General Elections. The Constituency of Tipperary

Xenophile

Fall out or is it fall in from the 2016 Election.

Sunday Business Post first carried the story. Did Lowry do secret deals with Kenny one of which was to fund a new facility at South Tipperary General Hospital.

Covered extensively by the media since first on the Marian Finucan show on Sunday morning which moved me to pen this email to the show.

Dear Marian ,

I always enjoy your show , however on yesterday's show a lady contributor kept banging on about improvements to be made to South Tipperary General Hospital.

It was obvious that she had no grasp of the facts and just wanted to air a gripe. This is the danger with commenting on newspaper reports without being in possession of the facts.

Please refer her to the interview given by Prof. Paud O'Regan of the said hospital to Sean O'Rourke on today's programme.

Yours etc.

O 'Regan stated that from his long experience he had found out that the only way of getting things done was through a TD who supported the Government.

Mattie was speaking to Morning Ireland was not one bit pleased about Lowry's solo run.

O 'Regan pointed out that the two Clonmel based TD's voted against Kenny for Taoiseach.

I think you can expect Lowry to run a candidate in Clonmel in the next Local Election.

F34

Mattie sounded like a child that didn't get his way this morning. Rather than put on a united front for the hospital all he did was take snide swipes at Lowry.

I'm of the opinion that Lowry should most likely be in prison for the payments he's received so I'm not a fan but he seems to be the only one actually getting things done in the county.

Interesting to note that mattie is in Rome at the minute at a conference for Catholic legislators it angers me to think of my tax money being used for such a purpose.

Xenophile

F34 wrote: »

Interesting to note that mattie is in Rome at the minute at a conference for Catholic legislators it angers me to think of my tax money being used for such a purpose.

Surely the tax payer is not paying for this ?

F34

Xenophile wrote: »

Surely the tax payer is not paying for this ?

His salary is paid by the taxpayer and no doubt it will be put down as expenses

expectationlost

Reported expenditure met from public funds

Appendix 1 - Tables - Standards in Public Office Commission

this list usually includes TDs who use their offices to campaign from, and they have to reimburse the costs, that may include printed letters/leaflets

but I spotted a unfamiliar name Siobhan Ambrose, who is an FF councilllor https://www.fiannafail.ie/people/cllr-siobhan-ambrose/

Reported expenditure met
from public funds




Tipperary
Ms Siobhán Ambrose
€4,700.00

her expenses statement list two invoices for 'Munster Advertising' under Posters and under Other Election material in the from public funds section
http://www.sipo.gov.ie/en/Reports/Election-Reports/D%C3%A1il-General-Election-26-February-2016/EES-Candidates-A-B.pdf see page 52/53

what was that? did she use her councillors expenses to advertise herself as councillor and candidate, and pay it back later

something to do with roadside electronic displays http://www.munsteradvertising.com/ ? or maybe these posters https://twitter.com/Siobhan_Ambrose/status/699896590207709184

whats the story here? thats a lot of money to spend originally from public funds of councillor even if its reimbursed.


she declared 'small' donations she didn't have to http://www.sipo.gov.ie/en/Reports/Election-Reports/D%C3%A1il-General-Election-26-February-2016/DS-Unsuccessful-Candidates-A-B.pdf

Xenophile

Michael Lowry T.D. has today publicly declared that he will vote for Leo Varadkar as Taoiseach,

I have no doubt that Mattie will vote against him as will Seamus Healy.

Lowry has stated that he has already had discussions with Varadkar on the status, and in particular the overcrowding issue at Clonmel Hospital.

Could these two Independent T.D.s at least abstain from the vote.

Wrongway1985

Mattie will vote against him because he's gay

touts

Lowry has done nothing for Clonmel or anywhere south of Turles. That said Mattie and Healy have done little more. Kelly and Cahill haven't set foot in the south. There is a very strong North South divide and the South has lost out with no real representation. The constituency needs to be split again but that won't happen as Leo will be looking to increase the seats in Dublin not the rural constituencies.

That said with Leo doubtless tempted to go for an early election is it time to play fantasy election line up again. Who is likely to run.

