March 2015 Boards forecast contest

Tae laidir

Phoenix Park 14.8 yesterday.

Tae laidir

Tae laidir wrote: »

Cork/Knock Airports -1.8 yesterday may hold as minimum for some time!

Mullingar -2.6 yesterday

M.T. Cranium

Well, a bit late reporting on how March is going so far, these are somewhat estimated through the 11th ...

IMT is about 6.4 C

PRC is near normal or slightly above (it was slightly below going into Wednesday)

SUN is probably about 20% above normal.

John mac

-4.1 Markree Castle yesterday

pauldry

-4.6c mullingar

John mac

Mullingar is showing -3.3
Athenry is also -4.1


although 8km east of Mullingar .....

John mac

Mullingar has -4.6 for yesterday..

M.T. Cranium

The IMT has fallen off to 5.9 C with these colder days and will fall about 0.1 each day that the mean is in the 4-5 range, probably closer to 0.2 if the means are closer to 4 than 5.

pauldry

Max temp around 13c today. Maybe valent the station.

ThOught I was set as met eireann forecast 7 to 10c last night then changed it to 8 to 11c this morning then changed it again to 10 to 13c this afternoon.

Tae laidir

OGIMET showing 12.8 for both Belmullet & Valentia.
If correct, Bullseye for Harps
But Double Tops for Con :mad:

M.T. Cranium

Okay then, just to confirm 12.8 at Valentia and Belmullet for the bonus question, but as nobody selected Belmullet, will score as if Valentia was "it" alone.

Three closest humans were Harps (no error), Dacogawa (0.1 out) and Johnmac (0.2 out). Of those, Dacogawa scoops two extra points for the right location combined with a top score, so he wins the bonus round with 12 total points.

Next three to receive nine points would be Bsal (0.3 out), JPmarn (0.4 out) and a tie among MTC, Mrskinner, and Con Sensus who would not have counted to determine contestant scoring if alone at that mark (0.5 out). Of those, Mrskinner and Con Sensus got a bonus point for Valentia, so they also get ten points on the bonus.

Then it would be eight points for Tae laidir and kindredspirit (0.8 out), and Lumi (0.9 out) all of whom get the extra point for Valentia, so nine in total for those three.

From there on it would be groups of three and as nobody was way off the mark I will allow that to terminate wherever it reaches rather than forcing it down to a couple of zeroes. It may make lowest score 2 or so. Think that's fair because sometimes we see bonus guesses that are closer to extreme values than anyone ventured in this case so everyone had at least some skill in their forecast (guess).

M.T. Cranium

Noting IMT now about 5.6 (5.7 after 17th) and already Casement -5.1 at some point yesterday, that could be eclipsed by later data.

I'm in with a shout for a change. But will probably get the door slammed on my bony fingers (excellent).

M.T. Cranium

So the IMT now on 5.6, the PRC has fallen off to 70% (approx) and SUN remains well above normal around 125%. Has anyone seen a temperature above 15 C yet?

That -5.1 at Casement appears to be the min so far.

Enjoy the hour of semi-twilight, if somebody has a reliable car thermometer, record values every 10 mins from 0900 to 1020 just for fun and also at 1100 and 1200, for calibration (do it somewhere close to a reporting station) and try to make them at one location only). If your instrument appears well calibrated then the record of temperature variation will be interesting. I've seen data in the past that show as much as a 2-3 C drop in temperature during eclipses. The 95% factor won't change this much, totality would only reduce incoming solar radiation slightly. I realize it may be mostly cloudy and this is why I find it interesting to get a record.

Schadenfreudia

Temp here was rising in overcast conditions from a dawn figure of 6.7C to 8.7C at 8.45 - between 8.45 and 9.30 it dropped back to 8.4C.

Then, ironically the 8% of the sun started to break through the overcast and the temp held at 8.4 until 9.40 and is now up to 9.2C.

Not much, but more noticeable than the light change! Amazing you can lose 92% of the sun and hardly notice the change in light.

M.T. Cranium

Thanks, there were some other temperature recordings on the eclipse thread too. In general, at a time of day when temperatures would normally rise 1 or 2 deg, they fell about 1 deg, so basically a cooling factor of 2-3 deg at maximum.

