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Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion: Spring/Summer 15
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A warm sector develops slight CAPE, most of it elevated and over Ireland during the afternoon. There is enhanced SREH in GFS which may overlap with CAPE, as well as over 10 m/s 0-1 km shear and low LCLs. An isolated tornado may not be ruled out if a storm manages to form and organize.
Tony Gilbert:
Mid Atlantic low pressure remains quasi stationary with continued unstable moist flow northwards across Ireland. Strong divergent upper jet stream overlays CAPE at front left exit region. Cold front expected to develop convective showers. Some of which might become thundery. DLS and LLS sufficient for storms to potentially develop an isolated tornado event as per map.Conditions look to peak in association with triple point north central region late afternoon just west of Omagh through to Cardonagh 16z-19z .My attention was drawn to this outlook by the NMM model predicting as much as 550 m2/s2 SRH values. This is quite a remarkable prediction.
Convective Weather UK :Full text discussion will be written on Monday morning - however, some upgrades may be required to parts of Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland if conditions continue to look favourable for low-topped supercells and perhaps a tornado given strong DLS/LLS, favourably-backed surface winds and curved hodographs.
Having said all that....CAPE values have been reduced on the latest model run compared to yesterdays more interesting charts. So, we'll see. But don't be shocked if a storm doesn't manage to get going at all!0 -
maquiladora wrote: »
Tony Gilbert:
Convective Weather UK :
Having said all that....CAPE values have been reduced on the latest model run compared to yesterdays more interesting charts. So, we'll see. But don't be shocked if a storm doesn't manage to get going at all!
Shall be in the hospital this afternoon for blood tests so hopefully shall be home in time to monitor the situation . NW's NMM always seems to be more realistic with instability compared to the Meteociel version .0 -
For what it's worth.
... REPUBLIC OF IRELAND / NORTHERN IRELAND ...
In the wake of morning rainfall, advection of a warm, moist surface airmass (characterised by dewpoints of 15-17C) beneath the forward flank of an Atlantic upper trough will generate instability in the order of 300-700 Jkg-1 CAPE. Expect scattered showers and a few thunderstorms to form this afternoon across W/SW Ireland, moving/expanding NEwards with time towards Northern Ireland (particularly western parts) by evening. With the jet aloft, 40-50kts DLS will allow storms to become organised; indeed with a surface low to the west of Ireland, surface winds farther north will be increasingly backed, suggesting the potential for low-topped supercells. Rather low LCLs (given the high dewpoints) and strong LLS also increases the chance for a tornado, especially given very curved hodographs - particularly over northern parts of the SLGT where the best backed surface winds will be present.
Some small hail is possible, although rather moist profiles may limit the hail potential somewhat. Nevertheless, with PWAT 25-30mm, there will be a risk of localised flash flooding from slow-moving torrential downpours. Given our criteria for issuing a SVR threat level, have issued a SVR primarily for the isolated tornado threat (hence majority of area will technically remain below SVR threshold, given low point probability) and to a lesser extent for the risk of excessive rainfall.0 -
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Just looking at met.ie weather radar and I can see some white patches showing. Is that 32mm/hr then? Over galway / tuam area.
I noticed that too but looking at the Netweather radar it appears it not.
http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=radar;sess=0 -
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I noticed that too but looking at the Netweather radar it appears it not.
http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=radar;sess=
Top rate of 32,8mm at 2.35pm as that passed through. Certainly looks intense looking as it slices up to my east over the last half hour with some really evil looking, fast moving low scud. These type of summer streamers can bring some really high totals locally within a short time scale.
New Moon
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Top rate of 32,8mm at 2.35pm as that passed through. Certainly looks intense looking as it slices up to my east over the last half hour with some really evil looking, fast moving low scud. These type of summer streamers can bring some really high totals locally within a short time scale.
I just missed it and there was alot of scud hanging around so I couldn't get a decent shot of the back of it.0 -
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