I assume the sitting TDs will all run. The only possible exception to that is Healy. He is looking shook these days but there still isn't an alternative candidate from his little party. If he runs he will probably just keep his seat as he is the only real left wing candidate. But does he really want it any more. He might just throw his hat at it and let his squabbling set of Cllrs consume each other.

Lowry will run and top the poll. God forgive us because Ireland never will.

Mattie will run and probably hold his seat. Lots of people wrote him off last time but he got in comfortably. Since then he has kept things ticking over and my bet is he will hold on especially as he has most of the old FF vote in the south. He is also the only real representative in the South with Healy in decline.

Cahill looks to be the main and possibly only FF candidate. I hear if they run a second candidate it will be someone from the southern end so Smith is basically gone as long as Cahill is there. Ambrose is the one in that southern slot now but she didn't come close this last time. There are a few cllrs sniffing around (Goldsboro etc) but they have less public profile and less chance than Ambrose. Ambrose could get the nod again in the hope she is in Clonmel to capitalise when Healy and Mattie eventually retire. I'd say Cahill will hold his seat especially now Smith is gone. I wouldn't be surprised to see a one candidate strategy where FF let Cahill campaign directly to the farmers of the South.

Kelly will run and will probably hold his seat as the best of a bad lot. His absence from the media can only help him given his shall we say personality flaws.

FG will hope to regain a seat but who knows who they will run. I see Hayes is still popping up now and again but if he is the best they have then they are in serious trouble. Marie Murphy will probably want to run again but someone needs to pull her to one side and have a quite chat to her about the harsh realities of politics. Maybe someone like Michael Murphy could get the nod but they are not spoiled for choice. My bet is they could run just one candidate and even with a Leo bounce they won't take a seat.

We'll have the usual set of no hope deposit losing fodder from Sinn Fein, the Greens etc.

So my prediction is

Lowry
Mattie
Kelly
Cahill
Healy/Hayes battling for the second southern and last overall seat.

So basically not much change more because there is no real alternative to the poor lineup of incumbants. Only old age, illness or accidents are going to change things.

The Lost Sheep

touts wrote: »

Lowry has done nothing for Clonmel or anywhere south of Turles. That said Mattie and Healy have done little more. Kelly and Cahill haven't set foot in the south. There is a very strong North South divide and the South has lost out with no real representation. The constituency needs to be split again but that won't happen as Leo will be looking to increase the seats in Dublin not the rural constituencies.

That said with Leo doubtless tempted to go for an early election is it time to play fantasy election line up again. Who is likely to run.

I assume the sitting TDs will all run. The only possible exception to that is Healy. He is looking shook these days but there still isn't an alternative candidate from his little party. If he runs he will probably just keep his seat as he is the only real left wing candidate. But does he really want it any more. He might just throw his hat at it and let his squabbling set of Cllrs consume each other.

Lowry will run and top the poll. God forgive us because Ireland never will.

Mattie will run and probably hold his seat. Lots of people wrote him off last time but he got in comfortably. Since then he has kept things ticking over and my bet is he will hold on especially as he has most of the old FF vote in the south. He is also the only real representative in the South with Healy in decline.

Cahill looks to be the main and possibly only FF candidate. I hear if they run a second candidate it will be someone from the southern end so Smith is basically gone as long as Cahill is there. Ambrose is the one in that southern slot now but she didn't come close this last time. There are a few cllrs sniffing around (Goldsboro etc) but they have less public profile and less chance than Ambrose. Ambrose could get the nod again in the hope she is in Clonmel to capitalise when Healy and Mattie eventually retire. I'd say Cahill will hold his seat especially now Smith is gone. I wouldn't be surprised to see a one candidate strategy where FF let Cahill campaign directly to the farmers of the South.

Kelly will run and will probably hold his seat as the best of a bad lot. His absence from the media can only help him given his shall we say personality flaws.

FG will hope to regain a seat but who knows who they will run. I see Hayes is still popping up now and again but if he is the best they have then they are in serious trouble. Marie Murphy will probably want to run again but someone needs to pull her to one side and have a quite chat to her about the harsh realities of politics. Maybe someone like Michael Murphy could get the nod but they are not spoiled for choice. My bet is they could run just one candidate and even with a Leo bounce they won't take a seat.

We'll have the usual set of no hope deposit losing fodder from Sinn Fein, the Greens etc.

