100 Bets to Broke Flat Season

yosser hughes

aidankkk wrote: »

4:40 York

Icon Dream was a selection of mine last time out at a huge price and ran a great race in a similar race to this. The form of that race has worked out really well, and he is weighted to be competitive here. He has a big turnaround with Trendsetter for only a couple of lengths and at 14/1 he looks value. I can see a load of negatives with a lot of the runner’s in this, and I’m hopeful he has found a decent opportunity.

1 Point win 14/1 365/VC/Coral

Came in 8th

longshotvalue

Will someone for the love of god go NRNB on the Wokingham..

longshotvalue

4:15 Doncaster

York Glory is an old favourite of mine and despite the fact that he may be in line for a few more reductions in mark before a win, I just can't let him go off at 33/1 today without a small bet . He looked decent enough of his reappearance and was surly in need of that run .

1 point win 33/1 generally .

madmoose

aidankkk wrote: »

Will someone for the love of god go NRNB on the Wokingham..

Bet365 are and have been for a week

Neon_Lights

what do you think of Maid of The Glens in the Munster Oaks at 16.05 today, W.M. Lordan who won on uno voce this week is on her and shes coming in at 18/1 with only 4 horses in the race?

STB.

How have I missed this thread!

Your like your man in back to the future, or something.

Tom Segal must be looking over his shoulder, Aidan.

yosser hughes

aidankkk wrote: »

4:15 Doncaster

York Glory is an old favourite of mine and despite the fact that he may be in line for a few more reductions in mark before a win, I just can't let him go off at 33/1 today without a small bet . He looked decent enough of his reappearance and was surly in need of that run .

1 point win 33/1 generally .

York Glory came in last

themandan6611

yosser hughes wrote: »

York Glory came in last

so he ran to exactly how he was priced, amazing that.

all results can be found on-line, not sure why you are popping in here 4-5 hrs after the event

yosser hughes

themandan6611 wrote: »

so he ran to exactly how he was priced, amazing that.

all results can be found on-line, not sure why you are popping in here 4-5 hrs after the event

You're not sure? Do I have to explain myself to you?

longshotvalue

yosser hughes wrote: »

York Glory came in last

:-). There will be a lot of lasts on this tread , probably more than winners ..

Gregk961

yosser hughes wrote: »

You're not sure? Do I have to explain myself to you?

The point being somebody spends a lot of time and effort picking horses and writing a summary and you stroll in to lazily post the result hours later. Im sure anybody who followed Aiden knows the result. Don't bother next time would be the safest option.

yosser hughes

Gregk961 wrote: »

The point being somebody spends a lot of time and effort picking horses and writing a summary and you stroll in to lazily post the result hours later. Im sure anybody who followed Aiden knows the result. Don't bother next time would be the safest option.

Okay Greg.

minibear

aidankkk wrote: »

Leopardstown 8:00

Uno Voice looks overpriced here after a decent run last time out in a similar race and of the bottom weight here. He is 40 on Betfair and that too big. He has a bit of form that gives him a better than 40/1 chance in this race.

½ Point win 40 betfair 1 Point place 8 betfair

aidankkk wrote: »

York 2:35

Highland Colori looks the value here at a big looking 25/1. He is being underestimated probably because of a poor enough run around here last time out but he was slow away and had to do too much to get involved early, then was wide into the straight. It would have taken a miracle to get close under those circumstances and that run can be ignored. It’s better to have a look at his second last run, when a good 3rd in a very decent Goodwood race. That race signalled a return to form and if he is back at all any improvement will have him right in the firing line here.

1 Point win 25/1 Coral/Betfair

aidankkk wrote: »

York 3:10

Top Notch Tonto has been running well in races much too good for him but this step down in class looks to be what’s required for him to get involved at a big price. He has plenty of good results on decent ground and on a line through some of these a lot higher up in the betting he is great value at 14/1. He is still only a 5yo and his standard level of form might just be enough here.

1 Point win 14/1 Various

Haven't had time to reply, just to act on your tips. A nice healthy balance going into this week. Thank you Aidan, keep it up!

Bozo Skeleton

I haven't been backing horses the last couple of months, but I've been following your threads Aidan, unbelievable picking
Very belated thanks for a profitable Cheltenham.

longshotvalue

Wokingham

I've been waiting for nrnb on this race since I saw Hawkeyethenoo gear himself up for this on Saturday. He was, as I kind of suspected on a spin to get him right for his next race . He was excellent in the Victoria Cup when not getting any kind of decent run. He is well in on his old form and just ticks too many boxes to not be delighted with 33/1 . Only 4 places is not ideal but if we wait until the day he won't be 33/1 .

