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Leinster Team Talk/Gossip/Rumours Thread VI: End of the MOC [Revenge of the STH]

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    #932
    SaveOurLyric
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,138 ✭✭✭SaveOurLyric


    Interested Observer wrote: »
    There's a bit of a strange circular argument or something going on here. Put the league above Europe so we might get a nicer draw in Europe next season. Despite putting the league ahead of it now.


    Yes there is indeed. The league is the minor competition. If we beat Toulon, I wouldnt risk a hair on the head of a first choice player and would send a distinctly seconds team to Ulster. And that assuming we win tomorrow. If we lose, I'd probably just send a development/academy team and accept beng beaten by 40 pts. If they lose in Toulon of course, I would flog the first choicers for all they are worth on the however long shot of making the top 4.
    CC is the top priority at the expense of all else.


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    #933
    molloyjh
    Registered Users Posts: 24,762 ✭✭✭✭molloyjh


    CatFromHue wrote: »
    Leinster are still in with a good chance of a play off spot.

    We're 6 points behind Ulster and play them the week after Toulon. Their last two games are Munster and Glasgow whereas ours are Edinburgh and Treviso.

    They are 11 points clear now with that TBP win. And they look decent enough. They'll have a rest week and we'll have a 5 day turnaround prior to the game in Ravenhill. A win tomorrow would bring us back to within 7 points and a win in Ravenhill would bring us to within 4 (we won't get a TBP tomorrow and won't prevent a LBP if we win against Ulster). Even if Munster beat them the week after we will still be behind them if we get the TBP win against Treviso on games won and it will all come down to the last week.

    They have a much tougher run in, but we lose tomorrow and it is very much all over. As it stands we still need Ulster to lose their last 2 even if we win all of our remaining games. I think they'll improve over the next couple of weeks so I just don't see it happening at all. I think we're gone unless Ospreys or Munster screw up somewhere.


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    #934
    vienne86
    Registered Users Posts: 17,075 ✭✭✭✭vienne86


    molloyjh wrote: »
    To think that some would have us play our first string team 3 times in 13 days, all of which are away from home and 2 of which against serious opposition, is crazy. I'm not backwards about coming forwards when criticising MOC but this is just ridiculous. Some perspective would be nice here....

    You're right - I hadn't copped this when the team for tomorrow was announced. Unfortunate fixture list, but tomorrow's game is clearly the one we had to sacrifice.


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    #935
    CatFromHue
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 18,157 Mod ✭✭✭✭CatFromHue


    molloyjh wrote: »
    They are 11 points clear now with that TBP win. And they look decent enough. They'll have a rest week and we'll have a 5 day turnaround prior to the game in Ravenhill. A win tomorrow would bring us back to within 7 points and a win in Ravenhill would bring us to within 4 (we won't get a TBP tomorrow and won't prevent a LBP if we win against Ulster). Even if Munster beat them the week after we will still be behind them if we get the TBP win against Treviso on games won and it will all come down to the last week.

    They have a much tougher run in, but we lose tomorrow and it is very much all over. As it stands we still need Ulster to lose their last 2 even if we win all of our remaining games. I think they'll improve over the next couple of weeks so I just don't see it happening at all. I think we're gone unless Ospreys or Munster screw up somewhere.

    On the last day Ulster go to Glasgow and we go to Edinburgh. So win tomorrow and it's still all to play for.

    I wouldn't rule us getting the tbp tomorrow either, from what I've heard of the home loss to them we had plenty of try scoring chances but didn't take them. We've also gotten 7 tbp's in the comp so far too.


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    #936
    molloyjh
    Registered Users Posts: 24,762 ✭✭✭✭molloyjh


    Interested Observer wrote: »
    There's a bit of a strange circular argument or something going on here. Put the league above Europe so we might get a nicer draw in Europe next season. Despite putting the league ahead of it now.

    I said one of our priorities, not our only one.
    Interested Observer wrote: »
    Leinster have little or no chance at the playoffs, and when you lose at home to the Dragons and draw with Treviso you don't really deserve it either.

    So Leinster have little or no chance of making the play-offs in the league so they should instead focus on the game they have away from home to the champions of France and Europe with a squad filled with world class players instead? That makes no sense.
    SaveOurLyric wrote: »
    Yes there is indeed. The league is the minor competition. If we beat Toulon, I wouldnt risk a hair on the head of a first choice player and would send a distinctly seconds team to Ulster. And that assuming we win tomorrow. If we lose, I'd probably just send a development/academy team and accept beng beaten by 40 pts. If they lose in Toulon of course, I would flog the first choicers for all they are worth on the however long shot of making the top 4.
    CC is the top priority at the expense of all else.

