Rio 2016 Marathon Qualification, whos trying?

Krusty_Clown

Backed off a little for the next 5k, in 17:41.

RayCun

what's the course profile? Fairly even or would you expect a positive or negative split?

menoscemo

Lead men are on 2:09 pace while the lead women are on 2:19 pace. two totally different races it seems.

Krusty_Clown

Flat as a pancake. One 2m climb in the final 250m.
Course profile:
________________________________/--

menoscemo

17:54 3rd 5k, seemed to be slower for all

Krusty_Clown

menoscemo wrote: »

17:54 3rd 5k, seemed to be slower for all

I wonder if it could be wind related? 7m/s from the SW, which lines up with the course route, though the race leader's splits are picking up. Seems like the leading men started pretty slow (2:09 pace).

menoscemo

18:03 4th 5k

menoscemo

Halfway 1;15:09

menoscemo

18:07 from 20-25k, Apparently they have been running into a stiff breeze for the last 10k. next split will tell the story.
No on 2:30:33 pace

Myles Splitz

Pace has dropped again (5.48 between half and 25k split). According to reports on course wind played a factor in the mid sections of the race

KielyUnusual

Why anyone would ever choose to run a qualifying time for the marathon in a place nicknamed the 'Windy City' completely defeats me.

Myles Splitz

KielyUnusual wrote: »

Why anyone would ever choose to run a qualifying time for the marathon in a place nicknamed the 'Windy City' completely defeats me.

Championship race experience could be crucial for Rio with no pacers in Chicago this year (especially on the womens side given some of the suprise championship medalists over the last few years - Tomescu, Straneo, Xue)

menoscemo

18:13 to 30k, still slowing but not badly.

Dubgal72

Any news? My download too slow :mad:

menoscemo

18:33 to 35k, really struggling it seems :mad:
Looks like she'll finish outside her time in the Euros last year (on a tougher course without marathon training).

KielyUnusual

Dubgal72 wrote: »

Any news? My download too slow :mad:

Predicted 2.31.51 with 7k to go.

menoscemo

KielyUnusual wrote: »

Predicted 2.31.51 with 7k to go.

It will be touch and go to get inside Lizzie Lees' time.

Something has clearly gone wrong. Zurich was much tougher in terms of profile, hotter and she did that race off 1 weeks notice and 10k training. Looks like she'll be outside her time from Zurich despite all that.

average_runner

Myles Splitz wrote: »

Championship race experience could be crucial for Rio with no pacers in Chicago this year (especially on the womens side given some of the suprise championship medalists over the last few years - Tomescu, Straneo, Xue)

Doubt she is a contender to be honest. Get her experience at Rio and aim for next Olympics.
Qualifying should be her main objective

menoscemo

18:48, predicted time now 2:32:43

Splits 17:27; 17:41; 17:54; 18:03; 18:07; 18:13; 18:33; 18:48

KielyUnusual

menoscemo wrote: »

18:48, predicted time now 2:32:43

Splits 17:27; 17:41; 17:54; 18:03; 18:07; 18:13; 18:33; 18:48

I can almost feel the pain, reading those splits.

BeepBeep67

Deena Kastor 2:27 wow

Myles Splitz

average_runner wrote: »

Doubt she is a contender to be honest. Get her experience at Rio and aim for next Olympics.
Qualifying should be her main objective

Next Olympics will be just shy of her 36th birthday though. I would imagine she looked at long time rival Sara Moreira's performances when stepping up as a sign of encouragement.

Also worth nothing that she has had a coaching change and the planning for a wedding during this cycle which can obviously have and impact. Getting the qualifier out of the way early on a tough day like today for her . In terms of getting the OQ I think as long as she got around that was not gonna be in doubt irregardless of her course selection.

menoscemo

2:33:15

rom

menoscemo wrote: »

2:33:15

Lee with a better time still. Great time though.

Krusty_Clown

rom wrote: »

Lee with a better time still. Great time though.

I'd imagine Fionnuala would have gone under 2:30, if she'd been in Berlin.

Chivito550

rom wrote: »

Lee with a better time still. Great time though.

Sorry, how is that a great time? I would consider that a very poor time for a double European cross country champion.

Pherekydes

The Indo, first with tomorrow's news today!