2 points e/w bet365 nrnb ..

longshotvalue

aidankkk wrote: »

Wokingham

I've been waiting for nrnb on this race since I saw Hawkeyethenoo gear himself up for this on Saturday. He was, as I kind of suspected on a spin to get him right for his next race . He was excellent in the Victoria Cup when not getting any kind of decent run. He is well in on his old form and just ticks too many boxes to not be delighted with 33/1 . Only 4 places is not ideal but if we wait until the day he won't be 33/1 .

2 points e/w bet365 nrnb ..

Anyone backing this make sure it's non runner no bet as per the above ..

Neon_Lights

Does anybody know if each way betting is possible antepost on betfair exchange?

Guffy

Neon_Lights wrote: »

Does anybody know if each way betting is possible antepost on betfair exchange?

Didn't think ew was possible on the exchange?

Neon_Lights

gufc21 wrote: »

Didn't think ew was possible on the exchange?

You can for certain races alright, not every one, the markets are usually Win or place, got on the above on betfair sportsbook anyway at 33's. Thanks Aidan

Denman2008

gufc21 wrote: »

Didn't think ew was possible on the exchange?

I think you can bet each way on desktop but not sure if there is any advantage of this compared to just betting in both the win and place markets. Don't think it's possible antepost

Deco99

When is the Wokingham on? I dont have any online accounts so will be using the bricks and mortar when they go NRNB if the value still exists

longshotvalue

Deco99 wrote: »

When is the Wokingham on? I dont have any online accounts so will be using the bricks and mortar when they go NRNB if the value still exists

Saturday

Neon_Lights

Denman2008 wrote: »

I think you can bet each way on desktop but not sure if there is any advantage of this compared to just betting in both the win and place markets. Don't think it's possible antepost

Well overall price can be different as they are to the best of my knowledge independent markets. This can work both in your favour and against depending on the prices at least your usually guaranteed 1/4 odds with EW.

Would be interesting to see if there's much more of a difference in value. For win + place vs Each way

longshotvalue

Ascot 5:00

I’m going for 2 national hunt horses here with some decent flat form at big prices in this race. Handazan has been improving again over hurdles lately to a very decent 2nd behind a handicap snip last time out. He has a couple of flat runs in 2013 that are fairly standout in the context of this race. He was good 3rd in a listed contest and Nottingham and put up a decent show in a Group 3 around here soon after. He has been a solid 130-135 hurdler and if his recent return to form in that sphere is replicated here he could well outrun his huge price. Royal Irish Hussar is another who has been coming back to form lately and although he was poor here last year, that was at the end of a very long season with no break. He has been lightly raced since and this selection is a question of a big price combined with the idea that he surly wouldn’t be back here if he couldn’t atone for last year’s run.

1 Point EW Handazan 40/1 Various
1 Point EW Royal Irish Huzzar 33/1 Various

Ascot 3:40

Stepper Point is an easy selection here. I put him up last year at 100/1 and he finished 2nd, but he also backed that up again at York. He was only beaten by Sole Power in a good ground 5 Furlong Group 1s last year and that’s good enough for me at 33/1. He hasn’t been great this year but it was mostly the same last year up to this point. Bet365 are the standout at 33/1 with 4 places.

1 Point EW 33/1 Bet365 4 Places

longshotvalue

Ascot 5:00

As much as I love these big field handicaps around here the more I look at this race the less chance I give anything to win it. That said I like the chances of American Hope getting back to form in this. He ran a silly race last time out here so will need to get back to his 2 good runs over c&d here last year. The form of that second to Mange All has really worked out well and if he is none the worse for that Victoria Cup Disaster he may well get back on track here. The 6 places with paddy power at 25/1 looks a standout bet

The other one I like here at a big price is Sirius Prospect. He is capable of this mark and has shown up well in his last 2 races against group class opposition. He has a decent record around here and I like his chances of getting involved at a huge price

1 pt EW American HopePaddy Power 25/1 6 places
1 pt EW Sirius Prospect Paddy Power 50/1 6 places

yosser hughes

Gregk961 wrote: »

The point being somebody spends a lot of time and effort picking horses and writing a summary and you stroll in to lazily post the result hours later. Im sure anybody who followed Aiden knows the result. Don't bother next time would be the safest option.

