"We need to ask if society in Ireland really is broken"

conorh91

Every year, Edelman researches how well people in different countries trust their 'big four' institutions: NGOs, government, media, and business.

This years Ireland report has achieved very little attention, but it indicates that Irish people's trust in all of these institutions has fallen, and shows that Ireland is one of the least-trusting countries surveyed.

Summary

• Trust in government is back to pre-general election levels.
• NGOs are the best-trusted institution, despite having fallen to 58%
• Only 38% of people trust private businesses, which is not surprising given the economic crash. However, slightly less (37%) trust the media, which is remarkable
• About 1 in 5 people trust the government (i.e. all of the public institutions)

"Mark Cahalane, Managing Director, Edelman Ireland said: “This year’s Irish findings are somewhat stark and perhaps we need to ask if society in Ireland really is broken. There is an expectation of government to keep business in line, yet government itself is far less trusted than business. At the same time media and NGOs, who we expect to advocate for change, are also exhibiting signs of declining levels of trust. Arguably the opportunity now exists for business and business leaders to begin to drive an agenda for change. CEOs and other business leaders must be brave enough to make that move, but when they do, it is likely that others will follow.”

This anti-establishment feeling is reflected in a swing toward the anti-establishment political representation (SF, AAA, Independents). I think this survey should be a massive wake-up call to the Government (and indeed, media organizations), because if this trend continues, Ireland risks undermining its economic recovery and cohesion in its society.

Business & Leadership article on Edelman report for Ireland

BoJack Horseman

Solutions?

(And where does increased scepticism with politicians lead to a causative contraction in GDP?)

conorh91

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

And where does increased scepticism with politicians lead to a causative contraction in GDP?

My contention is that the electoral success of anti-establishment parties (whose economic policies are either non-existent or risk damaging the economy) risks undermining the recovery.

The anti-establishment feeling may tend to encourage 'tax revolt' in respect of water charges, which may lead to weak investment in our water infrastructure, or higher taxes elsewhere in the economy.

Higher frequency of workers' strikes; instability in government, and political 'jitters' leading to government inability to take strong decisions are further possible outcomes.

I mean, social discord is not a good starting-point for economic growth. That seems fairly obvious.

BoJack Horseman

Fair point.

I just don't think the government need to necessarily "do" anything.

Pandering to an anarcho-communist & ultra nationalist fringe groups to make the population feel less sceptical may not make any difference.

Once the institutions are & are seen to be: competent, transparent & honest, scepticism will wane & antidemocratic groups disappear.

SpaceTime

It's hardly surprising :

Government mishandled the economy causing an economic meltdown a few years ago.
Private business : namely banks appear to have hidden problems, extorted state aid, lied, etc etc
Charity organisations exposed for huge financial irregularities and the religious charities were embroiled in abuse scandals.

The public would be totally right and rational to have lost confidence.

The government has done very little too visibly improve transparency and accountability. The banks appear to be prepared to carry on as if nothing happened and the NGO scandals keep coming, especially in the church related ones. More importantly, nothing serious seems to get done in response.

The institutions of state have a lot of humble pie to eat and so far they've ignored that reality.

You'll see a major shift in politics here if these things don't change.

There needs to be a massive shift in government culture (including the civil service and state bodies) to show they're transparent, accountable and efficient.

Changing the political parties around won't help as I don't think SF will realistically be much of an opening up move. They've a history of cover ups, spin and ignoring massive scandal too. I think they'll risk being a total disappointment in government.

Larbre34

We don't have it that bad in Ireland compared to many other countries. Sure, we have suffered a massive crash and shock to the fundamentals of everything, but in reality we live in an enlightened and tolerant first world country, which is still relatively wealthy.

The corruption index shows Ireland to be joint 17th in the list of least corrupt nations, down to Somalia in 174th and most corrupt.

The crash and fallout has seen a massive increase in scrutiny of public bodies and other entities and that is no harm. In the next few years that will become the new norm.

Irish people by their nature are wary and skeptical, but also informed and involved. A little cynicism is a healthy thing. Keep calm and carry on.

conorh91

Larbre34 wrote: »

We don't have it that bad in Ireland compared to many other countries. Sure, we have suffered a massive crash and shock to the fundamentals of everything, but in reality we live in an enlightened and tolerant first world country, which is still relatively wealthy.