    The Pro12 is our bread and butter and people are going to have to start realising that it is the silverware we have the best chance of winning year in, year out. The days of Irish provinces dominating in Europe are over. We will not be winning Champions Cups against the money in France, and to a lesser extent England.

    We need to get real here people. There's 2 competitions that we need to remain competitive in and we cannot and should not abandon one or the other. If we don't rest players this weekend we'll have guys playing 3 games in 13 days. All of those games will be away from home and the latter 2 will be against very serious opposition. That's too much. End of. There's no point winning tomorrow, risking injuries and then sending out a tired squad against Ulster.


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    #937
    stephen_n
    Registered Users Posts: 12,920 ✭✭✭✭stephen_n


    CatFromHue wrote: »
    On the last day Ulster go to Glasgow and we go to Edinburgh. So win tomorrow and it's still all to play for.

    I wouldn't rule us getting the tbp tomorrow either, from what I've heard of the home loss to them we had plenty of try scoring chances but didn't take them. We've also gotten 7 tbp's in the comp so far too.

    The chances of us getting a TBP are slim to none, if we had been on the pitch 320 minutes last week, we still wouldn't havd scored a try with a full strength team. Away from home with a scratch team, it's never going to happen!


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    #938
    durkadurka
    Registered Users Posts: 6,207 ✭✭✭durkadurka


    irishbucsfan wrote: »
    But surely Boss is a better player than him, and would we prefer he plays or Luke McGrath during the World Cup? I don't see the need for him unless Boss is at the World Cup

    That's quite likely based on current pecking order isn't it?


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    #939
    CatFromHue
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 18,157 Mod ✭✭✭✭CatFromHue


    stephen_n wrote: »
    The chances of us getting a TBP are slim to none, if we had been on the pitch 320 minutes last week, we still wouldn't havd scored a try with a full strength team. Away from home with a scratch team, it's never going to happen!

    We're not playing Bath tomorrow though and we've gotten 7 tbp in the Pro12 this season too, no team has gotten more tbp than us.


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    #940
    matthew8
    Registered Users Posts: 9,599 ✭✭✭matthew8


    stephen_n wrote: »
    The chances of us getting a TBP are slim to none, if we had been on the pitch 320 minutes last week, we still wouldn't havd scored a try with a full strength team. Away from home with a scratch team, it's never going to happen!

    It's the Dragons though, bonus point is never out of the question. Not sure at all of the win but BP not impossible either.


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    #941
    molloyjh
    Registered Users Posts: 24,762 ✭✭✭✭molloyjh


    CatFromHue wrote: »
    On the last day Ulster go to Glasgow and we go to Edinburgh. So win tomorrow and it's still all to play for.

    I wouldn't rule us getting the tbp tomorrow either, from what I've heard of the home loss to them we had plenty of try scoring chances but didn't take them. We've also gotten 7 tbp's in the comp so far too.

    Oh yeah it technically is still all to play for. But even if we win all of our remaining games we still need Ulster to lose to us and Munster at home as well as Glasgow away. I just don't see Ulster (who are close to full strength now) losing all 3 of those games.

    If we win all our games with a TBP against Treviso that puts us on 69 points. If Ulster lose all of theirs with LBPs in all of them that puts them on 66 points. If they win just one of those games they are on 69 points and will have won 13 games to our 13 but they have a 54 lead on us in PD (which is the next deciding factor).

    Dragons have only given up 2 TBP wins at home this season. Once to a near full strength Glasgow in September and once to Munster in November. While it is possible to do it is highly unlikely given our squad, our form and their ability to drag us down into a dogfight. A TBP tomorrow would be great, but given that we're not convinced that we'll even win it I don't think it's worth thinking about tbh.

    That said Cardiff and/or Connacht could do us a favour against Ospreys....


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    #942
    thomond2006
    Registered Users Posts: 45,433 ✭✭✭✭thomond2006


    molloyjh wrote: »
    We will not be winning Champions Cups against the money in France, and to a lesser extent England.

    Rory McIlroy will sort Ulster out anyway. A blank cheque here, a bank cheque there...

