Aintree Grand National

Slattsy

There's only one winner lads.

okidoki987

Unless there's going to be a dead heat, there's always only 1 winner .

Slattsy

Decent preview for it on my site if anyones interested

Preview - Aintree Grand National - 10/04
written by Peter Cahill & Dan Reidy

Trends Guide:
There are four main trends to look at here. They are Age, Weight, Stamina and Fitness.

The other trends to look at are jumping ability and course form.

Age:
There has not been a single Grand National Winner in the last 68 years who was aged below 8 years old; nor has there been one older than 12 for the last 85 years. Those facts alone tell us that it is essential to look for horses aged between 8-12 and to draw a line through the rest.

Using this trend you can rule out the following Grand National entries from winning in 2015:

Oscar Time - 14
Tranquil Sea - 13
Unioniste - 7
Cause Of Causes - 7

Weight:
The Grand National is by far and away the toughest race a horse will ever have to face, therefore the less weight a horse carries the greater its chance of running well. Since World War 2 only six horses have carried a weight of more than 11st 5lb and two of those were achieved by the legend Red Rum and another being with Neptune Collonges who won carrying 11st 6.

Horses set to carry more than 11-6:
Lord Windermere - 11st 10lbs
Many Clouds - 11st 9lbs
Unioniste - 11st 6lbs

Stamina:
There will be a number of horses, usually younger ones who will come into the Grand National without the benefit of a long run i.e that is a run of more than 3 miles, 1 furlong. These are usually horses of great potential, but rarely will one win over the Aintree four mile course. The last horse to win the Grand National without running over 3 miles, 1 furlong was back in 1970.

Those horses without a chase win over 3 miles and one furlong:
Ballycasey
Rubi Light
Tranquil Sea
The Rainbow Hunter
Super Duty
Owega Star
River Choice

Fitness:
Pineau De Re became the busiest Grand National winners for 25 years last season as he had raced on eight occasions since the start of August whereas all other winners since Little Polveir in 1989 had run between three and six times. A total of 56 days had passed since Neptune Collonges had his previous start when just touched off in the Betfred Grand National Trial at Haydock meaning that he became the first Grand National winner since Aldaniti in 1981 to have been off the course for over 55 days. In the whole scheme of things a day is neither here nor there, the underlying point is that a fairly recent run is important and it also doesn’t necessarily have to be a good one.

Those horses without a run in last 55 days:
Unioniste
Balthazar King
Shutthefrontdoor
Corrin Wood
Saint Are
Chance Du Roy
Court By Surprise
Ely Brown
Gas Line Boy

This leaves:
Rocky Creek
First Lieutenant
Pineau De Re
Spring Heeled
Royal Rebellion
Dolutolo
Mon Parrain
Carlito Brigante
Night in Milan
The Druids Nephew
Godsmejudge
Al Co
Monbeg Dude
Across The Bay
Bob Ford
Wyck Hill
Portrait King
Alvarado
Soll
Royale Knight

Factoring in jumping ability, course form and taking out the no hopers:

This leaves:
Rocky Creek
Pineau De Re
Monbeg Dude
Across The Bay
Alvarado
Soll

Trends Predict:
1st: Alvarado
2nd: Monbeg Dude
3rd: Soll
4th: Pineau De Re


Horse by Horse Form Guide:
1 Lord Windermere:Sprung a huge surprise when landing last year’s Cheltenham Gold Cup but has been rather hit-and-miss since and was pulled up having never looked likely to feature in his follow-up attempt last month. Not out of it if he can recapture his best but difficult to have much faith in after that latest effort.

2 Many Clouds: Has had a great season so far. Won the Hennessy Gold Cup and then won the Argento Chase. His last run was in the Cheltenham Gold Cup where he ran a gallant 6th. The class horse in the field and he has last years winning jockey on board. Only doubt being he had a tough race at Cheltenham and he has a lot of weight to burden.

3 Unioniste: Representing the same owner/trainer combination as 2012 hero Neptune Collonges, and there are certainly similarities that can be drawn between the two. However this youngster might be a shade high in the weights now after his win at Sandown in January.

4 Rocky Creek: Ran a great race in last seasons renewal when coming 4th. Took it up at the 18th fence and was only passed on the elbow. Rated 2 lbs lower this year than last. He won on his recent run which came after the weights were published. So he is 7 lbs well in at the weights and 2 lbs lower than last year. He’s got a touch of class about him too. Came 2nd in a Grade 1 to a horse who went on and came 3rd in the Gold Cup. Of the horses carrying over 11 stone, he’s the one I like but I think there are better horses off lower weight. Place chance at best.

