Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion: Spring/Summer 15

gogreen81

Was reading this weather post
Tbh I Havnt seen much of lighting - severe thunderstorm here in ireland for last year or two since am here .
Also rain is not that heavy
Am I right in saying that ?

Clonmel1000

gogreen81 wrote: »

Was reading this weather post
Tbh I Havnt seen much of lighting - severe thunderstorm here in ireland for last year or two since am here .
Also rain is not that heavy
Am I right in saying that ?

Yes

Hal1

Few flashes on that webcam now.

Edit: one loud crack!

maquiladora

12Z for tomorrow.



Notice that one hour later there are big holes in the CAPE where the model has fired off a few storms in the east.

FWVT

Northern Leinster and southeastern Ulster look best for lightning tomorrow. Coldest pool at 500 hPa overlying a nice area of higher theta-e, and still hanging onto some DLS. We may see a few hours of pulse sferics through Kildare, Wicklow, Dublin, Meath and Louth in the afternoon. I think there's a better chance than there was last night, given the colder upper pool.

maquiladora

I see showers on the satellite popping up now way off at sea from the southwest coast and starting to produce a few sparks. Think there is a slight chance of these cropping up close to the south coast overnight/early tomorrow morning.

FWVT

maquiladora wrote: »

I see showers on the satellite popping up now way off at sea from the southwest coast and starting to produce a few sparks. Think there is a slight chance of these cropping up close to the south coast overnight/early tomorrow morning.

That's where the pool of coldest uppers is now.

SpaceTime

There have been some pretty huge non-charged thunder clouds over Cork for the last few hours. Very heavy showers, enough to actually almost stop the N25 earlier on as it was just a total deluge that you couldn't see through.

MidMan25

SpaceTime wrote: »

There have been some pretty huge non-charged thunder clouds over Cork for the last few hours. Very heavy showers, enough to actually almost stop the N25 earlier on as it was just a total deluge that you couldn't see through.

Whereabouts?

I live just off the N25 and didn't have more than a little drizzle!

maquiladora

EURO4 looking pretty showery early on. This is 9am.



2k WRF is bone dry at 9am. Slight difference there!

SpaceTime

MidMan25 wrote: »

Whereabouts?

I live just off the N25 and didn't have more than a little drizzle!

Just on the way in to Cork City on the 120km/h bit.

barney 20v

Just lost power here in mid Wexford- started raining - I suspect lightning to our south .

vickers209

Level 3 over Germany for wind gusts

50% chance of lightning over Ireland tomorrow

dubscottie

barney 20v wrote: »

Just lost power here in mid Wexford- started raining - I suspect lightning to our south .

Drunk person hitting a ESB pole with a car?

maquiladora

vickers209 wrote: »

50% chance of lightning over Ireland tomorrow

I think there is a 100% of lightning somewhere over Ireland tomorrow. The 50% refers to the probably of lightning within 40km of any point within that area.

FWVT

ECMWF CAPE at 12Z.

RobertKK

vickers209 wrote: »

Level 3 over Germany for wind gusts

50% chance of lightning over Ireland tomorrow

Just reading why they issued level 3 and level 2.

Damaging supercells likely to form with large to very large hail, tornadoes and excessive precipitation.
The derecho likely to have winds gusting in excess of 120km/hr.

The Tour de France started yesterday, it will be in a Level 2 warning area, yesterday they said today might be difficult with cross winds. It will be over before the risk of tornadoes appear.

RobertKK

Thunderstorms getting going about 200 miles south of our island. A number of consistent strikes.

Rikand

RobertKK wrote: »

Thunderstorms getting going about 200 miles south of our island. A number of consistent strikes.

Still going. Should be hitting the south coast in an hour if still going strong

maquiladora

Rikand wrote: »

Still going. Should be hitting the south coast in an hour if still going strong

I think that cell is dying. Some new cells might develop though.
Without sufficient shear these type of storms only have a lifespan of about an hour before they fizzle out.

Supercell

Wettest day in a long time here, had several downpours already, we seem to be in the firing line for the moment.

maquiladora

Thunder warning from Met Eireann.

STATUS YELLOW

Thunder Warning for Munster, Leinster, Cavan, Monaghan and Donegal

Risk of thundery downpours today.

Issued:
Sunday 05 July 2015 07:00
Valid:
Sunday 05 July 2015 08:00 to Sunday 05 July 2015 18:00

MidMan25

Had a few extremely intense and short showers last night, it was bucketing down! (East Cork)

pad199207

Heavy Rain here in Kildare this morning

RobertKK

Severe lightning over north west Germany already.
http://www.lightningmaps.org/realtime?lang=en trying to keep up with it.

maquiladora

Very dark skies to the southwest here. So far just a handful of strikes off the coast this morning.

pad199207

Not even a handful of strikes Maq. We shall see when those cells move on land. But I fear Solar Heating isn't sufficient enough just year. But hey it could spark off other discreet cells .

maquiladora

A spark now from the heavy shower over Louth.

Furez

Heard the same on probably south Co. Monaghan

maquiladora

pad199207 wrote: »

Not even a handful of strikes Maq. We shall see when those cells move on land. But I fear Solar Heating isn't sufficient enough just year. But hey it could spark off other discreet cells .

These type of storms usually pop up in the early afternoon so it's early days yet. We'll see what happens.