Carlow/Kilkenny By-election

road_high

How do you think this will go? FF, FG, SF, Lab, Independents and even Renua mentioned as possibly running.
Thought a while back it would be FF's but at 17% nationally and running a candidate from their dismal past I think is a huge mistake. Interestingly, Patrick McKee FF is rumoured to run for Renua;
http://www.kilkennypeople.ie/news/kilkenny-news/mckee-for-renua-by-election-bid-1-6662557

Jamie2k9

road_high wrote: »

How do you think this will go? FF, FG, SF, Lab, Independents and even Renua mentioned as possibly running.
Thought a while back it would be FF's but at 17% nationally and running a candidate from their dismal past I think is a huge mistake. Interestingly, Patrick McKee FF is rumoured to run for Renua;
http://www.kilkennypeople.ie/news/kilkenny-news/mckee-for-renua-by-election-bid-1-6662557

Strangely I was about to post about this even though I don't vote in the area but wanted to see if people think FG will keep the seat. Will be a real blow if SF if they don't win (hopefully). Will be a big boost if FG or LAB win it.

road_high

Jamie2k9 wrote: »

Strangely I was about to post about this even though I don't vote in the area but wanted to see if people think FG will keep the seat. Will be a real blow if SF if they don't win (hopefully). Will be a big boost if FG or LAB win it.

I think FG have a good chance now as they chosen a good candidate with a decent, presentable image. Let's be honest, SF candidate is very poor. Not matter how much money they throw at her, still seems like a lame duck to me anyhow.

road_high

There isn't a huge hard left/workshy element in Carlow/Kilkenny either with a chip on their shoulders about everything. Tend to vote on fairly conservative party grounds, I don't see this election being much different. Kilkenny city is doing well and Carlow is improving, can't see a huge backlash here to be honest.

Captain Havoc

KK still has a big FF following.

road_high

Captain Havoc wrote: »

KK still has a big FF following.

Last local election certainly showed that alright. Not certain it's an FF thing per se, more the John McGuinness populism factor.
McKee defection would a blow as he would have been supposedly the modern FF face and future.

Jamie2k9

road_high wrote: »

There isn't a huge hard left/workshy element in Carlow/Kilkenny either with a chip on their shoulders about everything. Tend to vote on fairly conservative party grounds, I don't see this election being much different. Kilkenny city is doing well and Carlow is improving, can't see a huge backlash here to be honest.

Think that's important. Seems to be a more Dublin thing however they do do Dubs swing the election results!

Last local election certainly showed that alright. Not certain it's an FF thing per se, more the John McGuinness populism factor.
McKee defection would a blow as he would have been supposedly the modern FF face and future.

Not sure you can read to much into it as it was really a protest vote. Perhaps Killenny people are wise enough to leave FF run locally and FG run what's in national interest!

catbear

road_high wrote: »

Last local election certainly showed that alright. Not certain it's an FF thing per se, more the John McGuinness populism factor.
McKee defection would a blow as he would have been supposedly the modern FF face and future.

I wonder what McGuinness will do if FF get wiped nationally in the next GE.

road_high

catbear wrote: »

I wonder what McGuinness will do if FF get wiped nationally in the next GE.

We live in hope...he'll have a future politically regardless i think he barely displays the FF logo anyhow

With Michael Martin losing support could John McGuinness be a potential future leader for FF? He has come across well on the PAC and got a lot of national publicity as a result.

Jamie2k9

inthehat wrote: »

With Michael Martin losing support could John McGuinness be a potential future leader for FF? He has come across well on the PAC and got a lot of national publicity as a result.

Martin has to go as leader and FF won't increase support while him and a few others are leading the party. Not sure McGuinness would be a wordy replacement either.

Martin will be gone next April if they perform similar to 2011.

road_high

inthehat wrote: »

With Michael Martin losing support could John McGuinness be a potential future leader for FF? He has come across well on the PAC and got a lot of national publicity as a result.

....Or high jacked it for his own political gain depending on your POV I suppose. Not sure if he would go for leader, seems a bit of a poison chalice and they don't appear to have any real direction or going anywhere. If they were a bit more honest for a change and say yes, "we did royally fcuk the country but we are different now and here's our policies.." I see absolutely none of that.

Running old candidates like Bobby Alyward does nothing to change this in my eyes, just the same old junk re-heated. No wonder the likes of McKee is running a mile. Only one I consider any way appealing is Averil Power in Dublin as she is young, modern and liberal. At total odds with where her party is stuck to be honest.

catbear

Fianna Fail really are anathema to generation emigration who are starting to return, they wont have forgotten as easily the authors of their exile.

Mehole Martin has to tried to resurrect the old FF/FG rivalry but as two mainly populist centralist parties they can't both exist in the same narrowing centre ground.

FF will lose votes to SF as a generation without memory of the troubles seeks an idealist alternative to the gangrenous parish pump duopoly of the past.

Now I'm off to the pub to sort out the worlds problems over a pint of stout.

road_high

catbear wrote: »

Fianna Fail really are anathema to generation emigration who are starting to return, they wont have forgotten as easily the authors of their exile.

Mehole Martin has to tried to resurrect the old FF/FG rivalry but as two mainly populist centralist parties they can't both exist in the same narrowing centre ground.