5 First Lieutenant: Formerly high-class hurdler/chaser – the highlight a Grade 1 success over the Mildmay course here in 2013 – but there has been considerable evidence of late that a catalogue of tough battles is beginning to take its toll. Stable has been largely out of sorts too (though there have been more encouraging signs of late) so unless these fences bring him back to life he seems likely to struggle. Has Nina Carberry on board who is bidding to become the first lady rider to win the race.

6 Balthazar King: Was a gallant 5 length 2nd in this race last year. He is a cross country race specialist and these fences also bring him alive. Comes into the race in great form. Been put away for it ever since winning a cross country race at Cheltenham in November. The lack of a recent run is off putting though as fit horses normally win this race. Also 3 lbs higher for this years race. Should get round but could be found wanting late on.

7 Shutthefrontdoor: AP McCoy’s final Grand National ride is set to go off the shortest price favourite for the race for many a year and his profile is certainly an alluring one. Bidding to pull off the Fairyhouse/Aintree double achieved by Bobbyjo and Numbersixvalverde in recent times, he remains open to improvement after just six chase starts and should give the retiring ‘champ’ a great spin if taking to the fences. The Aintree Grand National is a different kind of race though to the Irish equivalent as this is a much tougher test. Is high in the weights too but would be a fairytale ending for McCoy if he were to win.

8 Pineau De Re: Last years winner of the race. Was with Philip Fenton in his early days but with Doctor Newland for some time now. Had his greatest moment when winning this race by 5 lengths last year. Had a light campaign for last years race and has had so again this season. His trainer and jockey actually got banned for not trying with him earlier in the year over hurdles. Had a prep run at the Cheltenham Festival where he didn’t disgrace himself. The way in which he won the race last year was very impressive. No horse has impressed me as much winning this race since the great Hedgehunter. I think if he jumps round he’ll be bang there again. 7 lbs higher this year but I think he has a good chance to follow up. It’s a feat that’s rarely done though.

9 Ballycasey: A Grade 1 winner as a novice last year, this Presenting gelding has lost his way badly of late – albeit he has been campaigned at the top level in each of his last three starts. The sole runner for Ireland’s all-conquering champion trainer Willie Mullins. He is the likely mount of Ruby Walsh but is nevertheless difficult to fancy unless bouncing right back to his best. Not a great jumper either which is not a good thing around these fences.

10 Spring Heeled: Won the Kim Muir Chase at last years Cheltenham festival. Had a light campaign since. He ran a good 4th in the Galway Plate. The winner of that race went on to win two grade 1’s and come 3rd in the Gold Cup. So that form ties in with Rocky Creek. Is nicely weighted and he should stay the trip. The only doubt is that his trainer hasn’t had a winner in over a year and it would be a career best if he were to win. Saying that though he could find the improvement and has the makings of a national winner.

11 Rebel Rebellion: Highly experienced chaser who proved his aptitude for these obstacles when landing the 2013 Grand Sefton under a welter burden. Another who has added to his tally since the publication of the weights and is 7 lbs well in but he has yet to convince with his stamina (0-2 over 3m under rules) but is not without a chance if seeing out the marathon journey.

12 Dolatulo: Won a good race over 3 mile 1 at Wetherby in December and was kept to hurdles ever since to keep his weight down. Has a high rating for what he has done though. There are much better handicapped horses in here. Not so sure he will see out the trip either. Little chance of making the frame.

13 Mon Parrain: French import who has been quite lightly raced in recent times but did win a fair handicap at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day. However he was well beaten next time, and while he has jumped around well at Aintree in the past this looks beyond him. He is a horse that keeps a lot to himself. He’s always had the ability to win a race like this but rarely shows how good he really is which tempers enthusiasm.

14 Carlito Brigante: Was a progressive hurdler/chaser for gigginstown stud and Gordon Elliot at one point. Hasn’t show his best form in about 2 years even though he won 2 starts back. Wouldn’t be certain he would see out the trip either. Not one for me.

15 Night In Milan: Reliable handicapper whose Grimthorpe Chase victory made him a big fancy for last year’s race only to agonisingly miss the cut. His last two placed efforts at Doncaster (most recently when bidding to follow up the aforementioned success) have not been without credit but suggest that he may once again struggle off a career-high mark

16 Rubi Light: Was a high class chaser at one point in his career. Won a grade 1 but went on a downward spiral over fences. Has had a revival of late, winning his first race for 3 year and he then followed that up with a win. Has never won over 3 miles and he does not look like a stayer. Most likely only running because he’s eligible and a day out for his owners. No chance.

17 The Druids Nephew: Talented gelding who finally bagged the big prize he had threatened for so long when seeing off 23 rivals in the 3m1f handicap on the opening day at the Cheltenham Festival. Undoubtedly well-treated on the same mark here – he will be 10 lb higher in future – he is understandably well fancied by many but his tendency to clout the odd fence is a concern.