Okay, I won't mention today's results either. Only mention the winning ones; is that correct Greg?

andyman

Stupid arguing stops now

andyman

Seriously lads, I said the arguing was to stop

Next person to derail the thread gets a ban. I can't be any clearer about this.

longshotvalue

Ascot 2:30

Toscanini was a bit of a disappointment last time out but on 2yo form he is near enough the top to have a serious chance here if returning to form. He also has form around here when 2nd in the Chesham. All his best form in of Good/Firm, and I’m not sure his trainer makes a habit of sending ones without a chance. 16/1 looks a big price for him to regain some reputation here. I also have to have a small bet at silly odds on Father Frost, who again was poor last time out but has shown enough potential to be better than a 50/1 shot
.
1 Point win Toscanini 16/1 Generally
½ Point win Father Frost 50/1 Stan James/Coral

Deco99

Just watching preview race in bookies and victoria cup. Spotted a horse who got hampered a few times before finishing third. Looked a goer, looked up who it was to keep an eye on.....Hawkeyetheno :-)

longshotvalue

aidankkk wrote: »

Ascot 5:00

As much as I love these big field handicaps around here the more I look at this race the less chance I give anything to win it. That said I like the chances of American Hope getting back to form in this. He ran a silly race last time out here so will need to get back to his 2 good runs over c&d here last year. The form of that second to Mange All has really worked out well and if he is none the worse for that Victoria Cup Disaster he may well get back on track here. The 6 places with paddy power at 25/1 looks a standout bet

The other one I like here at a big price is Sirius Prospect. He is capable of this mark and has shown up well in his last 2 races against group class opposition. He has a decent record around here and I like his chances of getting involved at a huge price

1 pt EW American HopePaddy Power 25/1 6 places
1 pt EW Sirius Prospect Paddy Power 50/1 6 places

Phew just about scraped a place. Gets us off the trend of last places

longshotvalue

Ascot Gold Cup 4:20

I’ve totally convinced myself that the favourite is a mad price and has to be avoided on this ground. That said my main selection here is generally thought of as a soft ground horse, but I beg to differ. Tac De Boistron’s best ever performance was on good ground in Longchamp where he really picked up well on good ground and beat a decent field easily at the end of 2013. He has been lightly raced since but if he can cope with this ground he is well overlooked at a very big looking 16/1. Too many of the young horses might have too little between them, and have yet to prove they are up to this standard. I’m also going to go with Simenon at a decent looking 12/1 as he is proven here in this race and I liked the look of his return after a long layoff and immediately thought none of the ones that beat him that day could finished ahead of him here.

2 Points win Tac De Boistron 16/1 Generally

1 Point win Simenon 12/1 Generally

longshotvalue

aidankkk wrote: »

Wokingham

I've been waiting for nrnb on this race since I saw Hawkeyethenoo gear himself up for this on Saturday. He was, as I kind of suspected on a spin to get him right for his next race . He was excellent in the Victoria Cup when not getting any kind of decent run. He is well in on his old form and just ticks too many boxes to not be delighted with 33/1 . Only 4 places is not ideal but if we wait until the day he won't be 33/1 .

2 points e/w bet365 nrnb ..

Ballotted out :(:(.. Just 1 lb short of getting in . Money back unfortunately, well have to wait for another day.

longshotvalue

Ascot 3:05

Cape Clear Island looks easily the value in this race. He ran well in the French Derby. He has been deserted by Ryan Moore, but this group 3 should with his level. 14/1 looks big with all the stables runners going well this week.

1 Point win 14/1 Generally

5:00 Ascot

I’m not a fan at all of these 3yo handicaps, but I had to have a look and I saw one piece of form that stands out in comparison to mark. Jargon won a couple of fairly harmless maidens and then ran poorly in a nursery in Doncaster, but after than ran a great race in France when 2nd to a very decent horse. That race has worked out really well and a reproduction of that of this mark might give him a tiny chance here. We have to forget about his first run this year 2 weeks ago, when he ran out of steam. Hopefully he can come on for that run and is hard to resist at 100/1. I’m also going with a small bet on Rotherwick, who had to try to give weight to Jack Hobbs and Stravagante on his first run this year, and ended splitting them which is obviously pretty decent. There are bits of his 2yo form as well that indicate that on his day he can be better than this mark. 25/1 is bigger than I expected him to be.

½ Point EW Jargon 100/1 5 Places Various

1 Point win Rotherwick 25/1

longshotvalue

3 lasts today. an accum on last place finishers would pay out well.

Decent run from Rotherwick to place in the last. Not that i backed him ew..

Bozo Skeleton

Nice bit of place money for Rotherwick, cheers

longshotvalue

Ascot 3:40

It’s not normally my style but Limato looked like the Second Coming up to his very good run on probably too soft ground last time out. He should improve massively on this ground and 6/1 now looks value. His winning form has worked out well, and although he has a very good horse to beat in Hootenanny, I think he may well end up going off at 4/1 or less so id be happy to have a bet.