Britton, 31, passed halfway in 75:09 in yesterday’s race but was unable to maintain the pace through the latter miles and came home in 2:33:15, comfortably inside the standard of 2:42, but well off her best of 2:31:46, which was run in her marathon debut at the European Championships in Zurich last year.

ultrapercy

Chivito550 wrote: »

Sorry, how is that a great time? I would consider that a very poor time for a double European cross country champion.

Well it's almost 9 mins inside the Olympic qualifying standard. While I understand she will be disappointed and it's not what she hoped for I still think it's fair to say it's a great time. It's probably top 6 or 7 Irish of all time, maybe we can split hairs meet in the middle and call it 'very good'?

Itziger

ultrapercy wrote: »

Well it's almost 9 mins inside the Olympic qualifying standard. While I understand she will be disappointed and it's not what she hoped for I still think it's fair to say it's a great time. It's probably top 6 or 7 Irish of all time, maybe we can split hairs meet in the middle and call it 'very good'?

I'm afraid I side with Chivito here. If we consider that her first was in a championship on a hilly course with what seems like poor prep and this time around in a big city, flat course she goes back in time. Not a great performance tbh and she'd probably agree.

Maybe she had had problems in the lead up, I don't know. Before this I thought she was our clear number one, now it doesn't look so clear.

Chivito550

ultrapercy wrote: »

Well it's almost 9 mins inside the Olympic qualifying standard. While I understand she will be disappointed and it's not what she hoped for I still think it's fair to say it's a great time. It's probably top 6 or 7 Irish of all time, maybe we can split hairs meet in the middle and call it 'very good'?

2:42 is an extremely soft qualifying time. She could have run that off no training. She ran 2:31 in Zurich last year off 10k training. 2:33 is very poor by a runner of her calibre and IMO it does her an injustice to say otherwise. Her time is barely quicker than Maria's time in DCM last year!

ultrapercy

Chivito550 wrote: »

2:42 is an extremely soft qualifying time. She could have run that off no training. She ran 2:31 in Zurich last year off 10k training. 2:33 is very poor by a runner of her calibre and IMO it does her an injustice to say otherwise. Her time is barely quicker than Maria's time in DCM last year!

Winning time was 2.09 versus 2.04 in Berlin. Womens winner ran 2.23 versus sub 2.20 in Berlin. Conditions were not ideal so I don't think you are comparing like with like. That was likely a solid sub 2.30 performance in Berlin. I have no doubt she will run 2.28 to 2.30 in the spring. Saying a qualifying time is soft is a mater of opinion, it may be fairer to say the European xc is soft but today she was 9 minutes inside that time . Britton is a very good performer but she is not Sonia and she is not McKeirnan. To call 2.33 for a woman in those circumstances very poor is frankly ridicullous. Also I highly doubt she ran 2.31 on 10k training, most likely that was spin to keep her debut pressure free.

Chivito550

ultrapercy wrote: »

Winning time was 2.09 versus 2.04 in Berlin. Womens winner ran 2.23 versus sub 2.20 in Berlin. Conditions were not ideal so I don't think you are comparing like with like. That was likely a solid sub 2.30 performance in Berlin. I have no doubt she will run 2.28 to 2.30 in the spring. Saying a qualifying time is soft is a mater of opinion, it may be fairer to say the European xc is soft but today she was 9 minutes inside that time . Britton is a very good performer but she is not Sonia and she is not McKeirnan. To call 2.33 for a woman in those circumstances very poor is frankly ridicullous. Also I highly doubt she ran 2.31 on 10k training, most likely that was spin to keep her debut pressure free.

2:42 being soft is not an opinion. It is fact. Look at the amount of Irish women who can hit that. Then look at the amount hitting the 5000m and 10000m marks. The 1500m. The 400m.

I very much doubt she is happy with that time and judging how she blew up badly she was clearly chasing something much quicker.

Notwork Error

ultrapercy wrote: »

Winning time was 2.09 versus 2.04 in Berlin. Womens winner ran 2.23 versus sub 2.20 in Berlin. Conditions were not ideal so I don't think you are comparing like with like. That was likely a solid sub 2.30 performance in Berlin. I have no doubt she will run 2.28 to 2.30 in the spring. Saying a qualifying time is soft is a mater of opinion, it may be fairer to say the European xc is soft but today she was 9 minutes inside that time . Britton is a very good performer but she is not Sonia and she is not McKeirnan. To call 2.33 for a woman in those circumstances very poor is frankly ridicullous. Also I highly doubt she ran 2.31 on 10k training, most likely that was spin to keep her debut pressure free.