18 Cause Of Causes: He is a horse that I can never put my finger on to what his best trip is. He looked like he barely stayed 2 mile at the start of his career. Came 2nd in the Galway Hurdle and won a few other nice pots over hurdles. Last season he was upped in trip and came 2nd in the Paddy Power Chase and he came 2nd to Spring Heeled off level weights at the Cheltenham festival. He then ran a disappointing race in the Irish National where it looked like he didn't stay. This season got off to a quiet start but got an entry for the 4 miler at the Cheltenham Festival. I thought he would not stay but he proved me wrong again. He won in great style. The race was run a very slow pace though so I still question his stamina. The big doubt here is his age though. Seven year old’s have a terrible record in this race. Could go well for a lot of the race but is one I’d fancy with another year under his belt.

19 Godsmejudge: Scottish National winner in 2013 and runner up in 2014 but has become worryingly inconsistent since that famous triumph. He was however placed off this mark in both the Ayr showpiece and Sandown’s bet365 Gold Cup last term so despite a woeful warm-up run over hurdles he cannot be completely dismissed.

20 Al Co: Last years surprise winner of the Scottish Grand National. Had a run over these fences in the Becher Chase but never looked like he was happy over the fences. He eventually pulled up. Ran twice over hurdles since. Stamina is proven and is being talked up as been in great form but not one I like in here.

21 Monbeg Dude: A fantastic servant to his connections, this enigmatic character took to the fences better than many had anticipated when seventh last year, rated 4 lbs lower this year. However he didn’t run one of his better races last time and the exaggerated hold-up tactics often favoured are particularly difficult to execute around here. Has grand national winning jockey Liam Treadwell on board, could get closer this year but not a likely winner.

22 Corrin Wood: Came 2nd to Gold Cup Winner Coneygree in a bumper and 3rd to shutthefrontdoor over hurdles. Had a good novice campaign but hasn’t shown much form this season. His trainer is going through a bad spell. He has always looked one paced in his races but is one that will definitely see the trip out. He is a rank outsider not without a chance but I can’t see him winning it.

23 The Rainbow Hunter: An early casualty in last year’s renewal, he has been seen only once in public since when pulling up behind Rocky Creek at Kempton in February. Still on a career high mark, he is probably up against it.

24 Saint Are: Has won at the track in the past and his stamina is assured. Came 9th in this race 2 years back but only 1 lbs lower than that. Should get round and plug on through beaten horses but his chances of winning are quite slim.

25 Across The Bay: Something of a hard luck story when badly hampered by a loose horse when leading with a circuit to go last year, 4 lbs lower this year. He has showed virtually nothing in his first three starts this term. However there was a glimmer of promise in how he traveled prior to being brought down at Cheltenham last month and he could be a lively outsider if that wasn’t a false dawn.

26 Tranquil Sea: Was a talented horse early in his career for Edward O'Grady. Mainly won over 2 mile 4 and his feature win came in the Clonmel Oil Chase. Has not shown form like that in a long time though and he is a 13 year old now. Little to no chance.

27 Oscar Time: Remarkable old-timer whose 14 now. Boasts a wonderful course record, the highlight being a gallant second to Ballabriggs in the 2011 edition and a 4th in 2013. He earned himself a further trip to Merseyside when battling home to win the Becher Chase last December and should give his highly-decorated amateur rider another great ride without quite being good enough.

28 Bob Ford: Has run over these fences once. He did not like it at all and hung left throughout. He is a no hoper in here and will most likely cause disaster for others than anything else.

29 Super Duty: In his pomp as a novice during the 2012/13 campaign, this nine year-old has looked a shadow of his former self since returning from a lengthy injury-enforced layoff for a new yard this term. Big leap of faith required to see him staging a revival now and he is a doubtful stayer.

30 Wyck Hill: One of my main fancies in here. Stamina is proven and has a nice racing weight. Won the Eider Chase in a bog over 4 miles 1 furlong last season. Has been kept to a quiet campaign ever since with this race in mind. Ran a great race first time up in a novice hurdle and then unseated in the Eider early on. Has the makings of a National winner and at 50/1 he will give you a great run for your money.

31 Gas Line Boy: Lightly-raced stayer who beat the subsequent Welsh National winner Emperor’s Choice in great style at Haydock in November. Pulled up himself in the Chepstow festival highlight, he struggled off a similar mark at Haydock last time and may be in the grip of the assessor now.

32 Chance Du Roy: Really loves it over these fences. Came 2nd in the Topham 2 seasons back and last season he won the Becher Chase and came 6th in this race off 3 lbs higher. This season he came 5th in the Becher Chase and 5th last time out behind Soll. Was staying on very well late on in those races and in last years national. Lower weight and a year older makes him a live contender. Big chance off a low weight.

