England potentially set to lose 4th CL spot

batistuta9

Ulysses Gaze wrote: »

No-one thought Italy would lose their 4 slots given that Milan won the Champions League in 2007 and Inter won it 2010.....but lose it they did.

Only takes a couple of years of bad performances for the thing to change.

the EL is a important factor, when italy lost that place to germany, not once did german teams go further than them in the CL. EL is also a reason why portugal, ukraine are so high

if the english teams in the EL - and it'll be 2 from arsenal, man u, liverpool & tottenham - decide to focus on the league instead it could end up costing them.
southampton might give it a good go if they're in it

Ferris_Bueller

It would be kind of funny if teams such as Liverpool, Arsenal, United and Spurs who are all battling for two CL spots this season deemed the Europa League unnecessary hassle and as a result of their poor performances in the EL they lose out on a spot in the Champions League.

dreamers75

Ferris_Bueller wrote: »

It would be kind of funny if teams such as Liverpool, Arsenal, United and Spurs who are all battling for two CL spots this season deemed the Europa League unnecessary hassle and as a result of their poor performances in the EL they lose out on a spot in the Champions League.

I would call it deserved. Every other country treats the EL with a full team EPL teams try all year to get into it then try to get out it early with kids.

Ferris_Bueller

Ferris_Bueller wrote: »

It would be kind of funny if teams such as Liverpool, Arsenal, United and Spurs who are all battling for two CL spots this season deemed the Europa League unnecessary hassle and as a result of their poor performances in the EL they lose out on a spot in the Champions League.

This is incorrect

Neither Arsenal or Utd were in the Europa this season for a start.

Liverpool gave it a go but performances in Europe were just poor this season from them.

Spurs were beaten by the better team in Fiorentina in the last 32. They rested Kane iirc in anticipation of the league cup final. Apart from that they were fairly strong.

KaiserGunner

rarnes1 wrote: »

This is incorrect

Neither Arsenal or Utd were in the Europa this season for a start.

Liverpool gave it a go but performances in Europe were just poor this season from them.

Spurs were beaten by the better team in Fiorentina in the last 32. They rested Kane iirc in anticipation of the league cup final. Apart from that they were fairly strong.

True, sure Arsenal haven't been in the Europa League since 2000 and got to the final that year.

GLaDOS

3 Italian sides through in Europe, Juve in the CL and Napoli and Fiorentina tonight in the EL. Juve will have a tough draw regardless in the CL, but you'd fancy at least one of Napoli or Fiorentina to get to the EL final. Hypothetically if there was to be an all Italian EL and Juve got through to the CL final, it'd put some pressure on English teams to perform next year.

paulbok

And with the change in seedings, the groups will be that little bit more difficult.

patmac

This is a great site for Coefficients
http://kassiesa.home.xs4all.nl/bert/uefa/data/method4/crank2015.html
The problem might not be next year or the year after, but if English clubs don't out perform their Italian Counterparts over the coming seasons then 4th place could be the norm. With 3 Italian and 1 German club still left in Europe this year every draw and win earned in the Semi-Finals will bring Italy and Germany closer to England. Current standings are.
2015
1 Spain 98.142
2 England 80.391
3 Germany 79.129
4 Italy 69.676 3/ 6

2016
1 Spain 79.928
2 Germany 63.463
3 England 62.034
4 Italy 58.105
2017
1 Spain 59.071
2 Germany 48.213
3 England 46.784
4 Italy 46.748
2018
1 Spain 41.357
2 Italy 32.332
3 England 30.356
4 Germany 30.285

Beefy78

Lets be honest - it's more likely that UEFA will change the system than they will take a place away from England. They're all about the €€€s and the UK TV audience is one of their main markets.

The likes of Heineken won't be happy at all if the English participation in a tournament that they put huge amounts of money into is cut by 25%.

LuckyLloyd

Beefy78 wrote: »

Lets be honest - it's more likely that UEFA will change the system than they will take a place away from England. They're all about the €€€s and the UK TV audience is one of their main markets.

The likes of Heineken won't be happy at all if the English participation in a tournament that they put huge amounts of money into is cut by 25%.

