick search of it.

I would expect any candidate would disagree with the above schools BOM approach - My wife is a teacher and has come across examples like you say, although it is improving. A lot would be down to the mentality of management. Newer schools would be a lot better.

It does not seem to change the fact what was said was correct.

Stroke Politics

AGC wrote: »

That was just a quick search of it.

I would expect any candidate would disagree with the above schools BOM approach - My wife is a teacher and has come across examples like you say, although it is improving. A lot would be down to the mentality of management. Newer schools would be a lot better.

It does not seem to change the fact what was said was correct.

But is it better to be correct or to be active about this? I see in Jack a lot of law, and not much justice. Would he be better off taking silk and paying for a career there?

AGC

Stroke Politics wrote: »

But is it better to be correct or to be active about this?

It would have been a lot better for him if VB didn't shout him down saying he was wrong when he was right and not for him to come apologies after the show:D

Some of the reporting/media/debates etc... through this short campaign have been awful.

Kiwi_knock

I went back and watched it again. Jack claimed "that people have a constitutional right to practice religion in schools." I can't find that right anywhere in the constitution. I don't know why Vincent would be apologising.

Stroke Politics

Kiwi_knock wrote: »

I went back and watched it again. Jack claimed "that people have a constitutional right to practice religion in schools." I can't find that right anywhere in the constitution. I don't know why Vincent would be apologising.

That's what I heard him say as well. As fine a legal mind as Jack might have, he was incorrect in stating this to be a constitutional right....

AGC

Kiwi_knock wrote: »

I went back and watched it again. Jack claimed "that people have a constitutional right to practice religion in schools." I can't find that right anywhere in the constitution. I don't know why Vincent would be apologising.

From my reading it does - and maybe why he supposedly apologised.

guarantees to respect the inalienable right and
duty of parents to provide, according to their
means, for the religious and moral, intellectual,
physical and social education of their children.
Parents shall be free to provide this education in
their homes or in private schools or in schools
recognised or established by the State.

Like someone else said earlier Joan was around my area this evening and gave the same approach as has been said, Joan v Ruth for last seat.

Has Coppinger been going with the 'women for Ruth' approach for the whole campaign? Saw a group of 6/7 women canvassing in the centre for her on Friday.

AGC

Stroke Politics wrote: »

That's what I heard him say as well. As fine a legal mind as Jack might have, he was incorrect in stating this to be a constitutional right....

Did you think he was trying to quote it word for word?

Grudaire

I have a strong feeling that Newstalk is predicting Dublin West tomorrow morning.. so in advance of that I want to throw some outrageous predictions out in the hope that I can act smug on Saturday!

The constituency traditionally has two seats for the left. Up to now Joe Higgins and Joan fitted this space comfortably. Ruth has less soft appeal than Joe, although benefits from the current much higher hard left sentiment. Donnelly benefits from this anti-government sentiment also. The Sinn Féin voters are very loyal, and will not transfer, or likely be swayed to vote for another candidate. If both are elected then it will be at the expense of Burton, however at least one will be elected without a quota (last eliminated).

I think the recent polls showing Labour and FG in trouble have given the coalition a bounce going into the last furlong. This is definitely noticeable on the doors, a surprising number definitely supporting the coalition to avoid the risk of unknown from the left. As such I can be the first person to say that Leo is clear by a mile.
More interestingly this will give a bump to Burton. Note that there will be no more polls prior to the election.

The coalition upswing coupled with tough competition from the left in Mulhuddart will harm the chances of David McGuinness. To be honest I have heard less mention of McGuinness than I had expected (although admittedly not in his stomping ground) - Unfortunately Chucknorris I think it will be a disappointing result for David, even as low as 4%. The majority of the vote will stay loyal to the party.