2 Points win 6/1 Generally

longshotvalue

4:20

This is the funniest market I’ve seen for a sprint in a long time. I’ll start with Gordon Lord Byron, he had a poor enough introduction this year, but his form at the end of last year could easily be enough to win this race even on good ground. He just failed to win the Sprint Cup, and backed that up with a good 2nd in the Foret and a big run in the Hong Kong Sprint. That’s not the form of a horse in decline 25/1 with Ladbrokes is bordering on an insult. Caspar Netscher is another who looks to be underrated here and in my view has been building to a big run on one of these races. He caught the eye last time out at a big price and I’d be very happy with 33/1

1 Point win 25/1 Ladbrokes Gordon Lord Byron
1 Point win 33/1 Generally Caspar Netscher

longshotvalue

5:00 Ascot

Ninjago leaps of the page here at a decent price. He was second in the Stewards Cup of 1 lb higher last year, backed that up a few times since, and caught the eye last time out in the Victoria when not getting a decent run. Hell love the fast ground and is drawn in the middle so should have the choice. 20/1 with 6 places on Paddy Power looks a great price and I’m going to chance a decent EW bet

I’m going for another proven big sprint handicapper in Blaine . He was 3rd in the Ayr Gold Cup last year of 2lbs higher than this mark and caught the eye on his second last run as possibly being on the way back. He was also a good 5th here over further in the challenge cup when he led but couldn’t stay. This trip looks to be his best and he is a bigger price than I expected. If his high draw works out he should be right in the firing line.

2 Points EW 20/1Ninjago Paddy Power 6 Places
1 Point EW 33/1 Blaine Paddy Power 6 places

longshotvalue

3:05 Ascot

Educate has been ramping up to a good performance lately and he looked to bump into a real performer last time out when finishing second to The Corsican. He probably doesn’t win enough for all his good runs but his price this time is more than I expected and considering he was 4th in a similar or better race to this at york last year of 7lbs higher 18/1 looks a bit of a bargain.

1 Point win 18/1 Ladbrokes

longshotvalue

Ascot 3:40

I think the market may have it wrong with the price of Hillstar here. On all known form he should be close to the 2nd best in this race, and although it is his seasonal reappearance 12/1 without the Fav here looks decent value to beat the rest of the field. In my view he should be about 6-7/1 w/o here.

1 Point win 12/1 Ladbrokes/Coral without Telescope.

longshotvalue

4:45 Chepstow

An old favourite of mine who probably owes me a win has really drooped to a nice mark in this poor enough race. Secret Witness ran a silly race last time out when drifting across the track to rule out any chance. I saw a bit of hope in his first run this year to think that he could win off this type of mark if things went his way and there is a decent possibility of that here. I’ll take the 12/1 on offer. In addition he also has a decent claimer on today.

1 Point win 12/1 Generally

7:25 Kilbeggan

This looks a decent Monday race and Moon Dice has been given a chance here by a step up in trip and the addition of a 7lbs claimer on. He ran well up to a point last time out but is probably too slow at this stage for 2 miles on good ground so the extra ½ mile here should help. 25/1 looks enticing and well know our fate before the race as he’ll surly have a few quid on him if he is going to run better here.

1 Point EW 25/1 Generally

longshotvalue

Newmarket 4:20

Smoothtalkingrascal came alive last time out in the Epson Dash when a fast finishing 6th after a slow start. Up to that he had been pretty poor for a long time. He is off his lowest mark ever here and if he repeats that run here with the extra 3 lbs he has been reduced he won’t be far away. I thought the value would be gone after that run but 16/1 in this lesser race is great value. He is up against a possible Group horse in Double up but I’d be wary of any horse at near evens in these handicaps. There isn’t any w/o fav option at the time of writing.

1 Point Win 16/1 Generally.

ShaneU

9/1 w/o Double up on Ladbrokes

bladespin

ShaneU wrote: »

9/1 w/o Double up on Ladbrokes

6/1 w/o Powers stingy

brassringclub

bladespin wrote: »

6/1 w/o Powers stingy

... so back it with Ladbrokes.

Deco99

brassringclub wrote: »

... so back it with Ladbrokes.

9s gone from there now too

mailburner

this is my biggest cliff horse but as I missed the value ill steer clear

will surely win one this season, hope its today for all who backed

longshotvalue

Same Race

This race has broken up considerably and I think paddy powers w/o fav market looks wrong. Kingsgate Choice which I was looking at this morning but decided against is 22/1 in the standard market and 20/1 in the w/o which looks value given the favourite here is 4/6. The way the market has broken up it looks decent value for this horse to come back to form. He was poor last time in a decent race but broke slowly. He was decent enough on his reappearance and of this mark could well get involved.

1 Point 20/1 w/o FAV Paddy Power

longshotvalue

Feck Big Brother is watching, it literally took 5-6 mins and the whole w/o market has changed for that race..

Still hope a few got on at a decent price