So my prediction is

Lowry
Mattie
Kelly
Cahill
Healy/Hayes battling for the second southern and last overall seat.

So basically not much change more because there is no real alternative to the poor lineup of incumbants. Only old age, illness or accidents are going to change things.

The County wont be split into two constituencies as the population isnt there for it to be. You only need 5 tds for the entire county but would need 6 if you split the county and we dont need 6 tds for the entire county.
Disagree with your views on Kelly/Hayes but totally agree on who would likely get elected.

Xenophile

Xenophile wrote: »

Michael Lowry T.D. has today publicly declared that he will vote for Leo Varadkar as Taoiseach,

I have no doubt that Mattie will vote against him as will Seamus Healy.

Lowry has stated that he has already had discussions with Varadkar on the status, and in particular the overcrowding issue at Clonmel Hospital.

Could these two Independent T.D.s at least abstain from the vote.

Lowry was on the radio last August,talking about a patient hotel for south tipp general,and saying it would be ready by the end of the year..He was talking through his sitting down part...Not much point asking Healy and McGrath to abstain on this forum,if they dont read boards.ie..It might be best to make two phone calls,and tell them..They are all a shower of wasters anyway:mad:

realdanbreen

Wrongway1985 wrote: »

Mattie will vote against him because he's gay

Oh, so Mattie is gay!

Wrongway1985

realdanbreen wrote: »

Oh, so Mattie is gay!

Not at at all married with kids for donkeys! Mattie is from backwards Ireland and isn't built for 2017 at all. Mattie took an opposing stance on the Same sex marriage referendum the time and would feels strongly on abortion something which is likely a referendum will proposed under Leo so of course just another reason why for Mattie it will surely be no for him.

*(Not to say he couldn't vote for him sexuality aside of course,going by some of the views he aired in the media unlikely)

touts

Wrongway1985 wrote: »

Not at at all married with kids for donkeys! Mattie is from backwards Ireland and isn't built for 2017 at all. Mattie took an opposing stance on the Same sex marriage referendum the time and would feels strongly on abortion something which is likely a referendum will proposed under Leo so of course just another reason why for Mattie it will surely be no for him.

*(Not to say he couldn't vote for him sexuality aside of course,going by some of the views he aired in the media unlikely)

Mattie takes an opposing stance on whatever will get him into the media. I don't think the guy has strong convictions about anything really he's just a master of identifying a media niche and filling it.

digzy

touts wrote: »

Mattie takes an opposing stance on whatever will get him into the media. I don't think the guy has strong convictions about anything really he's just a master of identifying a media niche and filling it.

Precisely.....like the rest of them.
I doubt there's too many people in the country gay or straight bothered about Leo's sexuality. I'm certain no politician cares. Even if they did it'd be suicide to go public on it.

digzy

touts wrote: »

Mattie takes an opposing stance on whatever will get him into the media. I don't think the guy has strong convictions about anything really he's just a master of identifying a media niche and filling it.

Precisely.....like the rest of them.
I doubt there's too many people in the country gay or straight bothered about Leo's sexuality. I'm certain no politician cares. Even if they did it'd be suicide to go public on it.

jem

touts wrote: »

I'd say Cahill will hold his seat especially now Smith is gone. I wouldn't be surprised to see a one candidate strategy where FF let Cahill campaign directly to the farmers of the South.

Wouldn't rule Smith out, he hasn't gone away.

jem

http://www.tipperarystar.ie/news/local-news/255969/defiant-cllr-morris-says-he-will-not-allow-name-be-blackened.html
Morris kicked out of Shin Fein Tipperary.

digzy

What happened....allegedly of course!

Spirit of 67

Ok , "Cllr Morris pointed out that since he first ran for election, he had brought the party's vote in Tipperary up from 400 votes to what it stands at now". Lies , when he first ran he got 400 votes in the Nenagh UDC vote in 2004 , Ella O`Dwyer got 850+ in the Nenagh Newport area County Council Election on the same day and David Doran got about 300 in the Thurles UDC election at that time ! Can`t recall if other Tipp areas ran Shinners in 2004 but clearly the Partys vote when he first ran was way more than 400 !

ibFoxer

Rumour going that the areas of Tipp that were made part of the Offaly constituency are coming home, anyone able to confirm?

snowflaker

ibFoxer wrote: »

Rumour going that the areas of Tipp that were made part of the Offaly constituency are coming home, anyone able to confirm?