The corruption index shows Ireland to be joint 17th in the list of least corrupt nations, down to Somalia in 174th and most corrupt.

Someone always pulls out the Somalia card.

Are we as bad as Somalia?
If not, carry on.

The correct measure is whether the institutions are meeting the standards that are expected of them here, at home, not Somalia.

The crash and fallout has seen a massive increase in scrutiny of public bodies and other entities and that is no harm. In the next few years that will become the new norm.

Except the crash was 2008/09.

These institutions have been regaining trust in subsequent years, but things fell apart in 2014. I would cite legitimate concerns with issues of Garda management and Alan Shatter, Irish water (some contrived, some legitimate), and the John McNulty affair as possible sources of increased distrust of government. These blunders are fodder for public cynicism, which is not as benign as you seem to think it is.

Scofflaw

conorh91 wrote: »

Someone always pulls out the Somalia card.

Are we as bad as Somalia?
If not, carry on.

The correct measure is whether the institutions are meeting the standards that are expected of them here, at home, not Somalia.

Except the crash was 2008/09.

These institutions have been regaining trust in subsequent years, but things fell apart in 2014. I would cite legitimate concerns with issues of Garda management and Alan Shatter, Irish water (some contrived, some legitimate), and the John McNulty affair as possible sources of increased distrust of government. These blunders are fodder for public cynicism, which is not as benign as you seem to think it is.

I'm not sure that the Edelman report, or the linked article, bears out much of what you say, though. For example, you're giving reasons why trust in government might have fallen recently, but trust in government has risen:

And, despite a five-point increase to 26pc, Government remains the least trusted of the four institutions in Ireland.

Looking back through previous Edelman reports, the pattern for trust in government goes like this:

2010:28%
2011:20%
2012:20%
2013:21%
2014:26%

That looks rather more like a collapse in trust in 2010/11 (I wonder why?) followed by slow restoration.

cordially,
Scofflaw

Eugene Norman

Larbre34 wrote: »

We don't have it that bad in Ireland compared to many other countries. Sure, we have suffered a massive crash and shock to the fundamentals of everything, but in reality we live in an enlightened and tolerant first world country, which is still relatively wealthy.

The corruption index shows Ireland to be joint 17th in the list of least corrupt nations, down to Somalia in 174th and most corrupt.

The crash and fallout has seen a massive increase in scrutiny of public bodies and other entities and that is no harm. In the next few years that will become the new norm.

Irish people by their nature are wary and skeptical, but also informed and involved. A little cynicism is a healthy thing. Keep calm and carry on.

We are top, but too of a heap of ****. Ireland is corrupt and incompetently run but still better than most countries by far. The world basically sucks.

Eugene Norman

Scofflaw wrote: »

I'm not sure that the Edelman report, or the linked article, bears out much of what you say, though. For example, you're giving reasons why trust in government might have fallen recently, but trust in government has risen:



Looking back through previous Edelman reports, the pattern for trust in government goes like this:

2010:28%
2011:20%
2012:20%
2013:21%
2014:26%

That looks rather more like a collapse in trust in 2010/11 (I wonder why?) followed by slow restoration.

cordially,
Scofflaw

A "collapse" from a large majority to a large majority not trusting government followed by a "restoration" back to a large majority not trusting government is what I see.

If these were school grades they would all be Fs and the teacher wouldnt be sending letters home saying the increase from 21% to 26% was welcome and showing an improvement. It would be just a continuous fail.

conorh91

Scofflaw wrote: »

I'm not sure that the Edelman report, or the linked article, bears out much of what you say, though. For example, you're giving reasons why trust in government might have fallen recently, but trust in government has risen:

2010:28%
2011:20%
2012:20%
2013:21%
2014:26%

That looks rather more like a collapse in trust in 2010/11 (I wonder why?) followed by slow restoration.

cordially,
Scofflaw

I was basing my comment on what I read in last year's barometer, which said:

The 2014 Edelman Trust Barometer’s Irish findings reveal a significant (11 points) drop in trust in government in Ireland over the past 12 months.http://www.edelman.ie/edelman-ireland-trust-barometer-2014/

This would have put public trust in government during 2013 at 35%.