33 Portrait King: The 2012 Eider Chase winner has bounced back from fracturing his pelvis twice to run some fine races this term, scoring at Punchestown in January and shaping well over hurdles at Down Royal on St Patrick’s Day. The suspicion remains that he is not quite the force of old but this out-and-out stayer should still be going after others have cried enough.

34 Owega Star: Has not proven his stamina for this race. Never won over 3 mile. A top notch handicap hurdler and chaser but his win to run strike rate is not very good. Has a nice weight for what he has done but that won’t make him stay.

35 River Choice: Owner enjoys a tilt at the big prizes but this French raider is very hard to assess. He has competed exclusively in his homeland to date, notching a tenth career success at Enghien in November. Not ruled out completely but probably asking too much to win a National at this stage of his career.

36 Court By Surprise: Lightly race and never really showed top class form. Has won his last two races to get into this race, stamina not assured and needs to improve again to have any chance. I can’t see it happening.

37 Alvarado: Not the easiest to predict but highly capable on a going day, he made up a huge amount of ground from the rear to take fourth in last year’s renewal. Has clearly been laid out for a return trip ever since and there was plenty to take from his warm-up effort at Doncaster. 1 lb lower this season. If he’s put into the race at an earlier stage that last years I think he’s one that they all have to fear. Horses who place in the race normally go close the following year. Big chance.

38 Soll: 7th in this race 2 years back off 7 lbs lower. Ran in the Topham last year as he missed the cut for this race. Is an out and out stayer. Has been better than ever this season. Won his last two races in great style. One of which is a good trial for this race. He is due to go up a further 7 lbs in future so he is well in at the weights. With stamina assured and coming into the race in great form I’d rate his chances pretty high off a low weight.

39 Ely Brown: Very inexperienced for a test such as this with just four previous runs over fences (though he did compete in two point-to-points earlier in his career), he ran no sort of race on his sole outing this term at Wetherby in January. Has faced a total of just fifteen rivals in those chase starts so this seems likely to be something of a culture shock for him.

40 Royale Knight: The lowest rated horse in the race. Comes from the stable of last years winner. Did well to get into the race. Has never been a top tier horse. He does stay though and the low weight will help. Has a bit to find with Wyck Hill on form and needs to improve greatly on what he has shown to have a chance. I wouldn’t rule out a place though.

Verdict:
It’s a great renewal of the race, possibly the best in quite sometime. Last years winner Pineau De Re has as good a chance as any winner of the race to follow up. 7 lbs higher and a different jockey will make life a lot tougher than last year though. I think he’ll run a big race but might come up short. Shutthefrontdoor is the horse everyone wants to win as it would be Tony McCoy’s last ever ride if it does. My heart says yes but my head says no. I think’s he’s too high in the weights and there are much better handicapped horses. He did win the Irish National but that was over 6 furlongs less. This is a different test. Soll is coming into the race in as good as form as any. He was 7th in the the race in the past and I think another bold showing is on the cards. Wyck Hill is a proven stayer, if his jumping holds up he should be bang there as they turn for home. I think he’s the best value in the race at 50/1.

Chance Du Roy is totally at home over these fences. The plan with him for sometime has been this race. 6th last year and better off in the weights with most from last year. He’ll get round for sure and he’s bound to run a big race. Could go very close to winning. Spring Heeled was the horse that I fancied for this race all winter. He’s got a nice weight for what he has done. Has the makings of a national horse, he’s big and he stays. Trainer has the top weight in the race to ensure this one races of a nice weight. His trainer hasn’t had a winner in a while but it shouldn’t put you off backing it. Alvarado got going way too late last year. His jockey thought that there was another circuit to go the horses was travelling so well. I think if he get’s put into the race at an earlier stage he’ll be the one they all have to beat. His owners have a great record in this race and this race has been the plan all season. Lower in the weight this year too. Has a big chance and is value at 20/1.

Prediction:
1st: Alvarado
2nd: Spring Heeled
3rd: Chance Du Roy
4th: Wyck Hill
5th: Soll
Hits: 439

okidoki987

Predictions for tomorrow.

Hills are only going 4 places in the shops in UK so will go Best prices probably the top 5 in the betting from 8.30am.
Expecting someone to go big on a couple of fancied horses early in the morning.
Betfred will enhance a couple after 10am and price matched by Bet365.
Shutthefrontdoor will open tomorrow a bigger price but will SP a lot lower due to GP across the board as most of the one time punters will be backing him (big liabilities).

Slattsy

Slattsy wrote: »

There's only one winner lads.

Told yous.

Shemale

Slattsy wrote: »

Told yous.

Yous? Surely you mean ewes?