FF will lose votes to SF as a generation without memory of the troubles seeks an idealist alternative to the gangrenous parish pump duopoly of the past.

Now I'm off to the pub to sort out the worlds problems over a pint of stout.

FG have effectively replaced FF in the middle ground. Their once loyal working class have defected to SF in numbers. What's left is the diehards and elderly voters. Micheal Martin would be better off coming up with a few policies rather than attacking those that had to clean up his parties whopping mess.

brettmirl

Patrick McKee has defected from Fianna Fail to Renua: http://www.newstalk.com/Patrick-McKee-Renua-Ireland-Fianna-Fail-defection-by-election-Carlow-Kilkenny

catbear

Doesn't say much for the future of FF when a most promising protege abandons ship for a novelty party with a name that sounds like a revitalising skin care product.

road_high

catbear wrote: »

Doesn't say much for the future of FF when a most promising protege abandons ship for a novelty party with a name that sounds like a revitalising skin care product.

Ff are a bunch of dinosaurs. Still in denial and wishing it would go back to the "good aul days". They have the arrogance to run a has been candidate from that era over a younger educated guy. I wish McKee well.

road_high

And I'd say John mcguinness was more than happy to see McKee gone as he could have upset his dynasty plans.

Schindlers Pissed

That's a good point......and one I hadn't thought of.

Owryan

Sadly there appears to be no interest in the by election in Carlow. Is there even a Carlow based candidate running?

Sinn Fein seem bullish about their chances from talking to a few of their supporters. Not sure how realistic it is though.

Toblerone1978

road_high wrote: »

And I'd say John mcguinness was more than happy to see McKee gone as he could have upset his dynasty plans.

Yeah, I'd say you're on to something here. The Phoenix magazine reported recently that John McGuinness formed an unlikely alliance with the Alywards with a view to holding off McKee as FF nomination for the by-election.

The idea, according to Phoenix, is that when John McGuinness goes to Europe, Andrew will take over - but if McKee had to be the successful FF nomination this time round, McKee profile would be much higher for when Andrew McGuinness finally goes for a general election and potentially upsetting the 'grand plan'.

road_high

Owryan wrote: »

Sadly there appears to be no interest in the by election in Carlow. Is there even a Carlow based candidate running?

Sinn Fein seem bullish about their chances from talking to a few of their supporters. Not sure how realistic it is though.

I think the Labour Party candidate is from Carlow? Name escapes me, sadly for them not a prayer...SF candidate is extremely poor. Even by the low standards set by the current TD's. The wind has been knocked out of their sails recently and if the economy continues improving they'll be seen as even more high risk than ever.

Owryan

road_high wrote: »

I think the Labour Party candidate is from Carlow? Name escapes me, sadly for them not a prayer...SF candidate is extremely poor. Even by the low standards set by the current TD's. The wind has been knocked out of their sails recently and if the economy continues improving they'll be seen as even more high risk than ever.

Apparently cllr William Quinn from Carlow is standing for Labour. Have to say i ve never heard of him.

Surprised FF have put Bobby Alyward back up, surely they have some young guns (other than a mcguinness) they can go with. I thought they might ve let Jennifer Murnane-O'Connor have a go. She has a good following in Carlow.

jimmyw

Aylwards are the same oul,same oul guard.Too many TDs in the Dail just expecting to be voted back at all opportunities.They need to step down at a sooner time.Need fresh blood.

road_high

Owryan wrote: »

Apparently cllr William Quinn from Carlow is standing for Labour. Have to say i ve never heard of him.

Surprised FF have put Bobby Alyward back up, surely they have some young guns (other than a mcguinness) they can go with. I thought they might ve let Jennifer Murnane-O'Connor have a go. She has a good following in Carlow.

She would have been a good choice far better than the near iliterate other...dire choice.
FF "strategy" is pray that the current crowd Fcuk up and hope to hoodwink the public into thinking the good times will return with "us".

catbear

road_high wrote: »

FF "strategy" is pray that the current crowd Fcuk up and hope to hoodwink the public into thinking the good times will return with "us".

road_high

Had one of their deluded supporters at the weekend explain to me how they will be in next govt replacing the current one....on 17%...back in to squander the progress the country has made. How long before they'd be on the blower to the iMF again I wonder?

Jamie2k9

FF are apparently favorite to take the seat to!

road_high

Jamie2k9 wrote: »

FF are apparently favorite to take the seat to!

Pressures on them. Micheal Martin finished as leader if they dont win it, something that's looking increasingly shaky.
Hard to decide which is worse really, FF In opposition or government

catbear

road_high wrote: »

Pressures on them. Micheal Martin finished as leader if they dont win it, something that's looking increasingly shaky.
Hard to decide which is worse really, FF In opposition or government

FF in government is definitely the worst option. They are and have always been the populist giveaway party but this time the electorate know they've lost a generation that weren't as expendable as in the past. Parents up and down the country with children abroad won't be as easily taken in.

RobertKK

I'm not voting FF in the by election, but the current government basically implemented FF's bailout program with a few tweaks and help from Greek concessions.
I believe it has worked and the current government cannot take all the credit for the turn around in the economy.

Bobby Aylward is so unappealing as is their party leader. They need to disappear.

Voting McKee/Renua.

I don't believe SF will get Ms Funchion elected. Carlow/Kilkenny is not a left wing constituency.