To be fair, those winning times had more to do with Chicago dropping the pavers this year which made it a race. I don't think she will be too happy with her performance today considering she is by far the best female distance runner in the country. It's a very good time in the grand scheme of things but not for an athlete of her class. 2.10 for men is an excellent time too but not for the likes of Kipchoge. Job done anyway so she concentrate on getting it right going forward.

youngrun

Notwork Error wrote: »

To be fair, those winning times had more to do with Chicago dropping the pavers this year which made it a race. I don't think she will be too happy with her performance today considering she is by far the best female distance runner in the country. It's a very good time in the grand scheme of things but not for an athlete of her class. 2.10 for men is an excellent time too but not for the likes of Kipchoge. Job done anyway so she concentrate on getting it right going forward.

Any other ladies likely to go for the time bar Maria and the three who have it now ?

ultrapercy

Chivito550 wrote: »

2:42 being soft is not an opinion. It is fact. Look at the amount of Irish women who can hit that. Then look at the amount hitting the 5000m and 10000m marks. The 1500m. The 400m.

I very much doubt she is happy with that time and judging how she blew up badly she was clearly chasing something much quicker.

Yes but she ran almost 9 minute quicker than 2.42. Doubtless she is not happy, she was aiming for 2.28. It wasn't her day,that's the marathon but it's still a very good time. A better day will come for her but it's still a top 6 or 7 of all time nationaly in a record book that includes 2 of the sports top performers of all time. She didn't blow up badly, 3 mins in a tougher 2nd half is not a melt down by any means.

tang1

Chivito550 wrote: »

2:42 being soft is not an opinion. It is fact. Look at the amount of Irish women who can hit that. Then look at the amount hitting the 5000m and 10000m marks. The 1500m. The 400m.

I very much doubt she is happy with that time and judging how she blew up badly she was clearly chasing something much quicker.

Circumstances dictate how you run a race everybody suffered today in Chicago, i'm sure she ran the best race she could today. To say she ran a weak race or didn't perform is horse manure. No doubt she can run faster as she has already shown, you can only run to the circumstances that are dealt to you on the day.

Chivito550

ultrapercy wrote: »

Yes but she ran almost 9 minute quicker than 2.42. Doubtless she is not happy, she was aiming for 2.28. It wasn't her day,that's the marathon but it's still a very good time. A better day will come for her but it's still a top 6 or 7 of all time nationaly in a record book that includes 2 of the sports top performers of all time. She didn't blow up badly, 3 mins in a tougher 2nd half is not a melt down by any means.

Yeh but being top 6 or 7 is below the level she is at. I'd have her as our third greatest distance runner we've had.

My point about the standard being soft is in reference to the nonsense about her securing the standard for Rio. She could have done that blindfolded it's that soft and given her abilities.

In the end of the day she is a 31:30 10k runner at her best. She should be capable of 2:26 or so, but I fear her best days are behind her now. I hope I'm wrong.

ultrapercy

Chivito550 wrote: »

Yeh but being top 6 or 7 is below the level she is at. I'd have her as our third greatest distance runner we've had.

My point about the standard being soft is in reference to the nonsense about her securing the standard for Rio. She could have done that blindfolded it's that soft and given her abilities.

In the end of the day she is a 31:30 10k runner at her best. She should be capable of 2:26 or so, but I fear her best days are behind her now. I hope I'm wrong.

I can see no evidence to I support such a negative hypothesis. The marathon is a learning curve that does not always bend the same way. Today was a bump in the road and yet she nailed qualification on a difficult day for her, she showed the courage and resolve the event requires now all she needs is the right race.

Krusty_Clown

Chivito550 wrote: »

She should be capable of 2:26 or so, but I fear her best days are behind her now. I hope I'm wrong.

She ran 1:11:33 for the half, a few weeks back (on the back of marathon training, rather than half marathon training), which would suggest that she was in form to run 2:29, or better. Looking at the splits, I'd guess that the heat got to her, or she just had a bad day. Hard to say that her form has improved since Zurich, but I certainly wouldn't think her best days are behind her. I can't help but think that if she'd opted for Berlin (or perhaps Frankfurt in two weeks), she'd have run better.

