Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion: Spring/Summer 15

Oneiric 3

Beautiful cloud structure over Oldham today, from Matt Hugo Twitter thing.

sparrowcar

Very disappointed sitting in the field all ready for a light show and nothing, hopefully something tomorrow again.

lolie

Another webcam for the Biscay storm.
Mostly cloud flashes but a few nice forks mixed in.
http://www.viewsurf.com/univers/plage/vue/13740-france-poitou-charentes-saint-trojan-les-bains-live

maquiladora

Looks like slim pickings for us for the foreseeable future. I think a handful of sparks like what we saw today are the most we should expect over the next few days.

typhoony

thats a beast of a storm hitting western parts of France, i wonder how far north it will get

lolie

Really impressive returns from that cell in England now, serious lightning from it.
Possible supercell?
https://mobile.twitter.com/jgden/status/616364214270173186/video/1

dacogawa

typhoony wrote: »

thats a beast of a storm hitting western parts of France, i wonder how far north it will get

It was amazing on the webcameras earlier, a flash every 2 seconds (not joking) thanks IanCar29 for the link
http://www.royan-tourisme.co.uk/share/webcams

lolie wrote: »

Really impressive returns from that cell in England now, serious lightning from it.
Possible supercell?
https://mobile.twitter.com/jgden/status/616364214270173186/video/1

The one to the East of it earlier was biblical :eek:
https://twitter.com/LindaScottYorks/status/616339098438082560

bajer101

sparrowcar wrote: »

Very disappointed sitting in the field all ready for a light show and nothing, hopefully something tomorrow again.

WTF are you doing sitting in a field waiting for a marginal possibility event?
Are you going out there again tomorrow?

Danno

An export leaving NW Spain in the last two hours, might make the crossing.

maquiladora

Some nice storms over northern France this morning.

Hal1

Hail storm yesterday yorkshire.

:eek::eek::eek:

Iancar29

Near Durham , England at roughly 9.30pm yesterday !

Storm 10

Serious damage to houses in the UK yesterday by lightning, must have been frightening

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-tyne-33359066

Oneiric 3

Texas style lightning from an elevated storm over the Derbyshire/Yorkshire region yesterday.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DKV8P33MgJE

Cantona's Collars

Newcastle yesterday.


Blyth lighthouse.

Hooter23

Looks like theres a potential thunderstorm heading towards Galway city in the next few minutes its small but growing...

jimmynokia

Yesterday was a big let down hopefully something happens today...doubt it?

Storm 10

Torrential rain in Galway roads are flooded, no sparks though.

Iancar29

Chance of elevated storms tomorrow night.





Strong Deep layer shear will help keep cells active.



Dare i even mention a possible

MCS? :pac:

redsteveireland

Little bit of activity north of Limerick. Some flooding around here from the last downpour. More on the way.

Rikand

Absolutely bucketing in Athlone and that's a fair cell heading this way up Lough Derg too

redsteveireland

We have lift off. A few more strikes now, lights flickered here from a couple of close strikes.

www.netweather.tv

Oneiric 3

Heard a distant rumble here too. Very far away though.

Aerohead

Any strikes showing South of Galway Bay just heard a distant rumble of thunder

Wanderer78

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Texas style lightning from an elevated storm over the Derbyshire/Yorkshire region yesterday

any idea of the distance of that storm from the camera?

maquiladora

Yeah tomorrow night/early Saturday morning might be a bit more interesting.

Interesting post from NickF, senior forecaster on NW.

Cold front engaging hot and moist plume returning W/NW from the near continent tomorrow evening, which in theory should create storms all along it across Ireland through the UK moving NE.

I guess some models break out heaviest precip towards the N and W of the UK, as this is where the greatest forcing for ascent will be in the left exit of the jet moving up the western side of the UK tomorrow night with capping more evident further east. But GFS suggests, and I would go along with it too, potential for storms all along the cold front.

Strong SW flow aloft and backed Ely winds ahead of the cold front should produce decent enough DL shear, 40-50 knts for well organised storms - line segments or even one or two supercells along/ahead the cold front capable of producing large hail and damaging winds. Strong enough veering for tornado potential too.

maquiladora

18Z HIRLAM for midnight tomorrow. Does look like storms over southern UK. Heavy rain over eastern Ireland but just from the cold front or is there a thundery element there too, I guess that's the question.

Harps

Quite a confusing picture again of what to expect later, estofex have a level 2 for just off the south coast of England and nothing much for Ireland yet most hi-res models don't develop anything until the front is north of London with Ireland seeing some very heavy rain. Estofex forecast mentions possibility of supercells and very large hail but as always it'll just end up being a nowcast.

maquiladora

Harps wrote: »

Quite a confusing picture again of what to expect later, estofex have a level 2 for just off the south coast of England and nothing much for Ireland yet most hi-res models don't develop anything until the front is north of London with Ireland seeing some very heavy rain. Estofex forecast mentions possibility of supercells and very large hail but as always it'll just end up being a nowcast.

I think the estofex forecast must be based on the GFS, because they have a Level 2 over northern France mentioning "extreme precipitation" yet when I look at the HIRLAM and EURO4 they show hardly any precipitation there at all overnight apart from a couple of weak looking showers.

Iancar29

Met office should be putting out a red warning for parts of England , still only at yellow. DEFINITELY will be super cells later from latest models if they go up in this highly unstable atmosphere. Yes they won't hit everywhere but property damage is highly probable over there again with large hail. Let alone a possible tornado!