The perception of daylight is one thing, but the satellite loop posted over on the eclipse thread shows how much change in sunlight was created by the 80-90% coverage of the Sun. It looks like quite a change as far south as northern France on that loop. But I know what you mean about the slight reduction, that was my perception too on a much brighter day (May 94 if memory serves) in Ontario with about 90% coverage. It just seemed to be more like a partly overcast day for a few minutes.

rameire

I am having to place my April entry here early.

Rameire _________ 9.6 _ 20.2 _ -2.0 _ 91 _ 105 _ 6 Cork

as I dont know what the bonus is I am placing a random 6 in.
hope it is ok to do this, just wont have tinternet access for a few weeks.

Thank you MT Cranium, Appreciate it.

M.T. Cranium

Okay, thanks and I will pick a bonus question where 6 could be an answer. Maybe we will go with hours of sunshine on Easter Sunday (5th April) averaged for the six primary stations used in our contest. Bonus for location of maximum sunshine (if you see this before you go off the grid, Rameire, feel free to amend the number and name the station from these six -- Cork, Valentia, Belmullet, Shannon, Dublin and Casement.

pauldry

You cud say what temperature will it be every day in april

Its bloody freezing since january on the day it was 16c. Even the arctic sea ice has started renewing itself again

M.T. Cranium

We're having a below normal day here, so unusual that loudspeaker vans are touring the city warning people to stay indoors until it passes.

M.T. Cranium

Final values confirmed as 6.1 for IMT (just squeaked in from 6.06) and precip appears to be 109% (will confirm from MS). Have lost track of sunshine but expect it will be above normal slightly. Max may need some mercy rule scoring, I can't recall anything much warmer than the 14.4 C at Moorepark on 30th.

Will do some scoring when I first encounter the Monthly Summary tomorrow (afternoon your time).

M.T. Cranium

Scoring for March 2015

FORECASTER __________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN_Max 17th____ TOTALS

mrskinner_____________ 23 _ 17* _ 18 _ 10 _ 07 _ 9+1 ________ 85
Jpmarn _______________ 13 _ 16* _ 17 _ 10 _ 06 _ 9 __________ 71
M.T. Cranium __________ 19 _ 09* _ 14 _ 14 _ 06 _ 9 __________ 71
pauldry _______________25 _ 10* _ 09 _ 14 _ 06 _ 5+1 ________ 70
Bsal __________________20 _ 18* _ 00 _ 12 _ 09 _ 9 __________ 68
jd ___________________ 24 _ 12* _ 12 _ 09 _ 06 _ 4+1 ________ 68
Dasa29 _______________24 _ 19* _ 00 _ 12 _ 06 _ 6 ___________67
Joe Public _____________ 23 _ 12*_ 12 _ 05 _ 08 _ 3+1 _________64
Dacogawa _____________21 _ 06* _ 09 _ 13 _ 02 _ 10+2 _______ 63

Con Sensus ___________ 22 _ 09* _ 06 _ 10 _ 06 _ 9+1 ________ 63

delw _________________ 23 _ 16* _ 03 _ 10 _ 03 _ 5+1 ________ 61
200motels_____________ 23 _ 05* _ 10 _ 14 _ 05 _ 2 __________ 59
Lumi _________________22 _ 03* _ 08 _ 12 _ 05 _ 8+1 ________ 59
sunflower3 ____________ 22 _ 16* _ 00 _ 10 _ 06 _ 5 __________ 59
John mac _____________ 22 _ 03* _ 06 _ 13 _ 04 _ 10 _________ 58
waterways ____________ 19 _ 00 __ 14 _ 10 _ 08 _ 7 __________ 58
Schadenfreudia _ (-5) ___ 21 _ 09* _ 04 _ 15 _ 05 _ 4 _____ 58-5=53
mickger844posts _______ 16 _ 09* _ 06 _ 06 _ 08 _ 7+1 ________ 53
Lostinashford __________ 11 _ 09* _ 10 _ 13 _ 07 _ 3 __________ 53
Kindredspirit ___________16 _ 05* _ 04 _ 12 _ 06 _ 8+1 ________ 52
Rikand _______________ 21 _ 01* _ 04 _ 09 _ 08 _ 4+1 ________ 48
Rameire _____ (-5) _____ 23 _ 01* _ 01 _ 12 _ 06 _ 8 _____ 51-5=46
Tae laidir______________ 13 _ 13* _ 00 _ 09 _ 02 _ 8+1 ________ 46
omicron ______________ 13 _ 05* _ 00 _ 10 _ 05 _ 6+1 _________40
DOCARCH _____________14 _ 03* _ 01 _ 09 _ 06 _ 7 ___________40
Harps ____ (-20) _______ 10 _ 09* _ 08 _ 10 _ 07 _ 10 ___ 54-20=34