Yeah, I suppose I didn't think about it that way but you could well be right. The only pause I'd have there is that Platini has pushed things with respect to CL qualification routes and revenue distribution that is anti the big leagues. I mean we're getting used to it now, but it wasn't long ago that the fourth place English team or second Dutch team, etc were more likely to face Hungarian / Austrian / Bulgarian champs over two legs than each other and that was largely due to Platini's influence.

Knex*

Beefy78 wrote: »

Lets be honest - it's more likely that UEFA will change the system than they will take a place away from England. They're all about the €€€s and the UK TV audience is one of their main markets.

The likes of Heineken won't be happy at all if the English participation in a tournament that they put huge amounts of money into is cut by 25%.

As a cynical fecker myself, I am surprised I never thought of it this way.

ArmaniJeanss

In fairness the financial people have accepted for ~6 years that there are only 3 Italian teams (big market) and previous to that there was only 3 German teams (bigger market) for some years.

And most crucially back circa 2000/01/02 England only had 3 places whilst the other three big leagues had four places, and England had to coefficient their way to the extra place rather than have it handed to them by the money men.

Obviously the BT/England deal is now by some way the biggest pot, but precedence would make me hopeful that UEFA will play this one straight.

LuckyLloyd

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

In fairness the financial people have accepted for ~6 years that there are only 3 Italian teams (big market) and previous to that there was only 3 German teams (bigger market) for some years.

And most crucially back circa 2000/01/02 England only had 3 places whilst the other three big leagues had four places, and England had to coefficient their way to the extra place rather than have it handed to them by the money men.

Obviously the BT/England deal is now by some way the biggest pot, but precedence would make me hopeful that UEFA will play this one straight.

We can but hope. I would certainly enjoy bashing droolers in the 'it's so unfair the EPL is the bestest' debate were it to come to pass.

Oat23

If they were to change the rules for England after Italy/Germany having to play without a 4th spot for years, I won't be watching any more UEFA competitons.

It would be the same as the PL changing the CL qualifying rules after United missed out on a spot just because they are the biggest revenue generator for the league.

What kind of message would it send? The rest of you have to play by the rules set out years ago, except England because they make us the most money.

The Argentinian FA did something similar with their relegation system a few years ago to get River back into the top tier faster.

brevity

It would sour the whole thing if they changed it all to suit England.

Its one thing that the English game is more popular and therefore gets more money but if it doesn't take advantage of that popularity and loses its 4th place then tough ****.

niallo27

Has anyone actually been in an arguement recenty where some argued the EPL was actually the best league in the world. Going by the reactions on here it seems to be a daily occurance for people but i never have come across it myself personally.

Smithwicks Man

niallo27 wrote: »

Has anyone actually been in an arguement recenty where some argued the EPL was actually the best league in the world. Going by the reactions on here it seems to be a daily occurance for people but i never have come across it myself personally.

Hear it being said regularly enough, even a few times recently.

Truth be told it hasn't been the top league for a few years now.

RedemptionZ

niallo27 wrote: »

Has anyone actually been in an arguement recenty where some argued the EPL was actually the best league in the world. Going by the reactions on here it seems to be a daily occurance for people but i never have come across it myself personally.

Yeah I do a lot, I'd say most casual EPL fans would always say that, because it's all they're really exposed to, hell a lot of em would only watch Match of the day or some highlights on YouTube.

niallo27

RedemptionZ wrote: »

Yeah I do a lot, I'd say most casual EPL fans would always say that, because it's all they're really exposed to, hell a lot of em would only watch Match of the day or some highlights on YouTube.

Is it a younger generation thing because none of the lads i talk to at work about football would ever bring it up. It is not even an issue for me, the premier league will always be whats its all about for me and it doesnt really bother me if its thought of as the best league or not.

Andersonisgod

niallo27 wrote: »

Is it a younger generation thing because none of the lads i talk to at work about football would ever bring it up. It is not even an issue for me, the premier league will always be whats its all about for me and it doesnt really bother me if its thought of as the best league or not.

I don't think it's just a younger generation thing. The amount you hear from strangers or people you know talk only about the English game and speak of their English club, and city rivals, as though they were across the street is truly alarming. Inevitably when they do reference a non English club its either they talk about a CL game where the opponent was an English club or it's the World Cup final.

