Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion: Spring/Summer 15

sumtings

maquiladora wrote: »

Some good news. Conditions (at the moment) looking good for a fairly broad risk of some thunderstorms popping up tomorrow. LI down to -7 and CAPE up to around 1500.

How does that forecast compare to the equivalent for last night?

maquiladora

sumtings wrote: »

How does that forecast compare to the equivalent for last night?

Clonmel1000

As Irish non events go that was epic.....

sumtings

maquiladora wrote: »

Some good news. Conditions (at the moment) looking good for a fairly broad risk of some thunderstorms popping up tomorrow. LI down to -7 and CAPE up to around 1500.

Yeah don't like the look of that! Knowing the damage it could bring. Best watching from across the Irish sea.

maquiladora

sumtings wrote: »

Yeah don't like the look of that! Knowing the damage it could bring. Best watching from across the Irish sea.

Wouldn't expect anything too severe here, certainly not anything like the huge storms the UK had last night.

WheatenBriar

Clonmel1000 wrote: »

As Irish non events go that was epic.....

Well I did see some lightning last night after but yeah

maquiladora

80,000+ strikes from those storms last night.

Rock Lesnar

Clonmel1000 wrote: »

As Irish non events go that was epic.....

What do you mean, i saw 1 lightening flash and heard 1 rumble of thunder, epic

Danno

Rock Lesnar wrote: »

What do you mean, i saw 1 lightening flash and heard 1 rumble of thunder, epic

Heard thunder and saw no flash - you lucky.

Aerohead

Just a question for the experts here, how come with non stop lightning like in the UK the storm does not run out of steam after a short time, just how much electricity is in these monsters

FWVT

Nice skew-t from Herstmonceux (southeastern England) in the thick of the action at 00Z showing an elevated mixed layer at 750 hPa and scope for huge CAPE from the warm humid layers lifted from above 950 hPa. Our problem was that we didn't have those layers to play with.

FWVT

Aerohead wrote: »

Just a question for the experts here, how come with non stop lightning like in the UK the storm does not run out of steam after a short time, just how much electricity is in these monsters

A lot of fuel at low levels and good support from upper levels, provided by that deep upper trough. The CAPE profile was pretty thick rather than thin so updrafts were very strong and able to sustain hail-generation longer.

WheatenBriar

At this stage it might be a good idea seeing we're all so bad at forecasting to start a thread on whether it will be daylight tomorrow
There's a fair chance we'd be right even on the timing and it might help with our confidence..

Met Eireann again spot on

RobertKK

Even though I was a child, I remember the talk about the 1985 storms, and the damage done by hail to crops and no power.
It was deafening the noise of it off the roof along with the thunder.
A Met Eireann rain recording station near me, about 2 to 3 miles away, recorded 21mm of rain in 15 minutes.

Probably what they got in the UK...

pad199207

maquiladora wrote: »

Some good news. Conditions (at the moment) looking good for a fairly broad risk of some thunderstorms popping up tomorrow. LI down to -7 and CAPE up to around 1500.

[/QUOTE

If any storms develop will they be slow moving?

lolie

Lightning map for the past few days.
What is it about the north see that keeps a lot of those big storms going?

djhaxman

Those lightning maps are highly frustrating.

djhaxman

The intensity and sheer number of strikes reminds me of the storms in Florida

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wvcUs_xTUVg

Rock Lesnar

lolie wrote: »

Lightning map for the past few days.
What is it about the north see that keeps a lot of those big storms going?

If Scotland had a bit more white over it, it would look like the Snow map for winter to

redsteveireland

Huge storm stretched across the middle of France, very impressive. www.sat24.com, tick the box for lightning.

maquiladora

pad199207 wrote: »

If any storms develop will they be slow moving?

You can see the speed of the cells here. It shows them popping up from around 1pm.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm.php?ech=3&mode=1&map=334

Iancar29

maquiladora wrote: »

You can see the speed of the cells here. It shows them popping up from around 1pm.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm.php?ech=3&mode=1&map=334

Yeah looks great for pulse type cells , lack of shear though not giving them the full severe potential . Still may head somewhere like the Hill of Tara and set up for a nice timelapse ! :cool:

maquiladora

Iancar29 wrote: »

Yeah looks great for pulse type cells , lack of shear though not giving them the full severe potential . Still may head somewhere like the Hill of Tara and set up for a nice timelapse ! :cool:

Reckon there's also a chance of some thundery showers tonight and early tomorrow morning, especially around southwest/south coasts?

Oneiric 3

Great capture of the approaching storm in the UK last night. Gets nice and loud later in the vid!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hmAlidjC6Uk

maquiladora

Yellow on this precip chart in meant to indicate storms.

lolie

Iancar29 wrote: »

Yeah looks great for pulse type cells , lack of shear though not giving them the full severe potential . Still may head somewhere like the Hill of Tara and set up for a nice timelapse ! :cool:

You think there'll be much up that side ian?
My mother's going to the annual outdoor mass at lough crew.
She says they seldom if ever get any rain at it.
I warned her they might not be so lucky tomorrow.

Trebor176

Hopefully the weather will be good for the Terenure Vintage Car Show tomorrow. The rain and possible thunderstorms can hold off until I get back home

Iancar29

lolie wrote: »

You think there'll be much up that side ian?
My mother's going to the annual outdoor mass at lough crew.
She says they seldom if ever get any rain at it.
I warned her they might not be so lucky tomorrow.

Its in the area where the cells should track but most importantly you can see for miles from the of the hill itself , perfect viewing point . Itll be a now cast situation for what cells go where though..

Storm 10

Some great pictures and video here from Bournemouth last night

http://www.bournemouthecho.co.uk/news/13370923.UPDATED_WITH_VIDEO__Flash_flooding_and_spectacular_skies_as_Dorset_hit_by__megastorm_/

http://www.bournemouthecho.co.uk/news/13370974.UPDATE__Lightning_strike_sparks_house_fire_in_Winton_during_ferocious_storm/

Iancar29

Hamburg webcam could get interesting soon. Severe cell heading right for it .
http://www.earthcam.com/germany/hamburg/?cam=hamburg_hd