______________________________________________________

* scores are adjusted by minimum progression

Congrats to Mrskinner who was well ahead of tied second Jpmarn and your host (!) in a generally topsy-turvy outcome. Can only imagine that the annual race will become quite tight now. Look for that update in a little while.

M.T. Cranium

From the MS, have confirmed the final values for March as:

IMT 6.1 C

MAX 14.8 C

MIN -5.1 C

PRC 109%

SUN 130%

Max on 17th 12.8 C at Valentia (and Belmullet)

So will be going back into that table, checking the scores for MAX which as I suspected would need the minimum progression rule, and altering the sunshine scores as my provisional estimate while above normal was a bit pessimistic. Then I will reorder the scores and go on to the annual scoring table update. Would guess that I might have the table edited by 6:30 p.m. and the annual table posted by about 8 p.m.

M.T. Cranium

Annual scoring update Jan to Mar 2015


FORECASTER ____________ Jan __ Feb ___ Mar ___ 2015 Total __ best 2/3

Con Sensus ______________ 70 __ 71 ___ 63 _____ 204 ________ 141

jd ______________________ 72 __ 61 ___ 68 _____ 201 ________ 140
Bsal _____________________77 __ 55 ___ 68 _____ 200 ________ 145
Lumi ____________________ 68 __ 72 ___ 59 _____ 199 ________ 140
DOCARCH ________________75 __ 79 ___ 40 _____ 194 ________ 154
mickger844posts __________ 50 __ 90 ___ 53 _____ 193 ________ 143
Jpmarn __________________ 64 __ 57 ___ 71 _____ 192 ________ 135
Rikand ___________________84 __ 59 ___ 48 _____ 191 ________ 143
sunflower3 _______________ 69 __ 61 ___ 59 _____ 189 ________ 130
John mac ________________ 73 __ 55 ___ 58 _____ 186 ________ 131
Schadenfreudia ___________ 61 __ 67 ___ 53 _____ 181 ________ 128
dasa29 __________________ 47 __ 69 ___ 67 _____ 183 ________ 136
Joe Public ________________ 69 __ 42 ___ 64 _____ 175 ________ 133
dacogawa ________________ 48 __ 62 ___ 63 _____ 173 ________ 125
kindredspirit ______________ 63 __ 57 ___ 52 _____ 172 ________ 120
Pauldry __________________ 51 __ 48 ___ 70 _____ 169 ________ 121
Harps ___________________ 69 __ 57 ___ 34 _____ 160 ________ 126
omicron __________________41 __ 77 ___ 40 _____ 158 ________ 118
M.T. Cranium _____________ 68 __ 17 ___ 71 _____ 156 ________ 139
Mrskinner ________________ --- __ 71 ___ 85 _____ 156 ________ 156
rameire __________________ 55 __ 40 ___ 46 _____ 141 ________ 101
Tae laidir _________________33 __ 60 ___ 46 _____ 139 ________ 106
waterways _______________ --- __ 70 ___ 58 _____ 128 ________ 128
lostinashford ______________56 __ --- ___ 53 _____ 109 ________ 109
delw ____________________ 48 __ --- ___ 61 _____ 109 ________ 109
200motels _______________ 30 __ --- ___ 59 ______ 89 _________ 89
blue5000 ________________ 45 __ --- ___ --- _____ 45
BLIZZARD7 ______________ --- __ 31 ___ --- _____ 31
__________________________________________________________

Well, guess who we are all chasing now ... but it's quite a tight race and when you look at the best 2 of 3 as an early indicator (best 10 of 12 will be used for the main award in this contest) Mrskinner is ahead with DOCARCH close behind.

pauldry

Is mrs skinner consensus wife?
;(

mrskinner

Do you know where you can stick your apostrophe?