Basically people with an incredibly narrow view of football.

patmac

patmac wrote: »

This is a great site for Coefficients
http://kassiesa.home.xs4all.nl/bert/uefa/data/method4/crank2015.html
The problem might not be next year or the year after, but if English clubs don't out perform their Italian Counterparts over the coming seasons then 4th place could be the norm. With 3 Italian and 1 German club still left in Europe this year every draw and win earned in the Semi-Finals will bring Italy and Germany closer to England. Current standings are.
2015
1 Spain 98.142
2 England 80.391
3 Germany 79.129
4 Italy 69.676 3/ 6

2016
1 Spain 79.928
2 Germany 63.463
3 England 62.034
4 Italy 58.105
2017
1 Spain 59.071
2 Germany 48.213
3 England 46.784
4 Italy 46.748
2018
1 Spain 41.357
2 Italy 32.332
3 England 30.356
4 Germany 30.285

Is this about Germany being ****ed or England being ****ed?

Smithwicks Man

Andersonisgod wrote: »

I don't think it's just a younger generation thing. The amount you hear from strangers or people you know talk only about the English game and speak of their English club, and city rivals, as though they were across the street is truly alarming. Inevitably when they do reference a non English club its either they talk about a CL game where the opponent was an English club or it's the World Cup final.

Basically people with an incredibly narrow view of football.

You also get people commenting negatively about "diving in La Liga" or the "amount of 0-0's in Serie A" when the reality is that they never watch any league other than the Premiership and so their opinion is invalid when comparing them.

RedemptionZ

Smithwicks Man wrote: »

You also get people commenting negatively about "diving in La Liga" or the "amount of 0-0's in Serie A" when the reality is that they never watch any league other than the Premiership and so their opinion is invalid when comparing them.

Exactly, just loads of people spoofing pretending to be knowledgeable. Same when I try to talk to people about the LOI. I'm not a fan by any means but I'm a reasonable person and always come to it's defence when people just say, it's dire football, terrible skill level etc. How would you know if you haven't watched any games from the league before??

Irritates me to no end but such is the arrogance/ignorance of most sports fans.

batistuta9

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

In fairness the financial people have accepted for ~6 years that there are only 3 Italian teams (big market) and previous to that there was only 3 German teams (bigger market) for some years.

And most crucially back circa 2000/01/02 England only had 3 places whilst the other three big leagues had four places, and England had to coefficient their way to the extra place rather than have it handed to them by the money men.

Obviously the BT/England deal is now by some way the biggest pot, but precedence would make me hopeful that UEFA will play this one straight.

exactly & i think it's a ludicrous suggestion/conspiracy theory myself. especially given the fact sky will be out to next the rights back in the next bidding process, they'll get plenty of money for england.

with the way the money is distributed & the new BT deal kicking in next season, it'd actually be better for the finances of the english clubs if they lost a place for a season or two. less teams to divvy it up between

PSG & Juve/italian clubs have benefited this way. last season PSG got the second highest payout, €3mil less then Real & they were KO'd in the quarters.

niallo27

Andersonisgod wrote: »

I don't think it's just a younger generation thing. The amount you hear from strangers or people you know talk only about the English game and speak of their English club, and city rivals, as though they were across the street is truly alarming. Inevitably when they do reference a non English club its either they talk about a CL game where the opponent was an English club or it's the World Cup final.

Basically people with an incredibly narrow view of football.

I only talk about english football myself. I would watch the big gmaes in spain and CL but its only english football for me as thats all i am interested in.

Andersonisgod

niallo27 wrote: »

I only talk about english football myself. I would watch the big gmaes in spain and CL but its only english football for me as thats all i am interested in.

Well there's not a lot anyone else can do about that but what a shame that you'd rather not broaden your horizons.

No harm if England lost a place or 2.

It's fairly depressing that clubs including my own see 4th place as a target each season.

Oat23

How are things looking now with Southampton out too?

Oat23

Oat23 wrote: »

How are things looking now with Southampton out too?

