Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion: Spring/Summer 15

WheatenBriar

RobertKK wrote: »

Nothing from Met Eireann about lightning for tonight.

Instead a yellow warning for Saturday night and Sunday.

Noticed that *weird*

Lots of high mammatus here near Arklow and wavy patterns

Oscar Bravo

Sparks on the way.....

pad199207

Sky to my South says it all

jimmynokia

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

Sparks on the way.....

BRING IT ON.

maquiladora

Strikes are getting closer to the Cork coast. There was one just off Sherkin Island there now.

Trebor176

According to IWO on their Facebook account:

Thunderstorm watch Issued: 15:45
Valid From 20:00hrs - 06:00hrs Sat
Areas most at risk: SE coast right up to the NE coast

Indeed the accompanying model has a red blob over Dublin and surrounding counties. Around Sligo/Leitrim areas seem to have a chance too.

Another update from a few minutes ago:

WATCH is now in place for possible development of heavy thunderstorms over the eastern two thirds of Ireland tonight. Onset would be around 2300h to 0200h south coast spreading north to reach Dublin around 0300-0600h and further north into east Ulster by Saturday morning.

The best lift potential appears to be along a track from Waterford through Kildare into Meath, Louth, and Down. A secondary maximum could then develop to the east of the Wicklow and Dublin mountains.

West coast is not entirely out of the picture on this and some lightning could develop anywhere, but the risk potential is highest in the inland southeast and eastern Wicklow.

This WATCH will be upgraded to an ALERT this evening if lightning detection begins to show potential being realized. Check back around 9:30 p.m. to see if an alert has been posted. The current satellite imagery and synoptics are good but we are not yet seeing many returns from the cloud mass which represents the developing "triple point" of the frontal wave which is currently located around 50 deg N and 12 deg W. The hot and humid air mass in the warm sector of this system is only on the surface in France, and is flowing in over a shallow inversion layer in Britain, but will be present just slightly aloft by midnight over much of western Britain and the southern Irish Sea. Lift potential looks very good with an approaching sharp trough and windshift.

Meteorite58

Watching that cluster of strikes off the South coast that last 40 mins and it seems to be heading straight for Kerry !

maquiladora

Getting a little more intense. About two dozen strikes picked up in the past 10 mins off the southwest coast.

Anyone around Clonakilty-Kinsale, might hear rumbles soon.

WheatenBriar

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Watching that cluster of strikes off the South coast that last 40 mins and it seems to be heading straight for Kerry !

More cork direction actually

Oneiric 3

Although not in the firing line, a dark layer of altostratus has taken on a very tortured, undulating look over these parts. Don't see that everyday.

sumtings

maquiladora wrote: »

Getting a little more intense. About two dozen strikes picked up in the past 10 mins off the southwest coast.

Anyone around Clonakilty-Kinsale, might hear rumbles soon.

That's exactly what's happening here in Clonakilty. Raining too, vertical almost.

maquiladora

First strikes appearing inland now, around Clonakilty.

sumtings

sumtings wrote: »

That's exactly what's happening here in Clonakilty. Raining too, vertical almost.

.and the biggest craic of thunder almost instantly after the lightning. Brightest flash and rattling windows

Elmer Blooker

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/
Look at that line of storms off Land's End. I know people on the Rosslare to France ferry at the moment. I wonder what happens when a ship is struck by lightning? I'm sure ships have lightning conductors but where does the lightning go with no earth under the ship?
Never really thought about it before to be honest.

frogloch

[QUOTE=Elmer Blooker;
Look at that line of storms off Land's End. I know people on the Rosslare to France ferry at the moment. I wonder what happens when a ship is struck by lightning? I'm sure ships have lightning conductors but where does the lightning go with no earth under the ship?
Never really thought about it before to be honest.[/QUOTE]
It disperses through the entire ocean

Oneiric 3

Looking SE at the mo. Perfect summer evening.

foxy farmer

sumtings wrote: »

.and the biggest craic of thunder almost instantly after the lightning. Brightest flash and rattling windows

Couple of miles east of it. Saw the flash and counted about 16 secs before i heard the rumble. Spitting rain but stopped now. Sky brightening here now.

maquiladora

Hopefully that was just a preview rather than the main event, because it seemed to die off almost as soon as it reached land.

Still 2-3 hours away from when the models were showing things kicking off around the southeast coast.

Edit : New sferics now, further east, about halfway between Cornwall and Ireland.

sumtings

foxy farmer wrote: »

Couple of miles east of it. Saw the flash and counted about 16 secs before i heard the rumble. Spitting rain but stopped now. Sky brightening here now.

Havent seen or heard anything since that one.

WheatenBriar

Do you know what I'm fairly convinced now that when that stuff gets further north engaging properly with what's coming out of GB it's going to be very sparky in the areas MT mentioned up the east coast and first across east Waterford Kilkenny wexford Carlos east Wicklow etc

jimmynokia

sumtings wrote: »

.and the biggest craic of thunder almost instantly after the lightning. Brightest flash and rattling windows

Kermit.de.frog

I am half expecting a show tonight. Fingers crossed.

teddybones

maquiladora wrote: »

Hopefully that was just a preview rather than the main event, because it seemed to die off almost as soon as it reached land.

Still 2-3 hours away from when the models were showing things kicking off around the southeast coast.

Edit : New sferics now, further east, about halfway between Cornwall and Ireland.

What does this mean? No show for the east? With regard to new sferics, that is.

WheatenBriar

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I am half expecting a show tonight. Fingers crossed.

Met Eireann have now said on their national forecast updated at 827 pm that the rain will be thundery...

Wanderer78

WheatenBriar wrote: »

Met Eireann have now said on their national forecast updated at 827 pm that the rain will be thundery...

very late in the game arent they?

dexter647

Very impressive looking sky out there..Not getting too excited though,what with met eireann not going along with what we are all hoping for, but you never know..Fingers and toes crossed

jimmynokia

Gone cold in DN22 and cloudy some light wind.:mad:

Oscar Bravo

the full 2027 update re tonight from Met Eireann

Becoming windy overnight, as a spell of heavy, thundery rain extends up across the country from the south and southwest, in fresh and gusty easterly winds. More showery conditions with clear spells, will follow later tonight. Winds will veer southwesterly and will be fresh to strong and gusty, along southern and western coasts. Very mild, lowest temperatures 13 to 15 C.

maquiladora

teddybones wrote: »

What does this mean? No show for the east? With regard to new sferics, that is.

Sferics refers to lightning strikes being detected.

If anything kicks off on the east coast it probably won't be for several hours, probably around 11pm-3am.

Super-Rush

Somethings brewing.