Chivito550

ultrapercy wrote: »

I can see no evidence to I support such a negative hypothesis. The marathon is a learning curve that does not always bend the same way. Today was a bump in the road and yet she nailed qualification on a difficult day for her, she showed the courage and resolve the event requires now all she needs is the right race.

If our football team have a bad game, they get criticised. I don't see why individual sportspeople should be exempt from this. It was a poor run, for somebody of her abilities and accomplishments. Hopefully she will bounce back and nail a good run in Rio.

dublin runner

Why Chicago? Is there a reason behind the timing/course? I know we have benefit of hindsight but from the get go I found it an odd choice. No point saying it was equivalent to a 2.xx in Berlin. That is totally meaningless.

ultrapercy

Chivito550 wrote: »

If our football team have a bad game, they get criticised. I don't see why individual sportspeople should be exempt from this. It was a poor run, for somebody of her abilities and accomplishments. Hopefully she will bounce back and nail a good run in Rio.

The Irish football team wouldn't get criticised if they qualified, they would get high praise indeed if they qualified with the ease that Britton qualified for Rio and the qualifying standard for the euros is every bit as soft as the women's marathon standard.

menoscemo

Ah come on lads, chivito is right. There's no way Fionnuala can be happy with that and I am sure she won't be.
After month of dedicated marathon training she was almost 2 minutes slower on a faster course in better conditions over when she was not even training for the distance. To those who said she probably was training for the marathon in Zurich; well she kept that quiet!! She wasn't even in the team until a few other pulled out a few weeks before the championships.

Chivito550

menoscemo wrote: »

Ah come on lads, chivito is right. There's no way Fionnuala can be happy with that and I am sure she won't be.
After month of dedicated marathon training she was almost 2 minutes slower on a faster course in better conditions over when she was not even training for the distance. To those who said she probably was training for the marathon in Zurich; well she kept that quiet!! She wasn't even in the team until a few other pulled out a few weeks before the championships.

+1, and no marathoner (of any level) would run a 10000m race just 4-5 days before a target marathon. She ran it for experience. The 10000m was the focus in Zurich.

Krusty_Clown

I don't think anyone is arguing that she'd be happy with that performance or that it's near her best. The splits speak volumes. But she had qualified comfortably. Having run Berlin on a cool day (near perfect conditions but for some rain) and Chicago in hot conditions (very similar to yesterday) I know how easy it is to lose 5+ minutes on the course (aimed for 2:42, ran 2:48). Her strategy of going out for a sub 2:28 in those conditions (if that's what she did) is both admirable and questionable in equal measure. Bur she doesn't seem like a 'play it cautious' kind of runner, and that's what makes her a winner, rather than someone who runs good times. The fact that she still qualified with ease is a convenience. Many others would have dropped out as soon as the splits started to go south. Onwards and upwards for her. Qualification done - lesson learned - real training starts next week.

average_runner

Chivito550 wrote: »

+1, and no marathoner (of any level) would run a 10000m race just 4-5 days before a target marathon. She ran it for experience. The 10000m was the focus in Zurich.

Well to be honest her performance in the 10,000 was terrible in the euros and she looked uninterested.

If anyone gave a 100% in 10,000 a few days before the marathon they be very unlikely run a decent marathon time on a very tough course

RayCun

ZATOPEK!

Chivito550

RayCun wrote: »

ZATOPEK!

Different era. No East Africans filling up the top spots back then. Pointless using somebody who competed over 60 years ago to relate to the modern day sport.

Chivito550

average_runner wrote: »

Well to be honest her performance in the 10,000 was terrible in the euros and she looked uninterested.

If anyone gave a 100% in 10,000 a few days before the marathon they be very unlikely run a decent marathon time on a very tough course

It was all very odd. She didn't seem disappointed afterwards in the mixed zone despite racing very poorly on that night, and just sitting in the pack, not attempting to try win a medal. But it must also be noted she finished 8th in that race, 10th in the marathon. People forget that. I think there would have been much more in her had she focused on the marathon. But maybe the lack of expectations allowed her to run free.

One thing is for sure, she's not in the form of 2012, when she finished 15th in the Olympic 10000m. She's a long way off what will be required for a top 15 in the marathon in Rio. She's got 10 months though, so hopefully it all comes together.

RayCun

Chivito550 wrote: »

Different era. No East Africans filling up the top spots back then. Pointless using somebody who competed over 60 years ago to relate to the modern day sport.

I don't think you heard me right

ZATOPEK!