Chambers will benefit significantly from the party loyal vote, and will poll well. A weak performance on Vincent Browne will harm his chances, his lack of experience was clear to see. Fianna Fáil may have made a huge (short term) mistake in ditching McGuinness - this splitting of the vote coupled with a strong Varadkar vote will lose them the seat for now. (I do think that David was shafted at the right time, otherwise Jack would be waiting a long time to get a shot at the title)

Last but not least O'Gorman will poll strongly in the local ward where he has been working hard since before being elected first. Being Chair of the party will not help, however green issues have come back into focus, so the Green Party vote will improve generally. (Perhaps optimistically) I see a good vote of at least 6%, but potentially as high as 8%. He will be in the mix for transfers, however will most likely fall short of a seat.

Renua, and other independents will largely not feature, TJ Clare will probably act as a sweeper and transfer heavily (albeit relatively few votes) to O'Gorman.

1. Leo Varadkar (elected 1st count)
2. Paul Donnolly - elected as enough 1st pref to make up for lack of transfers
3. Ruth Coppinger - elected as enough 1st pref to make up for lack of transfers
4. Jack Chambers - elected as enough 1st pref to make up for lack of transfers
5. Roderic O'Gorman - transfers strongly from all directions (note that hard left not eliminated) - starting from too far behind to catch Chambers, eliminated 6th count
6. Joan Burton - devastating result, transfers too diluted to get over the line. eliminated in the 5th count, but hasn't been seen since the boxes opened, eliminated 5th count
7. Catherine Noone - boosted by Leo transfers, eliminated 4th count
8. David McGuinness - eliminated 3rd count
9. TJ Clare - respectable result but still eliminated 2nd count
10. Jo O'Brien/Dermot Casey - insignificant, eliminated 2nd count

AGC

Grudaire wrote: »

I have a strong feeling that Newstalk is predicting Dublin West tomorrow morning.... etc.

Really think Donnelly will give Leo a run at 1st over the line, toss up between them for 1st and 2nd. Chambers for the 3rd seat with Coppinger scraping in at 4.

I think Donnelly will take a lot of Higgins vote away from Coppinger, I think she might have to rely on transfers from SF/D McG. Burton a close 5th

ThisRegard

The Breakfast show with Ivans prediction? If so, they did that already the other week I thought.

Kiwi_knock

Grudaire wrote: »

I have a strong feeling that Newstalk is predicting Dublin West tomorrow morning... etc.

I can't see Roderic doing that well. I know myself and a lot of people I have talked to have the same reaction to him, that he is a nice man who is dedicated but they just can't force themselves to give a preference to the Green Party. I think he will poll reasonably well but I just see him being a fair bit away from contention.

athtrasna

Kiwi_knock wrote: »

I can't see Roderic doing that well. I know myself and a lot of people I have talked to have the same reaction to him, that he is a nice man who is dedicated but they just can't force themselves to give a preference to the Green Party. I think he will poll reasonably well but I just see him being a fair bit away from contention.

I'm inclined to agree. I had planned to give him a high preference but he really upset me with his stance on a local issue.

This election is turning out to be a funny one. Most elections I go most of the way down the ballot paper, this time 3 is as high as I'll go, if even that far. 1 is decided but 2 and 3 keep changing. Roll on Friday, get this indecision over with!

Zaph

I think 4 is about as far as I've ever gone with preferences in any election I've voted in. This time it'll be 3, and I had to give serious thought to what order I'll be voting in as I generally don't think too hard about tactical voting I just mark my preferences in the order that I prefer them. It's different this time, and while the order just happens to be the same as I would be voting if I wasn't thinking tactically, I think a lot of other people will be thinking harder about how they'll be voting this time.

Grudaire

ThisRegard wrote:

The Breakfast show with Ivans prediction? If so, they did that already the other week I thought.

Damn, I must have misheard. It's not up on the website to listen to yet
http://www.newstalk.com/election2016/Dublin-West

Kiwi_knock wrote:

I can't see Roderic doing that well. I know myself and a lot of people I have talked to have the same reaction to him, that he is a nice man who is dedicated but they just can't force themselves to give a preference to the Green Party. I think he will poll reasonably well but I just see him being a fair bit away from contention.

The response on the doors has been quite positive. Green issues do matter to a significant number of people and even though I think he'll fall short I think he'll do surprisingly well.