I haven't delved too deeply into this, but that's where my statement came from.

hatrickpatrick

conorh91 wrote: »

(37%) trust the media, which is remarkable

Why is it remarkable? The media in Ireland largely kowtows to the establishment line. Paul Reynolds is a good example - the "crime correspondent" who persistently pedals only the Garda agenda in his reporting of alleged crimes. Ryan Tubridy who interviewed Paul Murphy in a manner which you would never see a government spokesman interviewed. Carole Coleman who was dragged over the coals (couldn't resist, sorry ) for actually asking George Bush tough questions instead of worshipping him as a celebrity. The Irish Independent which fired a journalist for "harassing" the Garda commissioner who subsequently resigned under the weight of scandal after scandal.

Need I go on? The state sponsored media which our license fees are paying for is an absolute joke. And I say that as someone who has many, many extremely close family ties to RTE. Vincent Browne is the only program I currently trust to pick the government line apart instead of merely trumpeting it.

I wouldn't always have said this about the Irish media by the way. I don't know if anyone agrees, but I would say it has been sliding dramatically towards being a propaganda organisation in recent years, from a previous point at which it wasn't so bad?

I doubt someone willing to intelligently explain why government policy is moronic, like George Lee, would get employed in a prominent position now.

Scofflaw

conorh91 wrote: »

I was basing my comment on what I read in last year's barometer, which said:


This would have put public trust in government during 2013 at 35%.

I haven't delved too deeply into this, but that's where my statement came from.

And having dug around some more, while it doesn't seem to have been 35%, it does appear to have been 32% - my figures above were based on reading the press releases for each Edelman survey, and I think they may have referred to different things as 'government' in some cases. So I was incorrect to correct you, for which I apologise!

There's a full-deck presentation of the "2013" results here, though: http://www.pkellypr.com/blog/2013/01/2013-irish-results-for-edelman-trust-barometer/

And that has "trust in government" at:

2012: 35%
2013: 32%

The "2014" result is then 21%, and the most recent one is 26%.

However, despite me being wrong, I fear you still can't use the figures to support a thesis in which events in 2014 produce a collapse in trust in government, because the barometers are published in January following fieldwork in November the preceding year.

The correct result for the change in trust in government in 2014, then, is the rise indicated in the 2015 (most recent) barometer:

Despite a five-point increase to 26%, Government remains the least trusted of the four institutions in Ireland.

So whatever happened to damage trust in government, it had already happened by November 2013, which I'd personally see as more probable - by that stage it was clear the current government was not going to be any kind of break with either the troika programme or with the habits of its predecessors - and was when they were creating Irish Water.

cordially,
Scofflaw

conorh91

Scofflaw wrote: »

However, despite me being wrong, I fear you still can't use the figures to support a thesis in which events in 2014 produce a collapse in trust in government, because the barometers are published in January following fieldwork in November the preceding year.

That's not really the crux of what I was saying. I initially assumed the 2014 report pertained to 2014; it turns out it pertained to 2013.

Whether trust collapsed in 2013 or 2014 is not particularly important to the core issue, which is that trust did collapse and has not recovered; that distrust of government anywhere in the range of 70% is unacceptably high; that distrust in this range is potentially damaging to the economy.

The precise figures in a survey of this nature is all a bit tangental.

Scofflaw

conorh91 wrote: »

That's not really the crux of what I was saying. I initially assumed the 2014 report pertained to 2014; it turns out it pertained to 2013.

Whether trust collapsed in 2013 or 2014 is not particularly important to the core issue, which is that trust did collapse and has not recovered; that distrust of government anywhere in the range of 70% is unacceptably high; that distrust in this range is potentially damaging to the economy.

The precise figures in a survey of this nature is all a bit tangental.

You did offer some specific 2014 events as an explanation, though - nor would I really regard a fall from 35% to 26% as a game-changer in any way, particularly given that trust in 2010 was apparently also well below that 35%.

To take your main point, though - I'd agree that trust in government is necessary in a modern economy, but is the kind of trust involved the trust that's measured by the Edelamn survey? I'm not sure it is.

I don't think there's any wide-scale breakdown in the trust in the process of government, if you like - the day to day operations of the civil service and the other agencies of the state - which would indeed be grave. I would have said that the "trust in government" being measured here is trust in the 'political' government, where trust has always been in much shorter supply with much less effect (after all, after any given election, up to half the electorate is almost by definition going to distrust the new political government).

cordially,
Scofflaw