    If Munster win later than Leinster have to get a BP win tomorrow IMO.


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    #943
    molloyjh
    Registered Users Posts: 24,762 ✭✭✭✭molloyjh


    matthew8 wrote: »
    It's the Dragons though, bonus point is never out of the question. Not sure at all of the win but BP not impossible either.

    TBPs are never out of the question? Care to tell me the last time we got a TBP in Rodney Parade? I really don't like this attitude of "ah sure it's only the Dragons". They drag us down into horrible slugfests and we rarely beat them well. Our best win in the last 10 years was our only BP win there in that time. March 2013 when we won 19-26. It is a very rare thing for us to either get the TBP or a good win in that stadium and against that side. We're going there tomorrow with a weakened side who have been in very poor form of late.

    Technically TBP wins are never out of the equation, but in terms of our conversation on tomorrows game I really think they should be.


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    #944
    thomond2006
    Registered Users Posts: 45,433 ✭✭✭✭thomond2006


    molloyjh wrote: »
    TBPs are never out of the question? Care to tell me the last time we got a TBP in Rodney Parade? I really don't like this attitude of "ah sure it's only the Dragons". They drag us down into horrible slugfests and we rarely beat them well. Our best win in the last 10 years was our only BP win there in that time. March 2013 when we won 19-26. It is a very rare thing for us to either get the TBP or a good win in that stadium and against that side. We're going there tomorrow with a weakened side who have been in very poor form of late.

    Technically TBP wins are never out of the equation, but in terms of our conversation on tomorrows game I really think they should be.

    Fanning is starting. TBP guaranteed, Sir.


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    #945
    stephen_n
    Registered Users Posts: 12,920 ✭✭✭✭stephen_n


    CatFromHue wrote: »
    We're not playing Bath tomorrow though and we've gotten 7 tbp in the Pro12 this season too, no team has gotten more tbp than us.

    2 of which were awayTreviso and Cardiff and we were playing a lot better in January than we are now. It's only Dragons I hear you say, same Dragons team that beat us at home.


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    #946
    molloyjh
    Registered Users Posts: 24,762 ✭✭✭✭molloyjh


    thomond2006 wrote: »
    Fanning is starting. TBP guaranteed, Sir.

    Care to take a guess at the last game he played for us? Yep, the Dragons game in the RDS....

    Plus it's only his second start since Christmas (although he did play 75 vs Wasps after Daves injury).


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    #947
    thomond2006
    Registered Users Posts: 45,433 ✭✭✭✭thomond2006


    molloyjh wrote: »
    Care to take a guess at the last game he played for us? Yep, the Dragons game in the RDS....

    Plus it's only his second start since Christmas (although he did play 75 vs Wasps after Daves injury).

    You told me that game was called off!


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    #948
    Interested Observer
    Registered Users Posts: 13,106 ✭✭✭✭Interested Observer


    molloyjh wrote: »
    So Leinster have little or no chance of making the play-offs in the league so they should instead focus on the game they have away from home to the champions of France and Europe with a squad filled with world class players instead? That makes no sense.

    What the hell are you talking about? If you have no chance of making the playoffs then yes you obviously focus on the thing you do still have a chance in. How on earth does that make no sense?

    Leinster aren't going to make the Pro12 playoffs because of what's happened in the first 18 weeks of this season, not because of what'll happen from here in. We're in a position now where we could put a 4 try BP on Ulster and they're still more than 5 points clear, it is totally out of Leinster's hands. Leinster have been rubbish this season in the league but that's done, it can't be changed.

    On the other hand, and while I think there is an extremely slim chance of Leinster winning it, there is a one off game next weekend that can put Leinster in a Euro final.


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    #949
    matthew8
    Registered Users Posts: 9,599 ✭✭✭matthew8


    molloyjh wrote: »
    TBPs are never out of the question? Care to tell me the last time we got a TBP in Rodney Parade? I really don't like this attitude of "ah sure it's only the Dragons". They drag us down into horrible slugfests and we rarely beat them well. Our best win in the last 10 years was our only BP win there in that time. March 2013 when we won 19-26. It is a very rare thing for us to either get the TBP or a good win in that stadium and against that side. We're going there tomorrow with a weakened side who have been in very poor form of late.

    Technically TBP wins are never out of the equation, but in terms of our conversation on tomorrows game I really think they should be.