A poor year for English clubs and it'll be close enough.

Would be a good wake up call for the best league in the world..

pmasterson95

rarnes1 wrote: »

A poor year for English clubs and it'll be close enough.

Would be a good wake up call for the best league in the world..

The LOI?

Mushy

pmasterson95 wrote: »

The LOI?

No, that's the #greatestleagueintheworld, not best!

Francie Barrett

Oat23 wrote: »

How are things looking now with Southampton out too?

England have started badly with two teams knocked out. However Italy have also started badly with Sampdoria being knocked out of the Europa League and Lazio out of the Champions League (leaving Italy with only 2 CL representatives, thus missing out on vital bonus points).

Europa League will really be key. Italy had 2 semi-finalists last year and that really juiced their co-efficient. If Liverpool and Spurs were to have early exits, then it'll be itchy bum time.

Maximus Alexander

United are back in it now so there's nothing to worry about, coefficient will be back on the rise.

Giggsy11

Francie Barrett wrote: »

England have started badly with two teams knocked out. However Italy have also started badly with Sampdoria being knocked out of the Europa League and Lazio out of the Champions League (leaving Italy with only 2 CL representatives, thus missing out on vital bonus points).

Europa League will really be key. Italy had 2 semi-finalists last year and that really juiced their co-efficient. If Liverpool and Spurs were to have early exits, then it'll be itchy bum time.

In a way it's good for Italian football that Lazio are in Europa. They wouldn't have won many games in CL but they can in Europa if they take it seriously.

batistuta9

Oat23 wrote: »

How are things looking now with Southampton out too?

current. would apply for the 17/18 season
http://kassiesa.home.xs4all.nl/bert/uefa/data/method4/crank2016.html

spain = 85.142
germany = 66.749
england = 65.034
italy = 60.605

GavRedKing

Chelsea got an easy enough group.

Utd got a dream group. Arsenal will qualify and even though City got a tough draw, they should also go through.

Which would help the English co-efficient points. It depends then on how many teams and how far they go through the ko stages. But id fancy at least 1 of them to get to the QF's.

brianregan09

I think Chelsea, City and Arsenal are capable of making the quarter finals depending on the luck of the draw in the last 16

Godot.

There's a good chance Arsenal and City will finish runners up and go out in the last 16 to top drawer sides. Man United will top their group but are are nothing special at this moment in time.

The Premier League is in trouble. Each win in Europe now has 25% knocked off it's value because of West Ham and Southampton.

rwbug

Time to start worrying? Really would have helped if City could beat/knock out Juve and keep Italian score down. Both City and Utd need to recover especially if Europa League entrants don't bother their arse with the tourney again.

3 champs league places getting closer

Kirby

rwbug wrote: »

Time to start worrying? Really would have helped if City could beat/knock out Juve and keep Italian score down. Both City and Utd need to recover especially if Europa League entrants don't bother their arse with the tourney again.

3 champs league places getting closer

As bad as United are, they will surely qualify. Lets not be overly dramatic after one game. City were expected to lose to Juventus and they did so thats not a shock really.

It's a good thing if they do lose a place imo.

4 is too many anyway. Finishing 4th shouldn't be a celebration, or 2nd or 3rd for that matter.

Shanotheslayer

Kirby wrote: »

As bad as United are, they will surely qualify. Lets not be overly dramatic after one game. City were expected to lose to Juventus and they did so thats not a shock really.

Really? The bookies didn't know that. You must have made a killing on Juve at 7/2 so.

Vicxas

If English teams don't do well this year, and the Italians do better i think they were saying that in 2017 the 4th English CL spot would be under threat.

Sappy404

Is it not the case that the 3rd automatic place would go back to being a qualifier place before anything happened to the 4th spot?

GLaDOS

Sappy404 wrote: »

Is it not the case that the 3rd automatic place would go back to being a qualifier place before anything happened to the 4th spot?

Nope, if Italy overtakes them they lose the 4th spot and 3rd becomes a qualifier.

Allocations are outlined here

Francie Barrett

Great to see anti-English bigotry is still alive and well judging by many of the comments on here since last night.