Yes they will be, but I think it will lose parts to Limerick

The county of Clare should form a 4 seat constituency. The City and County of Limerick should form the 3 seat constituency of Limerick County and the 4 seat Limerick City constituency which should include some population from county Tipperary. The rest of county Tipperary (including the part of county Tipperary that is in the existing Offaly constituency) should form a 5 seat constituency.

touts

ibFoxer wrote: »

Rumour going that the areas of Tipp that were made part of the Offaly constituency are coming home, anyone able to confirm?

Only way that will happen is if they split the constituency again.

ibFoxer

snowflaker wrote: »

Yes they will be, but I think it will lose parts to Limerick

The county of Clare should form a 4 seat constituency. The City and County of Limerick should form the 3 seat constituency of Limerick County and the 4 seat Limerick City constituency which should include some population from county Tipperary. The rest of county Tipperary (including the part of county Tipperary that is in the existing Offaly constituency) should form a 5 seat constituency.

Any idea what parts will be part of Limerick?

snowflaker

ibFoxer wrote: »

Any idea what parts will be part of Limerick?

http://www.constituency-commission.ie


There is a PDF which might give a more detailed breakdown

Spirit of 67

ibFoxer wrote: »

Any idea what parts will be part of Limerick?

Well . if you bothered to look at a Map it`s obviously Newport/Birdhill and surrounds :rolleyes: !

snowflaker

Castleconnell and surruronds it looks like

ibFoxer

Spirit of 67 wrote: »

Well . if you bothered to look at a Map it`s obviously Newport/Birdhill and surrounds :rolleyes: !

I suppose they looked at maps when they decided to move Terryglass, Kilbarron and Borrisokane to Offaly, because, ya know, they are right beside it :rolleyes:

I'm perfectly aware of where is beside where on a map, but logic doesn't always dictate reason.

Spirit of 67

ibFoxer wrote: »

I suppose they looked at maps when they decided to move Terryglass, Kilbarron and Borrisokane to Offaly, because, ya know, they are right beside it :rolleyes:

I'm perfectly aware of where is beside where on a map, but logic doesn't always dictate reason.

So do you reckon Emly or Cappawhite will be part of the Limerick City Constituency ?

Everything a couple of miles North of Nenagh went to Offaly , the fact that the areas you mentioned aren`t on the border is neither here nor there , they moved that area to make up the numbers as the total area is nearer to Offaly ! It`s only logical that Newport/Birdhill will be the area to go to Limerick City , if you just gave it a little thought !

ibFoxer

Spirit of 67 wrote: »

So do you reckon Emly or Cappawhite will be part of the Limerick City Constituency ?

Everything a couple of miles North of Nenagh went to Offaly , the fact that the areas you mentioned aren`t on the border is neither here nor there , they moved that area to make up the numbers as the total area is nearer to Offaly ! It`s only logical that Newport/Birdhill will be the area to go to Limerick City , if you just gave it a little thought !

So if everything a few miles north of Nenagh back into Lower Ormond and so on went to Offaly, then it stands to reason that everything in the other direction is fair game, so by that reasoning i have no need to, as you suggested, look at a map.

Honestly, however, i had assumed Newport, and probably Birdhill, but i was asking for a little further clarification from snowflaker (or anyone else) who seemed to be well versed, given how i had only heard the news a short while before posting. If you feel that justifies you making me out to be an idiot, then feel free. But, at least to me, you are coming off as awfully pretentious.

Spirit of 67

ibFoxer wrote: »

So if everything a few miles north of Nenagh back into Lower Ormond and so on went to Offaly, then it stands to reason that everything in the other direction is fair game, so by that reasoning i have no need to, as you suggested, look at a map.

Honestly, however, i had assumed Newport, and probably Birdhill, but i was asking for a little further clarification from snowflake (or anyone else) who seemed to be well versed, given how i had only heard the news a short while before posting. If you feel that justifies you making me out to be an idiot, then feel free. But, at least to me, you are coming off as awfully pretentious.