    The poster said we couldn't do it at home with a first 15, how will we do it away with a weakened side. I just pointed out the missing part of the equation was the opposition I think the Dragons are playing great but they're nowhere near the quality of Bath. Technically not out of the question was exactly what I meant. Lots of teams get bonus points in games where they'd bite your hand off for a win. How many Ulster fans were talking BP before today's game? I don't think Glasgow or Munster were exactly targeting a BP when they got one earlier in the season.


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    #950
    Heroditas
    Registered Users Posts: 9,501 ✭✭✭Heroditas


    From looking at the table, we could very well be heading to Edinburgh on the last day in a winners takes-all battle for 6th spot and auto qualification to the Not-HEC next season or via a play-off!!!

    We could have Glasgow taking the automatic Scottish spot.
    Munster or Ulster taking the automatic Irish spot and the other team taking a spot on final position.
    Ospreys - Welsh automatic spot
    Treviso or Zebre the Italian spot.
    That's 5 spots with us, Llanelli and Edinburgh slogging it out for 6th and 7th.

    If we ended up in some sort of playoff, would that have repercussions for the RWC prep work? When would the playoffs take place and how long would they last? If they take place after the grand final, we'd be looking at players playing into June and getting feck all of a rest before returning for a much earlier than normal preseason to get ready for the RWC.
    Nervy!!!

    EDIT: nervy but probably unlikely. A win against Treviso should be enough to pretty much guarantee a top 6 spot but stranger things have happened...


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    #951
    padser
    Registered Users Posts: 2,375 ✭✭✭padser


    total former wrote: »
    So what do you suggest? Sending the weak team to Ravenhill??

    Given where we are, this might be the smart team to send by MOC. I'm actually not necessarily being critical of the selection.

    But I am questioning the notion that we can rest 5-7 front liners and still feel we are sending a team "good enough to do the job".

    I'd like to think that's still the case for Leinster. But it isn't.


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    #952
    Neil3030
    Registered Users Posts: 17,154 ✭✭✭✭Neil3030


    Heroditas wrote: »
    From looking at the table, we could very well be heading to Edinburgh on the last day in a winners takes-all battle for 6th spot and auto qualification to the Not-HEC next season or via a play-off!!!

    We could have Glasgow taking the automatic Scottish spot.
    Munster or Ulster taking the automatic Irish spot and the other team taking a spot on final position.
    Ospreys - Welsh automatic spot
    Treviso or Zebre the Italian spot.
    That's 5 spots with us, Llanelli and Edinburgh slogging it out for 6th and 7th.

    If we ended up in some sort of playoff, would that have repercussions for the RWC prep work? When would the playoffs take place and how long would they last? If they take place after the grand final, we'd be looking at players playing into June and getting feck all of a rest before returning for a much earlier than normal preseason to get ready for the RWC.
    Nervy!!!

    EDIT: nervy but probably unlikely. A win against Treviso should be enough to pretty much guarantee a top 6 spot but stranger things have happened...

    7 teams get automatic qualification to the European Cup, and in all likelihood, neither Italian team will finish in the top 7. So in effect, 7th spot will go to Treviso or Zebre, leaving 6 spots. So to correct the above:

    We could have Glasgow taking the automatic Scottish spot.
    Munster or Ulster taking the automatic Irish spot and the other team taking a spot on final position.
    Ospreys - Welsh automatic spot
    That's 4 spots with us, (you forgot Connacht!) Llanelli and Edinburgh slogging it out for 5th and 6th.
    Treviso or Zebre the Italian spot (7th).


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    #953
    padser
    Registered Users Posts: 2,375 ✭✭✭padser


    Neil3030 wrote: »
    7 teams get automatic qualification to the European Cup, and in all likelihood, neither Italian team will finish in the top 7. So in effect, 7th spot will go to Treviso or Zebre, leaving 6 spots. So to correct the above:

    We could have Glasgow taking the automatic Scottish spot.
    Munster or Ulster taking the automatic Irish spot and the other team taking a spot on final position.
    Ospreys - Welsh automatic spot
    That's 4 spots with us, (you forgot Connacht!) Llanelli and Edinburgh slogging it out for 5th and 6th.
    Treviso or Zebre the Italian spot (7th).

    Yeah it's really scary actually,

    We send a weakened team away tomorrow and play ulster either picking ourselves up from a hammering by Toulon or on cloud 9 having pulled off a miracle (neither leave us well positioned for the next game!).

