Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion: Spring/Summer 15

redsteveireland

Iancar29 wrote: »

Met office should be putting out a red warning for parts of England , still only at yellow. DEFINITELY will be super cells later from latest models if they go up in this highly unstable atmosphere. Yes they won't hit everywhere but property damage is highly probable over there again with large hail. Let alone a possible tornado!

From that, is London in the firing line later on?

WheatenBriar

Well Well well BBC news 24 graphics has french thunderstorms complete with lightning graphics spreading up the southeast and east coast of Ireland tonight, is it going to be our night?

Iancar29

redsteveireland wrote: »

From that, is London in the firing line later on?

Yes , but threat for any matured storm id say would be further north.

WheatenBriar wrote: »

Well Well well BBC news 24 graphics has french thunderstorms complete with lightning graphics spreading up the southeast and east coast of Ireland tonight, is it going to be our night?

It could be interesting tonight indeed for the east coast.

maquiladora

redsteveireland wrote: »

From that, is London in the firing line later on?

It won't really be possible to say until tonight. Models are keen on developing something but it might be further north than London. Should be interesting either way. Very intense rainfall.

Oneiric 3

WheatenBriar wrote: »

Well Well well BBC news 24 graphics has french thunderstorms complete with lightning graphics spreading up the southeast and east coast of Ireland tonight, is it going to be our night?

Met.ie forecast less dramatic. Just mentions heavy rain, but no doubt this will be updated given all this CAPE and LLS etc.

Oneiric 3

Weather on BBC 1 now, mentioning severe thunderstorms. Also had flashing lightning over much of Ulster..

maquiladora

WAFC London charts for midnight to 3am shows cumulonimbus clouds pushing into the southeast coast here then extending up along eastern counties overnight. 35k-40k ft cloud tops. More intense over eastern England, obviously.

Oneiric 3

How the front looked at 1.30pm. Looks fairly potent already.

maquiladora

Latest Met Office hi-res model for 4am looks like a line of intense cells from Skegness to Newry. Looks like southeast and east coast counties here would see the edge of that between around midnight and 3am as some of the charts have shown. We'll see....

Deatr

TAF for DUB has the following:


PROB40
TEMPO 0323/0404 TSGR
BECMG 0401/0403 16010KT

So here's hoping!

pad199207

View to the South. Acas clouds is it?

Larbre34

No lightning returns from the approaching system so far, are we expecting it to pep up overland or is their a convergence of air mass?

Iancar29

Larbre34 wrote: »

No lightning returns from the approaching system so far, are we expecting it to pep up overland or is their a convergence of air mass?

It doesn't hit the advecting warm,unstable air until later

maquiladora

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Met.ie forecast less dramatic. Just mentions heavy rain, but no doubt this will be updated given all this CAPE and LLS etc.

Thundery bursts and a risk of hail is mentioned on some of the regional forecasts.

pad199207

Mammatus Clouds visible under the High Cloud

maquiladora

12Z HIRLAM. At midnight the most intense precipitation is over eastern Ireland, though whether this is thundery or not I don't know.



By 3am it's showing intense storms over England.

Oneiric 3

Latest UK Met update leaving N.I out of their warnings for tonight. From the 'Chief Forecaster':

"On Friday evening another hot and increasingly humid airmass is expected to spread northwards from the continent. This airmass looks conducive to the development of isolated thunderstorms during the evening across southern and southwest England which are likely to become more frequent overnight as they spread northwards towards Scotland. With large amounts of energy again available in this atmosphere storms could be severe, with torrential downpours, hail and squally gusts of wind. 30 mm of rain is possible in less than an hour, with as much as 50 mm possible in 3 hours very locally. Large uncertainty remains regarding areas most at risk from storms, and many areas will miss these altogether, staying largely dry. However, where they do develop, disruption is possible. The most likely area for disruption is considered to be Wales, parts of the Midlands and northern (especially northwest) England, but a lesser risk extends around the periphery of this region"

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1435878000&regionName=uk


While latest HIRLAM seems to have increased the threat for Leintser and eastern Ulster. Nowcasting from here on in I thinks..

Iancar29

Im sure they'll have to mention thunderstorm in some form on the Six One forecast.

Harps

A lot of mid level instability visible here in London now, ac cas clouds developing, humidity rising and plenty of heat and sunshine for fuel. Hopefully a fun evening ahead

Oneiric 3

maquiladora wrote: »

12Z HIRLAM. At midnight the most intense precipitation is over eastern Ireland

Think high ground such as the Wicklow Mt's could potentially help as a trigger too.

EDIT: Sorry Ian, Snap!

lolie

The latest bbc forecast is disappointing compared to earlier.
At 1.30 they showed lightning up along the east coast and in the far northwest later on.
The 4.55 forecast just showed heavy rain over ireland with any thundery rain/lightning far away from us.
Fingers crossed it changes again.

Edit: shows it clipping the east of northern ireland.

WheatenBriar

lolie wrote: »

The latest bbc forecast is disappointing compared to earlier.
At 1.30 they showed lightning up along the east coast and in the far northwest later on.
The 4.55 forecast just showed heavy rain over ireland with any thundery rain/lightning far away from us.
Fingers crossed it changes again.

Edit: shows it clipping the east of northern ireland.

Ah no,the symbol is still there just in the Irish sea,no need to worry about where they stuck the graphic, they had a lot more graphics on the lunchtime
Nothing has changed, the instability fetch for the east and south east is still there and besides do ya know what that lightning is usually near the heaviest precipitation
I'll let ye know what's going on in the Arklow area anyway as this thing approaches

RobertKK

30 years this month since the 1985 event, will hardly see anything like it...

M.T. Cranium

The track for best lift potential seems to be about Waterford to Kildare to Down, no doubt a secondary max would develop with regional uplift on the east side of the Wicklow-Dublin mountains. Timing would be about 2300h - 0200h onset south coast to 0600-0900h decay phase north Leinster.

I expect at least some lightning to develop with about a 60% chance of a significant thunderstorm outbreak.

Despite the fact that hot and humid air mass is only on the surface in France and parts of Biscay, the lifting of it will have its best focus near south coast of Ireland so this may develop rather explosively after sunset. Will issue a watch and upgrade to alert when lightning detection begins to show potential.

RobertKK

WheatenBriar wrote: »

Ah no,the symbol is still there just in the Irish sea,no need to worry about where they stuck the graphic, they had a lot more graphics on the lunchtime
Nothing has changed, the instability fetch for the east and south east is still there and besides do ya know what that lightning is usually near the heaviest precipitation
I'll let ye know what's going on in the Arklow area anyway as this thing approaches

Yeah, they had no lightning symbol over Northern Ireland but said there would be lightning there.

maquiladora

First couple of sferics detected. South of the Cork coast.

RobertKK

Northern Italy has been having some day, has been very explosive all day.

RobertKK

Nothing from Met Eireann about lightning for tonight.

Instead a yellow warning for Saturday night and Sunday.

vickers209

not even a hint of thunder tonight from evelyn in the forecast there slight chance tomorrow she said and stronger chance on sunday??

jimmynokia

vickers209 wrote: »

not even a hint of thunder tonight from evelyn in the forecast there slight chance tomorrow she said and stronger chance on sunday??

Always boring that one..

I rather listen to the good folk here such as MT and Ian that that lot...