For all the criticism of "English" football, let's face it, it's not the English bit that's the problem. Out of all the English teams in the CL, no owners are English, no managers are English and 90% of the players aren't English.

Anyway, I don't think the prospect of England losing the CL spot is realistic. There is a tide of money behind English football that is only growing higher and realistically, less well off clubs on the continent can't stand against that in the long-term.

Mr.H

Francie Barrett wrote: »

Great to see anti-English bigotry is still alive and well judging by many of the comments on here since last night.

For all the criticism of "English" football, let's face it, it's not the English bit that's the problem. Out of all the English teams in the CL, no owners are English, no managers are English and 90% of the players aren't English.

Anyway, I don't think the prospect of England losing the CL spot is realistic. There is a tide of money behind English football that is only growing higher and realistically, less well off clubs on the continent can't stand against that in the long-term.

If you dont think its a realistic notion your not watching the game

The EPL could very easily lose the 4th spot.

Italian teams could do well this year (Juve look solid even though they lost players)

English teams may not do well.

United arent exactly showing Liverpool how to play CL football and I wouldnt be surprised if they went out in the group. Losing to Wolfsburg and CSKA is a real possibility. IF they dont make the most of their home games they could well be meeting Liverpool on the Thursday night show.

City have a tough group with Sevilla and Juve but should beat the german side Gladbachan. But again they could easily be looking at 3-4 games that they wont win in that group. Sevilla looked good in the EL last season and Domestically they are solid (while not being contenders).

Arsenal are Arsenal. They are the proverbial bridesmaids. But Bayern Olympicos and Zagreb could be tough. The germans will likely get 3,4 or 6 points from them. The greeks could beat them in Greece. That leaves a nervery home game against the greeks that could decide their faith. They should go through but its not certain.

Roma have Barca, Leverkusen and BATE Borisov
Juve have City Sevilla and Gladbachan


Saving grace is that Lazio didnt qualify. But the thing is if you put the 6 teams together (english and Italian) who do you think can go the furthest?


So saying it isnt realistic is just naive

Mr.H

Mr.H wrote: »

If you dont think its a realistic notion your not watching the game

The EPL could very easily lose the 4th spot.

Italian teams could do well this year (Juve look solid even though they lost players)

English teams may not do well.

United arent exactly showing Liverpool how to play CL football and I wouldnt be surprised if they went out in the group. Losing to Wolfsburg and CSKA is a real possibility. IF they dont make the most of their home games they could well be meeting Liverpool on the Thursday night show.

City have a tough group with Sevilla and Juve but should beat the german side Gladbachan. But again they could easily be looking at 3-4 games that they wont win in that group. Sevilla looked good in the EL last season and Domestically they are solid (while not being contenders).

Arsenal are Arsenal. They are the proverbial bridesmaids. But Bayern Olympicos and Zagreb could be tough. The germans will likely get 3,4 or 6 points from them. The greeks could beat them in Greece. That leaves a nervery home game against the greeks that could decide their faith. They should go through but its not certain.

Roma have Barca, Leverkusen and BATE Borisov
Juve have City Sevilla and Gladbachan


Saving grace is that Lazio didnt qualify. But the thing is if you put the 6 teams together (english and Italian) who do you think can go the furthest?


So saying it isnt realistic is just naive

I'd add that I wouldn't expect English trams to fare too well in the Europa League. Liverpool for one look poor in Europe under Rodgers since he became manager

GLaDOS

When the 11/12 points are taken out of the equation for next year Italy and England are almost neck and neck. Italy only needs to outperform England slightly this year to go ahead.

dan1895

Francie Barrett wrote: »

Great to see anti-English bigotry is still alive and well judging by many of the comments on here since last night.

For all the criticism of "English" football, let's face it, it's not the English bit that's the problem. Out of all the English teams in the CL, no owners are English, no managers are English and 90% of the players aren't English.

Anyway, I don't think the prospect of England losing the CL spot is realistic. There is a tide of money behind English football that is only growing higher and realistically, less well off clubs on the continent can't stand against that in the long-term.

Is it anti English bigotry though? For me I'd be happy to see English teams fall flat on their faces in Europe after listening to Henry all preseason going on about the greatest league in the world.