    If we lose both of those we are potentially in real trouble,

    Munster do look to be doing us a favour at the moment against Edinburgh at least,


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    #954
    matthew8
    Registered Users Posts: 9,599 ✭✭✭matthew8


    padser wrote: »
    Yeah it's really scary actually,

    We send a weakened team away tomorrow and play ulster either picking ourselves up from a hammering by Toulon or on cloud 9 having pulled off a miracle (neither leave us well positioned for the next game!).

    If we lose both of those we are potentially in real trouble,

    Munster do look to be doing us a favour at the moment against Edinburgh at least,

    We're hardly in real trouble. We're 8 points ahead of Scarlets and Connacht who only has 3 to play and we have Treviso at home.


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    #955
    Heroditas
    Registered Users Posts: 9,501 ✭✭✭Heroditas


    Neil3030 wrote: »
    7 teams get automatic qualification to the European Cup, and in all likelihood, neither Italian team will finish in the top 7. So in effect, 7th spot will go to Treviso or Zebre, leaving 6 spots. So to correct the above:

    We could have Glasgow taking the automatic Scottish spot.
    Munster or Ulster taking the automatic Irish spot and the other team taking a spot on final position.
    Ospreys - Welsh automatic spot
    That's 4 spots with us, (you forgot Connacht!) Llanelli and Edinburgh slogging it out for 5th and 6th.
    Treviso or Zebre the Italian spot (7th).

    Thanks. I thought it was 6 automatic with the 7th going into a playoff


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    #956
    padser
    Registered Users Posts: 2,375 ✭✭✭padser


    matthew8 wrote: »
    We're hardly in real trouble. We're 8 points ahead of Scarlets and Connacht who only has 3 to play and we have Treviso at home.

    True, we aren't in real trouble right now.

    What I said was that IF we lose the next two games we could be in real trouble, and I pointed out why it's possible we could lose the next two games.

    We are strong favourites to qualify for Europe, no doubt about that. I'm just bemoaning the fact that it's gotten to the stage where we need to look at the table with few games to go and say "we will probably be ok to qualify for europe, after all we have Treviso at home left".


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    #957
    matthew8
    Registered Users Posts: 9,599 ✭✭✭matthew8


    padser wrote: »
    True, we aren't in real trouble right now.

    What I said was that IF we lose the next two games we could be in real trouble, and I pointed out why it's possible we could lose the next two games.

    We are strong favourites to qualify for Europe, no doubt about that. I'm just bemoaning the fact that it's gotten to the stage where we need to look at the table with few games to go and say "we will probably be ok to qualify for europe, after all we have Treviso at home left".

    But we still won't be in trouble because we have Treviso.


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    #958
    vienne86
    Registered Users Posts: 17,075 ✭✭✭✭vienne86


    padser wrote: »
    True, we aren't in real trouble right now.

    What I said was that IF we lose the next two games we could be in real trouble, and I pointed out why it's possible we could lose the next two games.

    We are strong favourites to qualify for Europe, no doubt about that. I'm just bemoaning the fact that it's gotten to the stage where we need to look at the table with few games to go and say "we will probably be ok to qualify for europe, after all we have Treviso at home left".

    I wouldn't have thought at the start of the season that we would be looking over our shoulders at Connacht now.


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    #959
    thomond2006
    Registered Users Posts: 45,433 ✭✭✭✭thomond2006


    vienne86 wrote: »
    I wouldn't have thought at the start of the season that we would be looking over our shoulders at Connacht now.

    But you're not?


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    #960
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    thomond2006 wrote: »
    But you're not?

    I think people are thinking three weeks ahead with worst case scenario's in mind.

    We have a not great team going to RP and Ulster are ahead of us in the table so at this point two loses isn't out of the question and would put us under pressure if 6th 7th or 8th gain ground.


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    #961
    SaveOurLyric
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,138 ✭✭✭SaveOurLyric


    Man, that this discussion can even take place is such a nightmare. Incredible, that qualify or not, we have sunk so low that it can be seriously considered a possibility. Where did it all go wrong ? You would think we have a crummy squad of players who arent up to it.
    Maybe there would be some justice in not qualifying - our performances have been pretty consistently rotten for two years (despite escaping with results a fair few times) and we deserve to be in the lower tier with the handicap we insist on inflicting upon ourselves.


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